WERTH: Lieutenant General Bogdan does not fear a death spiral. He says costs have actually dropped over the past four years. And his goal is to get the F-35's price down to around $85 million dollars each. Although, he says any uncertainty does not help that process.Explain something to me.
BOGDAN: As people waver, it makes it harder for us to project how much the airplane is going to cost. So what we're really looking for is stability.
WERTH: To get that stability, Bogdan says he's here talking to partner countries about what he calls a block buy, which would allow partner nations to pull their orders and purchase F-35s at a wholesale price.
BOGDAN: My incentive to them is if you commit to buying X number of airplanes over five years, I'm going to give you a discount.
WERTH: At the same time, America's allies may not have a choice in the matter. The F-35 is the only advanced, fifth-generation fighter available to replace aging military fleets. And any alternative could be decades in the making. For NPR News, I'm Christopher Werth in Farnborough, England.
The orders from S. Korea, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK and Australia were already baked into the cake.
The orders from the US military are too.
But something funny has happened along the way.
The Netherlands cut its order almost in half. The UK are buying far fewer than originally planned. Canada still hasn't made a decision, Singapore hasn't climbed aboard and made a firm buy decision, the Italians are making noise about going even lower than the few they're already buying and no one else seems interested.
Now we have Bogdan talking about block buys of an airplane that hasn't even finished testing.
That doesn't smack of desperation?
This whole thing doesn't have the whiff of a death spiral attached to it?
Why the cost cutting scheme? Why the block buy scheme? Why do any of it if the plane is on the proper cost trajectory?
Its simple. They've crunched the numbers, projected costs and found that unless they get foreign buyers to buy the plane NOW then the future is indeed cloudy.
This "no show" at the UK airshow is a big deal. A very big deal. We're seeing the first death gurgle of this program.
I couldn't be happier.
Oh Sol' you continue to crack me up! I see your comedy has even been recognised elsewhere: http://captiongenerator.com/17013/Hitler-is-not-happy-with-F35-announcement
ReplyDeletei let you back because for a few short minutes you were coming up with arguments. not this stupid, asinine, low brow humor you seem to enjoy.
Deletemake arguments to support your position or i toss you back into the dumb ass pile.
You got it right -- there is no finished F-35 available for sale.
ReplyDeleteThere are only "XF-35" faulty prototypes, that might catch fire on takeoff.
The F-35 Milestone C production decision is scheduled for 2019 according to the SAR.
""XF-35" faulty prototypes, that might catch fire on takeoff." Making up designations now are we Don? Also with the ridiculous comments? Must be getting desperate...
ReplyDeleteIn order for an intelligent buyer of military equipment to make a decision, what they are looking at can't be shitty, half-ass, incomplete, faulty and so on. "As people waver". That would apply to incompetent program management and engineering assumptions. That continue to this day. Almost 13 years after LM won the JSF contract. And Bogdan's tour will be up soon. He, like those before him won't be around to either give a shit or have any accountability. Curious what kind of revolving door job he will get after retirement.
ReplyDeleteThe program has a loooong way to go to get to $85 million dollars each.
ReplyDeleteFY2015 UNIT PRICES
based on FY2015 budget request
procurement only including 2014 advance procurement funds
26 F-35A @ $162m
6 F-35B @ $234m
2 F-35C @ $384m
And that's for faulty prototypes, but who wants those. The US already has enough (about 30) for development testing and because of "concurrency" which is manufacturing more prototypes than they need for testing, and the most recent engine failure, they now have about a hundred prototypes that are effectively in the test fleet.
Under the rules of the flight resumption, the F-35s are limited to a maximum speed of Mach 0.9 and 18 degrees of angle of attack. They can go from minus 1 G to a 3 G’s. After three hours of flight time, each front fan section of each engine has to be inspected with a borescope.
What country is going to commit to buying X number of airplanes over five years under those conditions, even if Bogdan gives them a discount?
Any particular reason Turkey, Israel and Norway were left out of the list of buyers of the F-35?
ReplyDeleteIsrael bought 19. hardly impressive. Turkey is suppose to buy 100. they don't have one plane with the turkish flag on it though. Norway has 16 coming...out of a buy of 50.
Deletei forgot those countries but the numbers are hardly impressive and don't change the facts. they're still on a cost cutting mission, i can smell the desperation and so can you, and the F-35 just can't get its act together.
--Turkey has not bought any and may buy two next year, or the next, or the next.
Delete--Israel is not a partner (the subject of the thread). The US intends to put major pressure on the partners, which as we know isn't necessary with Israel which enjoys a special financial relationship with the US.
--Norway has bought only four prototypes but not taken delivery yet, even though the F-35 has not yet undergone climatic testing. They're betting on global warming, apparently. Norway intended to buy Gripen but the US applied major pressure, including withholding Raytheon AESA from Gripen.
Nice try - tell me why were these countries mentioned then? "S. Korea, Japan and Singapore?" Not mentioned by me however.
DeleteAlso Denmark, zero.
DeleteF-35 partners
original requirement --730
ordered thru LRIP-7 --16
Which is why Bogdan is upset, although the partners' requirements are for finished products, not for prototypes, aren't they. The program was supposed to have finished products by this time, but through contractor's failure to perform and sloppy management they are nowhere near a finished product with only the "XF-35" now available.
We got a new editor from Oz.
DeleteCan't deal with the facts, so make sure all the i's are dotted and the t's crossed.
damn Spazinbad, are you being this dense on purpose? is it impossible for you to take a big picture view of things or must you insist on playing lawyer and wanting to dance around the dotting of the "i"s and crossing of the "t"s?
