Note: Saudi Arabia falling will be the event that changes everything. When Saudi Arabia falls so will the current global trade system. And its coming. Say what you will about the anger of the average man against the elite, but its real and its growing. Prep now. We're looking at a very cloudy future.
The countries already teetering...Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. The countries facing near term drama...Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, UAE, Qatar, parts of Turkey (near the Iraq border), parts of India (near the Pakistani border) and Israel.
They're fucked. And I don't care.
The countries already teetering...Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. The countries facing near term drama...Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, UAE, Qatar, parts of Turkey (near the Iraq border), parts of India (near the Pakistani border) and Israel.
They're fucked. And I don't care.
If any nation deserves what it's going to get it is the Saudi's.
ReplyDeleteTo see Saudi's killed like Syrian's and Iraqi's would be sweet.
Excellent video, thank you. We get so little news about the troubles in Saudi Arabia, but here we see (thanks to a brave young woman) that the human spirit still lives in one of the world's most repressive regimes, a strong ally of the US. SecState Kerry is there now. Obama was there recently and said he didn't have time to talk human rights. There is strong US/Saudi cooperation against Syria, and now Iraq.
ReplyDeleteAl Qatif, the epicenter of these events, featured in the video, is only sixty miles from the large and expanding US naval base (and forward CENTCOM HQ) in Bahrain. The US has about 40,000 military personnel and dependents at various bases on the western side of the Gulf. That's really stupid. What purpose do they serve, in such a dangerous area? Might as well make them fly F-35's.
Saudi Arabia of course blames Iran for the current troubles, and from recent reports the House of Saudi is more concerned with Iran than it is with their ISIS terrorists possibly turning on them. But we see in the video that it is brave Saudis acting on their own grievances that forms the activity.
It just happens that Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, where the oil is, is also where the poverty is. Incidentally, it is also highly Shia Muslim whereas the al Sauds are Sunni Muslim.
If SA has a major crisis the world economy as we know it would unravel. Both China and Europe would be severely impacted by a potential severe drop in oil supply. Gasoline in North America could easily double in price.
ReplyDeleteWhile we may not care what happens in these "backwater" places because we don't see them as civilized, we also have to realize that we have to accept a world without Middle East Oil and it's consequences, which might mean $7 or $8 a gallon for gas.
North America could handle it. between fracking in the US and oil shale in Canada mixed with a sensible export policy it would realign the world to where we are the ultimate Mega Power.
Deletequite honestly if i was a jaded man i would be cheering for this to happen. couple it with the damage that would happen to China, i don't see how it would be a bad thing.
Europe would be screwed but Australia, Israel (they have natural gas deposits) and most of our other allies would be ok.
US oil imports
DeleteMar 2014 - million barrels
All countries 286
Canada 99
Saudi Arabia 45
Mexico 27
Venezuela 24
Russia 13
Colombia 12
Kuwait 11
about ten others less than ten million
US domestic production -- 8
that's 8 per day for the US -- the rest monthly -- sorry
DeleteExcept that fraking is a fraud that can't provide the levels of natGas promised. While at the same time it causes severe environmental problems, like poisoned aquifers, that outstrip any benefit.
Deletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-big-fracking-bubble-the-scam-behind-the-gas-boom-20120301
It's just another financial bubble, inflated by easy money coming from the bailed-out banking sector. The guys making money at it are just flipping real estate and selling off future rights that won't pan out for those that buy them.
Don, i don't get those figures you just tossed up there.
DeleteSandwyrm, well fracking is just one side of the coin...the other side is all the offshore oil that is being blocked by environmentalists. let Saudi Arabia fall and people are going to get practical real quick....they won't have the luxury of worshiping the planet. oh and don't get me wrong. i respect nature. i want it protected but i actually get out into the woods instead of carping about something i've never seen.
we are now exporting oil by order of the Obama administration. the worm has turned. when Saudi falls we're going to be golden.
Could probably work with Brazil and our oil reserves too... I am with Sol on this one. There are ways around this.
DeleteFraking is at the heart of the matter. Which is that we're surrounded by frauds of every stripe. 80+% of the fraking wells dry up in less than two years. Meaning that the whole thing is a giant scam. The guys flush with money through their banking shenanigans dig wells and sell them off to suckers who will never recoup the actual cost of digging the well in the first place. In the process, much damage is done to the environment (including earthquakes), and the people suckered into allowing this to happen on their land are destroyed.
