Thursday, December 26, 2013

Which would be worse. Economic collapse or long lasting malaise?


via The Washington Examiner.
A top financial advisor, worried that Obamacare, the NSA spying scandal and spiraling national debt is increasing the chances for a fiscal and social disaster, is recommending that Americans prepare a “bug-out bag” that includes food, a gun and ammo to help them stay alive.
David John Marotta, a Wall Street expert and financial advisor andForbes contributor, said in a note to investors, “Firearms are the last item on the list, but they are on the list. There are some terrible people in this world. And you are safer when your trusted neighbors have firearms.”
His memo is part of a series addressing the potential for a “financial apocalypse.” His view, however, is that the problems plaguing the country won't result in armageddon. “There is the possibility of a precipitous decline, although a long and drawn out malaise is much more likely,” said the Charlottesville, Va.-based president of Marotta Wealth Management.
This story is burning up parts of the social media.

I think everyone is missing the real scary (at least to me) part of this story.  An economic meltdown would be harsh.  It would catch many by surprise and it would jolt the Federal government to deal with many issues they're unwilling to face up to today.

Entitlements (all of them, even to the elderly and poor).  Budget deficits.  A jacked up trade policy etc...

A meltdown of the economy would focus everyone on real problems instead of the nonsense that we see today.  But what if we got hit with a long lasting malaise instead?  How would our population and politicians react to that?

I don't know and quite honestly that is the scarier proposition. 

15 comments :

  1. i have a few bags packed. one is in a pelican case that fits well in the back of our SUV, has water(5 days), ways to purify water, food(MRE's enough for 5 days), fire starters, a bow with 12 arrows (about 50 arrow heads), batteries, a few flashlights, a hand crank radio/flashlight, fishing pole, pounco liners, a field tent, and other items (squad first aid kit with extras, ammo for 9mm, .22 and 12gauge all my go too's based of ammo thats easy to find)

    our "kit" you could say was started with Hurrican prep and just slightly grew. i try not to be crazy about this but eh? I think for me, as a Marine, im more worried about my family when i get called up to do something and they are left unattended.

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  2. forget the bug out bag and hedge you portfolio with gold if your really concerned. My prediction is the crazies that head for the hills will do it for about 2-3 weeks and the rest of us will take their jobs while they are gone thereby becoming the the new power set.....one quack at a time.

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  3. I've tried thinking of what may happen in the slow economic death and it is scary. I think the country would actually come together under a quick collapse, but a slow collapse would divide the country much further.
    The only question is would we divide by politics, race, or by those that still had jobs vs those that didn't.

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  4. Keith: "If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck it's a sitting duck and will make a fine duck dinner"
    The crazies will be the ones in the city, looking for those who have jobs and gold portfolio's to steal, besides which when the infrastructure you depend on to to keep you in power will be destroyed or corrupt enough to enslave you so your job becomes more slavery than a career.
    With a bang or with a whimper either way inner city folks need to bug out those places become jungles.
    Outer ring and suburbs need to either dig in deep in a hide type shelter or bug out also because the jungle will push out refugees and raiders.
    Rural folks will do best staying in place and banding together with a cohesive militia. Such as the new armed citizen police forces are doing in Oregon.
    Each firearm container (gun case individual) such as a small suitcase type should carry the firearm, a way to make fire, paracord, a multitool/Swiss Army, A sheath knife suitable to use as a field knife (my favorite is a Buck 602 C) a small metal canteen and cup and water purification device.
    Don't forget the spare parts and cleaning kit. Ammo should be adequate amounts but don't overdo it.
    A small first aid kit should also be included.
    A bugout Bubba should be able to grab just that case and be able to survive until he can come into more safer and more civilized areas.
    A slow collapse just requires endurance and patience until people get tired of the drama and doing without, kick out the idiot/stupid liberal folks in charge who engineered the collapse and begin to rebuild.

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  5. Tony: Study the slow collapse leading up to the depression, the depression and extrapolate modern times and find the answer.
    Regions and States will fill in the vacuum from a central government perhaps at odds with and at war with those gov types.
    An example would be an alignment of the southern states from South Carolina across to Texas forming a regional power that has close ties with Mexico, Cuba and the Caribbean nations allied against the whats left of Obamaca of the Northern states. West coast states would align perhaps with Hawaii and Japan as a group. Alaska would just drill and pump oil get rich and possibly become the center of any reborn United States. The inner cities, Chicago, NYC those places will turn into hellholes of riots and martial law.