Deleteattack the point i'm trying to make. stop being a bitch.
"The F-35 is the only advanced, fifth-generation fighter available to replace aging military fleets."
ReplyDelete*Every plane issued with a free borescope for those pesky three-hour exams.*
Am I the new editor from Oz? Thanks. When do I start and where?
ReplyDeleteYou are having a bad day, obviously.
DeleteYou must think you're dealing with rubes b/c you're not on F-16 or PPRuNe.
You are wrong.
I guess the point is the death spiral? That has been mentioned a few times now on this blog. Is it happening?
ReplyDeleteyou fucking right it is you son of a bitch. wanna play? not on my blog you bastard. you picked the wrong day to play Sferrin with me. fuck you.
DeleteYes it is, because Bogdan and Kendall are focusing on the affordability of a system which isn't even available in finished form yet, and won't be for many years. They are pushing the Block Buy and the Blueprint for Affordability to encourage countries to buy airplanes before their time. That's desperation.
DeleteAnd if they fail at this, which they probably will, then the F-35 unit prices will stay up in the $200m+ range thus effectively causing the death of the program. They can't afford to hold in the present pattern for five more years, to the Milestone C production decision. Nothing in life can stay the same for five years, or more, and the failed F-35 program is no exception.
Besides the F-35 performance issues which inhibit sales,
ReplyDelete--Foreign F-35s are different from US F-35s as I discuss in A Tale of Two Lightnings .
--Other systems, like Gripen, offer all system data rights whereas LockMart controls all data rights on the F-35, which means that customers are unable to change the software for example (ten million lines).
Speaking of the Gripen, have you seen this?
Deletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ec7FAE1UgR8/U8Xfcphkz7I/AAAAAAAADuY/Ya1Jay52pf4/s1600/10538662_661929373893708_7926095925669959280_n.jpg
Jackpot!finally you wrote the right stuff (most of the time I disagree with what you write)
ReplyDeleteThat is what worries us, not performance, that we know is a long process of tunning, not even the price since the eurofighter costed us (spain calculation) 220$ at piece and it isn't even the tranche 3 eurofighter!
We are buying a platform with 0,zero,nada, control over it, hardware&software, adapting our weapons will be almost impossible.
To be honest what I would love right now is an ultimatum from uk/ita on this aspect,
you know the funny part? With so many data leaks probably the chinese know more on the f-35 than us your allies.
Data rights are a problem on the JSF even for the US.
DeleteLt. Gen. Christopher Bodgan: "little attention was paid to the F-35 data rights ownership issues until about 18 months ago and it is a high priority issue today." The "Pentagon and its lawyers are working with the JSF program's main industry participants to sort out data rights ownership questions, many of which remain unresolved.
from LM powerpoint, MOU to Canada
Notice to U.S. Government
Access to this printed document or electronic file does not constitute delivery of the data to the U.S. Government as contemplated under the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) or DoD FAR Supplement (DFARS). By proceeding to view the data contained herein, you acknowledge that the data is confidential and contains trade secrets and/or privileged information of Lockheed Martin or its subcontractors and suppliers.
I realize this might sound socialist but we all after LM has fucked up beyond belief with the JSF program, now it looks like we are going to buy it, can we at least cut LM out of the project? I'm talking complete nationalization of the project, LM from this point doesn't make a dime off the program. Every employee still gets paid, all suppliers still get paid, but there needs to be accountability.
ReplyDeleteNext step in the F35 marketing campain, buy one get one free! or given recent events, fire sale, everything must go!
ReplyDeleteI guess the only comforting thing here is that your Rivals 5th generation planes are also not ready yet.
ReplyDeletePerhaps chinese copy is already working better...
ReplyDeleteThen everybody is beginning to learn how the fifth generation thing is bullshit.
LM want to keep right on software to restrict external access on it : Pentagon can't see the mess in the code...
And, for memory, you could have bought over 20000 Rafales for this price...
ReplyDeleteWell, basic logic says that you can buy a superior number of any cheaper aircraft for the price of the F-35 Project.....many more Rafales, Many more Gripens, Many more F-16/18s etc.
DeleteBut dig in a bit more into this 2 or 3 fighters instead of 1 argument a bit more and you realise that when you buy X2 or X3 times the aircraft.....or many more number of aircraft, you are also buying pilots, runways, airports, air traffice controllers, ground maintenance crew, mammoth inventory, additional billable maintenance hours, more fuel, the need to maintain 20+ hours a month of flying time for not X but 2X or 3X number of aircraft.
For the USA which has a huge number of military pilots back up by an equally big number of civilian pilots reserves, it may be simple to play the numbers game. But not for other smaller Pilot Starved countries.
Even if the USA were to scrap the F35 project and replace it for now with F-18's or any other type....I wonder if the US and F-35 Ally countries taxpayers would support enlarging the total number of aircraft.
I think you're ignoring, to some degree, the non-aircraft costs of the F-35. Higher maintenance per airframe, more highly trained technicians needed, runway/deck improvements to enable VTOL operations, etc.
DeleteAt least compare apples to apples. If the F-35 costs the same as 3 (insert replacement), then going with two and leaving the savings on the 3rd for infrastructure/logistics would probably work.
The thing is they bluff you with f35, fifth generation bla bla and the only thing that is proven is the overcost of these aicraft.
DeleteThe number of 20000 rafale is symbolic : it s more than china missile inventory. These number say that USA could keep his actual airframe count, and not shrink it to 3k...