via The Aviationist.
This is different though.
Read the whole thing and while (in my opinion) he breaks down into the twisted double speak of conspiracy theorist in his post, the outlines are clear.
There is alot more to this story than we're being told and I am getting the strong suspicion that we're being spun. I'm not saying that this isn't a tragedy of enormous proportions....but I am saying that there is a reason why those missiles were launched.
Iranian defense expert Babak Taghvaee believes the mistake was caused by the fact the Malaysian Boeing 777 was escorted over eastern Ukraine. Taghvaee is always very well informed and an extremely reliable source. Therefore, after he provided some details about this activity of the Ukrainian Air Force on ACIG forum thread about the war in Ukraine, we contacted him for some more insight.I usually don't post from the Aviationist website. Too many "watch this breathtaking"..or "unbelievable" ... or "intense" posts of vids that honestly irk the hell outta me.
This is different though.
Read the whole thing and while (in my opinion) he breaks down into the twisted double speak of conspiracy theorist in his post, the outlines are clear.
There is alot more to this story than we're being told and I am getting the strong suspicion that we're being spun. I'm not saying that this isn't a tragedy of enormous proportions....but I am saying that there is a reason why those missiles were launched.
OK then, I'll be the first one to give you my five cents worth of wisdom (although Five cents would be probably an overstatement).
ReplyDeleteFirst of all Babak Taghvaee might be an expert on Iranian aircraft, especially during the the 1980s or earlier, but he certainly isn't a specialist on Eastern European or Soviet aircraft or anti-aircaft technology. Not saying he's full of it, just dampen the mood a little as to his attempt at an explanation.
Second, having civilian airliners escorted by fighter planes because a russian aircraft shot down a ukrainian jet ealier on ... weird logic. Most companies have just diverted their flights in order to avoid flying over the civil war zone in Eastern Ukraine. Makes more sense and definitely the safer option.
Third, Taghvaee might be onto something when he says there were two Ukies SU-27s "escorting" the plane ... question is, did they identify the malaysian airliner as such, or maybe potentially as a threat, in which case, you suddenly face the hypthosis of an AAM being fired at the Boeing, a theory which - right now - seems just as likely or even more likely than a pro-russian Buk missile, whose flight path could have been seen and most probably taken on cam by lots of people in the area.
We'll see ...
An alternate possibility has been suggested... That Ukrainian jets have been using commercial airliners as cover when conducting ops in separatist airspace. Where the separatists don't have aircraft, but do have SAMs. So Kiev 'escorts’ these airliners so that they (the warplanes) won't be shot at, risking an incident.
DeleteWhich would dovetail with information coming out that the shot-down airliner was diverted 200 miles north from it's previously planned course.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-17/was-flight-mh-17-diverted-over-restricted-airspace
Why? As bait? Because an op’s mission parameters required it as a human shield? Ukraine has to explain that one, because it was their air traffic controllers that set the plane’s course.
Keep this possibility in mind along with the others as the news unfolds. Who’s specific missile system shot down the aircraft may not be as important in the grand scheme of things as why it was in that location in the first place.
Just read the comments of previous post regarding the shooting down of Malaysian airliner ... What a load of bollocks mostly ! some people do have shit for brains, sorry to say but sadly true ;-) ... Manpad shooting down an airliner flying at 33 000 feet ? airliner mistaken for transport aircraft (allegedly shot down days earlier) ? Give me a f*ing break !
ReplyDeleteBUK AA missile system in Seps hands, really ? Why not use them to (try to) shoot down Ukies fighter jets then, would be easier targets considering flight altitude and speed when they fire their rockets.
And even if the Seps, had a Buk system, suffice to say that considering point of impact [and aerodynamics equation X=(V1^2-V0^2)/2a, for those in the know], the plane would not have crashed where it did ... which brings us back to Babak Taghvaee's theory about two Ukies fighter jets in the vincinity of the airliner ...
Anyway, as they said in that 1990s series: "the truth is out there" ... and it definitely is !
Russians negate this theory, they try to prove that in the vicinity of airliner was single Su-25. They with maniacal persistence call it a fighter and that he may use infrared R-60 missile to shoot it down. In that case the black boxes can have an answer to that. R-60 is light missile with small warhead, it would attack one of engine as it would seek the largest heat source. Hit would not disintegrate plane and the pilot would have time to react, not do anything to save plane but have time to verbal comment this.
