Saturday, March 22, 2014

Is China going to do a Crimea on the Spratly Islands?

Thanks for the link Dallas!

via Sunstar.com
An administration lawmaker on Friday urged the government to keep a tight watch on the series of recent provocative actions by China at the disputed territories in West Philippine Sea.
Valenzuela City Representative Sherwin Gatchalian feared that China might eventually use its might to annex highly contested territories in the Southeast Asia in a similar way how Russia flexed its muscles after invading the Crimea Region in Ukraine
"[I am] wary of the fact that China could be taking a cue from Russia as far as dealing and resolving its maritime territorial conflict with the Philippines and its other Asian neighbors are concerned," Gatchalian said.
He said that the similar openly aggressive and defiant actions that China is taking regarding the maritime dispute should be a cause of great concern especially for the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).
The lawmaker warned that China might take a cue from Russia and could use its military might to enforce its claims and later justify its acts by invoking its inherent rights on its territorial claims.
Hmm.

What have we learned from the Crimea situation...

1.  The US administration is not willing to even threaten force.
2.  The US State Dept will only act in concert with allies.  It will not act alone.
3.  From Syria, we learned that even when force is threatened, unless terrorist are involved then its a poor, weak bluff.
4.  US military currently is not capable of responding with speed of rapidly developing events.

Yeah.  I could see the Chinese doing a sharp quick push for disputed areas and then following the Russian example of it being a "done deal" before Western leaders can react.

Russia and China will never attack the US directly, but our allies????  Yeah.  They're screwed. 

12 comments :

  1. Off topic but interesting development regarding USMC combat vehicle modernization
    This just come in

    In what has been described as a “drastic shift,” the Marines have decided to “resurrect” the MPC and designate it as ACV Increment 1.1 and acquire about 200 vehicles. The Marines also plan to develop ACV Increment 1.2, a tracked version, and to acquire about 470 vehicles and fund an ongoing high water speed study. Although ACV Increment 1.1 will have a swim capability, a connector will be required to get the vehicles from ship to shore.
    Plans call for ACV Increment 1.1 to enter the acquisition cycle at Milestone B (Engineering and Manufacturing Development) in FY2016, award prototype contracts leading to a down select to one vendor in FY2018, and enter low-rate initial production. Marine budget documents do not address ACV Increment 1.2 program timelines, thereby effectively delaying the development of a fully amphibious assault vehicle.

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  2. I dont see how china could do a referendum in some un-inhabitied islands. But I do think between Syria and Crimea it has given every dodgy country the green light to do what it wants.

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  3. I'm worried that they may try to do it during this Administration, knowing the weak disposition of our current President.

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  4. Not the entire Spratleys. But I could see the Chinese making small moves into only one country's claimed areas at a time. Divide and conquer so to speak. It seems to me, if China were to make a bold move and try to take the entire Spratley's, it would upset too many countries at one time for China's action to be accepted as fait acoompli by the world.

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  5. I see China taking serious notes on what Russia is doing in Crimea and making plans on what to do in the spratleys as well.

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  6. China has been pulling this stuff in the South China Sea for ages since Vietnam War starting with the seizure of Paracel Islands, nothing new.

    Unlike in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea, there are no forces strong enough to counter China's military moves, so it is free-taking for China.

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  7. Well America wont stand up to Russia or even Syria, so whats China, Iran or North Korea got to worry about? The rest of the world wont act without America

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    Replies
    1. Syria and Iran : Israel.
      China : North Korea and Japan.
      North Korea : China and Japan.

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  8. International law without any teeth is basically just a suggestion box.

    We are entering a phase that reminds me of the League of Nations in the 30's. The Spanish Civil War, the invasion of Abyssinia, Japan's seizure of Manchuria were all unopposed since nobody had the will to back up international law with force.

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  9. Obama bowed, in Asia this is the traditional offering of your head to your betters to take or to spare.
    In the middle east it's a shoe kissing act, in europe it gets a Nobel peace prize.
    In the United States it gets a fellow re-elected no matter how incompetent you are.
    No where is this seen as more than a submissive gesture such as a beta dog rolling on it's back and licking the alpha dogs penis.
    The world has taken stock of Barack and they are not impressed.
    Barack has given up his nation of sheeple to the wolves and emasculated and disarmed the sheepdogs.
    Votes have consequences and a media that is in the tank for one political party is the biggest threat the US faces.

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  10. A prove for USA. China follows Crimea issue very well for their own plan (Japanese island and Taiwan).

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  11. Hey marine guys, I think China won't be interested at this stage. She is thinking about the Fiery Cross Reef missile base to balance US bases in the Philippines.

    On the other hand the Japanese are trying to frame China as planning to do a Crimea on Diaoyu/Senkaku. You can see my comments here http://tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/will-china-make-diaoyus-senkakus-japans-crimea/

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