Thanks to Bob for pointing me to this article.
via GenerationalDynamics
How many of you have been so focused on the various hotspots around the world...from the Ukraine, to Syria, to Egypt, to Venezuela, to Brazil, to Thailand etc....that you took your eye off China?
I did. Did you?
That's a luxury our far left (internationalist that believe in a responsibility to protect) and our far right (the US is the indispensable country) seem to forget.
China is the quintessential threat we face!
We must focus on fighting China. And with that in mind I ask. Is the F-35 the warhorse that will carry us to victory? How about the LCS? Is now the time to cut the number of aircraft carriers? How about Army Brigades and USMC Battalions?
History will look back at current leadership...both civilian and military...with contempt. We're making all the wrong moves at precisely the wrong time.
via GenerationalDynamics
"Suffice it to say that my assessment is that the PLA Navy has become a very capable fighting force. Much of the intelligence record is classified beyond what we can discuss in this forum, but just to give you one example, in 2012, the PLA Navy sent seven surface actions groups and the largest number of its submarines on deployment into the Philippine Sea in its history – and a significant increase in some areas from the years before, or just the year before.Question.
Make no mistake, the PLA Navy is focused on war at sea and about sinking an opposing fleet.
The PLA Navy’s civil proxy, an organization called “China Marine Surveillance,” has escalated a focused campaign since 2008 to gain Chinese control of the near seas, and they now regularly challenge the exclusive economic zone resource rights that South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Vietnam once thought were guaranteed to them by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. ... China is negotiating for control of other nations’ resources off their coasts. “What’s mine is mine, and we’ll negotiate what’s yours.” ...
Incidentally, unlike U.S. coast guard cutters, Chinese marine surveillance cutters have no other mission but to harass other nations into submitting to China’s expansive claims. Mundane maritime government tasks like search-and-rescue, regulating fisheries, ice breaking and criminal law enforcement are handled by other agencies. ...
In my opinion, China is knowingly, operationally and incrementally seizing maritime rights of its neighbors under the rubric of a maritime history that is not only contested in the international community, but has largely been fabricated by Chinese government propaganda bureaus in order to quote-unquote “educate” the populace about China’s “rich maritime history” clearly as a tool to help sustain the Party’s control.
How many of you have been so focused on the various hotspots around the world...from the Ukraine, to Syria, to Egypt, to Venezuela, to Brazil, to Thailand etc....that you took your eye off China?
I did. Did you?
That's a luxury our far left (internationalist that believe in a responsibility to protect) and our far right (the US is the indispensable country) seem to forget.
China is the quintessential threat we face!
We must focus on fighting China. And with that in mind I ask. Is the F-35 the warhorse that will carry us to victory? How about the LCS? Is now the time to cut the number of aircraft carriers? How about Army Brigades and USMC Battalions?
History will look back at current leadership...both civilian and military...with contempt. We're making all the wrong moves at precisely the wrong time.
Hello Mr. Solomon.
ReplyDeleteFirst, your blog is very good. It´s one of my everyday reading. I know it´s a "Marine corps centric blog" but I find your analysis on equipment very good, especially when it comes to China, and other countries around the South China Sea.
I am from Brazil. Why did you mention Brazil as a "hotspot"?
no offense intended but from what i read it appears that the Brazilian govt has again started sending troops into the favelas to crack down on the drug dealing and other crimes. i only mention it because its part of a 'world wide brief" i get.
Deleteis it wrong?
What world briefing do you read in the morning?
ReplyDeleteIt all comes down to (in a non-WMD scenario) the following:
1. How much pain will the leadership of the USA and PRC (Communist Party of China) will bear?
2. How much pain will the populace of each country endure?
All bets are off if one country goes nuclear or launches WMDs.
It is just of case of Machiavellian calculus for regime survival in the case of CPC or risk of sovereign survival for the USA. This is developing in to a great war game, “what if” or alternate-history novel/series.
"We're making all the wrong moves at precisely the wrong time." I like that sentence, it perfectly describe situation not only in US forces but in whole western world.
ReplyDeleteNo offense at all. And thanks for the answer.
ReplyDeleteYou're right about the favelas: favelas are used by drug traffickers as safe haven, so police troops are sent there from time to time. But it´s a common occurrence (for brazilians). It´rare to use military forces. The last time military forces were used was 2010.
