I've been getting bombarded with news that the Australian government announced that they're buying 58 F-35's.
My reaction?
So fucking what! This isn't news! Its just them fulfilling their planned buy of the airplanes. If you want to really talk about the F-35 then Canada will grab your attention. Italy will be on your mind. The cut by the Netherlands will shock your system.
The Program Manager for this airplane has stated himself that additional foreign orders are needed to push the price down.
Don't expect them.
The program doesn't have anymore
Out of interest, this announcement is for 58 aircraft in ADDITION to the 14 already ordered, so it is actually 72 F-35A aircraft that the Government of Australia has approved to be ordered. You asked Sol only a couple of days ago, where are the orders? Here's one. 72 aircraft to be delivered between 2018 and 2022.
ReplyDeleteAdd that to South Korea's 40, Japan's 42, Israel's 19 and you have a program that is dwarfing anything else in the marketplace.
Come on Sol, no more 'half truths'. F-35 now has confirmed orders of 173 aircraft from Australia, South Korea, Japan and Israel. That doesn't count American orders, Turkish orders, UK orders, Dutch orders and so on.
Name me one other fighter program anywhere that is selling the numbers that F-35 is and then I'll concede this program is in a 'death spiral'.
You think that APA and ELP are "right" somehow. Why don't you ask ELP how "right" he was about F-35 not ever reaching production of 100 aircraft.
Why don't you ask him how "right" he was about JASSM's inevitable cancellation?
Why don't you ask him how "right" he was about the "flood" of Sukhoi fighter jets we were going to see in South East Asia in the 2012 - 2015 timeline? Fact is Super Hornet and F-16 have BOTH outsold the total numbers of Sukhoi's delivered to South East Asia in that timeframe even in Indonesia's case in a country that actually OPERATES Sukhoi fighter jets. Time HAS shown us that F-35 sales are dominating in Asia and Sukhoi et al are not.
If those sorts calls are representative of how "right" these people are Sol, then maybe stopping to breathe and scan for a bit and trying to understand WHY the F-35 is getting these sales when all the "evidence" you see suggests they should be gaining anything but, would be the wiser course at this point...
Sol the "cut" orders have nothing to do with the plane and everything to do with slashed defence budgets in those Countries. Care to mention the fact that Italy slashed it's numbers of Eurofighters too? That it is prematurely ending the lives of it's AMX and Tornado aircraft, over it's earlier plans?
Maybe those decisions are the fault of the Joint Strike Fighter program too... Or maybe they have nothing to do with JSF and everything to do with a country just being unable to afford the same defence capability they once had...
THE GOAL OF THE PROGRAM WAS TO HAVE A STEALTH FIGHTER THAT WAS AS MANEUVERABLE AS AN F-16 AT HIGH SPEED, AN F-18 AT LOW SPEED, CAPABLE OF FIGHTING AND WINNING AGAINST THE BEST THAT THE THREAT FORCES HAD TO OFFER AT A LOW PRICE.
DeleteTHEY NEEDED MASSIVE NUMBERS TO MAKE IT WORK.
THEY STILL HAVEN'T GOTTEN THOSE NUMBERS AND MORE THAN LIKELY WON'T!
please explain the Italian issue if all is well.
Deleteexplain Japan having a requirement for upwards of 100 fighters but buying far fewer.
same with S. Korea.
Jason. you're full of shit and doing the "modern" thing of spinning the truth.
WHERE I COME FROM WE CALL THAT LYING YOUR ASS OFF.
Australia is hundreds of billions in debt. Curious Jason, how many of the aircraft produced to date actually work in a credible manner? Answer: zero. But thank you for the talking points from the model airplane glue sniffing brigade.
DeleteHow many of these aircraft have completed their development Eric? Answer: zero. But thank you for continually pointing out the bleeding obvious. No-one else could possibly understand that a program only roughly 50% of the way through it's development is not yet delivering on it's full promise...
DeleteEver bought a house off the plan Eric? I have, it isn't fun. It's stressful and you've got a lot of risk and a lot on your plate to deal with before you get to enjoy the final product. But you do so because the rewards are worth it and you get what you want, rather than what you can buy.
Last time Australia bought a plane 'off the plan' it was the Wedgetail. After a very troubled development period it is finally coming good. The time before that was the F-111. A very troubled beginning but an excellent capability in the end.
