The above video is from Russian Times (so carefully evaluate what you're seeing) and it came with this description...
An amateur video shows Ukrainian personnel and armored vehicles moving closer to Donetsk. The region demands a nationwide referendum on the state structure. Locals try to stop machinery from progressing further. Ukraine's acting Interior Minister threatens to resolve the situation "in 48 hours". READ MORE:http://on.rt.com/b1ghdqI don't know who's idea it was to issue an ultimatum but this thing is heading toward critical mass and I haven't heard anything from anyone except the Russians and the Ukrainians...the EU and US are mute.
I can't even see where this is going but the next day or two should prove interesting.
Looks like a Ukrainian Air assault unit trying to stay off the main road and still running into local yokels. I see the pro-Russians have a decent network of observers to keep tabs on Ukrainian army movements.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how the Ukrainians plan to defend against an invasion AND homegrown pro-Russian militias. There isn't a place the Ukrainian army could dig in without their position being relayed to the Russians and targeted for fire missions.
Ukraine is lost. the only thing left to do is to make sure that any future Russian expansion can be effectively repelled. even the current Ukrainian leadership must realize this.
Deletewhat has me curious are the persistent rumors that the State Dept attempted a coup and it swung out of control.
SOMETHING!!!! happened at the Olympics that made the Russians go operational. i don't know what they got off the State Dept officials communications but it riled them up good. additionally the Obama administration has been behind the curve on these so called democracy movements worldwide (actually they're economic protest but why let facts get in the way of a good story). i can see Kerry and Obama looking for a big win in Europe to pull up flagging poll numbers.
They were probably planning it anyway and just waiting for the Olympics to finish so as not to spoil a little photo op for Putin.
DeleteSalomon you are right Maidan was a coup that way funded by EU and US NGO's and Ukrainian Oligarchs , it just spiraled out of control. And yes color revolutions are economic driven not democracy and definetly not enabled trough twitter and facebook(who gives a fuck for twiter or facebook when they have problems feeding their family) that is just a story for morons
DeleteUkraine is not lost. The Russians still have to prove themselves in battle. We have no knowledge on how well equiped, trained, and motivated allot of thise Russians over the border are. While we see lot's of Spetsnaz in Crimea, keep in mind a huge portion of their army are still poorly trained conscripts. The Ukrainians will likely be highly motivated to defend against a Russian advance and will be fighting on home turf. I also think the pro-russian sentiment in East Ukraine is being hugely overblown by Russian propoganda.
ReplyDeleteI do not believe russians acutaly want to take Ukraine ,its just sabre ratling so that Krimea stays of the table while everyone is concerned for Ukraine proper.
DeleteI do not know why you think russians dont have battle hardened units, they have been fighting in various conflicts for last 20 years. You can be 100% certain that tip of the spear would be nothing but experienced units , if it actualy comes to shooting war i wouldn't be suprized to find Chechens in the thick of it. Ukraine army is in dissaray and brass can not be trusted as russian inteligence services keep many of them on the payroll.
Let's consider this: Even if Russia's military is not the best, Ukraine's is much worse off.
ReplyDeleteImagine this:
The West is mostly quiet. Too quiet. What if they are hoping for a conflict, seeking to analyze Russia's current military prowess?
I don't believe the Russians want the whole of the Ukraine. The Crimea and regional autonomy for parts of Eastern Ukraine will probably do them. They get control of the port and products needed for their defence industry without pissing the EU/ USA off too much.
ReplyDeleteThe Ukraine government has probably seen this coming and does not want parts of eastern Ukraine becoming autonomous. If there is conflict, I hope we have the sense to stay out of it.
You can bet the FSB/GRU are in eastern Ukraine promoting and organizing events.
I read the Administration isn't sharing intelligence information regarding Russian movements with the Ukrainian's either.
ReplyDeleteExclusive: U.S. Won’t Share Invasion Intel With Ukraine
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/08/exclusive-u-s-won-t-share-invasion-intel-with-ukraine.html
Ukraine is not lost. Russia is playing a boo game.
ReplyDeleteRussian special forces and upper tier paratroop forces taking Crimea is a big difference than going into eastern Ukraine with tens of thousands of conscripts. During WW2 even the Nazi's at their height played hell taking Crimea from Russia their is limited roads in and they are funneled on both sides by swamp. Russia is separated from Crimea by water but they do and will control the air/sea unless NATO jumps in which is not happening at this point. The Russian supply lines to Crimea is secure and stable unlike Ukraine's. Also Crimea is pushing 80+% russian no were else in Ukraine is the Russian pop anywhere near that even in the east were it so called Russian leaning regions it is only 50-60%. Also allot of the Russian speakers in the east consider themselves Ukrainian and may vote to keep good relations and strong trade relations with Russia but have no wish to become Russian possessions again.
If Russia goes into eastern Ukraine they will be bloodied and drained even if they can take and hold the east. All we would need to do is funnel manpads/anti-tank weapons into the west and they would grind the Russians down. Ukraine is big it would take hundreds of thousands of Russian troops just for the east, a feat they are just not up. 40k or even 80k troops maybe be able to take the east but they will not be able to hold it. Not to mention Russia pissed off the whole region with their bully tactics so if they go into the east and have to play all there cards to win, what about Georgia and Azerbaijan (they both have axes to grind and would see themselves as the next in line would you just wait in line).
Russia is bluffing and hoping to be able to cow down the Ukrainian gov that is still not solidified by elections. The Ukrainian govs best move is to leave Crimea to a longterm negotiated settlement and let it be known a eastern intervention will mean full scale war. These hostile moves by the Russian agitators should be put down swiftly (deadlines are idiotic and no warning or time should be given). The Ukrainian elections need to be pushed forward and expedited, without Crimea the vote balance will be tilted well into the wests favor. Crimea was roughly 5-10% of the russian leaning parties 50% base yet a negligible percentage on the western leaning base. Basically every election post Soviet Union would have been won by the western forces without the Russian leaning Crimean voters, Putin gained a port but he lost Ukraine.
And yes the Ukrainian military is weak it has been starved and purposely weakened under the Russian leaning presidents tenure (sounds like the US under O). But Ukraine is not some 3rd world bucket they are a capable people I wouldn't underestimate them.
Ukraine will make a stand for the Honor of the armed forces, then fade away into the hills and swamps and the general population for a long protracted guerilla war. IEDs, snipers and and long range combat patrols that will hit the interior of Russia.
ReplyDeletePossible suicide attacks.
I would hope the Ukrainians will make a separate peace and lay down arms offering to become a part of Russia just to save lives and infrastructure fer shure Obama ain't gonna ride in and save them.
The Euros ain't got the balls to do more than bluster, bitch and whine to the Useless U.N.
Even support for breaking away from Ukraine isn't popular.
ReplyDelete"But they might simply be reacting to public opinion. A poll released Wednesday found that just 26.5 percent of Donetsk residents surveyed support the pro-Russian rallies and that only 4.7 percent want the region to break off from Ukraine, one of the main demands of the protesters. The survey was conducted March 26 to 29 by the Donetsk Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis.
A poll conducted by the Gallup organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute and released Saturday found that just 4 percent of respondents want the region to break away."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/politicians-in-ukraine-maneuver-for-a-deal-to-end-standoff/2014/04/09/5f878bfe-bfbc-11e3-bcec-b71ee10e9bc3_story.html