A few things about the latest flare up...this time in the Ukraine...
1. Putin. Love him or hate him, one thing is certain. He stands by his friends and is seeing Russia rise. They might be viewed as a counterweight to the US and the EU but they are predictable. A two year old could have told you what Putin's reaction. He's predictable...That makes him even more dangerous. He's a pro and will not miscalculate.
2. Crimea is all but back in Russian hands. Ukraine can play the game if they want but its obvious that Crimea is again a Russian holding.
3. The Obama foreign policy is a joke. Happy, happy, joy, joy doesn't play on the world stage. At every turn the State Dept seems to be caught flat footed and behind the power curve.
4. The Obama defense establishment is a joke. We entered a phase where the DoD began taking the lead when it came to international diplomacy with the Bush Jr administration. Fast forward to today and we hear nothing from the DoD warning the Russians to back off. We appear impotent to the world.
US foreign and defense policy has been exposed as the emasculated shell it once was.
We can't do shit about whats going on and everyone knows it. Trust me on this. The Chinese are watching and they are not impressed.
I've talked about it but never believed that it would happen in my lifetime. The military decline of the US appears to be occurring right before our eyes.
Yeah, I've been watching this closely too. With our current leadership we don't stand a chance.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I will note that China's leadership is not nearly as competent as Russia's and the DoD has been consistent in warning them to back off from the Philippines and the Spratly Islands. The Chinese are not nearly as skilled or as well knit together as us or the Russians for now. I kind of think of them like eight crime families that work together and cooperate to keep power.
Anyway, you're right. After the Syria Crisis the Obama Administration turned into a complete joke on the international community. Russia is known as the country with the real world class leaders right now and everyone knows it. A friend of mine asked me this question: "Think about it. If an advanced alien race from outer space came to earth and you were the first one they talked, they would probably ask you to take them to your leader. Who would you want to represent the plant earth to them? Obama or Putin?" To be honest I would rather that they talk to Putin, as much as I hate to admit it.
"The Chinese are not nearly as skilled or as well knit together as us or the Russians for now. I kind of think of them like eight crime families that work together and cooperate to keep power."
DeleteNot quite. For internal domestic issues such as liberalisation/democratisation of their political system/economy, there is usually infighting over who is right or wrong. But when it comes to foreign policy, they are all on the same line. If you look at how they've been handling the South China Sea disputes, you'll realise that they've been playing the long game all along. It's only popped up on Western media recently because now they're making their move. This dispute has been going on as long as the 1970s.
In the 40 years since then, they have managed to improve bilateral ties through trade with all the SE Asian countries, making them economically dependent on China, all the while avoiding a direct confrontation on the issue unless it was on their terms. They have successfully blocked every attempt by ASEAN so far to mount a united diplomatic front in negotiating with China on the South China sea dispute.
Recently. by playing hardball/brinksmanship with Japan and declaring an ADIZ over the East China Sea, they have also made ASEAN counties think twice about overtly challenging China's claims. Notice how there was a lull with the Phillipines/Vietnam during the end of 2013 as China gradually escalated with Japan.
The last thing the Phillipine's wants is an ADIZ over South China Sea as well. Countries like the Phillipine's and Vietnam don't have a capable enough military or civilian maritime authority to play cat and mouse with China in the South China Sea. If they can't patrol as frequently as China, or defend their fishermen when they are being harassed by Chinese patrol boats, they begin to lose de-facto legitimacy in their claim.
I think as this situation unfolds more over the next year or two, we will see their bargaining position significantly weakened until the US gets serious with its "Asia Pivot". With the Ukraine situation now also in the radar, Obama's job has only gotten harder.
Andrew Robertson.
DeleteDesculpe mas para escrever em inglês ainda estou ruim.... Li seu comentário e achei interessante, gosto desse blog e acompanho aqui do Brasil. O problema que a Ucrânia apresenta aos russos é a sua posição geográfica em relação a própria Russia e o Governo Obama sabe disto e não quer talvez concordar tão publicamente que respeita essa posição da Russia quanto a este fato, há certos limites que gostemos ou não devemos respeitar para não chegarmos a um perigoso ponto sem retorno.
