Thanks for the link Joe!
via Vox
On a sidenote, I wonder exactly how valuable NATO membership really is. The organization is at best a quasi-political one that masquerades as a military grouping. Its shelf life has expired long ago and what would impress me more is individual mutual aid pacts between countries. For example an agreement by the Brits to defend Poland, Estonia and Romania instead of NATO membership would seem to carry more weight, less complications and be more effective than the nonsense we have now.
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| photo via Vox |
via Vox
This is a photograph of an AN-27 Russian military transport aircraft. Which wouldn't be so extraordinary, except that the air force of Finland says they took the photo while the Russian plane was in Finnish airspace. Even that wouldn't necessarily be so extraordinary, except the Finns say it was "the third event of its kind within a one-week period." And even that you might write off as just one of these things, except that Russia also invaded Ukraine this week so it's kind of hard to see it all as a big coincidence.I personally don't see this as a big deal, but of course I could easily be wrong. Stuff is heating up in Europe and the Russians would be a fool to not keep an eye on all of its neighbors---as they're keeping an eye on Russia.
On a sidenote, I wonder exactly how valuable NATO membership really is. The organization is at best a quasi-political one that masquerades as a military grouping. Its shelf life has expired long ago and what would impress me more is individual mutual aid pacts between countries. For example an agreement by the Brits to defend Poland, Estonia and Romania instead of NATO membership would seem to carry more weight, less complications and be more effective than the nonsense we have now.
"I wonder exactly how valuable NATO membership really is."
ReplyDeleteI'm arguing with Sven at D&F at the moment over just that matter
Few, if any, NATO members could actually fight a war in the eastern reaches of NATO area.
The UK occupies the same bases it occupied in the fifties, despite the front line moving 1200km east.
We also have fewer transport assets than we had then.
I couldnt speculate how many tracked vehicles of 1st armoured would make the journey to Estonia, under their own power, without breaking down. Let alone arriving quickly enough, in fighting condition and fighting order to actually make a difference.
I doubt the Poles would get too cozy after signing a defense pact with anyone except, maybe the US. Something about France and Britain's actions, or lack thereof in 1939...
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ReplyDelete(removed for correction)
ReplyDeletei have serious doubts that the UK will even answer a request for intel (by Romania) even....
first, the british people would opose that, no doubt again, the anti-romanian (and anti-polish before us) russian propaganda is at home in the UK...that matters alot.
the "interesting" thing is that the bulgarians don't get the same shit, even if we're on the same boat....
There was an agreement that there would be no permanent basing of NATO member forces in Poland, the Baltics, etc. Rotating in and out is okay though.
ReplyDeleteThe Baltics are basically doomed in any sort of action. What military each has is tiny and couldn't stop a simple lunge across the border by Russia. Putin could do it, seize the island of Gotland, and then just say "What are you going to do about it?".
@Sea of Lion
Deletesome say, it was just a verbal agreement, not signed papers, even signed papers don't worth much tho
the russians can invade a country , have kaliningrad, transnistria and crimeea and others can't even put a base ? unfortunately this rhetoric is seen in some western capitals, "let's not upset them" but they can spit us in the face whenever they wish
M.C.
DeleteThat's Ukraine though. I don't think they'd dare mess with the Baltics or Poland.
That's a little idiotic... the Poland and Baltic States are members of NATO... every military base there is BASE of NATO. Let's not build new bases...use the already existing ones. And screen themselves with some deal from the 90's?! The situation had change... Russia just put a large peninsula with large number of bases when they annexed Crimea under own command... but noooo NATO can't put some of them in own members territory.
DeleteRussia don't give a single fuck about any international deals, why NATO should respect the outdated deals when Russia don't give a fuck about them? Appeasement politics to the bone right?
TheRequimen
ReplyDeleteIts not a matter of will (for the UK) but capability.
The UK cannot decisively act in Poland without a lot of support.
We just cant.
MC
That we dont like your petty criminals and beggars turning up here doesnt mean we dont like you at home, or wouldnt like you to smack Russia.
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DeleteThe problem is not the fact that the "press" points those things out but i would be thankful if they will learn the differences between romanians and OTHERS coming from Romania...
DeleteThe ones coming from Romania are temporary, the other ones (not romanians nor FROM Romania) that occupied London are not.
The problems are a lot of gypsies from romania and bulgaria.
ReplyDeleteThe EU is doing nothing in investing for education of this people.
Bulgaria and Romania are simply to poor and corrupt to invest in the edication and socialosations of gypsies.
You miss one solid point Storm Shadow, Romani or as you call them in more common way Gypsies don't want to assimilate with other nations. They live in close communities with own tradition and culture and any type of socialization or change of that state meet strong resistance from them. You can take Great Britain, France, Germany, Poland... almost every country where Romani communities exist and you will see the same patter. Romani stay with Romani...
DeleteI will try to answer Sol' with point of view originating in Central and Eastern Europe. What international guarantees are worth, NATO, EU, defense pacts.
ReplyDeleteAs always they are worth exactly the same value as the paper they were write on. The TrT and TheRequimen are right about how people feel about that. Let me put for you some history lesson, maybe there will be some new information in it that you never know.
