Thursday, April 24, 2014

F-35 News. Death Spiral.



What is a death spiral?  This is how the program manager of the F-35 defines it, or rather did define it in an article with Reuters...
"death spiral" in which cuts in orders trigger rising prices that lead to further cuts in orders and ultimately undermine the program.
So, the question then becomes.  Have we seen cuts in orders for the F-35?

I say we have.
Everyone forgets that the Japanese buy of 42 aircraft is hardly a victory.  They had a requirement for 100.
The UK initially wanted 138, now its  projected that they might buy fewer than 50.
The Netherlands was interested in buying 85 of the airplanes but now will make due with 37.
Brazil, and India all slipped away and Singapore is being cagey in its views on when if ever it will buy the airplane.  And we haven't even talked about the Italians who decreased their buy to 90 airplanes and might go to half that if news reports are to be believed.
The program might continue but we can say that it is in a death spiral....now you ask "how can that be?"  Its simple.  We're looking at a development and production scheme that has never been done before.  If this was a traditional development program then it would have collapsed long ago.  But because they're able to push MISTAKE jets through (thank you ELP and APA for the term) they're keeping this walking dead creation alive.