DeleteOff-shore is a pipe-dream too. The easy wells on the near-shore shelves (100-150 feet below sea level) are all drilled. All that's left for expansion is the deep-water areas like where the Deepwater Horizon disaster happened. Problem is, as we all saw, that you can't fix a malfunctioning well when it's uncontrollably spewing god-knows-what 5000 feet below the surface.
Only real way to get around the oil imports is to reduce our needs for the stuff.
NO FRAKING IS NOT THE ISSUE! i don't care if you're a tree hugger, worship the earth or are just a new age hippy.
Deletethe point is the current economic system (which is worldwide) is about to collapse on itself. when that happens the point is that the US has the natural resources to weather the storm. so does canada so does australia and brazil and others. japan and europe will be screwed (along with s. korea) but oh well.
additionally it will make us explore options that we've taken off the table like nuclear power plants.
the point is clear.
the house of cards is gonna fall and we can handle it.
The price of oil is a global commodity price. So if there is less oil in the world economy the price goes up everywhere. I hear people say we will pump our own oil and the price will drop. Thats assuning Exxon (or whomever) will sell oil to the US cheaper than the rest of the world. Last I heared they are in it for the money not patriotism. If SA stops pumping oil we are all screwed unless everyone can make up the worldwide shortfall.
DeleteUNDER THE CURRENT SYSTEM!!!! those are the key words. under the current system oil is a global commodity. even if you support globalism, you have to admit that the construct is teetering.
Deleteif Saudi Arabia collapses then so will the system.
i stand by my assessment.
I'm not a tree-hugger, I'm a realist. It would be wonderful if the US did have the petroleum/gas reserves to say F-U to the rest of the world. But much of what you're drawing confidence from are outright scams and, at best, exaggerations. They share a lot in common with the tech and housing bubbles that have already shattered much of the economy. Don't believe in them without a LOT of salt.
DeleteThe concept of a global commodity doesn't depend on 'Globalism' to exist Sol. Even if you replace that insanity with a fair-trade policy that seeks our own advantage in a competitive market, oil will still have about the same price for all importers. As will corn, beef, and anything else that's in limited supply.
Deletethat is false. if the US were to keep its own supply of valuable goods inside its own borders and released excess to export then you would see drastically different prices. globalization has made all markets the same...and that is to our detriment since we have HAD the largest market. tariffs on steel, cars, and other goods would make those made in the US cheaper, in turn making our economy stronger. what would happen to other countries? they would fight to get into our markets while our corporations could exist without theres.
Deleteits how it was done for the majority of the years we've been in existence.
the people that say that the current system is the way that it has to be are automatically tuned out by me. they're part of a system that is falling apart yet seeking to sustain itself.
What you’re asking for is a modern version of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Which raised tariffs on over 20,000 products to record levels.
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
That act is generally credited with deepening the Great Depression. Driving the unemployment rate from 7.8% in 1930, to 24.9% in 1932.
A similar jump today would take us from a real unemployment rate of around 23%, to something more like 69%. Are you sure that’s what you want? Because you’re pretty much asking for us to devolve into an outright dictatorship and/or civil war in that case. We wouldn’t survive as a country long enough to ‘repair’ our economy and get back to the ‘good old days’.
A much better first step would be to end illegal immigration and deport aliens to raise wages. Then we could concentrate on getting rid of the incentives that make American companies leave our soil. So that they’re encouraged to come back and rebuild.
Then we can introduce some tariffs on key strategic industries, like rare earth magnets, to rebuild domestic production. So that China can't strangle our defense production during a conflict.
We do it slowly and methodically, and we do it at a rate that American industry can adapt to. Our economy wasn't destroyed in a day, and it can't be rebuilt by throwing around sticks of dynamite.
They will be fucked! They must be fucked! And NOBODY WILL CARE!
ReplyDeleteThe worst thing about Saudi Arabia is that they do not have a Uniform Code of Justice. Even when they rule based on Sharia Law, they have mangled it soo much that no 2 similar judegements have the same punishements. There is no law saying that this is the minimum and maximum punishments for a particular crime. The punishments vary from court to court and even in the same court from Judge to Judge depending on his whims and fancies. SO someone maybe ordered to life life imprisonment for Crime A, another might get his hand chopped off or chemically crastrated for the same crime A.
ReplyDeleteHammurabi of Babylon may have given the world its first Code Of Laws but these illetrate camel jockeys didnt get the memo.