Thanks for the link Pietro!
via ilsole24ore.com
That would be the opening that the other allies are looking for to reduce their purchases.
This will ACCELERATE the death spiral the airplane is already in, and with the Senate set to fall back into Republican hands---along with a resurgent Tea Party led by Rand Paul---we can expect the program to face further cuts here at home.
The craziest thing about all this?
The Pentagon has mortgaged the future of the US Military on the belief that all must be sold to save the F-35.
What happens when they've wrecked the military to pay for an airplane that in the end isn't bought.
via ilsole24ore.com
The cut that the government Renzi could bring to the program by reducing to 45 F-35s would represent a compromise that would ensure savings and would maintain the cooperation with Washington while still allowing the Air Force to equip two groups of bombers and the Navy has 15 aircraft short takeoff and vertical landing version of the F-35B to be loaded on the aircraft carrier Cavour. These are the only F-35 really essential for Italy since there are no other aircraft with similar characteristics to replace the old Harrier.A reduction to 45.
That would be the opening that the other allies are looking for to reduce their purchases.
This will ACCELERATE the death spiral the airplane is already in, and with the Senate set to fall back into Republican hands---along with a resurgent Tea Party led by Rand Paul---we can expect the program to face further cuts here at home.
The craziest thing about all this?
The Pentagon has mortgaged the future of the US Military on the belief that all must be sold to save the F-35.
What happens when they've wrecked the military to pay for an airplane that in the end isn't bought.
The cut to 45 is nothing but wild speculation based on the wish expressed by some in parliament. It has no basis in current reality.
ReplyDeletei notice that you aren't arguing that F-35 cuts are wrong, just the number.
DeleteINTERESTING.
Cuts might happen. Or might not. They have announced a 3 billion cut in defence spending in the next 3 years. Something will go for sure. BUT:
Delete- F-35 development money is spent. 800 million for the FACO, spent. There is only an handful of aircraft currently on order. They can't realistically be cut, some are already being built. Even if they were cut, we are talking of perhaps 10 aircraft at most. Cutting the order to 45 has no impact whatsoever in the next three, four or five years of spending, as most aircraft are planned to be built over many years (the 90th would only be delivered in 2027)
The scope for savings in the short term is very small.
- More Typhoon are a wish of Finmeccanica, NOT of the air force. Also, ordering the Tranche 3B Typhoon could cause issues, as Eurofighter would probably try and obtain penalties from the other countries, UK, Germany and Spain who all DO NOT WANT to buy more Typhoon.
Even if more Typhoons were forced down the throat of the air force, the total would not be 121, as the 20 or so Tranche 1 are virtually useless and due to be removed from service. They would have, again, to force the air force to do something that is against all planning. Possible, but unlikely.
- Finally, i'm going to tell you: Italy's cut is only going to damage Italy, which will have spent a lot of money on the FACO, only to destroy its return with its own hands. I don't see any ally being fazed in any way. The only thing that will influence their planning is their own lack of money.
There is no air force that WANTS to cut F-35. There are air forces, including RAF and italian AMI, that are forced to cut because the government has less money for defence.
The effects of the "review" of the F-35 program in Italy could go in many ways: it could cut the (arguably useless) 15 F-35B for the Air Force, hopefully growing the Navy's order from 15 to 20 or so, as for original plan.
The 15 / 15 F-35B was a political deal forced on the Air Force and Navy when the 131 F-35 were cut to 90 (original: 69 F-35A, 40 F-35B air force, 22 F-35B Navy); and if the review listens to the forces chiefs for once, it is likely that the B for the air force will be sacrificed, in favor of more for the Navy, which is the only service which really needs them, for the Cavour aircraft carrier.
The cut could be from 90 to 75, or from 90 to 80, or it might just end up being delays to the delivery schedule, to shift expenditure to the right, saving in the short term.
It is too early to say. Wild speculation and hidden advertising from Finmeccanica (which would get greater gains from building more Typhoons than from building F-35, due to how the two programs work) are not a good indication of what is going on.
you seriously need to clarify a few issues.
Delete1. the cuts to the F-35 program will not only affect the actual aircraft but engines, and maintenance. additionally since the actual cost of the airplanes has yet to be determined then any "projected" saving as you count them are fantasy. something is brewing to make cuts of the F-35 figure so prominently in the reporting. leaks of news before it becomes news is common practice.
2. you gloss over the overall economic reality that is facing not only Southern Europe, but greater Europe and the US. as i stated in my post here. i fully expect cuts to come to the US.
3. you talk about nations not wanting to back out of the F-35 but ignore the fact that the US Navy has all but yelled that it wants out, the fact that Canada continues to equivocate, Singapore is noncommittal and even the UK hasn't finalized its purchase as was expected earlier this year.
contrary to public opinion, i don't mind supporters putting up a good case for the plane but i chaff at ignoring reality.
the reality is stark. the plane WAS too big to fail but that is rapidly changing. now its the only thing left to cut.
Cuts to engine and maintenance will again do nothing in the next three years. Italy has no aircraft flying, and won't have one for at least two more years. Engines i'm counting into the orders placed for the few aircraft on order so far. The money that Renzi is seeking in the short term is not going to come from F-35 maintenance that is years away.
DeleteEconomic realities might dictate further reductions, sure. But i don't care about your expectations, sorry.
The US Navy's hesitations are understandable and actually quite clear. The navy has less of an urgency, and in any case, you grossly overstate the "screams of wanting out". Singapore is taking its time. So what? What does that mean? Oman took ages to finalize an order for Typhoon, UAE is also taking a lot of time to finalize its plans. Does it mean something? No. Singapore has not committed to buying and did not say it would buy X planes in Y year. The fact it is seriously considering doing so is a victory, not a problem.
The UK's order will come. They have been busy with other defence announcements and issues, i wouldn't read too much in it. Army 2020 parliamentary report, nuclear reactors issues, investment in submarines... the F-35 announcement will arrive too, in good time. You might have missed that just days ago a modification to LRIP 6 contract was signed, with a few million dollars of money for activities to start up RAF Marham as the Main Operating Base for F-35.
As for Canada, they are short on money and trying to take decisions. I wouldn't, again, read too much into it. It is not just the F-35, it is a mess all along: look at the trouble with the navy's supply ships, especially now that one of the old ones is KO.
For canada, Dassault try to sell his Rafale in your private market...
DeleteIt will at least help Canada to negociate the best F-35 deal over the world, at the expense of the pentagon's budget.