Thanks Dima for the link!
via RU.OXA.AZ
All it will take is one global shock (made easier due to the trade system setup) and this entire tinderbox will go up in flames.
I'm moving up my prediction. I think we're going to see a major regional war in 1 to 5 years (versus my previous 5-10) unless something drastic happens to change current conditions.
UPDATE: Thanks to Requiem for this news...via ZeroHedge.
We will see heavy fighting in Iraq. Its almost a given....what I didn't see happening is that the Kurds would lose ground to these thugs.
Change is chaos. We're seeing change in the world so why are we surprised that its chaotic?
via RU.OXA.AZ
URGENT: Azerbaijan began shelling the positions of Armenians of rocket launchersWe're looking at the most global instability I've ever seen in my lifetime. The world is literally spinning out of control.
Enemy carries heavy losses.
The Azerbaijani army is shooting at Armenian fighting positions of small arms and artillery: grenade launchers, mortars, anti-aircraft installations, thermobaric grenades.
As the Oxu.Az citing Haqqin.Az , stated in an emergency statement from the Ministry of Defense.
According to the enemy suffers great losses.
According to the statement, in recent days the situation on the contact line of Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan escalated dramatically. Azerbaijani armed forces do not stop trying to penetrate the Armenian positions.
Also frequent shelling of border settlements. Day by day the number of losses of the parties.
Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia calls on Azerbaijan to stabilize the situation.
All it will take is one global shock (made easier due to the trade system setup) and this entire tinderbox will go up in flames.
I'm moving up my prediction. I think we're going to see a major regional war in 1 to 5 years (versus my previous 5-10) unless something drastic happens to change current conditions.
UPDATE: Thanks to Requiem for this news...via ZeroHedge.
With the world's attention focused on the ongoing death and destruction in Gaza most have forgotten that just two months ago a vicious Al-Qaeda spinoff, after taking over the north of Iraq and a third of Syria's territory including its oil production facilities, proclaimed the creation of an Islamic State caliphate a few hundred kilometers north of Baghdad. The reason why the ISIS story fell off the front pages is that while the jihadists were consolidating their power in the caliphate region, it was believed that they have no chance of advancing onto Baghdad and the energy-rich Iraq regions south of Baghdad (and thus have little impact on the price of Brent). And yet there was one major "weakest link" - recall that a month ago we reported that "Baghdad May Lose Its Drinking Water As ISIS Approaches Dam", an outcome which would put Iraq's capital, and its 8 million residents, at the mercy of ISIS.The part of this story that makes me say what the fuck is that the Kurds lost three towns and an oilfield.
According to Al Arabia it is this "weakest link" that is now in play after ISIS took over Iraq's biggest dam unopposed by Kurdish fighters, who also lost three towns and an oilfield on Sunday to the Sunni militant group, witnesses said cited by Reuters.
We will see heavy fighting in Iraq. Its almost a given....what I didn't see happening is that the Kurds would lose ground to these thugs.
Change is chaos. We're seeing change in the world so why are we surprised that its chaotic?
Right between Russia and Iran, and also next to Georgia. Russia's war buddy from '08. How convenient.
ReplyDeleteMap of the pipelines through Azerbaijan:
Deletehttp://www.azembassy.org.tr/?options=content&id=81
Story of previous conflict with a map (scroll down) of the disputed area. Which is just south of the pipelines.
http://www.rferl.org/content/Azerbaijan_Claims_Five_Killed_In_Clash_On_NagornoKarabakh_Border_/2145292.html
Story on current hostilities. Russia has a military base in Armenia, and Armenian-Russian relations are good. Azerbaijan, unsurprisingly, has close ties with the US and Europe.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-battles-armenian-separatists-in-disputed-enclave-1.1886527
Not clear who started it, but since the pipelines run into Turkey (supplier of Syrian rebels with US acquired arms), I'm going to guess this is Russia's move to put pressure on the West.
Call me a paranoid... but "someone" is running around Russia borders and restarting or start new conflicts. Some of the frozen ones are... unfroze.
DeleteHear about this Solomon? ISIS captured a dam. The biggest one in Iraq. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-03/isis-captures-iraqs-biggest-dam-baghdad-water-supply-jeopardy
ReplyDeleteThis is bad.
Regarding the Kurds - the area captured was one of the disputed regions that the Peshmerga seized after the central government's collapse. They didn't have that many troops there, and they were poorly supplied. It's very much on the fringe of Kurdish territory. No-one disputes the ability of the Kurds to hold onto its core regions, but far-flung, newly annexed areas are another matter - their supply lines in the west have been badly strained after several key bridges were destroyed or captured, and ISIS is currently flush with cash and heavy weapons.
ReplyDeleteThe Kurds are in it for the Kurds.
ReplyDeleteAnyone expecting the peshmerga to absorb horrific losses to keep Baghdad fed an watered misunderstands their purpose.
If someone had backed them, advisors and a bucket load of arms, they might have stayed.
But their goal is to protect Kurdistan, first second and third priority.
nobody said a thing about the Kurds defending the dam. what we did talk about is the Kurds defending Kurdish town and failing.
Deletewhy do people always read into and head off on tangents?
I am surprised by the effectivenes of the ISIS troops and the swift offensive, which has unbalanced all opponents.
ReplyDeleteI did not expect the Kurds to fold that easily and loose ground so quickly. I considered them to be the only real effective military organisation. However, ISIS has a lot of ex-Republican Guard members, who were the best Sadam Hussein had in Iraq.
The Kurds also don't have air reconnaissance or heavy weapons and armor, so it would not be easy for them to respond effectively.
In a few days vice news will release the "Islamic state" a short documentary about ISIS.
ReplyDeleteAbout ISIS... They just keep getting city after city, so... How long gonna take to they seize control on the entire middle(at least 65%)?
If they continue like this, Iraq will be theirs by the end of this year... Syria is holding tight at the moment, but we will have to see for how long.
Delete3 years perhaps?
DeleteI don't know... But, if they become a real country perhaps will be more easy to know who supports then and who not.