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    Replies
    1. Ahh, the romance and ill-effects of underdone potatoes.
      Every generation 'discovers' revolutions, apocalypses, upheaval and yadayada...
      Along with certain commercial opportunities.
      In my modest life-time alone I've been advised on a rather rich range of disasters - none of which came true.

      There are a few real ones in the works, with the FEMA flood-zone map upwards, USN raising piers, and no civil-engineering budget large enough anywhere... Slow-motion but quantifiable. |

      Of course, there is none of the romance of arrows-to-tips-ratii, MREs-to-belly-girth coefficients, nor the sweet abandon of giddily hoping for major centers of commerce and culture to go down in mayhem - if ever, they'd go well after certain southern states - nor the odd mix of naivete and imagination on new alliances... AK might find itself a subsidiary of PLAN-Inc.

      Frack, I just crashed my Nostradamus-App....

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    2. Aye, it's basically flip a coin three times and decide which goes tits up first, fast or slow.
      Many inner cities would make fine Castles for some Mayor to run just wall off the entrances and exits as was done in the Walking dead Woodbury writ large, hell NYC even has a built is moat!
      Alaska has the distinction of being remote and hazardous year round to match and as Tina Fey said in her infamous Sarah Palin line, "I can see Russia from my back porch.
      Myself being in the 55-65 age range I've seen life come and go, from duck and cover to duck dynasty so my Nostradamus app has crashed several times.
      Planning for an apocalypse means the apocalypse may be very unlike the one planned for.
      BOHICA!

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  6. That guy is just driving readers to his site by scaring the shit out of them. His actual advice is just more of the same free-marketeer garbage. I am all for people being prepared for disaster/calamity and having provisions and location to survive. This guy, however, is just selling his services and using economic collapse as a sales gimmick.

    "Unless civilization ceases entirely, publicly traded companies will continue to have assets which generate value. And while I wouldn't want to be holding Zimbabwe dollars, I would not mind holding shares in a productive company. And I especially would not mind holding shares in companies in countries which are low in debt and deficit and high in economic freedom "

    If there is a collapse, do you think shares in a Singaporean company is going to do you any good? gold and silver isn't valuable to him? What about lead as in bullets? I call bullshit on him.

    Bugging out, preparedness and economic collapse are all worthy topics, but not because this guy.









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  7. "Financial system" is outlived itself, all last "crises" where nothing more than speculative "financial" play.

    This system was already dead in the beginning of XX century, only WWII delayed "financial system" eradication for another century.

    The question is will it be destroyed relatively peacefully and new kind of economy would emerge, or "finances" would spark another world war to play with "finances" some more.

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    Replies
    1. Even barter is a financial system of a sorts. Based on real items and not over printed funny money.
      Gold? That's the stuff people are killed to obtain.

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  8. A man with a Bug Out Bag is not a survivor, he is a refugee.

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    1. As my Old Nam vet Gunny used to say, "There it fucking is" Gunny bless his heart was never one to mince words.
      A bugouter is after all just another displaced person and refugee.

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  9. I plan on awaiting the impending doom well stocked with canned soup, ammo and water purification also a well stocked supply of shit paper.
    I'll ad lib the rest.

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  10. lol just keep going to work and not shooting people while the shit's not hitting the fan and you'll be all right.

    I keep a lot of nonperishable food staples at the house...but I make sure they are things I actually rotate,cook, and eat before they expire. I hate the idea of people dying of famine while I'm hording like a bastard.
    To me that is a contingency for a national crisis like weather, germ outbreak or something else that could happen without warning. Really of all the gun collectors and "when the shit hits the fan people" what percentage of them actually have an above average food supply.
    If I lived at a higher elevation a fallout shelter would be a good idea. but it could be used as a safe room in a tornado...if it didn't fill up with water like most of the old ones.

    You can believe in the total fall of the government or our society if you really want to, but I cant go that route. I have to believe in America. An American is what I am. With out american society, good will toward men and the perseverance over disaster I don't really see much point in being the last man standing. LOL biggest threat to mankind is birth control.

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