Tuesday, February 04, 2014

F-35. The “Bottakuri Bar” of defense programs...



via Defense News.
Sources here have privately begun to refer to the F-35 deal as a “bottakuri bar,” referring to establishments that lure customers of differing degrees of naivety and force them to pay exorbitant bills through a range of excess charges for items not mentioned explicitly on the menu.
Bearing in mind the rising costs of the F-35 program, the MoD is still figuring out what it can do about the long-term replacement of around 200 F-15J fighters and 90 F-2 fighters, Kiyotani said. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the MoD still purchases fighters based on an annual budget, meaning that it cannot lock in a price.
Read the entire article here.

Costs.

It will be a tallying of the costs of this airplane that will finally wake everyone up.  Die in a ditch for this airplane?  No.  But we should take the plane down to the river and hold it under 'til it stops kicking.

17 comments :

  1. In case of Japan, the cost may not matter because they must have replacement jets to counter China; it's either $30 billion spent or your territorial integrity violated and ripped apart. And frankly, cost on arms procurement doesn't matter to Japan's current militant nationalist government.

    Japan's case is different from that of EU nations that could basically do without an airforce.

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  2. what makes Abe a militant nationalist? why isn't he viewed by you as simply responding to Chinese aggression? why do you not like the Japanese and what country are you from?

    sorry i have to ask. you've danced hard on the Japanese to the point of me wondering what you have against them.

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    Replies
    1. Solomon,

      You can tell a leader's views and ideology by making appointments he makes because a leader installs people who shares his values; in case of Abe's appointments, they are all hardcore "Let's turn back the clock prior to 1945" kind of history deniers who deny the validity of Tokyo War Crimes Trial.

      If that only affected Japan's national security alone, then that would be fine. But in reality Abe's dragging the US into the brink of war via the US-Japan mutual defense treaty, which makes Japan's problems with China and Korea an American problem.

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    2. the only people that i've read that take that stance on Abe's actions are chinese nationalist or S. Korean nationalist.

      which brings me back to my point.

      why are you willing to ignore Chinese aggression throughout the pacific, but are so quick to condemn the Japanese when they choose to respond instead of cower

      Delete
    3. Historically, non-Asian ambassadors did not speak up on the issue of Japan's history denial, but the situation has degraded to the point that they could hold back no longer and had to speak out.

      http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/02/04/national/british-envoy-warns-against-asia-instability

      The British government “would be worried by actions which heightened regional instability,” Hitchens said in a conference hosted Monday by the Research Institute of Japan, a Jiji Press affiliate.

      Even if Japan cannot build perfect relations with its neighbors right away, the country should lay the groundwork for a good opportunity, the British diplomat said, calling for mechanisms to nurture trust between Japan and its neighbors.

      He went on to stress the importance of holding meetings of leaders of Asian countries, as well as increasing private-sector exchanges.

      Hitchens indirectly asked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe not to visit war-related Yasukuni Shrine again. The ambassador called for a careful approach on the issue, pointing to the need for cooperation with Japan’s allies, such as the United States.

      On history issues, following criticism of Japan by China and South Korea, Hitchens said, “The best way to redeem our past mistakes is to acknowledge mistakes made, be active in helping to build a better future” with both old and new friends.

      ==================================

      This is like the first time a British ambassador has urged Japanese government to acknowledge history and stop making history denials.

      Delete
  3. Solomon

    > why are you willing to ignore Chinese aggression throughout the pacific, but are so quick to condemn the Japanese when they choose to respond instead of cower

    The only way to stop the Chinese expansion is some kind of Asian NATO, which is impossible to form as long as Abe and his nationalist followers are in power. Presenting Abe's Japan as the counterweight to Asian nations is like presenting Stalin's Soviet Union as the counterweight to Hitler's Nazi Germany, which is no solution at all.

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    1. this is a horrible slander to the japanese people IMO. Japan is a modern democratic nation-state,you might not like his politics but the PEOPLE of Japan elected his party, and if they dont like him they can vote in the next election. Comparing modern Japan (which i will admit committed unspeakable atrocities during WWII) to stalin (a man who said one death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic) is very unfair. Also why not allow Japan to be a counterweight to china? we help middle eastern nations be a counterweight to Iran, why not Japan and others against china, we are not helping Japan in-lieu of other nations but as apart of our alliance along the pacific rim.

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    2. joe

      > the PEOPLE of Japan elected his party

      And the PEOPLE of Germany elected Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party into power. So the historical circimstances surrounding the election of Abe's LDP and Hitler's Nazis are strikingly similar, that the extremists seized power based on people's desperation.

      > if they dont like him they can vote in the next election.

      That assumes Japan being a free democratic country. Japan has been sliding off the Demcracy Index ranking for the past few years, and is dangerouly close to being crossed out from the list of "Full Democracy". Elections don't always work to collect political balance in less than fully democratic countries.

      > Also why not allow Japan to be a counterweight to china?

      Because Japan wants their islands and the EEZ as much as China does? Japan has territorial disputes with China, Korea, Russia, and Taiwan.

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-to-step-up-education-on-territorial-claim/2014/01/28/d3e61242-87de-11e3-a760-a86415d0944d_story.html

      Japan to teach territorial claims in schools

      TOKYO — The Japanese government announced Tuesday it is revising official teaching manuals to emphasize Japan’s territorial rights to islands that are also claimed by China and South Korea.

      The Education Ministry said the decision was made to reflect the government’s official view on the territorial claims. The revision is seen as part of education reform by conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to instill patriotism and nationalism.

