NOTE: Either we're missing something very important, we don't have good visibility on the situation or the Shiite/Iraqi military is even more incompetent than I ever imagined.
Via CNN.
The ISIS forces seize four town and a strategic border crossing into Syria.
2000 Iraqi security forces (along with an unknown number of anti-terrorists units) remain surrounded in the nations largest oil refinery.
Iraq is for all intents and purposes lost. The State Dept can spin it anyway they like but militarily the Iraqi military will NOT be able to reclaim the lost territory.
Something weird is going on here. Take the story of the men surrounded at the oil facility. They're being held at bay by a force less than half their size. This whole campaign hasn't been adding up. Additionally reports are starting to circulate that indicate that ISIS is now one of the most militarily powerful forces in the region...rivaling even standing armies due to the large number of brand new tanks, missiles and other weaponry they looted from captured cities.
We're not getting the truth about the situation in Iraq and I'm beginning to wonder what we're not being told.
Via CNN.
A strategic border crossing and three other towns in western Iraq fell Saturday to the control of ISIS militants, a senior Iraqi security official said.The Shiites parade in Baghdad.
In addition to their offensives in northern Iraq, the militants have strengthened their hand in the western province of Anbar, the country's largest geographically, and were controlling Qaim, Rawa, Ana and Husaybah, said the senior official, who's based in Anbar.
In all, the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, or ISIS, controlled more than 70% of Anbar province, two security officials in the province told CNN.
Most importantly, ISIS controlled the strategic town of Qaim on the border with Syria, where the enemy fighters enjoy a stronghold, Iraqi security officials said Saturday.
Together, the four towns are situated along a highway from Syria to Baghdad, heightening possibilities that the militants could now march from the west to lay siege to the Iraqi capital. One of the four towns, Husaybah, is just 100 kilometers (60 miles) outside Baghdad.
The ISIS forces seize four town and a strategic border crossing into Syria.
2000 Iraqi security forces (along with an unknown number of anti-terrorists units) remain surrounded in the nations largest oil refinery.
Iraq is for all intents and purposes lost. The State Dept can spin it anyway they like but militarily the Iraqi military will NOT be able to reclaim the lost territory.
Something weird is going on here. Take the story of the men surrounded at the oil facility. They're being held at bay by a force less than half their size. This whole campaign hasn't been adding up. Additionally reports are starting to circulate that indicate that ISIS is now one of the most militarily powerful forces in the region...rivaling even standing armies due to the large number of brand new tanks, missiles and other weaponry they looted from captured cities.
We're not getting the truth about the situation in Iraq and I'm beginning to wonder what we're not being told.
Does anyone know exactly how big ISIS is? Does anyone have their exact numbers?
ReplyDeletethats part of what i consider the bullshit of the news that we're getting.
Deletethink about it like this. a Battalion sized group of terrorists caused two divisions worth of troops to flee? supposedly 800 ISIS fighters sent 30,000 troops running.
without air or artillery support?
really?
seriously?
it reeks. if thats the case then we could have sent the Ranger Regiments to fight the 2nd gulf war and expected success. and there is no doubt about it, the Rangers are better than ISIS.
so to answer your question any number we get has got to be suspect.
I've been searching the internet for an exact number and haven't found anything. All I've found are battles that they winning against overwhelmingly large enemies. If I had to make a guess, it seems like they are some kind of grassroots movement from the areas there that have suffered at the hands of both the Saddam regime and the Assad regime. They know their enemies well and they know their equipment well and they are kicking ass. What's worse is that no one knows where or when they plan to stop their rampage. If they win they are secretly bigger than our media is letting on, then we could see a brand new Iraq and Syria that far from friendly to US interests. And if those new regimes are run radical extremists would could see the center of Middle East destabilize completely, wrecking a fragile economic system.
DeleteA temporary alliance with Iran doesn't look so bad now.
At the end of the day ISIS are Civilians. So putting a number on them will be very difficult. Even if you get your hands on some old computer having some rudeimentary excel sheet which will pass of as their roll call sheet, it will still be difficult to put an exact number on them.
DeleteI still don't belive that 800 dudes kicked 30k "soldiers" asses... that's simply impossible.
DeleteMaybe Predator from that Arnold Shwarzneggar movie joined their cause. That would explain all those POW killings.
DeletePOW killings like that were bad. But what it has proven is that if ISIS wont follow the same statutes regarding human life and POW's the US forces should also reply in kind. That should sort out the Legality of your Status Of Forces. Use POW killings to make a blanket ban on journalists......citing their safety and concerns. When the media Jamboorie is locked out, show the Terrorists what REAL TERRORISM is. No matter what dastardly things non state actors and insurgents do, the biggest Terrorist is a Government only. Democracy or not.