These show why you buy into development programs. Because generally they deliver what you need when off the shelf doesn't.
You just have to accept the risk and keeping working until it delivers what you need. But I guess that just isn't "reality" for you...
I didn't know a Super F-111 was even dreamed up....
DeleteAm I lying about the orders this aircraft IS gaining? No. Are you arguing that a program with HUNDREDS of confirmed orders over the next 8 years is in a 'death' spiral? Yes.
ReplyDeleteWho is the liar here?
Italy I addressed. They are ending the lives of their AMX and Tornado aircraft early. Why? Because they cannot AFFORD to keep flying them. That has NOTHING to do with the F-35.
Italy have reduced their planned Eurofighter orders. Why? Because the aircraft is a dud? Because the program is delayed or because they cannot AFFORD to buy as many as they planned?
Italy is reducing it's order of F-35 because it cannot AFFORD to buy more. Holland is doing the same. However F-35 program HAS picked up 101 aircraft orders (42 for Japan, 40 for South Korea and 19 for Israel) that were NOT in the original plan.
Only in this bizarro world you've decided to inhabit does orders for 100 fighter aircraft become meaningless. IF Gripen, Super Hornet, Rafale, Typhoon or any Sino-Russian fighter attracted orders for 100 aircraft, you'd be singing it's praises and announcing all sorts of marvelous predictions about it. But of course apart from the Rafale in India they haven't. Not even close.
But when JSF actually DOES it, apparently it doesn't mean anything and the program is failing...
Oh and as for the F-35's alleged lack of capability, seems the customers don't agree because the orders just keep rolling in. Think the USAF doesn't know what it's talking about? What about the RAF or the RAAF. Maybe the Israeli's don't really understand what it takes for a combat aircraft to be "good"? Yeah, maybe...
Sorry, but I'll take the word of a customer who is test flying these puppies RIGHT NOW over the word/s of a semi-anonymous blogger ANY day of the week...
Jason. these are the PM's words not mine....
DeleteAnytime anyone moves airplanes to the right, the price goes up.”
The surest way to lower cost, he said, is to bring in more foreign buyers into the program.
additionally we can look at what the US Navy, USAF and USMC have done to keep this program going.
The US Army has basically been butt fucked but thats another story. lets talk USAF. how many airplanes are being retired prematurely to keep this program going? that alone tells you what you need to know.
everything must die so this plane lives and even that won't be enough. remember the F-22. it originally had 1500 orders.
Sol, the F-22 only ever planned 750 aircraft. That was at it's most optimistic. It was in a death spiral and was capped at 180 odd aircraft. Where is the F-35's 'cap'?
DeleteIt isn't there.
Has the program been executed perfectly? No of course it hasn't. Have the numbers that were earlier projected been ordered? No.
Is the program in danger? No.
What's happening to the F-35 is the same thing that has happened to every other modern fighter project. Aims aren't being met through reduced resources.
How many Eurofighters have been cut, compared to original plans? Did the UK not shelve aircraft fleets to try and sustain it's existing and planned fighter force? (Harrier, F-3 Tornado, Jaguar all gone...)
THIS is the state of play. F-35 is losing orders because many countries (but clearly not all as seen with Australia) can no longer afford what they once thought they could. Will the original 3000 aircraft eventually exist?
Maybe not. But don't get too excited, this thing will still sell in the thousands, so like it or not, you are stuck with it. It ain't going anywhere.
Cancellations and cost increases, whilst undesirable, do not mean a 'death-spiral'. Some examples:
ReplyDeleteThe F-22 Raptor - original order was to be 650 aircraft. This was then reduced to 381. This was finally reduced to 183 with resulting unit price increases. End result? They still bought them. They are still flying them.
The V22 Osprey - massive cost overruns during design stage, serious reliability issues and fatal crashes during development, big increase in cost per aircraft in production. End result? They still bought them. They are still flying them. And now Israel and Japan want to buy them too.
B2 bomber - original order was to be 132 aircraft. This was then reduced to 75. This was finally reduced to just 21 with resulting massive unit price increases. End result? They still bought them. They are still flying them.
The Typhoon/Eurofighter - As Jason has pointed out, same thing happened here. Orders were cut, costs rose. They bought them. They are still flying them. They are currently upgrading them.
