"death spiral" in which cuts in orders trigger rising prices that lead to further cuts in orders and ultimately undermine the program.So, the question then becomes. Have we seen cuts in orders for the F-35?
I say we have.
Everyone forgets that the Japanese buy of 42 aircraft is hardly a victory. They had a requirement for 100.The program might continue but we can say that it is in a death spiral....now you ask "how can that be?" Its simple. We're looking at a development and production scheme that has never been done before. If this was a traditional development program then it would have collapsed long ago. But because they're able to push MISTAKE jets through (thank you ELP and APA for the term) they're keeping this walking dead creation alive.
The UK initially wanted 138, now its projected that they might buy fewer than 50.
The Netherlands was interested in buying 85 of the airplanes but now will make due with 37.
Brazil, and India all slipped away and Singapore is being cagey in its views on when if ever it will buy the airplane. And we haven't even talked about the Italians who decreased their buy to 90 airplanes and might go to half that if news reports are to be believed.
Well, I must admit the F-35 program's prospect does look much brighter than it did just a few months ago, with the Aussie orders and Japanese plan to replace the F-15J with the F-35 and defer the F-3 program as the F-2 replacement only.
ReplyDeleteAs of now, only two other western fighter jets in production in the 2020s will be the Gripen E and the KFX.
you like to pound on that point but you will see plenty of other aircraft recieving upgrades etc...additionally the US Navy will be working on a UCAV, and other aviation projects will be going on.
Deletein my opinion you make too big a deal of the Gripen and KFX being the only programs running. the Japanese are working on projects, the Europeans are working on combat UAVs so the beat goes on.
additionally money will be taken out of the F-35 program to pay for getting the F-35's that have already been produced up to the final production standard.
this things prospects aren't as bright as you imagine.
Solomon
DeleteAs I mentioned before, design requirements for UCAVs and manned fighter jets are totally different, with UCAV manufacturers not necessarily able to design manned fighter jets.
You can bet the king of combat drones General Atomics won't be coming out with a manned fighter jet anytime soon, because the expertise of building Predators and Reapers aren't transferable to building fighter jets. Just like what Boeing spokeswoman said, that's it for Boeing's manned fighter jet business once the Super Hornet production stops. All of Boeing's engineering expertise will be lost and Boeing won't be able to build another manned fighter jet a decade later after all the fighter jet engineers are either laid off or are now working on commerical airliners instead.
you've stated that before. i disagree. the Koreans and the Japanese had no experience building fighter but they're planning on it. the Chinese had no experience but they did it. the Israeli's didn't have experience but they designed an airplane, the list goes on.
Deleteif there is a need and money to be made then industry will fill the need. its as simple as that.
Solomon
Delete> the Koreans and the Japanese had no experience building fighter but they're planning on it.
Korea actually built a combat jet before, it's called F/A-50. The original model(Mk I) was engineered by Taiwan's AIDC(Ching Kuo fighter) engineers under the supervision of Lockheed Martin. The F/A-50, dubbed Mk II, looks the same but was completely structurally reengineered locally to be able to carry a 5 ton combat load, plus carries local avionics and weapons integration and testing experience. In other word, Koreans have built a 4th gen combat jet in stealth mode and the same engineers are still in place ready to work on the KFX, and this experience is being used on a flying wing UCAV which is a "black" project and almost nothing is known about it except it is being mentioned by its codename on Parliamentary budget bills and some vague drawings. Strangely enough, Korea that needs some 30 specific technologies to complete the manned KFX does not need any foreign technology for this "black project" UCAV, which confirms that UCAV manufacturers cannot necesarily build manned fighters without a help.
As for Japan, Japan has a long history of building post-war combat/trainer jets, namely T-2, F-1, T-4, and the ATD-X.
The F-2 also was going to be an indigenous jet, but the US wanting to engineer the Agile Falcon(an F-16 with improved turn performance to be able to dogfight with Flankers) for "free" forced the Agile Falcon concept on Japan against Japanese wills with threats of a trade war. Considering the Plaza Accord that doubled the value of Yen overnight and triggered the neverending depression that Japan is in for almost 24 years now, you can understand the Japanese fears of US trade retaliations and why they gave in.
> the Chinese had no experience but they did it.
China also had a long history of indigenous combat jets since the 60s, such as J-8(1969), JH-7(1988), J-10(Contrary to a popular misconception, the J-10 predates Lavi, and Israel provided only consulting work on an exsiting plane), and so on.
> the Israeli's didn't have experience but they designed an airplane, the list goes on.
Israel's first jets were copies of Mirages.
After the Lavi was cancelled, Israel lost the ability to design its own fast jets and is now focusing on developing avonics parts and drones instead.
> if there is a need and money to be made then industry will fill the need.
Fighter jet engineers don't come out of mountain bushes when called.
your economic history recollection is faulty. the Plaza accords simply sought to rebalance the US dollar against foreign currencies.