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    3. Something to add. Abe administration knows they are in a diplomatic trouble with the US for Abe's nationalist stance.

      http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/japan-usa-alliance-idINDEEA130E220140204

      The Obama visit "is a vital opportunity for the United States to express its vision of what role the United States is going to play", Japanese ambassador to Washington Kenichiro Sasae told a seminar recently. "We also want to see the United States make clear who are the friends and allies and troublemakers and potential problem-makers."

      =====================================

      A pretty striking statement from the Japanese ambassador, where he is demanding the US to clarify who is the US's friend and who is the troublemaker. He's saying this because the message the Japanese foreign ministry was getting from the US State Department was that both Japan and China were troublemakers of the region.

      For example, immediately after the Japanese government announced the revision of the teaching manual to mandate a teaching on Japan's territorial claims, Japanese delegates visiting the Washington DC were told not to revise the teaching manual. The Japanese officials fear Obama wants to negotiate with China and throw Japan under the bus, like reaching a certain agreement with China that under certain circumstances the US would not intervene in the Diaoyu War, like Japan trying to force land Chinese military planes and opening fire first, etc.

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    4. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/AJ201402040046

      Japan questions whether it can still rely on U.S. alliance

      February 04, 2014

      By TAKASHI OSHIMA/ Correspondent

      WASHINGTON--Criticism of Obama administration policies are now being openly voiced in Japan, particularly in the aftermath of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to a war-related shrine.

      The Facebook page of the U.S. Embassy started receiving negative comments after Washington released a statement Dec. 26 saying it was “disappointed” by Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine, which memorializes Japan’s war dead along with 14 Class-A war criminals. Many online postings accused the United States of pushing its beliefs on others.

      The U.S. stance has even prompted some high-level Japanese officials to ask whether they can continue to count on their longtime ally.

      A rift is also emerging at the intergovernmental level, not the least in China policy, as Tokyo and Beijing are locked in a standoff over sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and Japan’s interpretation of shared history, particularly events leading up to and during World War II.

      National Journal, a U.S. weekly magazine that covers political and policy trends in Washington, said in late January that Abe is “privately telling visiting U.S. politicians that he doesn’t feel he can rely on Washington any longer against China.”

      “Is the Obama administration really to be counted on?” asked one official in the Foreign Ministry.

      Some speculate the discord stems in part from the more conservative policies being advanced by the Abe administration versus the more liberal approaches championed by Democrats in Washington.

      ====================================

      The Japanese official's concern that the Obama administration is about to make deals with Chinese and throw Japan under the bus is real.

      Again, Japanese press gives an extensive coverage of humiliations and the cold shoulders that its diplomats and envoys are getting in the Washington DC that the US general public is unaware of.

      Of course, the US blames its harsh stance toward Japan on Abe administration.

      Delete
  4. "Sources here privately". LOL! So a bunch of bloggers on the anti-F-35 bandwagon have taken to calling it names? I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.

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    1. I read the same stuff on Japanese press too. It's legit.

      It is well-known that Japan was pressured into buying the F-35 over more preferred Typhoon.

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    2. All interesting, since, 12 years after contract award, the F-35 has shown no proof of being operationally capable. It has many years to go before showing any proof. Yet, the gullible still are willing to buy now.

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  5. LRIP-8 is supposed to be negotiated soon, and the plan is to include four F-35A for Japan. If this happens it would be the first Foreign Military Sales production for F-35. Of the eight foreign partners in the F-35 program, who have contributed funds to the program, five have taken (well sort of, they don't really have possession) planes built at Fort Worth. Three have not -- Canada, Denmark and Turkey.

    So this would place Japan in a unique position, the first non-partner to buy the mistake-jet. Is Japan that stupid? (Israel may get planes from LRIP-8 but I'm discounting them.)

    Frank Kendall, the Pentagon acquisition chief, some time back: "Putting the F-35 into production years before the first test flight was acquisition malpractice." So it goes without saying that purchasing the products of this malpractice is stupid. Will Japan do it? Will Japan purchase planes that can't fly at night nor in bad weather, at a high price?

    The "news" that Japan will buy four or forty-two mistake-jets has been trumpeting for over two years now.
    -Japan to buy Lockheed's F-35 fighter jet - FT.com
    -JAPAN TO BUY 42 F35 STEALTH FIGHTER JETS CCTV News
    -Japan Buys Four F-35 Fighters Despite Price Increase
    -Pentagon Welcomes Japan's F-35 Stealth Fighter Purchase

    Let's see if Japan visits the “Bottakuri Bar”.

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    Replies
    1. You do not understand Japan. Japan will buy F-35s because

      1. The US is arm-twisting Japan to buy. Unlike the western countries(US, Europe), Japan's social structure is hierarchical where the superior commands and the subordinate obeys unconditionally, so Japan will obey the commands of the superior(US) unconditionally. When you understand Japanese social structure, you understand that not buying is not an option regardless of cost. Buying the F-35 is simply considered a price to pay to preserve the US-Japan alliance that serves as the foundation of Japan's national security policy.

      2. Japan, unlike NATO nations, has its very territorial integrity being threatened at this very moment and a purchase of new replacement fighter jet is an urgent matter. A European-style or an American-style disarment is not an option for Japan and Japan is in the position of having to increase, not decrease, its fighter jet fleet.

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    2. It's nice to meet someone who understands Japan.

      SlowManThursday, November 21, 2013 10:02:00 AM
      Unlike most JSF partner nations Japan has a fall back option in the form of the F-3, so the F-35 being delayed is of little concern to Japan.

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    3. Don Bacon

      The fallback option got pushed back, so Japan needs the F-35 ASAP.

      Delete

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