And so with the F-35. There may not be a many ordered as originally planned, because of that the cost will rise. But with the global economy improving, and so many international partners making cancellation a political impossibility, I'm sure the end result will be similar.
They will still be bought. They will still be flown.
Shhh. Don't tell Sol that despite still being in LRIP the F-35 has more than 300 aircraft already ordered or built. That 10 countries have already ordered the aircraft and as we have seen they are buying it in batches, to suit present economic circumstance and the level of maturity of the program to be able to deliver the capability needed...
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't want to hear such things because he is "right" that the program is in a death spiral. What was that tale about the emperor and his new clothes again?
Careful. With your articulate response, combined with solid reasoning, and backed up with actual evidence, he may call you a 'bitch' or 'a pussy' USING CAPITAL LETTERS...!
DeleteWell I suppose our relationship is improving then, because once he promised to jump on a plane, fly to Australia and do a 'Bane' (from the last Batman film) on me...
Delete:D
damn, the F-35 will over take the Rafale in a year with the number of aircraft built...
Deletewhy are you cheering that when even the block 2B hardware is not even completed and retrofitted to existing aircraft? this is all vaporware! the program itself is fraudulent and to compare it to the Rafale is unfair.
Deletewe're building airplanes while its still in development.
this has never been done before and its obvious that it will never be done again. this whole thing is so criminal that it reeks.
"LOL god damn mate"
Deleteyou just slipped. lying piece of shit.
Malaysia also operates Su-30MKM and not just Indonesia.
ReplyDeleteall 18 of them.....
DeleteYes, and Malaysia will not be able to afford to replace their Mig-29s anytime before 2020.
Never suggested they didn't. However feel free to compare the 36 new Sukhois operated by Malaysia and Indonesia (combined) to the 36 new Super Hornet / Growler's operated / ordered by Australia. Feel free to compare it to the 60 odd F-16's Indonesia has in-service or on order in terms of numbers comparison.
ReplyDeleteThe so-called 'flood' of Sukhois has never happened. It was (ironically enough) 'faith based' idealism put forth by APA and taken up whole-heartedly (but foolishly) by Eric.
But still wrong as history has now shown however.
APA stated that hundreds of Sukhois would fly in the Indic and PacRim region...
DeleteAre YOU ON DRUGS JASON?
Whow many Flankers do Indonesia ,Malasia,China and India operate?AND Vietnam?
That is a shit load of fighters with a range superior to anything in the west...
Well, as of Financial Year 2013-2014, 194 Su-30's have been built by the Indian Govt. alone. Now THAT is a flood. With more to come I am sure.
DeleteThankfully, those Su-30s don't have the range to reach Australia
Delete2c4e4076-bffc-11e3-9e64-000bcdcb2996 - Malaysia only has 18 Su-30s....
DeleteMalaysia doesn't have the cash to replace it's Mig-29s either.
It would be a cold day in hell before Indian, Malay and Indonesian sukhois come to australia on anything more than a training mission. With Mid air refuelers and friendly airports, they have reached all the way to Alaska and then back to India. As did the Jaguars and Mig-21's on the same route.
DeleteNotice I said South East Asia Nuno? Because the last time I looked at a map, Australia wasn't geographically located in South West Asia, nor Northern Asia...
ReplyDeleteAustralia is news because they have dropped their planned F-35 buy down to 72 instead of the original 100.
ReplyDeleteItaly is news because it is now pretty much official that they have cut their order down to 45 from the original 131.
http://www.defenseworld.net/news/10428/Italy_To_Cut_F_35_Order_By_Half__Reports#.U1hptl7va0I
Denmark is news because they have now gone from a "reset" to a full blown competition.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2013-03-22/denmark-pursues-alternatives-f-35
Canada is still news because even if they decide to go with the F-35, there won't be any orders until 2018 at the earliest.
Britain is still news because they are the second largest partner in the JSF program but have yet to commit to anything more than a token buy of a handful of F-35Bs.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26124894
Notice a trend here? The original gang of JSF partners is cutting orders, delaying orders, or looking at other fighters altogether. Other countries, like S. Korea, Japan, and Isreal are buying far less than expected. Mythical fairy buyers, like Singapore and Saudi Arabia aren't even at the kicking tire stage yet.
