I wake up to reports that Russian separatist have taken control of a number of cities and that the Ukrainian government is so far powerless to stop them.
This is the beginning of the end for Ukraine.
Ukraine will never be the same and more than likely we're about to see the country partitioned, if not conquered by Russia.
Make no mistake about it.
The Russians outsmarted the EU and US.
Also understand that the biggest loser here (besides the Ukrainian people) is the EU. Smaller European countries are not seeking closer ties with the EU...they're shouting for closer ties to the US. Meanwhile, the EU remains silent because they desperately need Russian gas supplies.
Meanwhile, the US Army silently sits in a corner and applauds quietly.
As far as budget wars are concerned the US Army should be golden. Contain N. Korea and Russia while keeping an eye on US interests in the Middle East and Northern Africa and they're set to make an argument for a bigger slice of the budget pie. Army modernization might get back on track.
The scoreboard has changed.
Winners?
Russia.
Losers?
US and EU.
Inadvertent winners?
US Army. Europe is back as an area of concern..."the best laid plans of mice and men" and all that bullshit ya know!
This is the beginning of the end for Ukraine.
Ukraine will never be the same and more than likely we're about to see the country partitioned, if not conquered by Russia.
Make no mistake about it.
The Russians outsmarted the EU and US.
Also understand that the biggest loser here (besides the Ukrainian people) is the EU. Smaller European countries are not seeking closer ties with the EU...they're shouting for closer ties to the US. Meanwhile, the EU remains silent because they desperately need Russian gas supplies.
Meanwhile, the US Army silently sits in a corner and applauds quietly.
As far as budget wars are concerned the US Army should be golden. Contain N. Korea and Russia while keeping an eye on US interests in the Middle East and Northern Africa and they're set to make an argument for a bigger slice of the budget pie. Army modernization might get back on track.
The scoreboard has changed.
Winners?
Russia.
Losers?
US and EU.
Inadvertent winners?
US Army. Europe is back as an area of concern..."the best laid plans of mice and men" and all that bullshit ya know!
There isn't room in the budget for more troops in Europe. You get a Stryker Brigade and an Airborne Brigade, with a bunch of Brads and Abrams stuck in prepositioned stocks.
ReplyDeleteCongress is NOT going to increase the Army budget because, 1, we just deactivated two Brigades in Europe, and 2, putting 2 Brigades back in Europe would to both Jack and Squat for NATO security. When the cost of basing a Soldier in Europe works out to over 100,000 per Soldier verses half that for CONUS, you can bet the Army will keep Brigades at Riley and Hood and focus on "rapid deployment" instead.
Army is looking at different prepositioning of heavy assets:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.defensenews.com/article/20140413/DEFREG02/304130008/Fast-Light-US-Army-Overhauls-Its-Gear-Strategy
"The idea is to break up the massive stocks of vehicles, weapons, and ammunition the Army has traditionally warehoused across the Middle East, Europe and aboard ships into smaller, theater-specific 'activity sets' that troops can simply fall in on."
Stick a BCT's worth of gear in Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia each, improve airfields and railroads in Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia so more BCT's can be flown in, and things ain't looking all that bad. US Brigades by themselves would be paltry, but acting in concert with brigades from host countries, there is enough mass to
If you rotate BCTs in for training exercises in Eastern Europe, every couple of months, then you don't have to worry about permanent basing and 100K per year per soldier costs. It would be good for the Army to get into the idea of rapid deployments AND the payoff in interoperability/familiarity with the host nation militaries would be good for their morale and capabilities.
Maybe resurrect the Reforger exercise concept on a smaller scale, but pick a different NATO member each year. One year, it could be the Baltics, the next Romania, then Norway, Turkey, etc.
The Germans, Brits and French are all down-sizing their Armies, so they could take some of the spare heavy gear, preposition in a similar way. UK could take Norway/Baltics, Germany for Poland and Romania, France for Turkey
Oh, and it's not the end.
ReplyDeletehttps://medium.com/war-is-boring/ef92d9bb31e4
No way Russia can take and hold Ukraine. It might smack down the Ukrainian military, but an insurgency would expose the Russian Army's feet of clay.