ReplyDeletePossession of Seps SA-11 is unquestionable, too many pictures made by ordinary people and vid's that show it in there hands. We live in times that civis with smartphone is better intelligence information source then any agent.
>not do anything to save plane
DeleteActually R-60 hit leaves B-777 crew with quite enough room for opportunity.
Impossible to be sure, ofc, but it's very possible to attempt something.
I don't know, it would probably tear apart one of engine... I don't think that B777 is able to fly with one engine and we must also think about fire that would spread towards fuel tanks.
Delete> I don't think that B777 is able to fly with one engine
DeleteAny modern twin engined passenger plane is able to do it - not only in level flight, but(it's just requirements) even at take off.
B777 is certainly capable of flying on one engine. But a radar guided missile does not target engines per se - it targets the reflected radar centroid of the target. Depending on the metrics of the engagement, the missile detonates within a certain radius of the target. An IR missile targets heat sources: engines, leading edges heated by friction, etc., and usually tracks to a direct impact with the target.
DeleteBtw: I just notice how just a big fail was that Russian "presentation"... it rather embarrassing.
ReplyDeleteThey say that Su-25 climb to the level of Malaysia Air... that is 9500-10500m. The problem is that Su-25 max level is 7000m without weapons and only 5000m with weapons. Max speed is 950km/h without weapon... with them probably 900km/h or less. The speed of airliner was 900-920 km/h.
I must admit, that if Russians don't know statistic of plane they use... it's rather scary.
Nothing wrong with your data, only the article Solomon was referring to is about SU-27, which is a whole different story to SU-25 in terms of max. flight altitude.
DeleteIn addition, as far as I know (but again I'm Infantry, not Air force), the SU-25 can be fitted with a R-73E AAM, with target locking angle of 60 degrees. So even with full ordnance payload, it could in theory deliver a weapon system towards aircraft flying at 33 000 feet (if at a distance of at least 2.5 clicks), which is no issue for R-73 considering range of 30-40 km.
So your comment is a non starter as far as I'm concerned.
I'm referring to Russian presentation that was put yesterday that they detect an Su-25. And he can only use R-60 missile, even with that he would be unable to chase down flying B777. Also, what is interesting the "Ukrainian" plane in Russian presentation look's like F-111 Aardvark. They say also that they not only detect Su-25 but also operating Ukrainian Buk missile system.
DeleteAnd at the end... with rather calm and silent voice, they admit that they don't detect ANY missile launch.
Shas, you better get your facts right. Again, I'm no air force geek and not interested in getting into discussions about wing span or so, but i suggest you counter check your statements before making a fool of yourself.
DeleteThe ukrainian air force has versions of SU-25 that are perfectly capable of carrying an R-73 AAM (http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su25k/arms/). First time in my life i'm giving lessons in Soviet Aircraft Technology ... cheers to that !
Hecate and did you notice that Sukhoi state in your link that Su-25 can use ONLY R-73? I maybe mistaken with use of R-66 but in that case... Sukhoi denied another "proof" of Russian generals because they sayid that he used R-66.
DeleteSomething interesting:
ReplyDeleteAviation week: "Learn More About Sbirs and DSP -- Satellites Attributed with Seeing the MH17 Shootdown"
http://aviationweek.com/blog/learn-more-about-sbirs-and-dsp-satellites-attributed-seeing-mh17-shootdown?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20140721_AW-05_963&YM_RID=%27email%27&YM_MID=%27mmid%27&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_7
Iranian aviation expert? Enough said.
ReplyDeleteEach side has its mouthpieces.
Deletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtJKbFhIEAAhCxG.jpg:large shrapnel
ReplyDeletehttps://pp.vk.me/c620024/v620024026/ed75/_M4Onr5Jqck.jpg - piece of pilot's cabin from above photo with a hole in it visually mounted on intact B777
Mis ID is rampant, Reuters ran a picture on Fox on line news of a blue camo SU-35 and ID'ed it as the ones shot down this morning by the Missile-men. The headline read, Two SU-25 shot down over Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteThey change the photo when someone noticed the mistake.