The F-35 will live on, but it's going to sell slower, and in much lower numbers than promised. Given that the program needs F-16-like sales to keep the price even close to affordable, costs are going to skyrocket once people wise up to the fact that the Cold War shopping spree is over.
I give it 10 more years and maybe a total of 500-1000 jets before production is shut down. Even less if someone (i.e. a Saab/Boeing partnership) comes up with a viable alternative.
Tell you what... You come up with a SINGLE example of a F-35 order being larger than initial LockMart estimate. Just a single one... And I will gladly change my tune.
Delete30% reduction across the board? If Italy (131 down to 45) and the Netherlands (80 down to 37) are any indication, its going to be well over 50%.
JSF sales estimates are based on replacing every F-16, F-18, AV-8, A-10, as well as other jets with the F-35 on a 1:1 basis. This isn't going to happen. No way, no how. Military budgets are shrinking. Even if the F-35 cost the same as an F-16 (instead of 2-3x as much), it still wouldn't approach those wildly optimistic numbers. What happens to the vaunted "economies of scale" when the numbers are cut in half or more?
The F-16 was designed as a good, basic, cheap fighter. It got cheaper due to economies of scale. It sold because a) it's a damn good aircraft, b) alternatives like the F-20 and IAI Lavi were basically squashed, and c) the Cold War was happening.
By contrast, the F-35 is an expensive, complicated, mediocre fighter that relies on little more than (forced) economies of scale to bring the price down. With built in stealth, combined with new, untested tech like its HMD, DAS, and EOTS, the JSF is a textbook example of military gold plating. The overall sales strategy for the F-35 is simple. Get everybody invested early on, stifle all competition, and get as many bought and paid for before everybody realize how shitty it turned out.
Doug,
ReplyDeleteAustralia has always had a phased program of acquiring up to '100' F-35 aircraft. That number was predicated upon the numbers required to equip 4 operational strike fighter squadrons (of 18 nominal aircraft each) plus an Operational Conversion Unit (with another nominal 18 aircraft) plus aircraft for test, development and a maintenance / attrition pool.
The Australia plan was always to replace the legacy Hornet capability of 71 aircraft first with a purchase of 72 aircraft. That is what this announcement is doing.
The remaining tranche (or phase) was to replace the F-111 and now Super Hornet capability. That is where the remaining 'up to' 28 aircraft comes in. There has been no "cut" to Australia's planned order for F-35's whatsoever.
Out of interest, I was wrong earlier when I mentioned 300 aircraft. By 2018, 400 F-35 aircraft will have already been built and ordered...
But keep making wild speculative (and subsequent wrong) swings guys. It's funny watching you constantly revise your 'predictions' when signed contracts keep proving you wrong.
Really bad examples there Jason. People that make up a house plan actually know what they are doing inside of established knowns. And as for 2018, the program will still be at extreme risk...with no milestone C. Interesting how those with all the alleged special access have been wrong on cost, capability and schedule again, and again.
ReplyDelete“It’s about $37 million for the CTOL aircraft, which is the air force variant.”
- Colonel Dwyer Dennis, U.S. JSF Program Office brief to Australian journalists, 2002-
". . . US$40 million dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Media Air Commodore John Harvey, AM Angus Houston, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003-
" . . US$45 million in 2002 dollars . ."
-JSCFADT/Senate Estimates, Air Commodore John Harvey, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003/2004-
". . average unit recurring flyaway cost of the JSF will be around US$48 million, in 2002 dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Press Club Briefing, Air Commodore John Harvey, 2006
". . the JSF Price (for Australia) - US$55 million average for our aircraft . . in 2006 dollars . ."
-Senate Estimates/Media AVM John Harvey ACM Angus Houston, Nov. 2006-
don't point out the reality of the situation to them Eric.
Deleteit took me watching the US Marine Corps budget get evicerated, thousands of combat hardened Marines forced out of service and watching the Commandant lie (about many things actually) about the reason for the delays of the ACV/MPC/AAV Upgrade.
listen to them talk.
reality means nothing. you're dealing with people that are expressing faith. its like religious fanatics that need to be put down in the Middle East. there is no talking to them, you just have to deal with them forcefully or leave them to their own devices.
Eric L Palmer:
Delete"JSF will be killed before it hits 100 airframes."
"JASSM will be killed."
