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| Are we going to give the Ukrainians MRAPs? |
The Pentagon is rushing new aid — including armored vehicles and increased training — to bolster Ukrainian forces fighting Russian-backed separatists, the Defense Department announced Friday.What type of armored vehicles are we providing---APCs, Cargo and Patrol vehicles can theoretically cover everything from Uparmored Humvees to Strykers? They talk about patrol boats but this is a pure land campaign...why did they include patrol boats?
The gear includes armored personnel carriers, cargo and patrol vehicles, binoculars, night vision goggles and small patrol boats, said Eileen Lainez, a Pentagon spokeswoman. The equipment is valued at $8 million and follows a similar $7 million package of equipment shipped in April.
Earlier on Friday, the Pentagon also announced a proposed $19 million aid package to help train Ukraine's National Guard forces. The money will help train four companies of soldiers and a headquarters element, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby said. The proposal requires congressional approval and would begin in 2015. Trainers would come from U.S. forces in Europe or the California National Guard, which has partnered with Ukrainian troops in the past.
I mean no insult to the Ukrainian forces but they appear to be fighting a foe that is more motivated and with the added benefit of having Russian "advisers" fighting alongside them.
I don't think they can win this on the battlefield. Ukraine will be sectioned off....its inevitable.
they want do use patrol boat bought for afghanistan, which were never delivered due to ???.
ReplyDeleteThey included patrol boats because they lost over half their navy when Russia invaded Crimea.
ReplyDeleteI strongly disagree with your assessment that they can't win on the battlefield, considering that by all accounts the Ukrainians have been making steady and significant territorial gains against pro-Russian separatists over the last couple of weeks. Right now the ONLY thing that prevents outright Ukrainian victory is an overt Russian invasion.
but it doesn't add up in my mind. consider the new sanctions. if the Ukrainians were actually on the verge of victory then why take the chance to further muddy the relations between the US and Russia. additionally we know how reluctant the EU has been to impose sanctions on Russia. then think about the talk about massive losses in armor that the Kiev govt supposedly suffered (according to at least one news report).
Deletethen add in this aid package.
it just seems that this thing is not going well.....
Otan controlled almost all afghanistan before they retake all the country...
DeleteThe aide package doesn't really surprise me since I expect Western governments, to include the U.S, will be far more willing to materially back the Ukrainian government given the Russian involvement in the MH-17 shoot down.
DeleteThe source of the "massive armor loss" was from the unelected Russian-installed "leader" of the Donetsk People's Republic. If he is the only one reporting that amount of armor loss then it is a completely untrustworthy source. That is the equivalent of believing Saddam Hussein's claims of massive losses being inflicted on U.S troops during Persian Gulf I and II.
While the Ukrainians are certainly suffering combat losses, so are the pro-Russians, and it is the later who continues to cede territory. The Ukrainians have really taken the gloves off against the separatists, and use heavy artillery barrages and even SS-21 launches to overwhelm pro-Russian positions. While the Russians might be successful in sneaking armor and artillery into Ukraine, it's pretty hard to do so covertly in sufficient numbers to match the massive firepower being employed by Ukraine.
The below videos are good representations of how much fire support Ukraine has committed to this conflict.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=64c_1403308238
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWx0g4hq5xQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQ0p7mkCCA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC3AEPvlMDk
Again, logically, if Kiev is on the verge of a complete victory, why is the military support being rushed in? It's not like $15M in US hardware is going to do much to stop a full Russian invasion, or take back Crimea. That's barely enough to buy 1.5 Abrams tanks, or a dozen TOW missiles.
DeleteIf it's $15M in support I wouldn't exactly call it being "rushed in" then. And even if Ukraine is currently beating the rebels if Russia decides to invade then the Ukrainians are going to need all of the help they can get.
DeleteAlso, if you haven't watched any of their videos I highly encourage you to look at some of the "Russian Roulette" updates from Vice News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkTHyxeq1A0#t=179
I should probably add that when I say the rebels are on the "verge of defeat" I'm saying around 1-2 months time.
DeleteI totally agree with you Patrick, and I think that some people here should try to get better informed about Ukraine situation and to avoid simplistic connection with other areas of crisis.
DeletePrimus, i think that you should reassess. you've fallen into the trap that is afflicting the western world....false complexity. the underlying issues are quite simple and very well known.
