Thanks to 1Modeus for the vid...
I'm always amazed at the short attention span of the average person when it comes to real news...not the celebrity bull but solid, important news. Remember the missing airliner? Its still missing. Remember the fighting in Ukraine? Its still going on. I'm going to have to look up the definition of a civil war, but whatever it is Ukraine looks like it. More ominously though...Ukraine is looking more and more like Yugoslavia everyday.
I'm always amazed at the short attention span of the average person when it comes to real news...not the celebrity bull but solid, important news. Remember the missing airliner? Its still missing. Remember the fighting in Ukraine? Its still going on. I'm going to have to look up the definition of a civil war, but whatever it is Ukraine looks like it. More ominously though...Ukraine is looking more and more like Yugoslavia everyday.
Scale is too small for Civil War, Russia and those "separatists" try to create some mass opposition against central Ukrainian gov. but without success. They "control" only two cities and some small area. In most cases they are bunch of bandits and criminals, even the Chechen "volunteers" probably under direct command from Kremlin were forced to arrest some of insurgents because the large number of stealing, looting and bandits activities. There is no nation wide fighting, only in those small areas where Russians can send own "volunteers" and weapons.
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainians are fighting Russians, this is not a Civil War. This is new type of war, in the shadows, without own colors. As someone said, Russia is just exporting a terrorism in to Ukraine in the name of CCCP 2.0 and dreams of new Soviet Empire by Vladimir Putin.
Totally spot on
DeleteSolomon is correct and Shas is wrong. This is civil war.
ReplyDeleteUkraine was a patch-job of two basically different groups. Generalizing a bit, in the west are the Ukraine agricultural types and in the east are pro-Russian industrial types as shown here. In the far east and souhest (esp. Crimea) are many Russian speakers as shown here.
The big picture is that NATO is expending eastward to Russia's borders, in contrast to what Russia had been promised. But the biggest problems are within Ukraine.
In February the whole applecart was tipped with a US-sponsored couo in Kyev, which had the assistance of pro-nazi-type groups who are anti-Jew and anti-Russian. A law was passed banning the Russian language which was too much for the easterners, plus Russia didn't want to lose its naval base in Crimea, the Kyev junta killed masses of people in the east and southeast, and now civil war rages.
Or you can believe US propaganda which criminalizes Russia. It really doesn't matter, because Russia is essential to Ukraine's survival. The West can not afford to support a splintered Ukraine. Russia has Crimea, that's all it wants. There is no evidence otherwise.
And do you see any type of armed insurgency in Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozihia or Kherson oblasts? They have from medium to large level of ethnic Russians there but they are calm. Only very limited insurgency but pretty criminal and foreign elements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, very limited because only contain in single cities with Ukrainian army controlled everything outside.
DeleteWhere are those west ver. east fights, heh?
About that banning Russian language law, it is a major bullshit and I was thinking it was obvious. That regulation was proposed but it was shoot dawn because Ukrainian constitutions tribunal state that it would violate Ukrainian constitution. But Russian propaganda blow it liek it was already law in power...
And I start to think Don that you are pretty strong pro-Russian, you just repeat Russian propaganda that in most cases are totally bullshit.
because the combat is happening in a confined space instead of geographically dispersed only means that the intensity of the combat will be more fierce. remember the US war of independence? that was a civil war that occurred theoretically over a vast geographic area. but the reality is a bit different.
Deletewhat you really had was soldiers on bothsides traveling to various battlefields, engaging in combat and then moving on.
the civil war, as you said, had seen some 100+ *chechens* attack a Donetsk airport, that got their asses handed to them. 45 confirmed dead *chechens* along with a number of Moscow residents were shipped in zinc coffins in refridgerator trucks back to their respective motherlands. How does that mean civil war? Sounds like terrorismus vulgaris to me.
DeleteWhat Chechens ? (Good riddance if that was the case which it isn't.) I take anything Kiev says with a grain of salt. They've been spouting nothing but BS. Also Shas you're a fucking imbeciel and shouldn't be talking about propoganda. You've been practically posting same comments over and over like a broken record. Comments that are drivel at that.. Solomon is fucking 100% right. It is a civil war. Kiev so far has been able to intimidated other regions to one degree or other. But they are stretched thin and soldiers are switching side or simply want nothing to do with this. And Ukrainians are finally waking up and seeing what they feared is happing. and that is the current "goverment" is basicly "Orange 2.0 boogaloo Were going to try our best to go fully retarded and see if we can piss off all sides edition".