As for China... I believe they´ll try to invade Senkaku Island, triggering a war with Japan to test US resolve in defendig their allies in the Pacific.
I just hope US remembers two quotes from Wiston Churchill about appeasement the Nazis:
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."
And
"Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonour. They chose dishonour. They will have war."
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deletehttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0b0fcf2a-9896-11e3-8503-00144feab7de.html
DeleteFrom Japan’s perspective, Washington did not back it up with sufficient vigour when Tokyo’s control of disputed islands was cleverly challenged by Beijing’s announcement of an air defence identification zone. Washington did show its displeasure by flying B52 bombers over the zone, but Joe Biden, US vice-president, did not make a big deal of the issue when he visited Beijing.
Many officials in Tokyo regard Washington as having virtually capitulated to China’s unilateral move. They also regularly bemoan the absence of “Japan hands” around President Barack Obama, who has tended to surround himself with people far more steeped in China. More than one official in Tokyo speaks of a growing sense that Washington can no longer be relied upon to support Japan.
Now the moment has come, though, some in Washington are having second thoughts. John Kerry, secretary of state, according to one former White House official, regards Japan as “unpredictable and dangerous”. There is nervousness that Japanese nationalism will provoke a counter-reaction in Beijing. Hugh White, an Australian academic and former defence official, says the meaning is clear: “America would rather see Japan’s interests sacrificed than risk a confrontation with China.”
When Mr Abe went to Yasukuni, he may have partly been sending a message to Washington. It is a curiosity of the Japanese right that it has been the most ardent supporter of the US-Japan alliance while simultaneously being resentful of the postwar settlement imposed by Washington on a defeated Japan. Going to Yasukuni in defiance of US wishes is one way of signalling that Japan cannot always be relied upon to do Washington’s bidding.
Distaste in Washington for Mr Abe is by no means universal. In some ways, the Japanese prime minister is exactly what the US doctor ordered. He has a plan to reflate Japan’s economy. He is the first leader in years with any hope of solving the festering issue of US marine bases in Okinawa. He is willing to spend more on defence after years of a self-imposed limit of 1 per cent of output. Those policies, however, come with a price tag: a revisionist nationalism that many in Washington find distasteful.
To face China, you need UCLASS, X-47B, stand off weapons and a lot of Fighters and more carriers, not less.
ReplyDeleteThis is what the USNavy and the Marines should have in their decks, affordable Super Hornets and Sea Gripens, a lot of them with a lot of AA missiles. Not just few handicapped Scrap Fighters with two internal missiles.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0C6OfKKQy0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
You're in a lala dream land. Carriers aren't going to be nearly as useful as you think. First of all they are going to be large vulnerable target without an capability to deliver payload anywhere near actual targets. Our current fighters have no where near the range to project power except in a permissive environment. Overall in the current modern age, carriers simply aren't as powerful and awe inspiring as in the past and they are well past their sell by date when it comes to an offensive push in naval combat.
DeleteWhat our carriers need to be relevant is long range strike capabilities that are sorely lacking. We need fast capable attack craft with available 1k nm range. We simply don't have that currently. The closest we can get to that will be unfortunately the F35 with drop tanks. SHs and Sea Gripens simply don't have the legs to do it. At best in a war with china, they can provide air cover for the burkes to fire their missiles.
In a war with China you have to consider their carriers too. To be able to launch a bomber or drone from your carrier you have to dominate the Blue sea first, not just the coast. That's why you need the Super Hornets or Sea Gripens. The F-35 is not a fighter and will be a turkey against the Chinese Sukhoys launched from their carriers with Irst and long range IR missiles . In a dogfight their situation will be even worst with out Aim-9x. (assuming they don't carry them to keep their stealth configuration). After destroying the Chinese Navy 1000 NM away you can launch your drones to attack their Air defenses, radars and communications, but even so, your Avengers will need to be protected by fighters to reach the max distance to launch those stand off weapons. The X-47B can act as tankers or missile truks to give more range and teeth to those fighters. After that you will need the Sea Gripens , Super Hornets and Growlers to protect the Marines that will reinforce Taiwan, the Philippines or the Japanese Islands. The few F-35 will be useless against hundreds of cheap Chinese fighters arriving from the continent. Again you will need a lot of Super Hornets, Growlers and Sea Gripes side by side with the allied fighters. The carrier battle group can be protected by the Aegis, submarines and destroyers, to approach the war zone. You don't win a war just with stand of weapons, you need boots on the ground and they need Electronic warfare capacity air protection and close air support. Both, the Gripens and the Super Hornets can landing and take off in short runways in Taiwan if necessary.
