David Axe over at War is Boring Blog does the ELP bit but instead of the Navy crunches the numbers with regard to US Air Power. You can read it here, but again he buried the lead. Check this out....
The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps’ huge air wings help explain the imbalance. The U.S. Air Force possesses 1,959 fighters and all of America’s bombers. Alone, the American flying branch’s warplanes outnumber China’s and Russia’s—but only by a few hundred airframes.The numbers don't tell the story. I talk about the Pacific often. The reason? I believe that to be the area where you'll see peer opponents going at it. Whether its the China vs. the US, China vs. Japan, China vs. S. Korea etc...
But the U.S. Navy and Marines together maintain 1,402 fighters, while China’s navy fields fewer than 200 fighters—and the Russian navy fewer than 100.
In that calculation overall numbers mean squat. What means everything is the number of fighters that can respond to a rapidly developing incident.
Regional or even local air superiority is what counts.
The same applies to troops, tanks, ships, UAVs etc....
Don't be fooled by the numbers. Worldwide obligations/responsibilities make our air power lead dubious at best.
If ledgers fought wars, we'd win all the time.
ReplyDeleteAxe isn't using his brain. We have a finite amount of planes we can base near or within reach of Russia or China. Let's take China. We have some bases in Japan, Okinawa, ROK.
China could fire 1000 Short and Medium Range ballistic missiles, conventionally armed, and damage or make those bases inoperable. And then how many planes do we have? Zero, because we can't get them in the air. And how any could we reinforce them with? Zero, because we can't land there either.
What would the Chinese PLAAF be able to do in a 72 hour window with hardly any enemy planes in the air?
Not to mention, Russia and China are also supported by extremely capable SAM networks.
In terms of regional superiority, I think all of the ASEAN nations combined have China equally matched for the South China Sea. The only problem for China is really logistics. The ASEAN nations are closer to the Spratly Islands and won't have the same problems the Chinese will have if they attempt a land grab, especially if our allies in the ASEAN countries receive backing from us and that's almost a guarantee. For the near future I think the Spratly's are safe. The ASEAN nations seem to be arming themselves well enough with weapons from us and Russia. China is developing advanced fighters and producing J-10 Dragons like rabbits, but overall it doesn't seem that they will get a major advantage anytime soon. The only thing I could see them doing to give them a serious edge would be a well coordinated cyber attack before starting a conventional conflict. I think the NSA would probably have them beat at the cyber game though.
ReplyDeleteyou're making the same mistake that the Pentagon is.
Deleteis assuming that the democratic countries of the Pacific region would come to each others aid if China pushed a dispute with either one of them.
they won't.
S. Korea will not aid Japan if the Chinese attempt to take a disputed island. Japan might help the Philippines if the Chinese attacked but they would be one of two nations concerned (the other being the US).
the countries of the Pacific are filled with racial hatred that goes back centuries and if that isn't the case then you can point to economic concerns or even old fashioned pragmatism. they will stay out of other countries business unless it directly affects them.
trying to count these nations as one huge air and naval force that can be rallied against the Chinese is a huge mistake, but one i expect out of the "all is well" Pentagon and this generation of political general officers.
Hmm... well, you have a point. I don't come from the "all it well" camp that you're talking about, but I'm someone who is guessing and kinda hoping that if China does conduct a military action in the South China Sea it will scare most of the ASEAN nations into cooperating with each other. I am aware of the racism in the region though and its needless to say that none of Japan's actions during WWII to any of those countries have been forgotten.
DeleteI remember you covered it a while ago, but Japan tried to take on the leadership role of standing up to China in Southeast Asia. None of the other ASEAN countries in the region stood behind them and it was kinda embarrassing for them.
If you are right and the ASEAN countries don't cooperate then a conflict in that area would be a total cluster fuck and China would win. I'd say that we would have a significant amount of forces in the region to back the Philippines and possibly some other ASEAN nations, but a lot of that depends on who's in charge and I'm hoping it's someone a lot better than the administration we have right now.
I haven't forgotten the problems in that area, Sol. I guess right now I still have a mostly optimistic view of that area. Only time will tell how things pan out.