DeleteRobert first did I insult you in any verbal ways that you respond with "fucing imbeciel(?)" towards me? If that is the only way you can speak maybe you should refrain when grown ups are discussing.
DeleteSecond, what Chechen? those Chechens volunteers that were confirmed by Ramzan Kadyrow, president of Chechen Republic who are fighting in eastern Ukraine on separatists side.
You have insulted me and every other reader with your BS multiple times already.
DeleteDo please give me a link were Kadyrov confirms there are Chechen volunteers in Ukraine. Oh wait there ain't one. You pulled it out of your ass.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-kadyrov-denies-sending-chechens/25405386.html
Delete"Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has again denied sending Chechen fighters to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine but said some could have gone "voluntarily."
In an interview to be aired on Russian television on May 31, Kadyrov said he had recognized some of the fighters in pictures from Ukraine."
Thank you mister Juozapaitis.
DeleteNow you happy Robert, or this news "out of my ass" is not satisfying you?
And I don't see any other people here that, no mater what they opinion are to act like you towards me. Probably because they are grown ups and can respect point of view of other persons without insulting them. You in opposite are unable to act like that.
((% of the people here are talking BULLSHIT . I am an EDUCATED (not vodka swilling track suited Russian or Ukrainian) foreigner married to a local woman who has been LIVING here in Donbas through all of this. I SEE what I see ... so anyone who is looking at this blog ... zapomnete ... most of the contributors are BULLSHITTERS who have NOTHING to lose. I am losing EVERYTHING in this conflict !!!!!!!!
Deleteso where are we going wrong?
DeleteThe city of Lugansk in the easternmost part of Ukraine has been attacked by Ukrainian Sukhoi-25, a close air support aircraft as seen here.
ReplyDeleteThat was a Frogfoot and those were signatures of unguided rockets what was hit is in doubt from where we sit.
DeleteThose S-24 rockets are 244 mm/9 inch with 200 lb warhead blast and frag and the S-13's are about 122 mm carry between a 21 and 36 kg warhead of various payloads frag, penetrators HEAT and FAE and are fired in clusters of five. I saw no craters which may mean FAE or frag with proximity fused.
Yet some news Orgs are saying it was RPG's from rooftops.
Those are two separate vids in one, first show an Su-25 flying over city. Second one is from explosion inside of administration building, very probably that it was and accident when some "insurgents" try to mess with explosive materials. As you can see the destruction of building is from inside explosion and from not that heavy explosive.
ReplyDeleteIf Ukrainian Su-25 would attack this it would be pretty amazing job to put an missile in to that window and what is better do so little damage. Ukrainian air force don't posses laser guided missiles and even if they had some ex-soviet ones they would blow up half of building.
Conflicting reports and stories, RPG attack from the rooftops, armed attack on guard checkpoint, SU-25 attack on HQ.
ReplyDeleteI saw the lady still alive yet blown apart dying in the street amongst others all civilian's, I saw the explosions of the CCTV in a row one after the other across a busy street, I saw a video purporting to be the attacking SU-25 Frogfoot firing a cluster of unguided Surface to ground rockets, looked like S-13 or S-24 usually fired in fives, tying it all together is beyond me.
The SU-25 as you know Shas can carry and deliver laser guided missiles and bombs which can go through a window. Then again a work accident may have blown those civilian's out of the window and into the street.
One shot showed the remainder of the weapon fired it was not from my point of view identifiable.
One thing for sure, that pretty lady blown into bloody spaghetti for sure knew she was in a war, civil or uncivil.
It's for real now that video is bound to inflame the situation, I see where reports are the airport is under air attack at this time.
Russian Paratroopers taking an airfield by storm is next?
Kyev is trying to entice Russia to intervene but Moscow hasn't taken the bait yet, and probably won't.
DeleteVlad ain't dumb, I wouldn't step into that free fire zone for anything.
Deletefrom wikileaks, Feb 1, 2008:
ReplyDeleteForeign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat. While Russia might believe statements from the West that NATO was not directed against Russia, when one looked at recent military activities in NATO countries (establishment of U.S. forward operating locations, etc. they had to be evaluated not by stated intentions but by potential. . .
NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic" issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. . .