Deletethe old government was overthrown. a new govt was installed that promised closer ties to the west. Russia went ape shit because they don't want NATO right next to their border in addition to not wanting to lose Crimea which they view as distinctly Russian. citizens in Crimea agreed and those in eastern ukraine also decided they didn't want to be apart of what the rest of ukraine wanted to do.
they rebelled.
underlying all this is the economic decay that is part of the ukrainian society. additionally the cost to bring them into the EU or to even turn their economy around is going to be astronomical.
there will be no winners in this.
the ukrainian people will suffer, this war is just the beginning. additionally i stand by my assessment. things can't be going well with this latest aide package and more sanctions.
long story short, east and west ukraine is FUCKED.
Solomon, try to understand a few things. Donetsk and Lugansk provinces are like, 10 percent of Ukraine territory. Rebels control around 1/5th of the territory in those provinces. There are barely any locals fighting on their side - mostly criminal element, and russian mercs. Russian support is both direct - artillery strikes from across the border, and armor/ammo, as well as indirect - propaganda, strategies, etc. Two top military commanders (Bolotov and Girkin) are fucking RUSSIANS, and bolotov just came back from Moscow a couple of days ago.
DeleteSo technically, it's just another land-grabbing attempt by Putin, but it's not working out very well, and will be over pretty soon, unless he takes direct military action.
Yes, yes. We know about Russia and Putin. But are you turning around to look at who's backing Kiev, or assigning any responsibility to them?
DeleteImagine for a moment that the USA collapses, and California decides to go its own way. Would what's left of the USA take kindly to Russia or China spending several billion dollars to install their own puppet in Sacramento? Especially if they were pumping up neo-Nazi groups to terrorize (insert ethnic group)? Leading to a civil war centered on Bakersfield, LA, or San Diego? Would we maaaaybe want to get involved in that to protect our interests?
You can demonize Russia all you want, but it's their doorstep we're talking about here. For them not to be involved in Ukraine would be insane. The real question is why the US is fanning the flames there, and it has everything to do with Crimea. Denying Russia its Black Sea ports would prevent them from being able to militarily support Syria or Iran, which are the real targets.
See how it's all the same global campaign? See why Israel decided to distract the bulk of the world's media attention by attacking Gaza when they did?
How about USA decides to invade and occupy South of Canada, just because they desperately need the Newfoundland tomorrow?
DeleteIf Russia or China started interfering with the Canadian government, with the potential of denying the US the use of a vital port or base that it already had an agreement for, you can bet we'd get involved. That's just reality.
DeleteSure, and while you're at it, stick your flag there.
DeleteMuddy the relations? Are you talking about the US supplying Kiev and upsetting Russia? Or are you talking about Kiev asking for help because they need it with the added bonus of upsetting Russia? If the latter Kiev would bend over backwards to upset the Russians even if what they asked for would tip us into the war. That is why they are dangerous. That is why some seriously gave consideration to the idea that Kiev forces shot down the plane. I would let those regions go, let the borders and populations settle, and get back to normality. These idiots are fighting a war of the type we have so often seen in Africa where an imaginary line has split a people causing conflict with neighbours. The US and the EU moved to fast after the end of the Cold War to roll up Central Europe without thinking in the longer term. That we have only had one conflict and not more is a blessing. Obama needs to deal with the US southern border and stop this distraction.
ReplyDeletewell to answer your question i was talking about the US supplying Kiev and upsetting Russia. i don't think we need to keep poking that bear. we still need help with Iran and Syria, don't need to push them further into the China camp etc...
Deleteoh and i agree with you totally. i think thats what we're seeing in the Middle East. a natural rearrangement of artificial boundaries. it will be messy, it will cause wars but it should be more peaceful in the long term....of course we hate temporary pain for long term gain and everyone likes to default to the status quo unless we're talking about social issues, illegal drug use or taking guns from law abiding citizens.
Thanks. The trouble is too many here in the West the Ukraine situation is being presented as the rise of a new Hitler. If it wasn't for nuclear weapons the West European states by their own could take Russia as she isn't really that strong. While our living rooms are filled with images from Gaza with a side of Ukraine and seasoning of ISIS/L the real game is going on elsewhere,
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Development_Bank
Look at that map. My fear is that China and India with Russia have more in common than what drives them apart. Money talks. Vast pools of man power. Global dispersal. The US taking risks on expensive platforms that are in few number and can only be in one place never mind how full of tech'. The US may have a really good surveillance system and may be able to see the enemy everywhere and his disposition. But then again Custer had pretty good handle on the enemy's position and strength at the Big Horn.....
Russia and India already have tons of stuff that is common. So does India and France. India and Japan. India and Israel. Russia and France even.
DeleteInterestingly so far there is no direct evidence of Russia supplying the Pro-russian separatists (did i mention that they voted to secede) and is being put under sanctions ,while a Kiev goverment that came to power in a coup is not even thinking of holding elections for next 3 years and at the same time being considered democratic and is getting arms to fuel a conflict they are loosing ,from abroad interestingly we never hear about any atmpts at negotiations .Talk about wining the media war.
