Thanks for the link Slowman!
via Ming Pao Daily.
Even more amazing is the fact that not only are they openly predicting a war over the disputed islands but that they're changing their game plan. Google Translate leaves alot to be desired but it appears that they're aiming for an air war! Why is that important?
The Navy is about to start deploying only one carrier at a time to each ocean (I assume) and the USAF is already cutting fighter/attack squadrons to pay for the F-35.
This five year time span will be the sweet spot in preparations. Just long enough for the cuts to have really sunk in, but not so late as to allow a dimwitted Pentagon and State Dept to realize the danger and start reversing the decay.
Deterrence works only as long as you have a credible force.
We're rapidly approaching a point where we don't.
 |
| pic via AUSAirpower.net |
Ming Pao News] Sino-Japanese relations has been deadlocked for more than a year, according to military experts analyze reports, information, etc., come to China has developed a new version of the Japanese war plan, a war against Japan will be concluded within five years. But diplomatic mainland scholars believe that Japan is in kind, the system is doing preparations for war, but the battle is still unknown whether the next day.China is gearing up for war. Too many war drums are being pounded for anything else to be plausible.
Huang said the air defense zone is part of the operational plan
Macau International Military President Huang said, the new version of the PLA war plan against Japan last May has been completed, the East China Sea is one of the air defense identification zone ring. Huang said that public information, the year before President Xi Jinping has been investigated since the South Sea Fleet and other naval forces to take over two months later visited the Air Force base in Gansu ASDC Airport workout, naval power to make bad habits disappointed, but confidence in learning than the Air Force large, so the development of operational plans, the main naval war against Japan had dominated the Air Force to consider. After the Sino-Japanese friction increasing air and air defense identification zone is in this context was born. Huang believes that once the Sino-Japanese war, the United States will be involved in, but the official media, the generals publicly visible speech, the Chinese lack of preparation for the U.S. intervention, the United States will not hold naive intervention.
Scholars refer to the war between the two countries without diplomatic intention
For Huang's view, deputy director of the Center for Japanese Studies Diplomatic Academy Zhou Yongsheng that the Japanese military preparations known, including the establishment of specialized units Diaoyu Islands, increased military spending and other physical preparations, including preparations such as liberalized regime three principles of arms exports. But he believes that the Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty and so there are constraints, there is no war going to look at both sides.
Even more amazing is the fact that not only are they openly predicting a war over the disputed islands but that they're changing their game plan. Google Translate leaves alot to be desired but it appears that they're aiming for an air war! Why is that important?
The Navy is about to start deploying only one carrier at a time to each ocean (I assume) and the USAF is already cutting fighter/attack squadrons to pay for the F-35.
This five year time span will be the sweet spot in preparations. Just long enough for the cuts to have really sunk in, but not so late as to allow a dimwitted Pentagon and State Dept to realize the danger and start reversing the decay.
Deterrence works only as long as you have a credible force.
We're rapidly approaching a point where we don't.
This adds to the "fun":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/china-japan-conflict-could-lead-to-war-2014-1
Then there is this:
ReplyDelete---"The lead article the Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times on Tuesday contained an alarming call for a declaration of war against Vietnam and Philippines, two nations that in recent weeks launched the loudest protests against China’s sweeping maritime sovereignty claims over the South China Sea.
The fiery rhetoric of the article states that “the South China Sea is the best place for China to wage wars” because “of the more than 1,000 oil rigs there, none belongs to China; of the four airfields in the Spratly Islands, none belongs to China; once a war is declared, the South China Sea will be a sea of fire [with burning oil rigs]. Who will suffer the most from a war? Once a war starts there, the Western oil companies will flee the area, who will suffer the most?”
The article further calculates that “the wars should be focused on striking the Philippines and Vietnam, the two noisiest troublemakers, to achieve the effect of killing one chicken to scare the monkeys.”"---
Source: -Miles Yu, "China Demands War", 28 Sep 2011, Washington Times
They will try to challenge the current status quo but China knows that before they can do that, they need not only to be geared for war against a possible Alliance between their "friends", but they also need to ensure that the other players in the area don't make out of this a chance to run for their own interests.
ReplyDeleteIt's a very volatile region. The US presence is not the only problem the Chinese are facing. They still have to deal with India, which is no small business, and they should also keep an eye on Russia, who could easily change their stance, if it's in their interest. Still, this could be not enough as a deterrent, so prepare for the worst case scenario!
The Chinese are flexing their muscles and flooding the media with scenarios. To what end, we'll have to wait, and why not, prepare for.
PS: And speaking of scenarios, recently, battled out the single campaign in Battlefield 4. I was surprised how quickly an US naval group was wiped out but I Chinese missile attack. Sure, there war some loose issues there, but this still make you think.