DeleteWww.youtube.com/watch?v=gQUdbw__g_Q&feature=youtube_gdata_player
www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-mtvZoq4N0&feature=youtube_gdata_player www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYGM-aB1Luc&feature=youtube_gdata_player www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts8PlXpBO50&feature=youtube_gdata_player
www.foxnews.com/tech/2014/02/17/us-navy-ready-to-deploy-laser-system-this-summer/
DeleteHi
ReplyDeleteI am currently watching the " Untold History of the United States" from Oliver Stone... and I wanted to know if, salomon, you saw it ?
I post it here because it make me think, or ask, if somebody is constructing a new enemy to USA.
i'm not an Oliver Stone fan so no i haven't seen his movie. as far as constructing an enemy i think we can blame Clinton and Bush. they had enough intel to know what they were doing when they decided to link our economy to our own in search of expanded opportunities for business but ignored it.
Deletethe crazy thing about this is that China is a threat we created. if not for "free trade" and globalization they would still be stuck in the stone ages....
You make a point.
DeleteI encourage you to watch them... I thought I know about the history of the century, but it was just the top of iceberg. I assure you that you won't regret to watch them.
And I'm curious to know want you think about.
They have to be seen by everybody in occident.
http://www.ibtimes.com/china-preparing-short-sharp-war-japan-over-disputed-east-china-sea-islands-us-officer-1556687
ReplyDeleteChina Is Preparing For "Short And Sharp" War With Japan Over Disputed East China Sea Islands: US Officer
China’s military has been beefing up training as the country continues keeping an unwavering stance on various territory disputes with its neighbors. In particular, according to a U.S. naval officer China has been preparing for possible military action over the ongoing dispute with Japan over a small cluster of islands in the East China Sea, and the more recent air-defense zone dispute.
“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise -- Mission Action 2013,” Fannell said during a conference last week in San Diego, Calif. “[We] concluded that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] – as some of their academics say.”
http://japandailypress.com/japan-pushes-for-formal-bilateral-ties-with-taiwan-to-counter-china-2044659/
ReplyDeleteJapan pushes for formal bilateral ties with Taiwan to counter China
Some members of the Japanese Diet are seriously considering formalizing bilateral relations with its Asian neighbor, Taiwan, in light of the strained ties with China. Lawmakers are planning introduce a Japanese version of the Taiwan Relations Act that dictates U.S. relations with Taiwan, seeking to make current unofficial ties a formality.
===========================
This would be a manna from heaven for Taiwanese, who are starving of latest weapons to combat China. Instead of F-35 and U-214 subs license built in the US, Taiwan would be able to buy the F-3 fighter jet and Soryu-class subs from Japan instead.
The democrats are once again sleep walking into a large and bloody Pacific war.
ReplyDeleteMuch as they did with Japan.
The administration is raptly gazing at it's own naval and looking up it's own ass for enemies inside the US in the guise of republican's, Christian's, gun owners and conservatives.
I'm betting the democrats in charge seeing China as a loyal friend and ally.
Being fellow communist and all.
I'm reading that extract and thinking "so what?".
ReplyDeleteThere aren't many armed forces in the world that aren't preparing for war, China doing so is unremarkable. It's faced with a foreign power (The US) forward deploying a large share of it's forces not that far off it's shores and is aware that the foreign power is training to kill Chinese nationals. I don't think that building up assets in response is a clear sign that China is planning a daring raid on America and it's allies.
This is further mitigated by the fact that Chinese forces are known to be below that expected of a country of it's size and influence. They certainly have other legitimate reasons to build up forces other than to attack America.
Personally I don't think that their build up of forces pose an immediate threat, it shouldn't be ignored either but there's a real risk of excessive US military build up intimidating China into doing something stupid.
As for the Coastguard - the British did something similar off Iceland for a while over a fishing dispute, it's a fairly common practice.