Deletequite honestly it would have been better if the US established tariffs on imported goods like the Europeans and Japanese do but instead we cooperated with foreign govt.
lastly. you don't know what the fuck you're talking about. don't glamorize the F/A-50. its a fucking trainer that can drop bombs. i'm not impressed. additionally doing stuff under the supervision of Americans is hardly doing it yourself.
but i'm in a let Japan and S. Korean do it themselves if their people want to be arrogant little bitches.
pulling ALL US TROOPS OUT OF JAPAN AND S. KOREA WOULD BE A GREAT START!
Solomon
Delete> the Plaza accords simply sought to rebalance the US dollar against foreign currencies.
And it was the triggering event of Japan's never ending depression. You understand why Japanese would give in to the US demands on the F-2 after the Plaza Accord, as the Japanese government was trying to prevent another actions by the US as worse as the Plaza Accord. Japanese will name the Plaza Accord as the starting point of Japan's long decline.
> lastly. you don't know what the fuck you're talking about. don't glamorize the F/A-50.
The point I am trying to make is that Koreans have engineered a 4th gen fighter jet without anyone really realizing, and this is why they are now able to move onto 5th gen. They are not starting from scratch.
> its a fucking trainer that can drop bombs.
It handles certain munitions that the F-16 couldn't.
> i'm not impressed. additionally doing stuff under the supervision of Americans
There was no Lockheed Martin engineers present in the Mk II airframe development, as their offset contractual obligation was fulfilled with the Mk I airframe. Actually you would see IAI and Rafael engineers around, but no LM people in sight.
The Mk II is to Mk I what the F-15E was to the F-15D was, looking similar but very different structurally.
> pulling ALL US TROOPS OUT OF JAPAN AND S. KOREA WOULD BE A GREAT START!
And that's exactly what China wants to see!
There is certain misunderstanding about the T-50 project.
DeleteThe chief architects of Mk.1 were 20 AIDC Ching Kuo engineers, who were called the Taiwan 20 by the locals. Lockheed's own engineering staff was also 20, acting as consultants and design validators, but not actually doing the engineering work. Accordingly, the T-50 is basically a single engine F-CK-1 Ching Kuo that the Taiwanese wanted but was denied because of the inavailability of the F404 to Taiwan.
The Mk.1 unit was found to be deficient for carrying combat payload, so a new strengthened airframe called Mk.2 was developed. The Mk.2 looks the same as Mk.1 and shares same aerodynamic properties, but the airframe was now strong enough to carry 5.4 tons of external payload vs 7 tons for the F-16 Block 50/52. Then lots of parts were replaced with local parts including avionics computer, and had the weapons reintegrated into this local computer.
There have been no recent "Aussie orders."
DeleteOh, and I plan to give up smoking and lose twenty pounds next year. Ain't I sweet?
DeleteDeath spiral or not. The Real Shame is most of the Worlds Fighter Aircraft Mfg.'s desperately trying to sell penny packets of aircraft. Its Depressing to see realistic aircraft orders rarely going over a hundred. At these low rates, is it even worthwhile economically to commit to building these weapons from Scratch. I mean seriously, how many of these Magical Korean/Japanese new gen fighters are going to generate in sales ? Never has sooo much money chased soo few aircraft.
ReplyDeleteAnd the smaller the size of these Fighter fleets, the more Govt's are gonna fall sucker to Stealth
DeleteSarabvir Singh
DeleteGripen E : 118 Units so far, 22 Swiss + 36 Brazil + 60 Sweden
KFX : 300 units requested by the ROKAF + 50 from Indonesia.
F-3 : Around 100 for Japan. This is why Japan is desperately seeking a partner to share the output.
You know, its an expensive, overblown and under-capable pile of shit....but damit, that's a cool picture! Japan purchasing this to replace F-15J's...? Where's the logic in that? Taking the benefits of the Eagle, and weighing against this single engine, non-air superiority "fighter"...good luck guys! We'll be around to bail you out... wait, no we won't. Mr. Hagel is a mean old man, and won't let us come out and play. Politics and politicians are killing multiple economies just to keep this thing on life support.
ReplyDeleteJulietCharlie22
DeleteJapan has no choice, because they cannot go down in strength while facing China and Korea. This is why Japan is developing a killer BVR missile called the AESA Meteor to compensate for the F-35's deficiencies.
Slowman... You said it right there. You're admitting to the F-35's "deficiencies." Its the wrong aircraft that's being force-fed to the country. I'm not sitting in the driver seat of JASDF, nor am I an expert on their policy. They do need to defend themselves....with the right hardware. You're replacing a perfect-capable DCA/OCA platform with a dog sled. And history has already proven the lesson of being dependent on missiles alone. A lesson paid for in blood.
DeleteJulietCharlie22
DeleteThe thing with this AESA Meteor is that 1. It is jamming resistant. 2. Ducted rocket provides thrust 100 km out, so it can deal with maneuvering target at terminal stage unlike AMRAAM and would eliminate the needs for a close-in dogfight.
So it does sound killer on paper, combining British propulsion and Japanese AESA seekers.
Sounds like an interesting missile. Wonder why i havnt heard much about it.
DeleteArent the russians also working on a similar kind of a AESA guided missile for the PAK-FA and even the existing Sukhois ?
Delete