via zik.com
July 15, 34 tanks, 34 self-propelled artillery guns and 2 armored personnel carriers moved from Luhansk to Donetsk. Their crews do not hide they are Russians, LB.ua reports, citing an eyewitness report.I have no idea as to whether these are Russians or rebels.
“I saw two columns of armor passing through my native Perevalsk. The asphalt road was destroyed. They all refuel at petrol stations, saying they are Russians.
The armor with no identification marks penetrated Ukraine through the fields,” the eyewitness says.
Ukraine government believes Russia has started to escalate the war, sending more and more weapons through the border.
According to presidential administration deputy head Valery Chaly, the conflict looks more and more as a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What I do wonder about is if we're seeing the first truly hybrid war.
We're seeing rebels that can match a modern army on the battlefield, the inclusion of civilian fighters on both sides, a population caught in the middle and advanced weaponry used by all (note the Iraqi Army battle against ISIS also meets the definition of hybrid war too).
The only thing that might be missing is religious radicalism and a horde of refugees flooding into neighboring countries.
I'm more convinced than ever.
The Israeli-Hamas fight is small potatoes. The fight that will change the world as we know it is happening in Europe and no one is paying attention.
Sidenote- The definition of hybrid warfare (as I use it) via Wikipedia.
United States Marine Corps Lt. Col. Bill Nemeth’s defined hybrid warfare as “the contemporary form of guerrilla warfare” that “employs both modern technology and modern mobilization methods.”[4]
Nathan Freier of the Center for Strategic and International Studies was one of key people that originally defined hybrid warfare involving four threats: (1) traditional; (2) irregular; (3) catastrophic terrorism; and (4) disruptive, which exploit technology to counteract military superiority.[4]
I think that at this moment even the Russian Decision makers dont know how much of Ukraine they want to "Capture" and what price are they willing to pay to capture it. No one is aware of the "Limits" here and are trying to take as much as they can.
ReplyDeleteI want to say that Ukraine will survive as a country but how much of a country will they have is something yet to be seen. Even the Frontline ussians must be passing on messages to top brass with keywords like Fragile and Evolving in the same sentence.
I seriuslly doubt there any Russian active duty soldiers involved in Ukraine conflict now(locals are flying the Russian flags, that doesn't make them russian military). For Russia this east Ukraine conflict is no winners game they are trying to avoid getting involved ,but i reckon that due to recent shelling that killed people on Russian side of the border some ATGMs and MANPADs will come into Donetsk militia hands shortly.
ReplyDeleteAs for armor remember rebels sized an army depo with 100+ of MBTs and Armored vehicles, and unlike western armor that requires a proper repair shop to get running,many of these can be up and running with days work , we are seeing people starting up tanks that lay dormant for 50+ years in form of monuments so why would you think getting tanks that have been in storage for decade would be a problem ,that is the beauty of soviet gear it was designed for low tech armies and is always ready for the fight.
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ReplyDeleteAccording to Kiev they had all the borders secured so it couldn't possible be the Russians. :P Anyway, besids some volunteers coming from Russia to join the Seps. Which the seps never denied. But no arms from Russia or active soldiers. Like I said solomon Kiev is full of shit. Anyway, remember when i said the sep's were luring kiev's army into a trap ? Well Kiev's army has suffered a huge loses with raids and MLRS and Arty attack by the seps.and is in majory shit now.
ReplyDeleteAnd currently
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHfiUrcY44Y&feature=youtu.be
~From Espresso.tv, pro-government/Kiev channel) from a unit that got incircled.. The info is basically the same - heavy losses, 40 vehicles got annihilated and just a few survived no water, no reinforcements, Other brigades retreated and they are the ones who are left. They are surrounded.~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1xdTMADOjA&app=desktop
~And another group. Same thing. Most armour and light skin vehicles destroyed and "basicly we are fucked" The commander was by his own word told to stand ground.~
More reports but no confirmation of other encirclements by seps against kievs forces.
As far as the units that retreated most of them suffered heavy loses.
One example from Ukr media itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=atqE3OV9yJU#t=0
~240 soldiers airmobile brigade (Airborne), only 40 left capable of holding their rifles.~
Multiple Ukrainian outlets are starting to stop spewing kievs crap and are finally reporting the truth. So we'll finally know soon just how many soldiers kiev lost overal so far.
BTW aparantly ukrainian forces to the south are moving west to secure their flank and have been counter attacked.
This really sound like it's going to be a major defeat for the Kiev Junta.
Also mothers at recruitment office and demanding their sons to be rescued from encirclements.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWi0Daf228M#t=22
Also the rebels saying more and more Ukrainians are slipping to through kievs thugs that are are intimidating and enforcing most of Ukraine. Also good amount of Ukrainian army soldiers want to defeact and or drop their guns and go home(good amount already done so) but others are reluctent.as they are afraid that their families and their lives will be turned to hell by "friendship crews" near them.