At this point in time with the current crop of politician's in the US I don't believe a NATO expansion is in play, not from the US anyway. The Euro's though are liable to do anything and once turned a small assassination into a global war that lasted through two chapters and killed over 100 million people.
DeleteDon Bacon, I got just one thing to tell you: stop watching Russia Today. The sheer amount of propaganda they deliver is astonishing. Most of the 'facts' - like the casings of the unguided rocket found in the park - can be easily related to an earlier incident using google image search. Re Kiev trying to entice putler to intervene - are you plain fucking stupid? The antiterrorist op is going on for over two months, and there have been very, very few civilian casualties - mostly due to the fact, that Kiev ain't using heavy weapons in civilian areas. Not to mention, they barely use them at all. Some collateral damage ain't unheard of, because civilians around the conflict zones seem to be keen taking pics of dead bodies before the fights are over, not to mention, neo-like 'dodge the bullet' mentality.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, to twist the situation a bit, how would you feel if Mexico were shipping truckloads of militants with full set of AT, AA weapons, armed with automatic grenade launchers, machine guns, and in some cases, BMPs, to attack USA border control posts, then rolling their eyes, and saying - we don't know those people, and they bought all the equipment at Walmart?
Right, there's also the small issue of Russia annexing Crimea lately. And ripping out parts of Georgia few years ago. Why does it surprise you, that those countries want at least some security, provided by NATO? If you know you have a warmongering neighbor who WILL attack you and take your house and stuff, you really want all the help you can get.
Dear Andrius, I know Lithuania is a bit sensitive about the issue in Ukraine, but that doesn't make it right to buy in on all the BS that Kiev has been handing out by the bucket ! Besides, I'm always a little amused when seeing/reading someone who talks the talk like you do, using big words like Chechens "getting their ass handed" and "being shipped home in zinc coffins". Don't act so tough, unless you're actually walking the walk as well !
DeleteI'm not taking sides here, but as far as I'm concerned, i don't consider groups identifiable by something that resembles a uniform to be terrorists, when they're fighting an army, even if it's the army of the country they're in. In fact, they can be called anything but terrorists in this case, as this is established Law of war, recognized by the Geneva Conventions. So don't feed us your personal BS as if it were a truth carved in stone.
The operations taking place are limited to small areas for now, but this has two reasons: first of all, the Ukrainian authorities and armed forces are totally incapable of operating in two areas at the same time, which means one day they attack here and the next day they try something there, to give the impression of an overall "offensive" action that is basically just a media and PR stunt, with real deaths on the ground. Second, the conflict is still in its first phase and the pro-russian militias are playing a game of cat and mouse with the army, perfectly knowing this is a major problem for a force with weak leadership, moral and very limited abilitiy to manoeuver and move quickly.
Finally, the more deaths there are (especially civilian deaths) and the higher the conflict potential grows, so it's basically a lose-lose situation for Kiev ... Greetings from Baghdad, so to speak ... Kiev doesn't even learn from mistakes made by others, which shows how inept and incompetent they really are from a tactical and military point of view.
Wether this situation will escalate into a fully fledged Yougoslavia type of civil war is doubtful however, as neither the West nor the Russians have an interest in that and would try to refrain their proxies from going in thermo-nuclear mode, and also the populations that really have a bone to pick with each other live basically 1000 miles apart (the pro-Kiev right wing national guard is mostly from Lvov/Lviv/Lemberg area in the West, while the pro-russians are in the East). So you'll never get into the same level of hatred, chaos and anarchy where it's neighbour against neighbour and village against village.
More likely comparison would be a Northern Ireland model, with militias/armed groups or terrorists if you want to call them that against the State's army in areas where the majority or a strong minority of the population backs the rebels. And Russia as a home/support base for them, just like the Republic of Ireland has been for the IRA.
Be that as it may, what we're witnessing is not a counter-terrorist operation, but a totally botched and ineffective counter insurgency offensive ... that will make things only worse, regardless of the body count on the ground !
Syria, according to CNN, has seen some 150k people dead over the couple of years of conflict, which you might want to call a civil war. Meanwhile, in the Ukraine, the total count stands at less that 200 civilian casualties, with way more than that dead militants.
DeleteIf russia weren't sponsoring and equipping the terrorists, you wouldn't be seeing any action even in the south east of Ukraine. IMHO, putler is just using this as a smokescreen while he settles down in Crimea.
