You're a LCpl in the USMC.
You're on patrol in some Middle Eastern country. You don't care about the politics or the controversy. The only thing you care about is getting home alive (hopefully in one piece) and making sure all of your buddies do too.
Suddenly out of nowhere you start taking fire from one of the few Christian churches in the region.
Do you.....
A. Return fire, assured in the fact that senior leadership will have your back because the enemy chose to make a place of worship a fortification and a legitamite target? Or....
B. Sit there and do nothing while your buddies die all around you...because its a place of worship?
Expand that to a "nation state". What do you do when the enemy has militarized every Mosque, hospital, school, UN facility, residence etc....
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAMAS HAS DONE!
Check out the image above. How do you target only military installations when the entire area they control has been converted into a military installation? You accept the reality of the situation and act accordingly. Hamas has chosen to place its people in harms way.
Well that didn't last long.
Israel accepts a ceasefire (the same one I was railing against) and what does Hamas do? They launch an ambush and kidnap/kill Israeli soldiers. AMAZING! How can they get so slack in their force protection measures? This is not the Israeli military that I know!
This conflict stopepd being one about "Palestinian People" and "Israeli People" a long time ago.
ReplyDeleteThis conflict stopped being one about "Dignified Living" for both parties a long time ago.
This conflict right now is-
One Organization with lofty ambitions and not a fraction of resources available to accomplish that. (Hamas)
And another Organization with all the resources in the world but a non existant end game plan or a very vaguely defined end game plan. (IDF)
Well put, Singh! Lots of people here feel the same way. However, since we do not have the information and the strategic assesments Natanyahu is getting from the Defence Establishment, we can not form a reliable opinion.
DeleteRemember, the $11 billion contract with Qatar. Then there is the $4 billion contract for air defence systems with Turkey. Erdoan is very smartly "playing" the Americans by postponing the signing till the end on August. (The election for President -or Sultan- is on the 10th.August). Kerry and Obama need that contract not to go to the Chinese and to shore up Raytheon's business (the stock went down 2% recently and they are firing 1000 out of 65,000 workers!!!). Why did Kerry rush to Qatar so fast? Ignoring the only real power in the Moddle East, Egypt. Only a very inexperienced Secretary of State does that.
Things are really complicated, but lots of other variables are in play: Ukrain, Russia, China stirring things up in Southeast Asia, Korea and finally the Great Satan, Iran. No wonder the US is acting so erratically and reacting, instead of proacting. Hesitation evrywhere. Syria, Iraq, you name it. It's all connected somehow.
On John Kerry- He is on a 3 day visit to India at the moment. 3 days is 2 days too much usually but in this case he has "Business" to conduct. Chief of which is India's opposition to the way Agricultural Subsidies are calculated which might just derail the Doha Trade talks of the WTO. And, we recently signed a deal with the French to put up a 10,000 MW nuclear Power power plant whereas the US Westinghouse proposal is still stuck in Bureacratic Quagmire. Btw, the USA is our greatest opposition in the World Treaty Organization because of the Agri Subsidy. I have heard that bad skirmishes have already broken out between US-Indian Bureucrats which is why Kerry is here to calm the waters.
DeleteThe thing that always stumps me is that when looked at with normal glasses, the US and India are natural Allies...if I can use that word with most Indians looking at the US with admiration, and respect. A true land of Opportunity. The people to people relations and Military to Military relations are pretty good. But the Govt. to Govt. relations are truly cursed. For some stupid reason or another our Leaders always end up on opposite polls.
On Reccep Tayip Erdogan- He is one smart savvy political leader who's main goal is to always find a seat to sit when the music stops. I guess thats the discription for most politicians but more so for him. How he has survived the Turkish Military, the protests, the corruption allegations etc. are great feats in their own right. And I also really like the way they have supported the Kurdish Govt. giving the rest of the world a true margin of error or a buffer we can actually believe in.
DeleteOn Netanyahu- I have no doubt that the Information he is getting is on a another level to what is released for civilian consumption. But suppose the information he is recieving is well and truly disturbing and confirms some of the worst fears (whatever they may be).......how will he react ?
DeleteThose worst fears-
What if Hamas rocket stocks are a lot more than anticipated ?
What if they get longer ranged or more accurate rockets ?
What if our assumption that the majority of palestinians are innocent and not true supporters of hamas turns out to be false assumption ?
What if for some wild card reason, Hamas bombards Egypt with those rockets making this a Tri-Lateral conflict ?
On Qatar Arms Buy- Luckily, arms being sold to the Qataris are not Non-State Actor/Terrorist compliant. Had they been 11 billion dollars worth of man portable AA/AT missiles and other infantry arms, then that would have been a true cause for concern. 11 billion dollars is more than enough to convert every Kalashnikov totting terrorist/revolutionary/freedom fighter/tribal fighter etc. from 7.62x39 Warsaw to 5.56x45 Nato. Optic sights, ergo grips, picatanny rails, UGL's included.
