Reports have come out today that the size of the forces on the border with Ukraine has increased from 30,000 to over 80,000.
Everyone that I've read, has talked about them capturing slices of the country.
But what if they want the whole loaf?
What if they're after the entire country?
This weekend will be interesting. I wonder if they've (meaning both NATO and Russia) war gamed the possibility and what it looked like.
This weekend might be interesting.
Everyone that I've read, has talked about them capturing slices of the country.
But what if they want the whole loaf?
What if they're after the entire country?
This weekend will be interesting. I wonder if they've (meaning both NATO and Russia) war gamed the possibility and what it looked like.
This weekend might be interesting.
Shades of the Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia. And of course, that will also mean $27 Billion from the IMF is down the tubes too.
ReplyDeletequite honestly it would actually be a brilliant move by Putin.
Deletehe would make Obama seem impotent as well as the German, UK, and French leaders. he would push many of the smaller countries into making moves that would weaken their economies making them easier to take over at a later date.
and the best reason of all? OIL PRICES WOULD SPIKE! Russian petro dollars would flow like a river despite sanctions and he would make money hand over fist.
and if Russia takes Ukraine, I can easily see Belarus being 'invited' to re-join the Russian Federation.
DeleteThe only thing standing in the way of Russia and protecting the West could be Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. The West better wake up or it's going to have one of the worst 'Oh, Shit' moments in history.
I think Vlad could take the Eastern parts and hold them without too much trouble but I don't think the entire Ukraine would work. Just too much could go wrong, not even sure Crimea might be that easy to hold over the long term. Once they start moving Tatars out of their land and houses, you might see some serious Muslim radicalization and that could turn nasty quick. It's not like the region isn't famous for insurgence, contra band, smuggling and anti Russian sentiment....I'm sure the Tatars and the likes would get money, training and weapons if they haven't already started getting support.
ReplyDeleteI've been struck by the discipline and training of the Russian forces. Numerous assaults on bases and ships with a few casualties. Hard to do. Maybe we are seeing Russian special forces in the Crimea while the Russian regular army is on the Ukraine/Russian border.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand what the Ukrainian military is doing. Why are they not putting up a fight? Are they pro-Russian?
ReplyDeletesome of the USSR's greatest military leaders came from the Ukraine. but they've been downsizing their military in the belief that it wouldn't be needed again and I believe if you count Russian forces in Crimea and massed on their borders then they're outnumbered and not as well equipped.
Deletesimply put there isn't much the Ukrainian military can do.
The Ukrainian troops in Crimea recognized that they were hopelessly outnumbered and surrounded. Surrendering their positions without bloodshed was the prudent thing to do, as Russia could have used armed confrontation in Crimea as an immediate excuse for invasion of mainland Ukraine. The Ukrainians likely also recognized that they did not have immediate forces available to liberate Crimea, and have been instead focused on preparing defensive positions against an imminent Russian advance and mobilizing reserves. The biggest blunder I think their leadership made was not immediately evacuating all naval assets that could make sea as soon as reports of Russian troops moving into Crimea started coming out. They hesitated, and because of that lost nearly their entire Navy.
DeleteAs far as whether or not Russia intends to invade all of Ukraine, I think it's certainly possible but I doubt the Russians have the capability to do so. The Russian army is actually smaller than the U.S army, and they have not conducted a deep opposed invasion of a foreign country since 1945. I think trying to take all of Ukraine would severely stretch Russia's logistical capability, making their rear vulnerable to air attack. I also think that Poland might intervene in such a scenario...either through direct deployment of troops or by letting Ukrainian Air Force assets fly missions out of Polish territory. If the reports on the interwebs of Polish mobilization are true then I think we have to consider the possibility that Polish leadership might secretly be planning to aid the Ukraine in event of full on hostilities breaking out.
Poorly led, poorly equipped, poorly prepared.
DeleteIt's been underfunded ad there are a huge amount of ethnic Russian serving in its ranks. I heard a Ukrainian guy being interviewed on the BBC a couple of weeks ago saying he thought the Ukrainian military has been mis-managed by pro-Russian general officers. I don't know if that is true, but it might have some merit considering all of the ethnic Russians in the military.
then there is the leadership vacuum in Kiev. New government, new leaders, no clear understanding as to what should be done.
Ukraine, the country of two slices from history.
ReplyDeleteEastern Part = Little Russians
Western Part = Eastern Poles
If Russia, tries to get into the western part of the Ukraine there will be a major Polish intervention. If Russia stays in the east or just Crimea it will be more of a military aid aspect.
Looks like it's 50k troops next to the border, could be an interesting weekend...or maybe Vlad decides to keep them there just to mess with US and NATO.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702303779504579465830294243784-lMyQjAxMTA0MDIwNzEyNDcyWj
Chechnya
ReplyDeleteA little postage stamp of a province in Russia that caused a decade of headaches for the Russian military. A population of less than 2,000,000 in a land mass the size of Connecticut took 100,000 Russian soldiers.
Considering all the RPGs, ATGWs, Mortars and sniper rifles that would be awash in the Ukraine after an invasion, the Russians would have a long, drawn-out and expensive war.
If I was President, I'd have 10th SFG liaising with Ukraine's military, send an A-10 wing to Poland and Romania backed up by two wings of F-16s or F-15s, and a couple squadrons of F-22s. Tankers, AWACs, JSTARs, etc. If every other NATO nation with an Air Force committed a squadron, you'd have a very large air component.
I can't imagine the logistics of trying to operate alongside of Ukraine. Just the air war, with IFF, SAM systems, radars, radios, etc. would be a nightmare because you'd be going against almost identical Russian aircraft.
Let's say each sizable NATO nation then also send a mechanized brigade: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Belgium, Canada, Turkey, Portugal, Greece. I'd expect the Eastern NATO countries on the border with Ukraine to send at least a brigade: Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania.
The thing is, even with NATO, I can't see Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, etc sending in their military even if a NATO country was invaded, article 5 or not. I think NATO is a paper tiger. Some of the members are game, but some are just in it because they are too lazy to quit it.
I think all of this is just about putting pressure on everybody: the US, EU, NATO and the immediate neighbors. In Romania (i don't know if this went international) there's a joke i'll try to translate: who are Russia's neighbors? Well whoever Russia wants to be. Initially, it was about the USSR but these days the joke seems to come back.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, Ukraine's problem is internal. There's a big mess in that country and that's the main reason for their lack of response, just next to the fact that despite it's numbers and hardware existing on papers, it does not have the logistical capacity to engage Russia in a war or even a serious skirmish.
Is it Putin on for the grab of what he can now and deal with the consequences later? Could be. I think that despite his image as a calculated tough guy leader, Putin is a vain man, very resentful because the west, but especially the US treated Russia as only a regional power and a second class state. Because of this, his gestures could reach critical level, without a good plan in hell and that scares the shit out of the Eastern countries.
In Romania we're cleaning our guns and preparing for a stand-off. It's not official, in fact I think the officials are trying to calm thing down, but everyone's worried, well, at least everyone with an eye on things outside our borders.
There is a another reason why Russia won't occupy the Ukraine. It would be to expensive on the long run. Russia has just a population of about 140 million. Half of the Ukraine would just add about 25 million people for whom Russia has to pay higher wages and would hardly add something beneficial to Russia. It would ruin Russia.
ReplyDeleteI therefore would prefer Russia to be responsible for the Ukraine. Today it looks like the EU is going to sending 20€ billion to the Ukraine within the next 2 or 3 years.