I've been watching the issues in Crimea/Ukraine and suffice it to say I'm not impressed.
1. The United States has been proven to be impotent.
2. The EU, UK and NATO has been proven to be impotent.
3. This action is accomplished. Anything the US/UK/EU does from this point on is meaningless. The deed is done.
4. The Chinese are taking notes and will act. The same issues that prevent our aiding the Ukraine apply to Taiwan. I expected them to take some of the smaller islands first. I now think thats wrong. I expect a push on Taiwan to occur first and then a move on the disputed islands.
It is enough to say that US foreign policy is in shambles...even more worrying? The most powerful nation on this planet is being led by a group of naive neophytes.
1. The United States has been proven to be impotent.
2. The EU, UK and NATO has been proven to be impotent.
3. This action is accomplished. Anything the US/UK/EU does from this point on is meaningless. The deed is done.
4. The Chinese are taking notes and will act. The same issues that prevent our aiding the Ukraine apply to Taiwan. I expected them to take some of the smaller islands first. I now think thats wrong. I expect a push on Taiwan to occur first and then a move on the disputed islands.
It is enough to say that US foreign policy is in shambles...even more worrying? The most powerful nation on this planet is being led by a group of naive neophytes.
hi I'm from Brazil and a big fan of your blog and in my opinion in the same way that the EU needs Russian gas , the Russians need to sell gas to the EU . The Russians rely on substantial imports of EU wheat . In addition , of course , Ukraine . Europe is investing heavily in alternative energy sources is not for nothing . Do not want to depend on Russian gas.
ReplyDeleteMassive investments were made in LNG systems (Liquid Natural Gas - Liquefied Natural Gas ) as an alternative to Russian gas .
A Russian attack on Ukraine accompanied by an embargo of gas to the EU will be disastrous for the Russians in the long run , because the Europeans will invest more in alternative energy sources in order to get rid of this dependence .
Quickie from Wiki : Ukraine has a reserve force of 1,000,000 men , plus more than 11,000,000 available to swell the army , if necessary . Not to mention the Air Force , with more than 200 fighters and bombers , although many of its aircraft are stored
Understand why I say that Ukraine is not Georgia ?
IMHO , the Russians want to secure control of Sevastopol . About securing control of Sevastopol ensures control of the Black Sea , and has a base of naval and air operations against American bases in Turkey and Greece .
The maps where the maps : http://dickschmitt.com/travels/black-sea/overview/large_Images/sevastopol-map-gnu-wiki.jpg
Watch how Sevasotopol , Greece and Turkey are close . A Su -27 goes back and still have kerosene in the tanks .
Sevastopol was the main Russian naval base since the time of the Crimean War , including having passed through a siege of one year ( September 1854 - September 1855 ) , where his fall determined the Russian defeat .
Remember that Sevastopol was also home to the legendary Black Sea Fleet during I / II World Wars and during the Cold War .
Even with the independent Ukraine , in practice, the Russians had indirect control of Sevastopol , since the Ukrainian political leaders were pro-Russian . But the flight of former President Yanukovych and the implementation of a pro-EU government has totally changed this situation , and Putin will not risk losing control of the Black Sea.
But he also will not go there. Not a beast .
It is not in the US's interest to act directly in Crimea. Ukraine is also not a member of NATO. This is more about the future of Europe, so the EU needs to get its sh*t together and act, but then Russia could cut off the gas supply. It's rough to have bad neighbors.
ReplyDeleteAs for China, they are indeed watching. The difference is that the US has vital interests at stake in the Pacific, as well as treaty obligations. The US should make it clear through its rhetoric that any encroachment by China in the territories or EEzs of its neighbors, or other violation of UNCLOS is unacceptable.
U.S. will get only the conversation has too many lice to scratch with Iran, Syria, North Korea and Chinese, saw someone writing that the Russian secret service and the leaked U.S. Secretary Victoria Nuland F ***** EU .
ReplyDeletethe difference between taiwan and crimea is taiwan has 100 miles of water seperating it and china, that will be huge obstacles and they can do a clan destined invasion like russia initially did for Crimea and didnt have a base from which to launch attacks. while china is watching we have more assets in the pacific to respond than we do on the black sea. i dont think we are impotent so much as we dont have forces close to Ukraine to intervene, and Russia is playing a dangerous game, china will wait a while to see what happens politically, Russia may isolate itself so much it gets hurt economically in the future.
ReplyDeleteGiven the recent talks between Taiwan and China, it would probably not ever be necessary, there will be a peaceful reunification in time to come. They are drifting closer and closer. That is why I think the US should not be selling any more high technology items to Taiwan. It will fall into Chinese hands. Obsolete or known weapons would be alright.
ReplyDeleteThere is one more thing. Ukraine had some nukes they inherited from USSR. By mid 90´s US and UK agreed to protect Ukraine. In return, Ukraine would give up on those nukes. Well, Ukraine did their part in the deal... if US and UK won´t, them you can predict a nuclear arms race around the world.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if this crisis will shake up the 2016 U.S Presidential election. Maybe a dark horse will arise pitching himself as a strong counter to Putin - with military experience to back it up.
ReplyDeleteOn the short term, sure, it's not a problem for the US. It's Europe's problem, and Putin knows too well how deep is the West in his pockets, it's not just gas and energy, Russian oligarchs have billions invested in the Western economy. Besides, It's a general opinion that the only response the Russians recognize is brute force, either military or economical. Neither is an alternative right now. Sure, they'll rattle their swords, they will threat with some economical measures or some bullshit about isolating Russia, but it's all smoke.
ReplyDeleteHowever, we've already seen what lack of backbone can do, remember WWII? It only takes the will of one man to change the course of history, and Putin can be that man.
In longer term is also problem of US, if "the most powerful country in the world" again will act like pussy and ignore not only international law but also treaty that they guarantee existence it will bite US in the ass really fast. As Sol said, China and whole world observe how US will act.
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