DeleteBy the way, is it true that most Egyptians are also fed up with Hamas and that a certain Egyptian TV show was very critical of Hamas ?
ReplyDeleteIf so, a link or two would be helpfull.
Whether the general Egyptian populace is fed up is anyone's guess. The Eqyptian military though certainly is as are their subordinates in most of the media in Egypt. There have been multiple Egyptian TV personalities that have fully and completely condemed HAMAS and extended offers for them to open the border so that the actual HAMAS leadership can actually enter the Gaza strip.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VtENBF_yjo&list=UUpBvIBfZ-foo5ZbLH5O0N4g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xuYcjubV7I&list=UUpBvIBfZ-foo5ZbLH5O0N4g
Hamas don't care about anything, ISIS/L don't care about anything either, that is why they are able to act like savages. Normal members of society think about potential harm their actions can do not only to themselves and their immediate family but also potential harm to others within society as a whole. Our failing here in the West is to expect our militaries to act like civilians and consider wider harm, and that can't always be done. Reduce collateral damage as much as possible certainly. But we have militaries do things that fall outside the norms of our society. If we have recourse to use them we must step aside to let them do their job with expedition as possible.
ReplyDeleteThe ceasefire never took effect. IDF was engaging Hamas forces in southern Gaza the whole morning, and firefight keeps going. Neither side is interested in stopping atm. Honestly, the biggest problem right now, and the reason why IDF hasn't charged yet, is the question of who is gonna control Gaza after Hamas is taken care of. We are more than willing to go and clean out Hamas, but we don't want anything to do with post-war Gaza. Neither does Egypt. Abbas and his PA are willing, but realistically, they don't have enough military strength to get a grip on post-war Gaza. US obviously ain't gonna deploy troops, EU are more worried about Ukraine. UN troops are useless, they were deployed in Lebanon to oversee Hezbollah disarmament, and did exactly jack-shit. Which, in hindsight, is not such a bad thing, because when ISIS (IS) are done in Syria, and if they decide to invade Lebanon, Hezbollah is the only force around there that can stop their advance.
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't know why all the fuss surrounding Gaza. Its like its the only problem in middle east at the moment.
i agree that its a sideshow but i'm more interested in the performance of the IDF, its armored vehicles and soldiers.
Deletelike the vid showing the ambush on that outpost.
lessons learned are stacking up. quite honestly if i lived in Israel i wouldn't go anywhere without being in condition red. additionally i'm a little disappointed in the performance of the IDF infantry. i'm alarmed that Israeli intelligence didn't realize how extensive this tunnel network is. i'm a little miffed that the vaunted Israeli air force has played such a small role. i'm dismayed that the Israeli Navy also appears to be sitting this one out....and finally i'm wondering where all those glorious Israeli special ops units are. all we've heard about is an special ops engineer outfit but from reading about them they sound more like a school house creation than a combat outfit. what about the other guys. this seems like it should be an all hands on deck moment but i'mn not seeing it.
Its called "being overconfident". Although, the majority of the problems comes from leadership that can't decide what it wants to do, and over-restrictive ROE. The latter is already fixed, as you can see from the overall decrease of IDF causalties, and increase in Hamas casualties, as well as increase in civilian losses. As for the rest - Military Intelligence screwed the pooch. Big time. They were aware of Hamas preparation's, but were not aware just how big they were. Like the usual, when Intel folk screw up, soldiers pay for that with blood.
DeleteAbout the Special Forces.....well, they are used. But the current Gaza war is pretty much about door2door fighting, its about attrition and wrecking Hamas one Gazan house at a time. You need old skool hard-as-nails combat infantry for this, like Marines, or IDF infantry brigades. Special forces are good for fancy precision glamour, maybe targeted assassinations and arrests. In current war, they are only marginally better than general infantry.
For what its worth....I believe this war might be good for IDF. But more so, its also good for general public, who finally figured that sometimes, even US of A government needs to be told to go F itself. And, hopefully, our next elected government will have the balls to do just that. No offence.
Also, Sol, you have to remember, that for Israelis, that kind of life been pretty much a given reality for the past several years. If its not Gaza, its northern border. Or West Bank. Or infiltrations from Sinai. Or something else. People just got used to it. Thats why you dont see the sense of urgency emanating from Israelis. Maybe its wrong. It probably is wrong. But you can only give so much fucks before you just go along with it.
DeleteSolomon you are so right, Either it is a PR screw-up or Opsec on the TV presentation. The performance of one unit that got hit so badly and filmed for Hamas propganda was really not representative of IDF infantry. These soldiers were inexperienced and they should not have been put in that situation and place without additional units close by. Their orders were not adequate and I blame the commanders for the soldiers' lax behaviour.