"Iraq is for all intents and purposes lost. The State Dept can spin it anyway they like but militarily the Iraqi military will NOT be able to reclaim the lost territory."
ReplyDeleteWrong! It's never too late for some hashtags.
(This was sarcasm if I need to clarify)
----
My guess on what the Obama Admin is hiding is that Iran has been setup (by us, no less) to be the regional power in the ME. Iran offers the only solution at this point with respect to security and oil production. It's all about "optics" with Obama and his covert arming, training, and funding of Islamic radicals has made Iran seem moderate.
A "deal" with Iran allows us to buy their oil, keeps Iraqi oil in production (about 30% of OPEC), and will be perceived to be a stabilizing force.
As for Israel... Well, remember when Obama made Netanyahu use the back door by the trash?
Horseshit. This is more of the same 'Bama is a closeted Mooooslim' conspiracy shite.
DeleteWhat is more likely: he's in a conspiracy with the Mullahs of Tehran so they don't develop nukes OR he's an incompetent idealist who couldn't organize a car wash on a rainy day.
I'm an adherant of Occam's razor: among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.
The Iraqi Army is an Arab army. When was the last time an Arab Army triumphed? They select officers based upon political reliability, not talent or intelligence, select NCO based on their obedience and lord over barely literate recruits
http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars
http://www.amazon.com/Arabs-War-Military-Effectiveness-1948-1991/dp/0803287836
Even with American training and equipment, it is culturally a backward, obedience-based system that is based on political loyalty, not competence.
So you subscribe to the belief that ISIL/ISIS is an organic force that sprang up from out of Syria, has defeated nearly the entire Iraqi army, and will continue to do so until Iran stops them simply because of Arab culture?
DeleteInteresting theory.
And now that we're learning Iraq's F-16 delivery was delayed until this week (even though they made payments three years ago) was just a coincidence? If ISIS had waited a month they would have faced air support. But, thanks to what you would consider "luck" they only have to content with two Cessnas that have now run out of Hellfires...
http://abcnews.go.com/International/iraqi-military-hellfires-battle-isis/story?id=24248493
Post links about Arab culture all you want. But you have to explain stuff like this...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-syria-crisis-rebels-usa-idUSBRE9290FI20130310
"Americans are training Syrian anti-government fighters in Jordan, the German weekly Der Spiegel said on Sunday, quoting what it said were participants and organizers."
Still sound like tinfoil?
Remember Egypt? Remember Libya? Remember what Obama WANTED to do in Syria but couldn't because of the "optics?" All over the ME Obama is replacing the establishment (love 'em or hate 'em) with radicalized Islamists.
Blame-shift all you want to these societies but it is intellectually dishonest to deny the Obama Administration has been involved.
Someone's either not paying attention or has an agenda.
Nowhere did I ever say that ISIS organically sprouted from the soil and began marching on Baghdad.
DeleteHave we trained and supplied Sunnis for operating in Syria? Yes.
Just like we trained them to operate in Afghanistan against the Soviets. And the results are predictable in that they are unpredictable. This has been US policy for 30 years: train Islamic fundamentalists to attack our enemies under the mistake premise that 'the enemy of our enemy is our friend' bullshit.
We need to get out of the business of arming/training extremists so they do our dirty work for us. They are the proverbial Djinni out of the bottle. Once they are out we have no control over them.
The Admin made the same stupid mistake we made in 80s when we armed the Mujahadeen and that spawned groups like Al Qaeda. Their intention might have been to sideline the extremists once the fighting was done, but the extremists like ISIS had different ideas and the Admin's intentions have spiraled out of control. BLOWBACK
He who sows the wind, shall reap the Whirlwind
About Iran, India will gladly support any US efforts to mend fences with Iran and Iranian efforts to mend fences with USA. Its a bilateral process.
DeleteOff Course, Saudi Arabia will blow up a fuse or two.
But staying on the course of Iran, give this a hard carefully considered thought-
1.) Iran has historically been more powerfull entity that Saudis who only got their shot to fame when the Ottomans, Alawites and Hashemites were disposed off by colonial powers after WW1.
2.) Regardless of Iran being governed by earstwhile Zoarastrians or after Islam took over, they have been the more powerfull of the two.
3.) In present day scenario, Iran has i think 3-4 times more population.
4.) Iran has not only Oil but Iron, Coal, Farmland and other resources making it a complete economy rather than an Oil Economy.