Another thing people overlook is manpower and skill sets needed for such warfare ,most men in central and eastern europe served in the military( conscript armies) and are generally very well educated ,most eastern block countries even have high schools and universitys that teach defense studies outside the military (i am a scholar of such university ,which in its inception was meant to provide cadre for leading total war for in case national army would be defeated or would retreat away from mayor cities ) so finding people that can handle ATGMs ,MANPADs or tanks is not that difficult.
ReplyDeleteSo you will rarely see complete idiots at work like you do in the middle eastern conflicts, that is why these conflicts are way more technical and intensive.
Irony the 30+ year olds still served regulary ,40+ year olds served twice as long ,while new generation like the teenagers Kiev is sending on the front now didn't even serve as the Military downsized and wanted to go professional.So many units like the new National guard have couple of months training at best a 30 day course at worst.
DeleteIndeed. Seps also have extremly decorated men that have seen combat in charge among their ranks. Kiev's forces however. Not so much.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunatly end of the day even if the seps menage to get to Kiev(unlikely) (The junta won't survive this year though) and hang the pigs their on top of lamp posts along with the nazi's and and fucking maidennuts. Ukrainian will be still fucked. Russia doesn't want it because it'll be a dead albatros around it's neck. EU won't want it either.
I am confused, is the eastern part of ukraine not russian, is that not largely the current source of contention? Yet at the same time that they say these people are not 'ukranian', they also say they want 'their land back!'. I wonder if it was ever 'their land', if any of their ancestors ever lived on 'that land'.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if that during the partinioning of the USSR, the border was put in the wrong place? Nevertheless in light of the attitudes of some (I mean nearly all) of the administration, and of a very large portion of the public of ukraine, it is entirely undertandable why these people wish to no longer remain associated with ukraine and under the juristiction of that government.
Now you are fantasizing ,if you have a large proportion of hispanics in Texas that doesn't mean its Mexican land at least not from the last Mexican American war .
ReplyDeleteBorders mirror former Soviet republic lines and are not relevant to ethnical makeup.
Ethnic Russians (these are ukrainian nationals)form the large part of population in Donetsk and Lugansk region ,Crimea was actually Russian and only transfered to Ukraine on some backroom deal in 1954
Well really that is irrelevant, especially considering that america is becoming a mexican country very fast, and there is really no point in denying it, it is happening, whether or not you agree with it, which I most assuredly do not. Infact the last thing the world needs is two mexicos, although maybe we would be slightly better off without some the USAs foreign policy, so I guess its not all bad.
ReplyDeleteBut ah regarding ukraine, it is worth questioning whether the line of demarcation was placed at the wrong point during the division of the USSR, prior to the peace treaty that russia signed during WW1 there was no such thing, nor was there ever, as the nation of 'ukraine', infact before then it was the Zaporizhian Sich and that was largely settled by Russian and also Polish peasants. Shortly after it was integrated into the Russian Empire, one must assume that the population, is in reality, after so many years of occupation, and considering its founding population, russian in terms of blood, but not necessarily ethnicity. Nethertheless they are being extremely stupid about the whole affair, after all the entire Ukraine is russian! Certainly there is no point in denying, at least the parts of ukraine that feel they are russian, from returning to russia?
High tech, well armed and armored mercenary units. Anyone ever read any of Drakes books?
ReplyDeleteForlorn hope, Hammer's Slammers or the Dorsai novels?
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Two Mexico's? There are several Mexico's, North, South, east and West, Indio's those who are more European and the drug cartels.
Mexico is not as united a front as we think.
The Acapulco is different than the Tapatios.
There is racism inside Mexico between Indio and non Indio.
The Drug Cartels can use their financial resources to fund a High Tech, well armed and Armored force with Aviation assets and use it to attack and take parts of Texas, New Mexico California and Arizona, forcing ethnic cleansing and causing mass disruption along the entire border. They can also bombard the US as the Palistinian's do the Israeli's creating the same problems for the US as Israel has, demanding right of return and throwing out the occupation of Mexican land by the Texan's.
The argument of saving the children, rescuing Mexican citizens as the NAZI did in Poland will reverberate and be a cause for war, not a nation state against nation state war but a low grade hi tech guerrilla war such as Ukraine and Palestine.
Hybrid war is right, not quite war as we know it nor even police action as it has become, war of the well armed gangs and terrorist with mercenary troops financed by the drug cartels and the racial jihad.
Things are gonna go to shit quick and our Government is caught between fighting and surrender, with half wishing for surrender and sublimation the other half for accommodation but none for fighting back, yet.
After all who wishes for a Gaza on our borders shooting hundreds of rockets at us every day while we spend our fortunes with an American Iron dome defense.
Times sho' do be interesting!
hybrid war -- similar in Iraq, Syria, Libya and other places like Nigeria.
ReplyDeleteHybrid war, very interesting. Wonder how much something like the Bosnian War would meet the definition.
ReplyDelete