Thanks for the link Matthew!
via The Diplomat
With advanced air defense systems being introduced to the region...what happens when you attempt an assault with MV-22's packed with Marines and you have S-400's firing at long range, you have to dodge Pantsir S-1's at medium range and then MANPADS at the landing zone?
We need to have an adult conversation about how we're going to do forcible entry instead of all the cheer-leading.
The S-400 itself is likely to significantly enhance Chinese military power in a number of different contingencies. No country will be more affected by China’s S-400 missile systems, which—with a range of 400 kilometers—experts suggest will allow Beijing to achieve air dominance over the Taiwanese strait. York Chen, a former member of Taiwan’s National Security Council, told Defense News last year: “When S-400s work together with Chinese land- and sea-based fighters, the Chinese will have more confidence in sustaining airspace dominance over the Taiwan theater, thus depriving any organized resistance by the Taiwan Air Force and deterring the American intervention.”Read the entire article but what should be of concern is that the USMC is basing its entire forcible entry capability around vertical assault.
While Taiwan is likely to be the most affected by China’s deployment of S-400s, it will not be alone in having to deal with this new capability. Japan also will have to contend with China’s S-400, which are expected to cover the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The impact the S-400 system will have on Japan’s ability to project power against China will be mitigated somewhat by Tokyo’s procurement of F-35 fighter jet. The joint strike fighters are built with enough stealth to operate in environments with advanced air defense systems.
With advanced air defense systems being introduced to the region...what happens when you attempt an assault with MV-22's packed with Marines and you have S-400's firing at long range, you have to dodge Pantsir S-1's at medium range and then MANPADS at the landing zone?
We need to have an adult conversation about how we're going to do forcible entry instead of all the cheer-leading.
"The joint strike fighters are built with enough stealth to operate in environments with advanced air defense systems."
ReplyDeleteNope.
Bill Sweetman, Apr 28
New U.S. Stealth Jet Can’t Hide From Russian Radar
America’s gazillion-dollar Joint Strike Fighter is supposed to go virtually unseen when flying over enemy turf. But that’s not how things are working out.
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—the jet that the Pentagon is counting on to be the stealthy future of its tactical aircraft—is having all sorts of shortcomings. But the most serious may be that the JSF is not, in fact, stealthy in the eyes of a growing number of Russian and Chinese radars. Nor is it particularly good at jamming enemy radar. Which means the Defense Department is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to a fighter that will need the help of specialized jamming aircraft that protect non-stealthy—“radar-shiny,” as some insiders call them—aircraft today.
Yep, Mr. Civilian Bill Sweetman has insider access to the full capabilities of both the S-400 radar and the F-35 stealth systems....
DeleteYep, them civilians ar reel stoopid.
DeleteWell, dont discount Bill Sweetman's views. He does have valuable insight and a life time spent observing all the little things that people generally miss to observe
DeleteMeh...they already have the HQ-9. This just diversifies their assets, so now we have to figure out how to defeat two top-line systems instead of one.
ReplyDeleteAnd in case anyone's wondering how we should defeat such advanced systems...just take a page out of the Iranian's book and swarm 'em with targets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD
Works both ways.
DeleteThis means we'll have to go back to the old paradigm for naval and marine air. The one developed during the War in the Pacific where you use a hammer to smash each element of the enemy's forces and peel the defenses like a siege conducted by strong air and sea assets. That is going to take fleet interceptors, air defense, attack air craft, long range bombardment, and a major commitment to sea and air dominance. Something tells me the F35 just is just not going to cut it.
ReplyDeleteagreed. i've always thought that we need to concentrate on doing the old skool thing of creating corridors for runs into the beach to land our Marines. the same concept applies to the air campaign.
Deleteno silver bullet is available. we're going to get hit and we're going to have to hit back harder.
What is the US Govt. went on an overdrive with the B-2's. Producing more, strengthing more forward air bases for their usage etc. ?
