I was watching the honorable gentleman from S. Carolina (is he gay?) and he made a comment that stuck me like a 2x4.
He said we need to be getting our people out of Iraq now!
But why aren't we? You can't keep something like that quiet and there are at least 3000 people in that embassy so why the delay with rebels rapidly approaching?
My guess? American lives are worth less than the cost in presidential prestige that would take a serious nose dive if we were seen doing the Saigon thing in Iraq.
UPDATE: So if they did decide to evacuate how would it happen? I'm guessing they have this weekend to get it done before events spiral out of control. The USMC would love a bite at this apple but it doesn't have the forces in the region to get it done. Even if we did it would be a challenge for Marine Air to evacuate this many people.
That means we're looking at the US Army and Air Force.
The biggest problem is going to be keeping SOCOM's grubby hands off things. Their commander (McRaven) is an ego maniac. If his boys ain't doing it then it ain't worth doing it. The problem for them is that they don't have the number of personnel needed to fight off these terrorists....unless they suddenly pulled a Ranger Battalion and combined it with MARSOC.
So I'm guessing that the 82nd will probably get the call. The Division Ready Brigade should have already been put on alert for possible deployment so the call up time should be less than the standard 72 hours. The USAF would probably need to get together a C-17 Squadron and be prepared for a couple of ferry flights to Turkey from Iraq. Getting personnel safely from the Embassy to the airport will be the biggest problem. If they're driving to the airport then thats going to be where they will get hit. Even breaking down a few CH-47's, and flying them into country and using them to ferry people from the embassy to the airport will be an issue.
I wonder how many MANPADS the terrorists captured?
This is a mess. They waited too long. A clean exit is not possible anymore.
NOTE: For all those that are saying that the terrorists can't take Baghdad, let me ask you one question. Have you ever heard of operational momentum? Have you ever wondered why the assault into Kuwait in Gulf War One, how the Iraqi Army folded so fast in Gulf War Two, and how the Special Forces on horseback were able to rollup forces seemingly at will? The established operational momentum. That's what the terrorists have going for them now. They're already inside the decision making loop of all that are involved and if they're smart they're going to press this attack. Baghdad can fall. If the terrorist show the same fortitude that they have so far then its almost a certainty!
He said we need to be getting our people out of Iraq now!
But why aren't we? You can't keep something like that quiet and there are at least 3000 people in that embassy so why the delay with rebels rapidly approaching?
My guess? American lives are worth less than the cost in presidential prestige that would take a serious nose dive if we were seen doing the Saigon thing in Iraq.
UPDATE: So if they did decide to evacuate how would it happen? I'm guessing they have this weekend to get it done before events spiral out of control. The USMC would love a bite at this apple but it doesn't have the forces in the region to get it done. Even if we did it would be a challenge for Marine Air to evacuate this many people.
That means we're looking at the US Army and Air Force.
The biggest problem is going to be keeping SOCOM's grubby hands off things. Their commander (McRaven) is an ego maniac. If his boys ain't doing it then it ain't worth doing it. The problem for them is that they don't have the number of personnel needed to fight off these terrorists....unless they suddenly pulled a Ranger Battalion and combined it with MARSOC.
So I'm guessing that the 82nd will probably get the call. The Division Ready Brigade should have already been put on alert for possible deployment so the call up time should be less than the standard 72 hours. The USAF would probably need to get together a C-17 Squadron and be prepared for a couple of ferry flights to Turkey from Iraq. Getting personnel safely from the Embassy to the airport will be the biggest problem. If they're driving to the airport then thats going to be where they will get hit. Even breaking down a few CH-47's, and flying them into country and using them to ferry people from the embassy to the airport will be an issue.
I wonder how many MANPADS the terrorists captured?
This is a mess. They waited too long. A clean exit is not possible anymore.
NOTE: For all those that are saying that the terrorists can't take Baghdad, let me ask you one question. Have you ever heard of operational momentum? Have you ever wondered why the assault into Kuwait in Gulf War One, how the Iraqi Army folded so fast in Gulf War Two, and how the Special Forces on horseback were able to rollup forces seemingly at will? The established operational momentum. That's what the terrorists have going for them now. They're already inside the decision making loop of all that are involved and if they're smart they're going to press this attack. Baghdad can fall. If the terrorist show the same fortitude that they have so far then its almost a certainty!