5.) Since the time of Leonidas and Caesar, Iran has always been that vital link connecting Rome, Carthage, Phoenicia, Jerusalem, Greece, Numidia in the west to India, China and other Far East Countries by providing a network of roads and ports which were regualted by 1 authority and needed paymet in 1 currency protected by 1 set of laws.
6.) Today, Iran is a mix of theology and democracy. Its people still have a lot of influence over how their country is run than Saudi.
7.) If you Americans play your cards right, Iran is your next Turkey. And I mean that in a good way. A decent military, capable citizenry, net provider of security, a stable half democracy with hundreds of billions of dollars of potential trade. US influence will only Increase in Asia if you add Iran to a list consisting of South Korea, Japan, Phillipines, SIngapore, Australia, India, Malaysia, Thailand etc.
8.) On second thought, scratch India from that list. We are non aligned with a stiff upper lip. Ahem.
I'm with resident author, this is too swift not to be in some kind of collusion between the Obama administration and ISIS it's as if somebodies plan is going down too well.
ReplyDeleteReversing the Bush win is most important for these clowns even if it makes allies foes and foes allies.
It's really all about George Bush winning that election back when he ran against themanbear gore.
then he went to war in Iraq and won, despite all their efforts to make it a Vietnam, now with the right or left guy in charge Iraq becomes "TADA!" I told you so, Vietnam.
Iran wins, Iraq wins, Al queda wins and become the Middle east regional power against the Hegemon of the United States. It's almost like a Hollywood script!
All the US will do is rush about and save the arts, memorials, and monuments.
Yes, the US has a history of siding with jihadists since (at least) the Carter administration when the radicals were supplied with arms in Pakistan to draw the Russians in to Afghanistan and then to fight them there. It's been similar in Syria and Libya, and of course Iraq like Syria is an ally of Iran so there you go.
DeleteThe myth is promoted that Iraq is a US ally because, hey, the US won the war.
Anyhow the major US goal is to have no major US/Israel adversaries in the Middle East, with Iraq broken up as Biden suggested years ago.(Syria too)
AP, May 12, 2006: WASHINGTON — The senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee proposed Monday that Iraq be divided into three separate regions — Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni — with a central government in Baghdad.
Therefore the US has promoted the inter-sect rivalry in Iraq and now we have Sunni Awakening 2.0 --But it ain't over yet.
Yes, these clowns are that stupid.
ReplyDeleteKEY Words: Anbar province; Western Iraq.
ReplyDeleteISIS is operating in their own territory where they have a supportive population that despises the Maliki gov't. Old Baathists, ex-Iraqi army, former militia's that were on the US payroll but given the axe by Maliki gov't, Sunni fundamentalists.
Behind every corner is an informant for ISIS.
And what do we know about the Iraqi Army? What have they tried? Guarding checkpoints? Refineries? Are they combined arms actions or just columns rolling into a town center and getting RPGed?
We aren't hearing anything about the Peshmerga being routed? No ISIS advances into Kurdistan, right?
ISIS knows where its bread is buttered: the Sunni Triangle. They are going to solidify their gains, gather more recruits, inventory their new ex-IA weapons (never fired, only dropped once) and wait for the drones to appear above.
They aren't fucking Jedi knights or ninjas....these are the same assholes in technicals we see everywhere else in every shithole. They might have good organization and operational tempo, but that's all it is.
What this reminds me of is Libya tried to invade northern Chad with mechanized units: hundreds of tanks and APCs, thousands of troops and arty support, dozens of MiGs and Sukhois dropping ordnance.....all rather impressive until a bunch of guys in Toyota pick-ups, armed with HMGs, AA autocannon and Milan ATGMs sent them packing with heavy losses.
From what i have seen even Peshmerga are not much of a force and really couldn't hold their own against ISIS ,for now ISIS doesn't have a plan to go after kurds in the north.
DeleteThey do not need a large army as long as the have local support .
ReplyDeleteAs for iraqi army you have to know its a jobs program ,people enlist so that they have a job ,not beacause they are willing or ready to fight and its even worse for command structure thes e are the guys that are on posts due to tribal or familiar conections and are totali un reliable.
Only way you get Iraqi army combat ready on the sort notice is to fall back on a soviet system ,tha has been proven time and time again with conscript armies and peasant guearilas.
First order of the day would be to have the command structure that fled(army was still in Mosul when commanders were long gone) Mosul shot
yet even an ill led force would maintain some kind of orderly withdrawal out of common tactical knowledge.
DeleteThese guys boogied like the end of the world was after them.
Something truly horrible spooked them or the threat of something.
The US only went through the motions "assisting" Iraq. Are they really that incompetent? I don't think so; they have another agenda as I commented above.