DeleteI mean, just imagine the chinese reaction to a 20-30 B-2's stationed in the pacific theatre who continously change their airbases not as one Squadron but as split up elements. The chinese would go mad trying to lock on to them in Guam, Korea, Japan, Phillipines, Taiwan, Singapore etc. The logistical implications of a Marauding Viking Squad of B-2's would leave Chinese AA chaps stark raving mad.
DeleteSarab, they US govt prefers to irrationally focus on the F-35 rather than proven systems such as the Raptor and the B-2. I agree that they should have restarted these two instead, but oh well.
DeleteLet me get this straight, Putin has written of 90% of North Korean debt. Putin has approved the release of S-400 for China.
ReplyDeleteHmmm ... I know this sounds like conspiracy "theory" to a lot of people but I would say Putin is retaliating for the Obama's response to the Ukraine.
Actually I would say the Russians have got what they planned all along. It is a two for one deal. They caught the US and Germany (lets be real here) playing silly games. Gave them grounds to take Crimea and then gave them "legitimate" grounds to retaliate in Asia. I think your State Department is staffed by the likes of Pee Wee Herman, Wiley Coyote, and Donald Duck. The Germans shouldn't be allowed out of Germany, Amateur hour all around. You Americans deserve a lot better.
Deletesome of us deserve better. some of us are 100% idiots.
DeleteMark Kram,
DeleteActually the deal was in the works long before the Crimean crisis.
Basically, Russia wants to pipe its gas through North Korea->South Korea->China, instead of piping directly to China, because the prices for China would be set at Korean market prices instead of a big volume discount demanded by the Chinese.
Another project is the railway connection to ship containers from Korea and Japan via the Trans-Siberian Railway, which would be very competitive because it would deliver goods to Europe 5 times faster than shipping would and Russia gets to make a billion dollars in railway fees connecting Europe and Far East each year.
And the single road block to that dream was guess what, North Korea. So Russia is offering this deal to let them lay gas pipes and connect railways through North Korea.
Steve and Slowman,
DeleteOk, so the NK debt has been a "done deal". What about the S-400? The US, when both were still in good terms, has been pressuring Russia to stop and/or delay the shipment of this missile complex to China.
What is the real story now?
Besides, I still don't understand why Russia is doing this (other than antagonize the west). Russia knows all too well China buys a few units and then copies the system, flips it around and sells them at cheaper than Russian prices.
In about two years time, China will be able to parade a new missile system that looks, flies and talks like an S-400!
Japan would be better putting up more recce satellites and building a stealth cruise missile in good quantities. They are never ever going to want to land on the Asian mainland; they just need a means of reaching out to interdict China. A good anti-ship missile too; something like BrahMos in performance. Take a lesson from the Swedish playbook. Hardened shelters. Mobile launchers.
ReplyDeletei like that idea. thats a solid plan. but they're caught up in the American way of war and aren't thinking clearly.
Deletethe ones to watch are the Singaporeans. they're smart, fiscally responsible and tend not to get caught up in bullshit. they're waiting on the F-35 and i think thats the smart way to do it.
Japan can't do that.
DeleteNot only do they not have the requisite industry, Article 9 is still in effect which forbids long range strike weapons.
Plus, Japan can barely field enough troops as it is as their population is in freefall and the median age in Japan is 55 or so.
haha, finally someone is talking about the BrahMos. Now that is one missile system that adds serious firepower to knock out capital assets. 290/500 KM range and supersonic to boot with a circular error probability of less than 12 feet. I am keenly awaiting more news about the Su-30 mounted version currently undergoing trials in India. Its a pity we wont be able to export any to Japan though.
DeleteThough if that Su-30 trial does work out well with the BrahMos, the "Asian Flood(heheh)" of Sukhois will be a nice market. Imagine the Liaoning navigating through waters it knows have so many potential threats.
DeleteTHATS THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO FOR ANY WARSHIP! an all compass attack by supersonic anti-ship missiles? thats why the Navy went to vertical launch of its anti-air missiles. the old single and double arm was just too slow. i'm not worried about the capital ships in the first wave. its the escorts that will get clobbered. the second and third day are when the heavies start going down.