Why aren't we evacuating? One possibility--
ReplyDeleteIran Quds force commander, Qassem Suleimani met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki today and pledged to send two Iranian brigades to aid in the defense of Baghdad.
i read that but you don't depend on a foreign force to safeguard your people. we're seeing an enemy offensive approaching the capital of a weak ally. we should be clearing out just to be safe and prudent. we're not and it smacks of hubris.
DeleteSMAGTF. They are deliberatly delaying withdrawal so that SMAGTF hostage evacuation concepts can be tested.
Deleteway too small a formation. one of my arguments against it. a SPMAGTF has at most 8 MV-22's the way they have it laid out. additionally they can have a couple of KC-130's....fighters of sometype would probably be added but you're talking about an embassy that has at least 1000 people. at least. i've heard numbers approaching 5k but i can't find anything solid.
Deletelong story short you would need a Marine Air Wing to do an all air evacuation of the Iraq Embassy. once you're talking about an air wing and attached infantry battalions you're into Marine Expeditionary Brigade territory.
Reminds me of that Tommy Lee Jones and Samuel L Jackson movie where an MEU went in to evacuate a US embassy. Off course, that movie movie evacuation was small in comparison the scale here. And i think if you include all americans in Iraq with the embassy staff, that number could be on the 5K side. Include all other embassies and their respective citizens and you have something like the Berlin Airlift about to happen. And wasnt that fun.
DeleteNow I shall want my Govt. to set up a Fortified Consulate in Kurdistan territory linking up with Iran and Turkey. Oil must flow. And the Kurdish region must be supported.
DeleteI bet it will be a nice ego/prestige boost to the Iranians if they somehow land/drive/rail right into Baghdad and declare the Airport Open for Evacuation live on CNN and BBC with a giant poster of some Ayatollah hanging in the background and a T-72 or something rumbling about.
DeleteBaghdad is more diverse than the Northern Cities that have fallen. My guess is the Iraqi Army can hold since it is Shia territory (sorta). That being said Baghdad International is 25km from the Embassy, watch the Styker and Airborne Brigades. If evacuation is ordered it will be the Army's show.
ReplyDeleteairborne yes. stryker? i don't think so. the airborne boys will probably go in anti-armor heavy or have the USAF provide a constant cap while they're evacuating but thats the rub. the earlier you start the smaller the force you'll need because you'll have fewer personnel to protect.
Deletewhoever the idiot was that thought building ft. apache in Iraq and that would protect it from terrorists was smoking crack. they need the thing out in the boonies with electronic/roving protection. you're probably talking about a brigade worth of combat troops from here on out.
sounds like the US army just got a new rotation.
Not going to happen. They are withdrawing from Sunni territory, back towards Shia territory. Once they are on their own turf, the IA will find a backbone. IA is basically viewed as another occupying force by the Sunni's and their withdrawal isn't unexpected. Shit, man, conventional Arab armies always suck.
ReplyDeleteNo proven junior officers, no professional NCOs, just lot's of tribal members with competing loyalties
I am completly surprised. Arent these the same people who fought side by side with US forces ? Dont they have a decade or so of counter terrorism and counter insurgency experience that they are running away like scared rabbits ?
DeleteMost of the IA during our occupation was staffed by Shias and Kurdish Peshmerga, fighting the Sunnis in places like Al Anbar province.
DeleteThen we got smart and put the Sunnis on the payroll as neighborhood watch with AKs and RPGs. It bought us time and employed thousands of well-armed young men. We bought the peace and we declared victory, then left.
Many factors, including:
Delete--The US disbanded the experienced Iraq army, lots of Sunni officers and NCOs, many of them probably now with ISIS.
--So the current Iraq army is mainly a checkpoint army.
--The Maliki government, being Shia alined with Iran, is also corrupt and noninclusive of Sunni, and never picked up the payroll for the Sunni mercs as Paralus indicated.
My Brother watched a lesson being taught to Iraqi's after the Gulf war it was for the security forces, they handed out manuals to each man describing how to keep a weapon clean and how to disassemble them.
DeleteAfter the class the Officer in charge had his NCO's pick up every manual and store them in a box. The Sgt in Charge said to the Man, " But those are for your troops so they can learn and teach how to maintain weapons they are meant to be kept by the trops" The Officer said, "Yes but If I know how to clean and maintain the weapons and the troops don' that gives me power over them, if they know how to maintain the weapons on their own then what do they need me for?" It's about power, and knowledge is power if everyone has the knowledge his power was less even if it meant having a fighting force that could not on it's own and individually maintain it's weapons.
My brother said, Arabs, grown men with the minds of a child, trained to be stupid and led but not to think for themselves.
