First...a couple of quotes from "The Hunt For Red October" that seem applicable...
As critical as I've been of the administration approach, its become apparent that they have been operating behind the Russians decision cycle since the beginning...and they haven't been able to catch up.
Sanctions won't work. Europe is too tied and too dependent on corrupt Russian money and natural gas. Additionally it will be the first real deal dismantling of the globalization scheme.
The missing airliner is opera. Tragic, and heartbreaking but opera none-the-less. The Ukraine situation is history. Course changing history.
"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
&
"Ruskies don't take a dump without a plan, son".via Russan Times.
Ukrainian heavy military equipment, including armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles are heading towards the Russian border, while the eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk are protesting the entry of Ukrainian military hardware.When you have two opposing military forces in close proximity, bad things can happen. One pissed off Patrol Leader, Company Commander, Battery Commander etc...can start festivities. Those in power are not capable of properly dealing with this situation.
As critical as I've been of the administration approach, its become apparent that they have been operating behind the Russians decision cycle since the beginning...and they haven't been able to catch up.
Sanctions won't work. Europe is too tied and too dependent on corrupt Russian money and natural gas. Additionally it will be the first real deal dismantling of the globalization scheme.
The missing airliner is opera. Tragic, and heartbreaking but opera none-the-less. The Ukraine situation is history. Course changing history.
Last time we played that game world burn with fires of war for 6 years.
ReplyDeleteIf things got out of control I'm afraid I will hear about another Gleiwitz incident and my last entry here will be "Good luck boys, I got a mobilization ticket, maybe we will meet in better place".
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers.
DeleteFor he today that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition.
And gentlemen in England now abed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
Read more at http://quotes.dictionary.com
i hope it doesn't come to that Shas, but i'd check my gear anyway.
DeleteGleiwitz Incident.
DeleteFranciszek Honiok
Polish farmer, unmarried and Catholic.
Arrested by SS and carried to a Polish radio station, which was attacked by the SS.
Franciszek was then shot in the forehead and dressed in a Polish Army uniform and left as proof Polish soldiers had attacked the radio station.
Franciszek Honiok, The first person to die in world war two.
Sadly, Ukraine might not survive because our President is not up to the task. It's easy to drop hellfires on mud huts and pound your chest, proclaiming what a tough guy you are killing Al Qaeda's 'n' shit, but it's another thing entirely trying to face down a major military power. Obama doesn't have the balls or brains to back up the Ukraine by leading the West, but that isn't surprising because nobody in the West has the stomach for military action unless its killing insurgents in some hot, dusty land where they can pretend nothing is happening.
ReplyDeleteI think the best we can hope for is Russian doesn't do anything else. The second best is that there are similar referendums in Easter Ukraine and a negotiated settlement gives Russia those oblast East of the Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk line.
With those Russian-dominated provinces, it's going to be hard for Kiev to wage a war with pro-Russian insurgents sabotaging rail and road connections.
Putin has the European and American leaders by the shorthairs. i have never seen such an inept foreign policy in my lifetime. i really don't understand teh crowd in charge right now.
DeleteYou wishing that good ole cheney, bush and rumsfeld were back in powere now ?
DeleteFor all of Bush's flaws, Putin used to look twice before taking a dump like this.
Corrupt Western governments defending the rights of Ukrainians meets realpolitik.
ReplyDeleteNot worth one serviceman's life. Not worth disrupting our life for what is an historical correction of borders.
The Ukrainian middle classes pushing for EU membership don't care about the Ukraine. They care about getting out of the east to the job markets of Germany and the government benefit offices of the UK.
I find the stories of EU funded protesters and shadowy armed figures (CIA?) frightening.
I think the new Ukrainian are to use current UK vernacular, dodgy.
Nuclear weapons off the table I think the European part of NATO could fight and win a LIMITED war with Russian and win or achieve a good draw. But to what end?
I see next year several large exercises in the Baltic states, but I can'[t see what Putin would gain from moving against those states. Despite what some here would like us to believe Putin isn't stupid. I think the reason why many Western politicians are struggling to cope with situation is,
1) Really being a Western politician isn't about representing a people or even leadership but more about building a career (amassing money) for themselves.
2) They have limited view of politics beyond the head line articles of faith for which ever creed they supposedly follow. Conviction politics, honest action, and violence of action are beyond their ken.
2a) Belief in international law as something tangible is endemic. That it something akin to the law of a state. It isn't. You can judge the naivety of anyone commenting on politics and the international situation by how much emphasis they give to the term international law. Listen to Obama and the EU and the sub-text is that Putin broke the rules, but whose rules?
2b) The hypocrisy is staggering. The US went into Panama and Grenada for their own ends with much more violence. Obama is sanctioning drone strikes in Pakistan weekly. Rightly or wrongly the US use force. If anything the Crimea situation is more clear cut; well it would be if the US and EU owned up to fanning the flames which they won't.
3) If they can't cope with Russia what of China?
you're onto something about the protests. i haven't dug into it but if i recall correctly this thing switched from a protest into an agreement for reforms and then into a change of government. the whole thing seems fishy in hindsight.
Deletehttp://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/02/17/us-eu-paying-ukrainian-rioters-protesters-paul-craig-roberts/
DeleteI expect government spooks to get up to games. Most of the time it is the way things are done beyond diplomacy. And I don't buy into Russian propaganda and I don't buy into US/EU propaganda either.
I think the US and EU saw a quick win. Money, NGOs, and a bit of skullduggery and Russia would be flanked. It hasn't worked. One because not all the Ukranians want to be Western. Shocking but true. Apparently there is more to life than iPods and a car. Two because the Russia (and by extension China) use a different play book. Whoever signed this off in the State Department, the Bundesminister des Auswärtigen, and in the EU is naive and ignorant. In the Cold War it would have ended in all of us being fried.
Not condoning anything. Not supporting Russia. But I wish those bleating their indignation would look at "our" side first and question what "we" have done before ranting at Russia.
One last thought. Partition of the Ukraine will lead to a population shift. One of the central planks of EU thinking is free movement and resettlement. Let those Ukrainians in the east or west move, or put up with it. That has been their way for hundreds of years they should be used to it by now.
I can't stomach our politicians talking about freedoms in the Ukraine while ours here are being trodden up on.
Ukraine is intact and to remain intact physically they must yield to a stronger force and not rely on promises of Europe's elite nor Chicago's mob currently in operation in Washington D. C.
ReplyDeleteWould you trust POTUS for anything in light of Ambassador Stevens and Benghazi?
Ukraine must wait for better times and a better set of allies or face destruction and depopulation.
US politician's are a greater enemy to Ukraine than any Russian Motor Rifle regiment.