DeleteJapan is about to take a dump on Article 9.
DeleteThey already have supersonic anti-ship missiles in the development pipeline, the (X)ASM-3. They just removed the weapons export ban, so now their defense industry is going to be gearing up for export markets and collaborations with other foreign defense manufacturers.
Technically, Germany wasn't supposed to have nukes, but it didn't stop them from having US nukes atop German Pershing 1a missiles. I could see the US and Japan doing something similar with cruise missiles.
But if there's one Type of Weapon System that has dominated all the Talk about war in the pacific now, it has to be the humble "Missile". From the chinese stockpiling 1200 (at last count) against the Taiwanese, to Navy wallas saying 65 miles off shore, the S-400, Missile Defence, North Korean Missile Testing, Missile Mule aircraft and UAV's.....the list is endless. The missile, in its various forms has become the talk of town. How to use it, how to defend against it, how to live with it is on every RIMPAC chap's mind now
Delete@Paralus.
Deleteagreed. the Japanese are the one group of people that are most spooked by Chinese moves. i believe it has to do more with historical racial animosity than anything real but its there none the less.
@Sarabvir.
until they get lasers to work. and until they can get rail guns up and running. lasers will be the defense solution to missiles, no matter what the speed and rail guns will be the offensive punch once they figure out how to do firing solutions for something that goes at hypersonic plus speed.
I cant wait to see what kind of armor is developed to defend against depleted uranium/tungsten carbide rounds fired from a rail gun.
DeleteIt all depends whether you mean Article 9 as a byword for post-WW2 Japanese pacifism or you mean Article 9 as some words printed on a page. The former is going. That the debate in Japan has polarised on the issue to such an extent that groups with extremes have appeared proves it. If you mean the latter if you think governments, no humans, always play by the printed rules then you are a bit naive.
DeleteMy point was that Japan needs to lever its technical base in a sea/air denial strategy against Chinese numbers. Use the geography of the Sea of Japan and East China Sea to its advantage. Use the mountains of Japan to provide cover and its good infrastructure to move material. If Japan doesn't have the technological base to produce missiles then I am not sure who does have it. SSKs in the Sea of Japan and in the Japanese EEZ in the China Sea covered by missiles ashore, in the air, and in ships and all guided by recce assets That leaves the deep game to be covered by the USN. China is containable. China isn't technological match yet for the rest of Asia; perhaps with its system it will never be.
Global Times : F-35 is Chinese carrier and J-20's worst nighmare.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140429000104&cid=1101
Stealth won't go away anytime soon because it's "in" right now, but we will see radars and anti-air getting more and more capable. I'm not a military strategists, just a guy who had an imaginative childhood, and in my opinion the only way to defeat such a threat is massive swarm tactics - you're going to need a lot of drones to defeat modern air defenses.
ReplyDeleteMatt, it should be "lot of cheap drones" to go in and get sacrificed. Unfortunately "cheap" is not a word military procurement is aware of on either side of the Atlantic.
DeleteX-47 is nice, but I wonder how much it will cost once all the "must have" widgets have been added?
Wow. When President Barack Obama said he was going to impose sanctions on the Russian military industrial complex as retaliation for Ukraine, I knew there would be consequences, but I certainly did not expect this. What a perfect way to shake up the region and weaken us and our allies too. The S-400 is a mean system. What's even worse is that our response to the S-400 is the F-35 and I'm sure the Russians know the JSF is a joke.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I don't remember where I read this, but I also heard that the Russians have been developing a whole kit for the SAM systems that defends them from incoming missiles as well. It's focused on shooting our SEAD guys and knocking out any missiles they might fire at the Russian SAMs.
By the way, I don't know if you've seen this before, but there is a Russian propaganda advertisement about their new SAMs and the kits for defeating incoming enemy missiles here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsgQ83irr0o
The Chinese get S-400. Now i know what system India Wont be buying.
ReplyDelete