Faz apenas algumas horas atrás vi no canal RT que o parlamento Russo aprovou por unanimidade o uso da força na Ucrânia por Putin, isto é bem significativo política e estrategicamente para um país que quer ergue-se como uma super potência novamente.
A escalada de tensão com a China concordo que realmente é menos perigosa que esta.
The US State Department, with neocon Victoria Nuland in charge, is at the forefront of the Ukraine situation which has seen State's neo-Nazis take control of what started as a people's protest in Kiev. The moderates whom the EU favored have been shut out, as Nuland forecasted in her recorded infamous cell phone transcript: ". . .F**k the EU."
ReplyDeleteThe crisis in Ukraine is a long time coming. The West pushed NATO and the EU as far East as they wanted and left a grey zone on Russia's borders. It is no surprise Russia is picking up the slack. Despite the current kabuki, the US and Europe left Ukraine (and others) to their fates years ago. Aside from the political fallout, I don't see a 'defeat' in Ukraine as a strategic loss for the US.
ReplyDeleteif you said that two years ago i might agree. but considering that the Ukrainian people (at least some of them) were agitating to accept an EU offer of closer ties and this all cooked off because of the move to bring Ukraine into the EU orbit i have to disagree wholeheartedly. this was a power move by the EU to gobble up a part of Russia and it fell flat on its face.
Deletenow they're facing the worse of all possible worlds. AT BEST we're looking at a balkanized Ukraine and at worse we're seeing the Russians just taking over the country.
the US and the EU got bitch slapped by Putin and instead of fighting back they're just taking it and saying "daddy please don't hit me again".
Oh shit:
Delete- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html
Let the Europeans worry about it.
ReplyDeleteDon't just go as far as Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteThis week Russian Navy established in Venezuela supporting N.Maduro. They are also in Cuba and they are going to stablish a base in Nicaragua. In the mean time Obama is jocking saing they are building an Ironman. Lindon Larouche is right when he qualifies Obama as the new Neron, a megalomaniac singing when the city is burning.
It's Nero. And a lot of the bad rep was actually by his enemies. He was actually nowhere in Rome when the Great Fire started (he was in Antium) and while Roman politics was a snakepit which might account for his tactics, he was actually a pretty good ruler.
DeleteExamples in point: He fixed lawyers fees so that lawyers can't overcharge people and that even the poor can afford protection of the law. He also insisted tax records to be open to the pubic. Try doing that now in the US. Oh wait, you already tried that last election...
I'd say Nero was actually ok as a ruler, but bad at PR so everyone with an axe to grind made him look bad.
As for Ukraine... interesting question... does the US have more right to intervene in that area than Russia where anything that goes wrong there directly affects Russia itself? The US won't even break a fart if that area goes to hell, but Russia is going to be directly hit with all the refugees and unrest, so you can say that they have a much bigger stake in the game than America. Force is not going to work here unless you want to reheat the old Cold War, but maybe a quiet word playing on their fears might. "Go in too strong and the people there will hate you, then you'll get stuck there for ages." "Too much unrest and watch your areas get flooded with refugees." "Let those idiots sort themselves out, any one you support will just look like a puppet" etc.
A soft word in the right "or wrong" ear can kill armies and stop invasions cold. Or start an invasion. Maybe it's time for the US to learn of the power of a soft word.
Its not about Ukraine, its about Russia.
ReplyDeleteAll russians now watch ukrainians and they fight again government of corrupt thieves, same government as in Russia.
If ukrainians win their freedom, russians will flush their own government of thieves in exactly same way.
Acho que todos já sabiam o que o Putin faria o que parece e que o mundo (USA) ficou dez anos preso ao oriente médio e esqueceu da Russia e China esses são o grande problema. quanto a Ucrânia tenho do seu povo pois sabemos que a Russia ira esmagar qualquer foco de resistência diante de um mundo calado.
ReplyDeleteNever ascribe to decline what is more better ascribed to mismanagement and incompetence.
ReplyDelete