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IDF Intercepts Iranian Shipment of Rockets to Terrorist Organizations in Gaza
Early this morning, the Israel Navy undertook a complex & covert mission. Our forces intercepted an Iranian shipment of advanced weapons intended for terrorist organizations in Gaza. The IDF forces exposed Syrian-made M-302 surface-to-surface missiles, which are capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
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Above you see photos that were posted on the Israeli Defence Force Flickr site this morning.
My take is that Israel is now in the process of laying out the case for a near future strike on Iran.
It might not be a "nuclear program killer" but I fully expect some type of punitive raid on military facilities. You heard it here first. A simple post on the internet is the first block in building the case for military action. I expect it to occur near the elections this fall. The Israeli conservatives will want to boost US conservatives before the election and this will be a huge black eye for the Obama administration.
Instant talking point? We couldn't trust the US, led by the Obama administration, to properly deal with the Iranian threat...so Israel had to act alone.
We'll see if I'm right in a few months.
It would be symbolic at best because they don't have the ability to inflict enough damage.
ReplyDeleteAnd it would be dangerous.
What if certain Arabs turn a blind eye to the IDF flying over their territory but on the return leg decide to take umbrage. Not only would the Saudi's, Jordanians or whoever be letting the IDF hit Iran, they could force Israeli F-16's out of the air and look like heroes to their people.
I have to think the IDF has conventional warheads for their cruise missiles, too. And they should have some sort of air-launched cruise missile we don't know of that they could launch while over Saudi or Iraqi airspace.
Still, the Iranians have been hardening sites for a decade. They've probably been rehearsing how to make targets look lucrative and stashing anti-air assets and passive detection systems along likely routes.
And they've been planning indirect ways of retaliation as well. Hezbollah and Quds terrorist attacks, etc.
Then the economic impact: Oil market is tight for the rest of the world (nevermind the US petroleum and gas market) and we could see major impact of Iran just turning off their oil for a month and watch the price per barrel of brent crude skyrocket, A fragile world economy.
I'm not against hitting Iran (though we don't need another war in the ME), but there are too many variables and too much unintended blowback.
you're thinking like an American. try it out as an Israeli. first, who cares about the Saudi and Jordanian air forces. they're impotent. electronic countermeasures will see the strike packages there and back without problem. that's been tested time and time again.
Deleteas far as higher oil and gas prices? we saw the extent of whats possible with the Russian move into Ukraine. its an empty threat. the worldwide economy is slowing down. there will be profit taking but thats it and it won't last long. supply and demand won't allow it. users of these products have shown that they will conserve like only Jimmy Carter would dream when pushed into a corner by big oil.
last but not least if you're an Israeli you're looking at Iran as a real deal threat to your nations survival. they are already doing things to hurt your nation and they have not paid a price and thanks to the American presiden they don't even have sanctions anymore.
someone must put the Persians back into their cage and its up to the Israeli's. that's what they're thinking.
Sol, there are a great many Israeli's who think differently as well so there is just one Israeli position; It's not just the Bebe Netanyahu Show broadcasting 24/7, this topic is as hotly debated as any issue.
DeleteOf course, I could be totally wrong about Israel's weaponry, too. They were the first to do small UAV' and develop drones in a big way. Who is to the say they haven't taken a squadron of mothballed F-16As and reburbed them as drones with the expectation they are going on a one way trip.
I'm not debating Iran is a threat, my doubts lie more along the lines of what can a few airstrikes do to Iran? It would be symbolic pinpricks at best.
What is the cost vs. benefit? Can the hits to Israeli aircraft, prestige, world opinion be worth the hits inflicted on Iran? Will those hits even be effective
I'm not thinking Israel would try to use weapons smuggling into Gaza as an excuse to bomb Iran...mainly because if they tried to use "We're bombing Iran to stop arms from coming into Gaza", then a strike would be publicly judged a failure since you'd have to destroy pretty much the entire Iranian military to accomplish that goal.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, the presence of advanced rockets in Gaza could absolutely raise the likelihood of another Israeli invasion into Gaza. The M-302 is a serious rocket and the Israeli's seem to have a strategy where every couple of years the Gazans get just a few too many rockets/advanced systems for Israel to remain comfortable...so they go in and destroy as much of Hamas's fighting capability as possible in order to push the status quo back into Israel's favor. The M-302 is the biggest rocket I've heard of so far being smuggled into Gaza, and you've got to think that if Israel intercepted this shipment then how many got through undetected?