DeleteAside from that we do not hear about the Special Ops activities for reasons of Opsec. Many are unreported until years afterwards. Still, it would be nice to hear a nice showy action, like the Hamas managed to carry out in Rafah this morning, in which they succeeded in snatching one soldier and carry him down a tunnel.
They are a lot better and determined than presented on TV and by the Israeli Generals interviewed lately.
In addition, Hamas is still manging tire rockets into Israeli territory, Air Force and Army nhotwithstanding.
It seems the Management of this war has a lot to be desired.
yep. management of all western militaries leaves alot to be desired. i think the peace and flowers crowd has become so strong that many of these people refuse to see the reality.
Deletethey will cut a muslim throat in a heartbeat. do they not think they would do the same to an Israeli or American?
i personally call the time we live in fantasy land. no one wants to face the reality of the threat that we face. what has me scared (and yes i actually mean scared) is that the war should be clean/the enemy will play fair attitude is creeping into the military....even my beloved Marine Corps.
Sol & tt you guys are spot on!!!
DeleteIsrael has taken unnecessary casualties for several reasons:
Rediculous rules of engagement.
Incompetence from the government & senior officers :
- how many times can your troops be fooled by the same tactics?
Why no flame throwers to clear tunnels & empty buildings before IDF enters?
Overconfidence:
Troops arriving for duty on Gaza border congregate in the open:
- no shelters, trenches sand bags etc.
Buckling under international pressure!!!
What to do:
1. Open the Sinai border with or without Egypt's consent & direct civilians into Sinai.
Whoever remains in Gaza responsible for their own demise in the intense carpet bombing
to follow.
2. Engage top lawyers in USA to sue the United Nations in the US Court System for war crimes
due the UN's complicity in storing Hamas rockets and allowing IEDs & booby traps on their
premises.
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DeleteSorry had to reedit comment, my mistake ...
DeleteArmchair strategists and chairborne warriors, stay frosty please, and stop blaberring utter non sense about places and theaters of operations you have no clue about !
Right now the situation is very tricky because Tsahal is caught between a rock and a hard place ... Intensify the operations in Gaza and risk expansion of conflict (and thus casualties). They trying to walk a tight rope where they get the job done in Gaza, taking the casualties they do, and avoiding the Middle East going up in flames, which would be definitely more costly in lives, including on our side. So stop second guessing what people with much more experience are trying to achieve. Also, it's not easy to fight when you always have to take into account the fall out on various fronts, including the Sate Department telling us all the time to 'ponder' our response.
Finally, regarding Tsahal Special Forces, their purpose is special operations, not infantry work in urban environment. Israel is a small country and we canno't "burn" precious military assets that take time to train and get operational. We can't afford to loose 30 Sayeret Matkal in a helicopter crash, like the SEALs did in Wardak province in 2011. Our guys are where they're supposed to be. Period.
if the war was going to escalate it would have by now. the West Bank is as quiet as a church mouse. additionally what do you mean we can afford to lose SEALs or any servicemember. trust me we can't.
Deletei don't get where you're coming from on this. the IDF is professional and i support them but they've clearly made some mistakes in this conflict. why are you defending them when its so obvious?
Believe me Solomon, this is the Middle East ... You never know exactly what's gonna happen and when. You may think that if this operation was to escalate, it would have by now, which is true in the current conditions. But change the rules of engagement drastically, use more air power (with all the risks that entails), go in with full force, and the whole picture changes. Never forget, this is a petrol station, and anybody cracking a match is liable to make it all go to Hell. There are many things that could happen to make the situation worse on other fronts, not just Gaza, and we have to ponder all this when we carrying out this operation.
DeleteI'm not taking any offence about your questionning the way the operations are conducted, think it's legitimate to wonder, but it's a whole lot more complicated when you take all the elements of the equation on board. I was taking issue with some simplistic advice that was being given by some posters, not with fair criticism, including about mistakes being made. But you've operated overseas, you know that shit is bound to happen, even in a place as small as Gaza. Maybe you over-estimate our advantage on certain levels ... Militarily, we can't lose, but they can inflict casualties onto us. Again, shit happens. In the aftermath, there's the lessons learnt or not question that you have to ask about, but not in the middle of an ongoing operation. We got outdated equipment, true, cost us lives, true as well, but there no zero casualty war, and even Namer can be destroyed, just as merkavas got destroyed in 2006 war against Hizbollah. It's a fact of war. Once this is over, there's gonna be a tactical debriefing that will go into very much detail about was went wrong or not. Most of it will be public. We can discuss things then.