ReplyDeleteWSJ, Jun 21
WASHINGTON—Amid growing signs of instability in Iraq, President Barack Obama authorized a secret plan late last year to aid Iraqi troops in their fight against Sunni extremists by sharing intelligence on the militants' desert encampments, but devoted only a handful of U.S. specialists to the task.
So few aircraft were dedicated to the program, which also faced restrictions by the Iraqis, that U.S. surveillance flights usually took place just once a month, said current and former U.S. officials briefed on the program. ..... etc.
Once a month only ?......but Insurgents and Non State actors rarely remain stationary for that long. The is no way you can track and monitor them at soo large an interval. It really looks like they were being propped up for faiulre at a time and place of the conspirators choosing.
DeleteThey are making a big deal about securing legal immunity for the small military contingent of "advisors" that the US intends to send to Iraq.
ReplyDeletenews report:
“We are pursuing something in writing,” Rear Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said Friday. “The secretary is absolutely committed to making sure that our troops have the legal protections. He would not do that on a nod and a wink.”
For the past twelve years, since late 2001, military relations between the United States and Afghanistan have been governed by a two-page "diplomatic note" giving U.S. forces virtual carte blanche to conduct operations as they see fit.
This should be done by the US State Department, but here was State on Friday, wanting no part of it:
QUESTION: Okay. And then this question came up over at the Pentagon a little while ago, and the answer was not really – I mean, I’m not sure they had a specific answer to it. And that is: What is the agreement under which these advisors are going into Iraq under in terms of immunity? Are they like the security guys who went in – or I assume the security guys who went in to help with the Embassy are under chief of mission authority. What is the – is there a temporary SOFA or something like that that’s in place for these 300?
MS. PSAKI: It does not require a SOFA. I’m not sure what my colleagues over at the Pentagon said, and of course, they’re their personnel --
QUESTION: Right.
MS. PSAKI: -- so they would be the appropriate entity to answer.
So both the Pentagon and State are dragging their feet on this.
If it's really a 300 man force it's most likely only a 50 to 100 man fighting force with the rest in support. otherwise it's a 2000 man force fielding 300 fighters.
DeleteSomething is fishy here.
A military force when given the freedom to prosecute their goal with no legality/convention holding them back always punches way way above their own weight in the shortest amount of time.
DeleteThe SS comes to mind, and yes without restraint a military unit can have almost superhuman power.
DeleteWestern Units with restraint must rely on it's support weapons multipliers.
Here is an interesting question.
ReplyDeleteWhat would make a well equipped with all it's assets field force of 30,000 men flee dropping weapons, uniforms and caution headlong into a rout?
It wasn't the threat of POW's being murdered that happened after the rout.
I can only think of two things.
1. Chemical weapons and the means and will to use them in mass.
2. Atomic weapons and the means and the will to use them in mass.
Perhaps a third, Bio weapons, In the CDC Atlanta a Capt Tripps event has infected over 80 CDC workers with anthrax.
Something spooked the hell out of a Division of troops commanded by a two star general or the Iraqi equivalent into taking off the uniforms and running like the devil was on the loose.
I'm thinking perhaps there is a lot more to this than anyone is even guessing!
Somebody out there has one hell of a Kill-o-zap weapon and a bunch of somebodies believe it.
WTF over? is actually going on in Iraq?
The soldiers claim that their officers fled the units. But how much of an army was (is) it?
DeleteTwo views from 2007: first, the US view--
GEN. SATTLER: And just one quick point to add on: The Iraqis -- three years ago, if you were looking inside the country of Iraq, to fight one of the major battles, we had to go countrywide to find seven Iraq battalions that were qualified and capable that could fight alongside coalition forces. And as General Ham just indicated, today, there's 108 Iraqi army battalions [25 brigades! 8 divisions!!] that are either in the lead or on independent operations.
Sep 2007-Al Anbar, the Iraqi view
“In four years, the MOD [Ministry of Defense] has given my soldiers one uniform each. Last month, I got 300 [pairs] boots for 600 soldiers. I’m supposed to give each soldier one boot? I drive eight hours to Baghdad to get my soldiers’ pay. Last week, I drove to Basra for gas,” he said. “We need water and food. Who gives it us? Colonel Mundy. My soldier gets killed here, it is ignored. Not like you Americans. The government doesn’t even know the 2d Brigade is out here in the desert.”
I'll bet you dollars to donuts the vast majority of those officers were selected based on their loyalty to the regime, not competence or sense of duty to their troops or country.