"JSF is too expensive so it needs to be killed and replaced with 3-4 new build aircraft programs using (dumbed down) JSF avionics..."
That is Eric's "reality" Sol. That is the nonsense you are putting your faith in. As mentioned above, if you are so confident this program is failing and it's not a "faith / religious / cult" type belief you have, why are you getting so mad?
Time will show it falling over and failing and your beloved USMC can go back to being the Corps you think it should be?
2c4e4076-bffc-11e3-9e64-000bcdcb2996 = nameless Internet troll. The other thing Jason doesn't mention is that (besides ignoring US F-35 program management problems) once the Australian DMO get their dirty meathooks into a project, it becomes even more high risk.
ReplyDeleteReading only 2....6 one would get the erroneous opinion that the F-35 is actually a proven high-performance airplane without parts falling off of it.
DeleteAs a Finn I can assure that F-35 has very poor chances in Finland.
ReplyDelete1. It's too expensive to buy and maintain(our economy is in crisis)
2. It's unable to meet our wartime doctrine, the way jets are dispersed and used
3. It does not have long range IRST
4. It's politically incompatible with future Swedish military cooperation
5. It does not offer 100% offset deal unlike certain competitor
Also Finland is not going to buy non-ready jets, they will be all fully tested, if you dont have working wartime jet during the competition testing, too bad.
And the way things are going, F-35's combat ready version is never going to be ready by 2020, or 2021, or even 2022. If the base code of the software is a mess, then all systems integrations are in trouble, just like AMRAAM missile has shown. Also due to "design it while you serial build it", code engineers have to cut corners in order to meet deadlines, less time for long term design requirements.
btw. defense minister Haglund is from small 5% language-party, likely to drop from next government, also likely that he has no idea what is Gripen E or F-35A apart from the fact that later is called 5. generation and other is not.
now what you're talking about is REAL news. i paused when i read that the Finnish prime minister was endorsing the F-35. thanks for setting the record straight.
DeleteJokuvaan
DeleteFinland has a great education system is developing critical thinkers and innovators. That's probably why it's so easy for the Fins to see through the bullshit of the F-35.
ENOUGH! IDENTIFY YOURSELF AND YOUR ORGANIZATION OR YOUR POSTS GO AWAY.
DeleteThe USAF Chief Welsh says he doesn't know if the 6th gen F-X jet would even materialize.
ReplyDeleteIn the worst possible case, the USAF will have to battle the swarm of PAK-FA, J-20, and J-31 with the F-35 and that's a bad news.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/top-air-force-general-doesnt-know-if-f-22-successor-will-even-fly/article/2547626
Top Air Force general doesn't know if F-22 successor will even fly
By Joel Gehrke | APRIL 23, 2014 AT 4:28 PM
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh doesn't know if the successor to the F-22 Raptor, the Air Force's fifth generation fighter, will fly.
"I don't even know that it's an airplane," Welsh told reporters Wednesday morning. "I wouldn't try and characterize it or describe it. I have no idea yet what it's going to look like, even is, whether it flies, or whether it's a combination of things — just don't know."
The successor to the F-22 ?......soo soon ? It hasnt even fired a shot in anger nor made a combat scalp.
DeleteThe sucsessor of the F-22 will be a Japanese style Mecha-Tengu. Something that can fly and then convert to an 2-legged walker robot. Thats what Lockheed Martin will have most of your senators believe. Add the word 'Stealth' and 'Low Signature' for instant industrial funding.
DeleteThe headlines are generally misleading:
ReplyDelete--Australia orders 58 new F-35 jets,
--Australia will buy 58 more F-35 Joint Strike Fighters
--F-35 Joint Strike Fighters purchase a $12 billion grand gesture
--Australia to buy 58 new F-35 fighter jets
--Australia to Purchase 58 More F-35 Fighters
Let's see how many F-35's Oz actually procures.
Defense Industry Daily
Additional F-35 orders will begin with 8 aircraft, probably in 2015, and continue over a number of years.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/australia-raises-their-f-35-commitment-023629/
FY2015 would be LRIP-9, to be finalized soon, possibly next month. Current gossip has the foreign buy of faulty F-35A prototypes as 6 Norway, 1 Italy, 7 Israel, 2 Japan, for a total run including US of 57 unproven planes in three variants. We shall see.