Regarding the Special Forces, I'm just saying we don't have the same depth as you, even though it seems you have too many of them right now, so we canno't send them into a fight that is not compatible with their mission statement, because we might need them for more hairy stuff some place else.
Have to add one element regarding the errors made on the ground by IDF. Don't forget, Tsahal is not a fully professional army. It's basically a draft-army, so some units operating in or around Gaza are reservists, not an all volunteer force with personnel having a long operational experience ... So the potential for mistakes, including fatal ones, is bigger, no doubt.
DeleteI can't agree with Hecate's comment about the draft-army aspect of Tzahal. The four major infantry brigades (conscript) are still volunteer. They train hard. They should be up to the task. And the reserves have historically played major roles in winning battles in the IDF. They may be a little out of training and out of shape, but they bring experience and maturity to the field. Plus the bulk of reservists in Gaza are fellows who just finished their mandatory service in the last few years. Experience is a harsh, unforgiving teacher; an the IDF is learning some lessons along with all the operational success that they are presently showing.
DeleteWas trying to emphasize on difference with full professional force where almost everybody in combat units has 3 years or more of active duty (on average)
DeleteIf history remembers our civilisation at all it will recall how we fell because we put them before us.
ReplyDeleteIsrael has no attainable strategic goal with this operation and as such has allready lost!
ReplyDeleteIsrael has both a strategic and tactical goal....shut down the tunnels so that terrorists can't rampage thru their country kidnapping and killing their civilians. this started off as a rocket hunt but the tunnels have been shown to be more of a concern.
Deletewhat does that mean to the average Israeli civilian? it means that they're going to have to live with Hamas launching rockets into their country and no one giving a damn because the Western world is soft as a marshmallow....but at least they have something of a defense against that...tunnels? you have to play whack a mole and shut them down when you find them.
Depends what you call a strategic goal ... Is destroying the Hamas tunnel network, rocket factories and terrorism infrastructure a strategic or tactical goal ? And if it is just a tactical goal, does achieving this tactical goal have strategic implications, like for example does it have to potential to discredit Hamas among the Palestinians in Gaza who will witness that all Hamas has promised turns into dust ... I would say, yes, achieving such a tactical goal can potentially destroy Hamas' central position in the political landscape of Gaza, and thus have long term strategic implications ... So either way, there's is space for a strategic gain for Israel. Hamas on the other hand will not be in the position Hizbollah was in after 2006 war: they will pick up the pieces and will have to start from scratch. They're loosing a lot of support among their population. question is who will the Palestinians in Gaza turn to now, more moderate Fatah leaders, or more extreme Islamic Djihad fundamentalists ? That's the beauty of the Middle East, it's all so complicated ...
DeleteTo clear tunnels there is one weapon Israel has not used, but it would be very efficient : smoke or gas (not necessary the leathal kind, maybe like the Russians used in the theater hostage operation). I saw one instance on TV where the soldiers threw down smoke pot and used a large fan to drive smoke into the tunnel. They should use it more often. A little immagination....
DeleteRe strategic goals - it should be remembered that the current war started with Hamas kidnapping three boys which gave Israel the cause to go after Hamas assets in the West Bank. This forced Hamas Gaza to start heavy rocket fire on Israeli towns, which started the Air Force attacks 25 days ago. The ground war was started hesitantly by the Government and General Staff about a week later. Responding and NOT proacting. It was Hamas that called the tune all along. Israel mistakenly believing that by causing untold damage and causalties they could force Hamas to stop, but that did not happen. No strategy.
I hear on TV some comments that consider that Hamas WILL get many of its conditions in the negotiations - all without giving up its weapons and demilitarising the Gaza Strip.
A shitty little militant organisation getting its way against the most poerful country in the reagion. Is this an indication, like Solomon said, of what will follow and will happen to Western Civilisation? This is what ISIS is doing in Iraq?
Adrian - Israel has not lost. It will get stronger as a result of this little war. The lessons of the Secon Lebanon War have now been re-learned and actions will be taken. (Irond Dome and APS and lots of other stuff that were origiginating from that time.......).
Main Hamas players are in Qatar as is the cash to get them up and running once this is over so this is more or less a lesson in futility.
DeleteMain players in Qatar ? Right ... you obviously know your shit !
DeleteMr. T is partly correct. The main Hamas political players are in Qatar.
DeleteSome Hamas players are in Qatar ... That's not the same
DeleteIf there's anything the west should have learned by now, it's that you can't topple the leadership of a people by bombing them. That just unites your enemy's factions instead of dividing them.
ReplyDeleteEngland... Germany... Yugoslavia... Vietnam... Iraq... Afghanistan... Gaza... the list goes on and on. Full-on invasion and victory (Germany), or cloak and dagger political interference (Ukraine) are the only real options for bringing a leader down.