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The U.S. Navy is about to cut in half the number of aircraft carriers it keeps ready for combat. Starting in 2015, just two American flattops will be on station at any given time, down from three or four today.Axe put a happy face on this whole thing but a few points...
The change is spelled out in a presentation by Adm. Bill Gortney, head of Fleet Forces Command. The U.S. Naval Institute’s published the presentation on its Website on Jan. 24.
The new “Optimized Fleet Response Plan” represents an effort to standardize training, maintenance and overseas cruise schedules for the Navy’s 283 front-line warships, in particular the 10 nuclear-powered carriers.
The OFRP is also meant to save money and keep the Navy functioning under budget cuts mandated by the sequestration law. But to be clear, even after the change the Navy will still deploy more, bigger and better ships than any other maritime force in the world.
1. I predicted that China would achieve regional superiority by 2020. They're five years early.
2. If this is happening to the Carrier Force then its coming soon to amphibs. In this light the SPMAGTF-CR begin to make sense. It will still get torn apart if it even faces light opposition but it does answer the bell on what to do if amphibs don't get the same number of deployments but you still want forward presence.
3. In this light the US Navy suddenly has a SURPLUS of aircraft.
4. The F-35 is creating havoc across the board. Modernization is being deferred AND additional risk is being assumed.
5. This is the most idiotic decision that has been made so far. Forward presence is what the Navy is all about. This creates less options for policy makers. Instability will increase.
I'll make the call right now.
We will see a regional war that will involve a US ally in the next five years and we will not be able to properly assist them.
If I was an enemy of the United States and I sniffed in our direction -- all I could smell is pussy
Bonaparte has often made his boast, that our fleet would be worn out by keeping the sea, that his was kept in order, and increasing, by staying in port; but he now finds, I fancy, if emperors hear truth, that his fleet suffers more in a night, than ours in one year; however, thank God, the Toulon fleet is got in order again, and I hear the troops embarked, and I hope they will come out to sea in fine weather.- Lord Horatio Nelson in a letter to Admiral Cuthbert Collingwood
ReplyDeletewow! you just took me back to school with that quote. they pounded that quote in leadership about the importance of getting your men out to the field and actually doing their skill sets...some brave youngster would ask about wearing the men out and again, it was talked about how vital skills are lost unless practiced continuously....LIKE SEAMANSHIP!
Deleteif this continues for 4 years the Chinese will have better SEAMAN than we do...not better sailors but they'll have more experience operating on the high seas.
I would wager that the coasties probably have the best seamen. Alas there are a few things that are timeless, girls, whiskey, and training like you fight.
ReplyDeleteMan yall got to check out this video
ReplyDeletehttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10150113735642761&set=vb.716992760&type=2&theater
Keith! F-35 watchers...both supporters and critics....saw that vid back in 2010....and we all knew it was fake a few minutes after we saw it...the F-35 just did its first sea trial to great fan fare last year was it? oh and no. they didn't perform any vertical take offs in the beast!
Deleteno problem though. all of us get fooled every now and then.
If you cannot tell that is a flight sim.....
DeleteI'm not exactly sure carriers matter all that much given China's anti- access technology.
ReplyDeleteWe have more carriers on duty now, but look how we backtracked on China's AIDZ. What matters is that we have the will to go toe to toe with these guys if we need to. After two disastrous wars, it doesn't look like it.
China's "anti-access" technology, particularly the DF--21D, doesn't work in real life. It is not possible to guide a missile traveling at Mach 15 against a moving target, because plasma disables radar(aka the infamous plasma stealth) and EO sensor(the window is overheated). The Soviets tried and gave up. The Chinese cannot undo the law of physics and guide a missile when it can't be.
DeleteWhat the US Navy should really be concerned by is the wave of supersonic anti-ship missiles launched by bombers/destroyers, and sub-launched torpedoes.
All those things you listed can be included under that definition. Notice I made no mention of of their supposed "carrier killer" missile.
DeleteDrake1
DeleteSupersonic antiship missiles and torpedos are threats that the US Navy would face ANYWHERE, not just around China.
The same goes for China. While the US's anti-ship missiles are terrible, Japanese and Korean antiship missiles aren't, so Chinese carriers can be struck by superspnic anti-ship missiles as it gets out of its home port.
You have a real knack for missing the point others are trying to convey, while spouting the obvious.
DeleteThe problem isn't necessarily the number of CVNs we bring to bear, but having the political will to look out for our interests abroad. The Chinese pit up a AIDZ that neither Japan or South Korea require their passenger airlines to knowledge, yet we did. This from the country with the most carriers in the world.
Solomon, plans can change in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteI remember the last "plan" the that rag war is boring outed was to reduce the carrier fleet to 8 or even 6.
In the context of how much value is extracted from deploying LSDs on their own into smaller areas of interest, it is time for LSD-based Escort Carriers of around 20,000tons for maximum flexibility.
ReplyDelete- Got to be able carry and maintain a handful of F35Bs and all of the rotary-wing types.
- The more floating 'FARPs' - the better.
- And the more flat-tops the better for helo/tilt-rotor/STOVL 'Cross-Decking' option.
And as all LSDs and LPDs, she'd be powered with quad-Diesels for highest efficiencies while keeping up with LHA/Ds at 22-24kts.
Perhaps an opportunity to kick around 'ski-jump' or not discussions...
how much amphibious lift does the Marine Corps need? how many V-22s and F-35s fill requirements when the Corps goes down to 150,000 men and i don't know how many active infantry battalions?
Deletewhy do we need more aviation capable amphibs when we're putting two carriers on the shelf for the foreseeable future?
quite honestly considering the LHA, LHD, LPD, LSD, MLP and JHSV it really looks like we have gone from too little lift to too much!
Well SOL mostly I agree, but think about this:
DeleteHow about using those expensive big decks for more roles than amphib? You know change them out for large CVEs.
Then ask yourself how many landing craft spots does the downsized USMC need, and HOW are they to be lifted to - Wherever?
Not to mention that the L-ships are pretty damn expensive these days. (only type in your list that is affordable is the JHSV <$200 mil)
How about a 30,000 CVE-X carrier to launch many UAVs at the opposition?
If war comes, the Chinese will just kill the CV's in their home ports instead of out at sea.
ReplyDeleteSomeone high up in the chain of command is setting up the US for the knockout game.
Sucker punched by the administration charged with defending the US, that really sucks.