It just dawned on me.
Russia is the lynchpin of Obama's Middle East foreign policy. Syria? Iran? Israel? The entire Middle East policy will collapse (as its currently constructed) without Russian cooperation.
The way things are headed, Syria will receive increased arms from Russia, that means that the rebels will need increased assistance which will mean even more refugees in Jordan and Turkey...Jordan could collapse...Turkey could see increased attacks from Kurdish forces. You can stick a fork in getting the rest of those Chemical Weapons out of Syria too.
Iran? Forget about it. Any thought that they had of stopping nuclear enrichment is a done deal (if they actually considered it in the first place). So that means that the dreaded fight between Iran and Israel is back on. Israel will strike because they no longer trust this administration. That means Iraq will be pulled into the fray because it will be the an "overflight" country.
If they do nothing Iran will screw with them. If they attempt to stop Israel, the Israeli's will make dog food out of them. Iraq is done.
Oh and Israel. They're between a rock and a hard place. The only thing that unites the Arab world is hatred of Israel. They had a grace period where the peaceniks were ascendant. Those days are over. Its back to a full wartime footing for that state.
The Middle East is about to become a cesspool. Thanks Mr. President.
Russia is the lynchpin of Obama's Middle East foreign policy. Syria? Iran? Israel? The entire Middle East policy will collapse (as its currently constructed) without Russian cooperation.
The way things are headed, Syria will receive increased arms from Russia, that means that the rebels will need increased assistance which will mean even more refugees in Jordan and Turkey...Jordan could collapse...Turkey could see increased attacks from Kurdish forces. You can stick a fork in getting the rest of those Chemical Weapons out of Syria too.
Iran? Forget about it. Any thought that they had of stopping nuclear enrichment is a done deal (if they actually considered it in the first place). So that means that the dreaded fight between Iran and Israel is back on. Israel will strike because they no longer trust this administration. That means Iraq will be pulled into the fray because it will be the an "overflight" country.
If they do nothing Iran will screw with them. If they attempt to stop Israel, the Israeli's will make dog food out of them. Iraq is done.
Oh and Israel. They're between a rock and a hard place. The only thing that unites the Arab world is hatred of Israel. They had a grace period where the peaceniks were ascendant. Those days are over. Its back to a full wartime footing for that state.
The Middle East is about to become a cesspool. Thanks Mr. President.
The Arab fears the Persian more than the Israeli. I think in a pragmatic sense the real powers in the Arab states know Israel. Know if you f*ck them about and they will f*ck you about twice as bad. Israel is a useful diversion for them. They know that Israel is the real counter to Iran in the region however many planes and ships they buy from the West.
ReplyDeleteAll very complex.
Big fear for me is an Islamic Turkey. Europe would have to get off its arse then.
i dont think the president has done anything wrong or done anything another president wouldnt do, many of these are out of his hands and with the war weary US population its tying his hands. i also wouldnt say that stepping up arms shipments to syria is a done deal, russia is looking at serious financial issues, so not sure it can afford it at this rate they are going, they paid out the ass for olympcs.
ReplyDeleteYup, Obama has screwed the pooch on this one, but then foreign policy is not Barack's forte is it?
ReplyDeleteMuch as Roosevelt's democrats cut US military spending to the bone then threatened and implemented sanctions against a very military type government in Japan for actions in china which got us attacked in port that December morning long ago.
His type of clown seeing more value in posturing, brag and boast with threats than actually military power to back up thier loose mouth and hot air.
seems like one of our good presidents (I could swear they used to make 'em) had some advice on that subject.... pretty much exactly the opposite of that
Deletegee I bet Putin is cursing up a storm... that he didn't get to wait 5 or so more years for our forces to deteriorate some more for him. We can't cut any of the current force if we want to have any credible conventional deterrent. With out a good conventional deterrent we would (back in the day, at least) rely on our nuclear deterrent, but I have a hard time thinking of any leader we've had since first George Bush who would have the balls to use it. We loose any ability to influence events at all. I really hope enough people wake up and realize that they aren't just voting for american top idol or whatever...
ReplyDeletethe mid east is already a cess pool. tell me something new.... bout they had a good ol war to put them whole region back a decade or two...
ReplyDelete