DeleteIt is a Shia regime that selects Shia officers and soldiers based on their suitability on not being a threat to the regime. The troops are treated like mushrooms: kept in the dark and fed a lot of shit.
ISIS has cohesion, organization, decentralized C&C and operational tempo. Because they are operationally decentralized, they operate inside the Iraqi Army's centralized, incompetent C&C OODA loop.
Find the weak points, coordinate locally, attack before IA can get permission to redeploy or be reinforced
Same old same old, Happened in April 1975 Vietnam, Generals bugged out, then the Col, and Maj after a while a bunch of ARVN Butterbar's looked at each other and said phuc dis!
DeleteThe men sensing defeat discarded uniforms and weapons or in the case of ARVN Marines hijacked a civilian escape ship and bugged out.
Still, even a callow ill led force should have made some kind of fight, how much ground can what is a western Army understrength Bn cover?
Or perhaps as did the ARVN, they spent their time looking over their shoulders for American airpower that just wasn't coming.
Those guys in the Philippines when the Japs hit did the same but held out much longer waiting for support that did not come.
The Brother saw the same Don, with Rifle manuals, they handed out rifle manuals to each soldier only to watch each manual picked up by the Maj when asked why, the Maj said, I know how to take care of rifles, if they know I lose my power over them.
Power and control, mushrooms kept in the dark and that is why the AK-47 is so popular amongst them.
It's soldier proof and if you can piss holes in the sand you can shoot one effectively.
That lucky dude in the APC looks happier than a pig in shit driving that Patria!
ReplyDeleteWhat Patria that is surely an LM product LOL
ReplyDeleteMr. T now I don't want you bashing my brains out when I point out to you the name on the front of the buggy that says Patria.
DeleteDoes Patria make an LM product?
No i am just pointing at the obvious ,US 'system integrators' putting their sticker and billing the invoices on foreign developed systems. (patria AMV XP is in US labeled LM Havoc)
Delete''A proven platform with Lockheed Martin’s weapon, network and sensor integration experience, the Havoc 8x8 is ready to fulfill modern multirole expeditionary needs worldwide.''
Its interesting that US gear can be sold directy to NATO alies while no foreign contractor can compete on US procurment whithout having to go trough ither a US 'system integarator' like LM or setting up shop in US and getting a a bazilion of lobiyists on payrol., end result you get a more expensive products and projects that are to expensive to procure so just swallow a R&D budget a then fail.
Good to know and good to go!
DeleteOn a lighter note..... The world has learned one lesson from all this Iraq Fiasco, Keep the Amercians away from Oil Producing Nations. Oil and US Liberation apparaltly do not Mix well. Heheh.
ReplyDeleteAnd on a deathly/deadly serious note. The answer to the ISIS problem does not lie in Baghdad, Mosul, Tehran, Damascus or even Obama's Washington. It lies in Saudi Arabia. Think about that again.
ReplyDeleteA country with unlimited money. A low population base to spend that money on. After a point of time buying that Ferrari/Lambourghini isnt enough of an ego boost. Now having your own private militias preaching Hardcore Wahabi influenced Sunni Islam is the way to stamp your authority in Riyadh. Having your own private militia with the latest Tony Stark....oops Lockheed/Northrup weapons and their russian equivalents is the IN Thing now.
Lets not forget, Osama Bin Laden was from a wealthy Saudi Family. Most Sunni Moaques all over the world recieve some sort of funding or foreign exchange programs from the Saudis. In India, our intelligence agancies are regularly busting Hawala (Illegal Money Smuggling) operations rooted to the middle east with their origins almost always being Saudi Arabia.
The Irony of it all, its us Idiots all over the world who buy Saudi Oil thus funding our own Doom. We tried succesfuly to buy Iranian oil. But their Nuclear Sanctions scuttled that effort.
Singh: There it is, The Saudi's are the least heard about player in the middle east and the most prolific of the power projectors.
DeleteWhats more, they just jacked their Defence Expenditure by 20% to over 80 billion dollars now. Thats US dollars, not Canadian.
DeleteHow much of that money is going to their Actual Army and how much is going to their French Foreign Legion type militias outside is the question.
DeleteHow many more Chechens, Pakis, European Muslims etc. will find employment now ?
Who will they owe loyalty too ?.......the Saudi Crown, Allah the mighty or the Private Shiekh backign them ?
What all will be promised to these new militias apart from 72 virgins....and I mean in the form of territory or divided powers ?
Will this chaos now extend to Pakistan? A destabalized Pakistan with Nukes. A General sympathetic to Saudi then transferring his Nukes over to Saudi Arabia rather than let them fall over to Paki Taliban. I bet thats what Saudi Arabia was aiming for.