It's one reason for the love of the AK rifles.
He said the Iraqi's would not aim their rifles or weapons, they simply shot in the direction told and let Allah guide the bullet, if it hit is was Allah's will, if not it was Allah's will, they bore no responsibility either way.
I wouldn't look for military genius from our too-many, overfed, pigs-at-the-trough, flag-ranks.
ReplyDelete--If we wanted you to think we would have issued you a brain--
DeleteI have a rebuttal: LIEUTENANT COLONEL ROBERT BATEMAN UNITED STATES ARMY.
DeleteYeah, but Sol, you are discounting the operational environment.
ReplyDeleteA hated Pashtun-dominated Taliban/AQ force, in Northern Afghanistan, surrounded by Tajiks, Uzbeks, etc. and hundreds of miles from their southern Afghan bases got rocked by a combination of US airpower/Special Forces and Northern Alliance ground troops.
Once the Sunni ISIS starts to get farther from their Al-Anbar strongholds and get near Shia neighborhoods or shrines, you will see Shia militias and IA fight with more determination. Thus Far, ISIS is fighting on its own turf, where it has a supportive population and knowledge of the terrain.
To answer your question: Yes Lindsey Grahamnesty is a total pole-smoker.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many MANPADS the terrorists captured?
ReplyDelete->How many manpads CIA distributed in Syria ?
We can't see that only In Iraki borders : THey don't make it in syria so they try to take Irak, much easier target... That's my point of view
Iran's joning in the fight. Iran already sent 150 elite advisors and is offering to send 10K elite troops to battle the ISIS on behalf of the Shiite government of Iraq.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/13/as-jihadists-take-aim-at-baghdad-iran-steps-in-to-help-historical-foe/
Even Iran is offering help but the US is not even ready to evacuate that embassy? Shit man...
DeleteIran will save their bacon, and then say: Hey, about that sanctions thing....
ReplyDeleteI remeber a while ago a presentation that showed theoratically the benefits if operation Eagle claw had been done with Ospreys.
ReplyDeleteIf things get really hot , i expect a surge of Ospreys in Kuwait for example.
You say 5000 people are in that embassy complex.
I bet you could "stick" like 50 people in an Osprey ( just people no baggage or else ) .
So depending on the urgency you could do evacuate thoose people with Ospreys very quick ( they have to place 20-30 ospreys in kuwait ) .
that failed operation is the "real" reason for being for the Osprey. i call bullshit. the very concept of the mission was jacked up from the ground up. how are you going to penetrate that deeply into enemy airspace (even back then) and conduct a rescue mission of hostages?
Deletei'm sorry but you can't jam pack that many Americans into a V-22. everyone always marvels at the way we could shove 100 vietnamese into a CH-53 but you're talking about people that are small and weigh a buck oh five.
even the average american female is tapping the scales at 160 and we're talking fat and flabby not fit and fabulous. i won't even touch on the guys but its the same.
there aren't enough V-22s in a Squadron to get this done.
It didn't work with Osprey in South Sudan.
Deleteexactly which shows what a joke the Osprey is in the ingress and egress. whatever that ring state did to the airplane its affected its operations and people will get shot up in landing zones.
Deletethats why the CH-53K is being touted as a penetrator! you will see missions where the V-22 sits out because of its landing profile.
Obama: No troops to Iraq
ReplyDeleteI'm betting the brass and politicks are concerned about the optics issues that would pop up should we end a ten-year conflict by Helicopter evacing our embassy from a chaotic city surrounded by hostile enemy forces.
ReplyDeleteBonus points for dramatic pictures of people fighting at the embassy gates.
Bonus points if the ospreys land on the roof.
Extra special Bonus points if the Aircraft Carrier Squids get to push Iraqi helicopters overboard.
.
We swapped five GITMO turds for one deserter, now, if they take 300 hostages of American's at the embassy and we give them five GITMO turds per One embassy hostage that's 1500 GITMO turds released from GITMO.
ReplyDeleteJust saying, he is in no hurry to evac and he is in a hell of a hurry to close GITMO.
Maybe they can up it to ten GITMO turds per Embassy hostage!
I read where 1500 Iraqi soldiers were executed at one go, the leader's head was used as a soccor ball.
ReplyDeleteOperational momentum is right and these guys got nothing in their way, Baghdad by Monday I'm guess if not sooner.
Soccor ball?......grrrrr, when will you americans realize its called a Football. Do we have to cram USA with Mexicans before you start saying Football, not Soccer.
Delete