We're still not getting the real story on the force that was sent to evacuate the embassy. Check this out from Marine Times...
Overhead, three Air Force F-16 fighters and two Marine Corps MV-22 Ospreys kept watch on the convoy, said Tom Saunders, a spokesman for U.S. Africa Command in Germany. The aircraft were accompanied by an unspecified number of surveillance drones.So lets see.
“We did provide [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] support,” Saunders said, “but as a matter of policy we don't discuss ISR operations, to include the number of assets supporting a mission.”
The F-16s, which flew out of Aviano Air Base in Italy, were supported by a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker from RAF Mildenhall in England, Saunders said.
A 24-man Marine quick reaction force and a two-person medical team were inside the Ospreys, Saunders said. They were supported by a KC-130 refueling tanker. All of those personnel are assigned to Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response based in Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy.
80 USMC Infantrymen reinforced the Marine Security Guard at the embassy. You add another 24 in the MV-22's flying overhead...probably Force Recon or MARSOC, they wouldn't dare let a regular line company get the mission.
But overhead you have three F-16's and probably a whole shitload of tankers to keep the MV-22's refueled since they're flying race track patterns over the convoy.
So what was the plan if they got hit?
I don't know how big the convoy was so you do the standard kill the lead, trail and command vehicle then go after the rest if you're a terrorist? That's not much reaction time for the Marines flying overhead or the F-16's. That means they had a shitload of UAVs scouting the route...probably armed too. But you had to account for someone getting lucky and avoiding detection. You also have to account for a mechanical problem in one of the vehicles causing you to have to abandon it and continue on without leaving personnel behind.
And finally you have to account for the possibility that sugar turns to shit and you have to get people out because all the vehicles are killed/disabled.
Yep. They're not telling us the whole/real story on this plan...This package was light as hell, didn't have much redundancy built into it and doesn't account for worst case scenarios.
Sidenote: I'm guessing that this whole "drive out of Libya" was more a political decision than operational one. The boys from the 160th could have flown in with their MH-47....say 6 of them for redundancy....landed at the embassy, been protected by UAVs and F-16s and been out of the country in much less time than this clusterfuck. I'm smelling the fear of a Saigon Evacuation driving common sense military ops.
Remember that in a NEO (noncombatant evacuation operation) the Ambassador is in charge. Odds are good that this was the largest force package that the Ambassador felt comfortable allowing. JP 3-68 lays out the lines of responsibility, and the Ambassador gets to make the final call on force package size. I was looking at the contingency plan for evacuation of another country where the Army filled in for a missing MEU and we were not happy with all the restrictions and force package size, but when they call an evacuation, we have to play by their rules.
ReplyDeletewow. forgot about that. but in this case would it still be considered a NEO with the threat level as high as it obviously was? and what is your opinion of my assertion that a more sound plan would have involved simply flying in a half dozen MH-47's and getting everyone out in one quick movement instead of a 5 hour trek through the desert?
DeleteI absolutely agree that your plan is more sound Sol, but like AM said it is the Ambassador who has final say on the plan and even though the threat was obviously high it's still an NEO unless our guys are actively being attacked.
DeleteOn another note it sounds like the USAF F-16's had a pretty strong deterrent effect, as all fighting in Tripoli reportedly ended the moment they showed up. Guess the NATO air campaign is still fresh in everyone's minds.
Solomon, I would have seized a flat strip of land and got everyone out in one trip on a C-130. But the Ambassador probably wanted to exit the country with as little military presence on the ground as possible, hence the convoy operation. Once the locals see American aircraft landing and non-military personnel getting on board, there is no real good diplomatic spin on that. But a train of vehicles driving out under their own power covered by aircraft too high in the sky for the locals to make out? Diplomatic spin city, especially with all the other vehicles that flee chaos zones.
ReplyDeleteNot exactly too high to make out....
Deletehttps://twitter.com/search?q=tripoli&src=typd&mode=photos