One thing I've learnt today is that Lithunians seem to have a morbid sense of humour, which isnt that bad really, at least not as bad as their military !
Deleteor maybe Ukraine is just stirring up some nostalgic feelings about the odd "miško broliai" ...
I should probably consider this some kind of wicked insult, but I won't. Some things are universal across the countries that consider their freedom the ultimate goal, and this includes hanging or shooting traitors and/or separatists on the spot. There was an episode in lithuanian history where certain people were unwilling to cooperate with the Soviet Union occupation, so yes, there was military resistance, which lasted for quite a while. This usually ain't pretty, because people tend to die, a lot.
ReplyDeleteOur military while not on par with the US or Germany, is reasonably well advanced, and served on multiple peacekeeping missions during the last 20 years. Some of them, like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_Special_Operations_Force, are supposedly highly rated by the allies in Afghanistan and Iraq. Not to mention, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to some extent) were warning the rest of the Western world about the danger that Russia is (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/eastern-europe-vladimir-putin-107094.html#.U43lR_mSx8M).
Nostalgy about Ukraine? Not really, our culture is different from theirs, we don't have that many economic ties either. This has more to do with the general feeling of good ole SU coming back while everybody refuses to believe cold war might be coming back. Because of the economy, and, you know, stuff.
On the other hand, I was in Kiev couple of months ago, saw my friends over there, watched their news, saw their disbelief that someone could just at the snap of the fingers annex part of their country, and still fail to recognize, that their long time ally and friend an partner actually fucked them in the ass while they were on the ground couldn't get up. That realization came to life now - and to a country, that is half the size of Germany, it's really a good thing.
Don't take it personnally, I'm just taking the piss. But seriously, all my sympathy to the Lithuanian people who want to be part free and live in a democracy, I understand recent events in Ukraine are more sensitive issue to them, considering their own history. As for Lithuanian history, there are shadowy parts as well that one shouldn't forget ... I can't just ignore the fact Lithuania is one of the most antisemitic countries I've ever been to in Europe ... and it has the history that goes with it ! I'm not of the forgetting or forgiving type, so don't expect any thumbs up from me. But you're covered by NATO, i.e. the USA, so I don't think you're at risk here.
DeleteAnyway, history is what it is and, wether good or bad, it doesn't make it right to stir up shit in another country that is already neck deep in it, even without Russian intervention of some sort ! As a State, Ukraine is just as failed as Iraq, and the worst thing about it is that they didn't need a foreign intervention to achieve that, they did it on their own, quite a performance when you come to think about it !
Almost forgot, but that's just a sidenote as I have time on my hands today, mentioning the USA and Germany in the same sentence regarding military capabilities is quite "ludicrous" to put it mildly. And I dont mean just sizewise ... Anyone who has seen the "Bundeswehr" go on patrol in Kunduz Province will know what I'm talking about ! Pathetic is the other word that comes to mind. So if you want to compare yourself to them, I'm afraid, you're not gonna score many points here.
DeleteIf you're one of those holocaust your grandpa killed my grandpa dudes, then you're totally off-topic. So while it was a tragedy, I wasn't there, none of my friends were there, and I don't approve it, but you can't blame ME for it. As for the antisemitism, you better look at putler's fascist first. I have plenty of Jewish friends (also from Ukraine!), so you're really barking at the wrong tree.
DeleteYes I'm one of "those dudes" as you so elegantly put it, but i'm not your buddy so unless you're willing to call me "your Dudeness", leave the whole dude thing out of it, seems misplaced, sort of gives the impression this "tragedy" wasn't so bad after all. but maybe it's that Lithuanian sense of humour again
DeleteIt's been three generations since that crap happened. Why do I have to take the blame? You want me to prove I had nothing to do with it? Well, I was born some 30+ years after it took place. Was it a tragedy for Lithuanian citizens, who happened to be Jewish? Yes, it was. Could I have done something about it? But it's getting really offtopic, the whole Lithuania antisemitism is pretty much a myth by now.
DeleteExpecting 320mil vs 80mil vs 3mil nations military capabilities to be equal is just plain stupid. Their specops on the other hand - given the funding, equipment, and efficiency, are quite comparable.
ReplyDeleteGerman special ops ? I rest my case ...
Deleteare you still angry about the Muenich Olympics? Seriously dude, what's wrong with you?
Delete