In 5 years? From my point of view, the more time the CCP delay the PLA invasion and threaten with war the more likely we pacifist japanese are going to ream and become a "normal" country. Let me make a simple example by adapting Rand's scenario of PLAAF vs USAF on an invasion of Taiwan to a PLAAF vs JASDF in an invasion of the Senkaku islands. If the invasion happen today and the CCP don't allow the PLA attack SDF military bases in Okinawa for reduce the chance of an US military intervention and use only assets already in the area for get absolute surprise. Then is 180 PLAAF fighters (SU-27, SU-30, J-10 and J-11) from the Nanjing Military Region vs 20 JASDF fighters (F-15J) from the Naha base in Okinawa. An F-15 can be armed with 8 AMRAAM, we japanese like to arm our F-15j with our AESA radar guided AAM-4b because it reduce the time needed for lock the targets, fire all the missiles and run away. So we can fire 160 missiles and run before the chinese can fire their PL-12 missiles that have a shorter range. If everything goes as planned 160 chinese fighters explode in the air and 40 japanese fighters escape without even a single scratch in the paint. Even so PLAAF won a Pyrrhic victory because now control the air until the F-15js reload or reinforcements from other bases arrive. The X survivors (X = 20 + any AAM-4b that missed the target) plus Y bombers have a chance to attack any MSDF's ASW helicopter carrier + escort destroyers and frigates in the area. If the CCP can't diplomatically end the war fast after land troops in the islands, the PLAAF high attrition rates will force them to attack Okinawa befoRe run out aircrafts increasing the risk of an US intervention, but the next battles are beyond the scope of this scenario.
ReplyDeleteI think that it make sense take time for improve their chance and minimize their loses. The problem are:
1 - The Abe administration already plan to double the number of F-15J in Naha base in the next 5 years for improve the odds of sweep the PLAAF fighters and bombers in the area in the first battle.
2 - The CCP saying "PLA IS going to attack Japan in 5 years" sounds pretty dumb. If you really want to attack someone strong then you try to keep it secret right? If the CCP want to get more PLAAF pilots killed, just keep talking.
mareo2
Delete> Then is 180 PLAAF fighters (SU-27, SU-30, J-10 and J-11) from the Nanjing Military Region vs 20 JASDF fighters (F-15J) from the Naha base in Okinawa.
So that's a 9:1 ratio. Not even the F-22 has a chance in that ratio..
> An F-15 can be armed with 8 AMRAAM
But not the F-15J which only use Sparrow and AAM-4 on certain upgraded units.
> So we can fire 160 missiles and run before the chinese can fire their PL-12 missiles that have a shorter range. If everything goes as planned 160 chinese fighters explode in the air and 40 japanese fighters escape without even a single scratch in the paint.
Radar guided A2A missiles have a hit ratio of less than 50%, more realistically 20% against a hard manuvering target with active EW. This is why the USAF launches two AMRAAMs agaisnt a target to improve the kill probability. The fighters then rapidly close in on a WVR infrared missile combat merge, in which an F-22 could be shot down by a J-10 because there is no stealth against IR missiles and IR missiles have a hit rate of 90%.
> The CCP saying "PLA IS going to attack Japan in 5 years" sounds pretty dumb. If you really want to attack someone strong then you try to keep it secret right?
It doesn't have to be kept a secret because everyone knows that China will do it when ready.
> If the CCP want to get more PLAAF pilots killed, just keep talking.
The PLAAF doesn't care; the present day PLAAF is like the Imperial Japanese Army's Air Division, where pilots are treated as expendable as long as the goal is achieved. Whatever PLAAF loses today, they will recover faster than the Japanese tomorrow..
Slowman, I think you are forgetting about the F-22s 22 degree sustained turn rate and it's nice heat dampening thrust vectoring nozzles.
DeleteOh, and flares have gotten better and better.
Not to say than an F-22 cannot be shot down, but it will have IR guided missiles too, and Chinese ECM systems are roughly 1-2 generations behind ours, as are Chinese radars.
lastly, Chinese pilot training, while improving, is not nearly as good as Western training, and they have ZERO combat vets. The Chinese version of Red Flag is less than 5 years old as well.
check out the youtube video Su30 MKI at red flag
David McSpadden
DeleteModern IR missiles pick up friction heat from the skin of a jet flying in a transonic speed, so yes, IR missiles can be launched against a target flying in head on.
This is why even the F-22 can be defeated if there are enough surviving enemy fighters to achieve a WVR merge. This is why I said even the F-22 would see a bloodbath if the ratio was 9:1.
have to agree with Slowman on this one. WVR is said by many aviation experts to be mutually assured destruction because IR missiles are so good these days. in this area even the might F-22 is vulnerable. i don't know what USAF tactics for the plane are, but even they have to acknowledge that its vulnerable in this area.