In 30's after NSDAP grab the power in Germany the relation between Poland and the Third Reich were excellent, diplomatic and cultural relations were even better then with Fascist Italy. Adolph Hitler was not acolyte of Bismarck who frankly speaking hate Poles to the bottom of his heart. He was Austrian, he don't share that hatred with many of old "Prussian guard", what was better he was great admirer of Marshal Piłsudski and Poles as battle hardened soldiers and enemy's of Bolsheviks. Many times he emphasize that joining the Germany discipline and engineering knowledge with Poles warrior spirit he would rule the world. The same were the opinion of his inner circle, as they see great partners in Poland and Yugoslavia as comrades in Europe. Herman Goering many times visit Poland where he hunt in large Polish primeval forest's. In world Poland was seen as natural ally of Third Reich, the most sure member of Anti-Comintern Pact. Most battle plans on the east assume cooperation of both nations against Soviets, and Soviets were sure that both nations will stand before them.
But that situation change in late 30'
Great Britain and France understand that war is coming, Appeasement politics fails on all fronts, the infamous Neville Chamberlain was removed from power. But for both "Empires" situation was tragic, Great Britain almost don't posses
land forces, air force was still outdated and not an rival for Luftwaffe. In 38 they only had a handful of not that good Hurricane and not a single Spitfire. The main goal of British administration was to remove from them attack as long as they can. The Britain need to prepare for incoming storm. So they start to act.
France and GB all the time try to create some kind of military bloc against Reich, ale the time they pressure Poland to get a military agreement with Soviet Union. And that was absolutely impossible. Even with extremely "good" work of NKVD in Poland they were still just... NO. That irritate France and couple of time they show that.
Now, the Foreign Minister of Poland, Józef Beck was an petty, vindictive and incompetent man with huge self esteem. He is one of main reason of the War. That man was deeply offended by French and... he just ignore them. Now Brits understand how diplomacy works and when they invite Beck to London they roll out a long red carpet before him and meet him with exaggerated pomp. Now they know that Beck will do anything for them because he feel important.
Brits play va banque... they propose Beck something that was gigantic provocation, something that every other Minister would reject without second though. The mutual defense pact against Germany. And the damned Beck sigh it with smile...this one thing give an death sentence for Poland. When information get to Poland, Walery Sławek triple prime minister of Poland... shoot himself, he just can't bear the knowledge that Beck sigh the death sentence for his country.
Now both France and Great Britain did not have the intention to help Poland, they even openly speak about that. The reason is simple, they were not ready for War. They did not have the force or will to enter it. So they done the most logic in realpolitik thing... they throw before predator and victim, push in front of hungry wolf nothing suspecting sheep just to buy time for them.
When Canaris came to Hitler and give him information about defense pact... Adolph get furious, he scream, hit walls, floor... just get nut's. He feel betray, he did everything to be friend of Poland, he put them in his mysterious plan as main block and now Beck and every Pole betray him. In that single moment the switch in Hitler head jump from "Great friend of Poland" to "Extermination".
DeleteBut that's not end... Great Britain and France had not been sure that this will be enough. So they came to the Satan himself, to Iosif Wissarionowicz Stalin. The puppet master who act from backstage and he pull the string in every country to prepare Europe for new War, to send a Red banner once again in direction of Atlantic. Same day the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact was signed... the joint Great Britain & France mission was in next building and speak with Kliment Yefremovich Voroshilov about pact against Germany. Stalin ignore them, he send an "useful halfwit" as Voroshilov was called to check on what concession they will go. Voroshilov demand that both "empires" will not object when they put bases in Baltic States... they agreed. Invade Finland and Romania... they agreed. Poland... well in this moment both admiral Reginald Drax and general Joseph Doumenc hesitate. They telegraph to both capitals and receive answer... Great Britain and France agree that when Soviet Union will invade Poland they will not intervene.
Before any document had been sigh they were worthless. Great Britain and France exactly know that they will do nothing, that this is death pact and they send Poland to die. They know it and do everything to make this happen. There is a lot... a loooooot of fault on Polish side also. There is and efficient work of NKVD in Poland in France in every country in Europe that also play major part in start of war. As always every tragedy or victory have many fathers...
Of course there is Yalta the final act of great betray.
Maybe I give you a boring lecture, but it's important that this wound... is still fresh in Poles or Baltic States. And when you ask common people on the street if they believe that someone will help us, they in most cases say "No... because the 39'"
I will quote a short poem.
And then - as in the song
Glow and explosions
Painted boys, Sleepless commanders
Backpacks full of disasters, red fields of glory
And comforting knowing that we are - alone...
It should be noted that they had comms with the AC and it ignored orders to get back on the right side.
ReplyDeleteFiAF has increased the number of planes that can be scrambled on short notice and distributed them on more airports.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/finnish_air_force_moves_hardware_to_helsinki-vantaa_airport_public_reports_hornet_sightings/7442628
http://yle.fi/uutiset/finland_steps_up_air_readiness_following_airspace_incursions/7441804
I think the last time we did this was 11.09.2001.
Also Russian subs are more active than usual and one was intercepted not too long ago by a Hamina class missile boat.
While the FDF has not been idle since the start of the conflict not too far away, it however did come at a bad time after cuts and we are currently in a transition period moving units and introducing a new doctrine.
Bear is testing you... or just try to piss you off?
DeleteWho knows? Could be a message and/or testing, a attempt to intimidate us or just a diversion.
DeleteWell it's work in other way, there is some info that Finland and Sweden try to find some way to close ties with NATO. Look's like both nations gov. don't like what Bear is doing.
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