via KT.
But the problem is that Seoul is expected to finalize the F-35 order this year, aiming for the first delivery of the stealth jet in 2018.Read the entire story here.
Since aging F-4s and F-5s are to retire soon, it would mean a big hole in Air Force’s fleet of fighter jets.
The Air Force, by some estimates, would be in need of 100 new fighters by 2020.
The current budget can secure only 40 F-35s with 8.3 trillion won ($7.8 billion) 60 F-X IIIs, but Lockheed says that amount could secure 52 or 53 F-35s.
Amid the growing concerns, European Aeronautic Defense and Security Company (EADS) and Boeing, both of which can meet the timeline, are proposing a split-buy.
“If I were the Korean Air Force, I would actually do a 20-40 split-buy. That way you give yourself a chance to assess the F-35s and you might also get 40 newer aircraft at a much better price,” said James Hardy, Asia-Pacific editor of IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly.
“The split-buy makes sense because there is still some uncertainty about the software development timeline of the F-35. Most of its advanced capabilities are only due to come with the Block 3F software, which isn’t likely to be deployed until 2017. Software has been perhaps the most challenging aspect of the F-35’s development thus far,” said Greg Waldron, Asia managing editor of FlightGlobal, an aviation and aerospace industry website.
The problem for Lockheed Martin, the USAF and the Marine Corps is that others will look at whats going on and wonder if they're actually making the right move.
I seriously doubt that S. Korea will buy 40 airplanes. My guess is that they're going to do something to mollify the Pentagon...promise to buy the plane in the future, but take care of their defense needs now. Eurofighter and Advanced F-15SK are probably still in the running to supply all 100 airplanes now. Lockheed Martin will probably have orders in the 2020-2030 timeframe wrapped up though.
This is part of the defense ministry "sponsored" anti F-35 publicity campaign "open season". While the content of this article is rather "tame", the attacks from left wing media are not, some of which make defense officials traitors and spies if they buy a jet that has to be maintained in and parts supplied by Japan. Those tracking international politics know the relations between Korea and Japan are at their worst in 20 years, and that buying into this "F-35" scheme would help Japan remilitarize. And surprisingly, the defense from right wing media is lacking this time.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the 120 jet shortage out of 430 required in the 2020s is real(The article doesn't count additional 20 jet shortage triggered by the purchase of 40 F-35s), and the ROKAF is trying to fill this with the cheapest means possible, bet it more F-16s, F-50s(The upgraded F-50 can be made to approach within 90% of the capability of an AESA upgraded F-16 Block 50), or Super Hornets.
EADS's trying to compete with cheap jets by offering a Typhoon lease deal, where something like 40~50 ex-European air force jets are leased and 40 are new build Block 25 jets.
If they don't want the parts from Japan get them from the US. whatever they get is going to be better than the F-5 F-5 lost to the F-16 for a reason.
ReplyDeleteIm agreeing with Janes. Korea has a lot of aircraft to buy so so going with a really expensive one isn;t the best way to go about it.
I got to break off from all the anti F-35 folks though and say that Korea needs to buy a couple dozen F-35s
They need a stealth fighter to move forward and if K-FX isn't ready then its kind of a bridge to that capability.
Korea-Japan relations though....really? Is North Korea not a big enough problem? Japan is constitutionally unable to attack anyone. Korea really needs to pick its battles.
Keith Turk Jr.
Delete> If they don't want the parts from Japan get them from the US.
It is quite more complicated than that. All countries that buy F-35s will have to sign a PBL contract with Lockheed, which will then price quote based on the lowest cost means of delivering that service; the service at the nearliest depot in Japan. If Korea cannot accept its F-35 parts being repaired in Japan, then it will be shipped to the US, at a higher cost and turnaround cycle. It's like having your Ferrari shipped to Italy for maintenance, instead of your local Ferrari dealer. All US F-35s in the region will be serviced in Japan too, and trying to make a separate arrangement is very costly in terms of both money and time..
This is why the Korean press is calling the purchase of F-35 a treason, and the defense ministry is actually urging the press to attack the F-35 and call them traitors so that they could in turn tell the US DoD negociators that "Look, we are being called traitors by our own press for buying the F-35, so can you cut us a deal to appease our public opinion?"
> Japan is constitutionally unable to attack anyone.
And Abe and the LDP is trying to change the constitution so that Japan can attack for whatever the reason. Abe already claims the right to attack anyone that attacks the US military even without the constitutional revision.
> Korea really needs to pick its battles.
The perceptions are very different over there, where everybody else see the other guys as grave security threats.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/10/30/national/62-of-south-koreans-regard-japan-as-a-military-threat-think-tank-poll/
62% of South Koreans regard Japan as a military threat: think tank poll
http://www.asianewsnet.net/China-still-biggest-military-threat-Japanese-poll--55053.html
China still 'biggest military threat', Japanese poll shows
Publication Date : 16-12-2013
Asked which countries will become a military threat to Japan, with multiple answers allowed, the largest number of Japanese respondents, 78 per cent, cited China. This was the second time in a row China was the top choice in a Yomiuri-Gallup poll.
The second-largest percentage of Japanese respondents, 74 per cent, chose North Korea, followed by South Korea with 45 per cent and Russia with 40 per cent. It was the first time in a Yomiuri-Gallup joint survey that Japanese respondents rated the military threat from South Korea as higher than that from Russia.
We can only hope that somehow, someway the Boeing lines are kept running. Having only one combat jet option for the entire Western World seems to me to be extremely risky. Sorry Eurofighter, Rafale I just don't consider you up to snuff way to many logistics/costs issues. Had that split not happened the resulting bigger production run might have made for a more viable option.
ReplyDeletesuffolkowner
DeleteWell, Saab Gripen E will be around until 2030 at the least. And the KFX will definitely be there by mid 2020s; KAI just announced the formation of the KFX division to handle the KFX program in its restructuring, meaning KAI got an assurance from the government that the project will go ahead. The wild card is TAI TFX(Which I still think is nothing more than a Gripen with Turkish subsystems). The Mitsubishi F-3 won't be ready until 2030s based on look of things.
As for Boeing, the only option left is to award the T-X contract to Boeing to keep Boeing's tactical jet division open.
Yeah I wasn't counting the Gripen which I think is a great little bird and probably adequate for most. To be honest what's wrong with the F16? LM probably does not want to keep that production line running in the worry that it will steal sales from the F35? The other projects KFX,TFX just seem like clones to me. The F16 and F15 just seem to me to be the pinnacle of fighter jet evolution. Why reinvent the wheel?
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