DeleteIn that case, there is no need for fighter jets to maneuver at all if IR missiles are that good. A straight winged 500 MPH jet loaded to the gills with AIM-9Xs or Python 5s should take care of everything.
DeleteSlowman, I know that any IR missile post 1970s are All-Aspect. However, being all aspect doesn't mean you get an automatic 90%+ kill probability. As I said, flares, maneuvering, and a wonderful little invention called DC-IR, where an IR laser frys the seeker of an IR guided missile will lower than 90% figure quite a bit.
Many "aviation experts' have been dead wrong before. They were the same fools saying in the early 1960s that a gun isn't needed as our new wiz-bang radar and IR guided missiles "don't miss".
Both radar and IR guided missiles have gotten a helluva lot better since, as have IR countermeasure and ECM systems.
Also, my pilot training stuff wasn't addressed.
Off Topic, but, sounds like we MIGHT be a little better off in the GEN 5 fighter game.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/russia-can-t-deliver-on-fifth-generation-fighter-aircraft-iaf-114012100059_1.html
hehehe, true.
DeleteThe T-50 doesn't even have divertless supersonic intakes, making those nice spinning engines light up on radar.
And those supposed new engine are NOWHERE to be seen, until 2020 or so.
The good thing is that the F-22 will finally be exported to Japan and other top tier allies once Japan loses DIaoyu Islands to China. But not until then.
ReplyDeleteThe current administration is at war with United States citizens and the Constitution.
ReplyDeleteThese clowns do not actually plan on fighting any other war until the current war with American's is concluded.
Hillary will preside over the end of the United States of America when she wins by a landslide due to voter fraud.
This nation is on the path to destruction but it won't be by China.
If Japan has not built or assembled some nuclear weapons they sure do need to start.
The US will NOT be there for Japan, nor South Korea under Hillary or Obama.
I see a neutral stance if not a Co-belligerent stance.
"What difference does it make" will become the nations moral compass and watch word.
Ha Ha Ha, Indians are screwed. The Rafale price doubled in dollar term and now they are looking at a $30 billion bill to obtain 126 Rafales! http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-dna-exclusive-100-price-escalation-on-rafale-fighter-aircraft-to-rs-175-lakh-crore-likely-to-dent-iaf-s-strike-capability-1957107
ReplyDeleteRIP Rafale
RIP Typhoon
Hello Gripen, the last European fighter standing
Whoever runs India's corrupt and probably retarded DRDO, HAL, and the like should be shot, as should their assistants.
DeleteAll this pain could have been avoided if they had just signed a damn contract back in 2011 or 2012.
The Tejas is pushing 15 YEARS late, and even then, it won't be feature complete until the Mk. 2 in 2017. Indigenous engine.. DEAD, Indigenous radar.. DEAD
And now the PAK-FA is getting shredded for being an unreliable Russian POS, by the Indian AF.
The Gripen, for all intents and purposes, is a Swedish F-16, with a smaller weapon load. Not a gigantic amount of export opportunities for that.
It has no thrust vectoring, no CFTs, and few integrated weapons, and a relatively short range. It also has the added handicap of Swedish arms control policy, so most buyers today in SE Asia and the Middle East will look elsewhere to nations that won't cut off their arms supplies on the whim of some Socialist bureaucrat in Stockholm.
In addition, the Gripen NG, with AESA and IRST (finally) won't fly until 2019 or so, and deliveries to the initial customer will not begin until 2023..... And those US F414s won't make exports any easier
At least the Rafale is combat proven.....
@ David McSpaddenMonday, January 27, 2014 5:53:00 PM
DeleteGripen NG is flying since 2008. With AESA since 2009. With IRST since 2013.
Pre-series production model Gripen E will fly in not so many months time.
Series deliveries of Gripen E will start 2018 with the MS21 system version.
Gripen is combat proven over Libya. More combat proven and interoperable than F-22A even. Sweden does not have plans to export to some countries but Brazil will be able to reach those markets.
Macau International Military President Huang said.....
ReplyDeleteHe who?
Good news for China. The USAF's pulling the plug on CAPES prorgam due to funding issues. The USAF F-16s will have service life extension but no capability enhancement. This would also screw Taiwan which must now either solely bear the cost of CAPES program, or more likely, ditch CAPES and join the F-16 upgrade program for the ROKAF. In either case, the USAF F-16 fleet would present no threat to China's advanced types in coming years, so that's one less problem that the PLAAF generals would have to deal with.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.defensenews.com/article/20140127/DEFREG/301270023/F-16-Upgrade-Dropped-From-US-Budget-Proposal-Sources-Say
THE JAPANESE MUST WITHDRAW ALL THEIR INVESTMENTS IN CHINA AND INVEST THE MONEY IN INDIA
ReplyDelete