ReplyDeleteOh please...
Deletehttp://time.com/3042640/satellite-russian-ukraine-shelling/
Also, if you believe those votes (where 98% of the populace supposedly voted to join Russia) aren't shams then you're being willfully ignorant.
That's not worse than the steal of US Presidence by, first Harry Truman to Henry Wallace, and GW Bush to Al Gore...
DeleteAnd our President, less popular than 10%, elected by hasard of a pervert critical fail.
And, also, why do you think it's impossible to get 98% of vote ? They are majority, certainly people that were counter separatism knowed it, and didn't go to vote !
And also, we did the same thing for Kosovo and at this time, russia warned us about that way of doing things.
And US has already lie about Russia army, using old Sattelite picture, and even worse if we talk about Irak.
So the best thing to do, for everybody excluding the "Empire" ( US, UK, UE elits), is waiting russia actions and victory.
Ukrain is just a piece on other country wargames, like syria, afghanistan ...
What was that piece of evidence the State Department put out last week concerning the Malaysian plane? A Google Maps image with a line across the middle of Ukraine, yet the Russia who produced radar data were accused of faking it! The latter may well have been fake, I am not saying the Russian are innocent, but just to put out a Google Map image and expect to be believed just because they are (or believe themselves to be) the good guys is stretching it a bit. They either think we are gullible or they have too much ego and so we can be dismissed as inconsequential. The contempt they show for us is disgusting. Yet everybody with real power in the Obama White House must have grown up in the shadow of the bomb. Quite terrifying. Especially with Hilary coming down the pike,
Deletehttp://youtu.be/oQRvINebeok
DeleteRussian-published, but still damning.
They were supposedly 89% with 74% turnout Donetsk ,and 96% in Lugansk (but from my expirence when countries declare independence and run referendums you are always looking at near 90% ,and population here is Russian and you can bet the would like to have Russian pay pensions and GDP sort of like Maxicans in us so it might not be a stretch , for example retieres in Krimea will get almost 60% higer penisons from Russia that the would form Ukraine same goes far pay)
DeleteKiev on the other hand ,held no elections after the coup and are not planed till 2017 even tough they just disbanded the goverment
And remember the Satelite photos of Russian troop concertation on the border , turns out were 8 months old
I do not claim russians are not lying but Kiev and its allies are at least as bad if not worse .
Presidential elections on May 2014.
Deleteearly parliament elections promised.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2014/Aug-01/265758-ukraine-president-promises-early-parliament-elections.ashx#axzz39Gm8Tyso
Boy the Putin fanboys are out today...
Deletea) Kiev has already held elections (as stated by Paralus) in May.
b) Less than 50% of Eastern Ukraine identifies themselves as Russian
c) In a fair democratic election, greater than 90% of the population voting for one side or the other is a virtual guarantee that the vote was rigged.
d) The Eastern Ukrainians "voted" when they were in the middle of an active war zone. How the hell is up to 96% of the population supposed to show up an vote when in the middle of a battlefield?
Presidential elections are of no consequence .
DeleteGoverment and parliment in power now is not elected .We will see how they play it the prolem now is that all the courrent parties are loosing in the pools big time while radicals are gaining popularity. Same guy promised month long counter terror campaig that went south and became a full scale war . So far we never hear any proposals for negotiations.
Are you aware that the parliament remains the same as it was before the Maidan events? Government is formed by it, so it was in their right to assign new people to the relevant positions. President has been reelected, because the old one FLED the country. Seriously, what is wrong with you people?
DeleteWith nazi in full power. There is perhaps no more gunmens in parlement but they are at the exit... With benediction of the west.
DeleteWas the democratic republic of germany a democraty ?
Seriously you can be nationnalist but you can t blind yourself like that.
Hitler (the real one) didn't disband his country's parliament. He kept them around to rubber-stamp and legitimize his decrees.
DeleteTrust neither side's words. Instead, watch their actions.
Its not so much what we are being told, but what we are not being told.
ReplyDeleteHow does Ukraine intend to seize Dontesk?
Go in street by street with small arms?
Go in with Armour?
Sit out at a distance and flatten the city with artillery?
One preserves the civilian populace and the infrastructure of the city, but cost loyalist blood by the bucket full
Two is a bit of a middle ground, there will be damage to the city and its people, but it will be limited, and loyalists will take fewer casualties. Unless the rebels are set up to deal with that, in which case they will be cut to ribbons.
Three prevents losses to the Ukraine Armed forces, but the whole point of the war is to reclaim the taxpayers and industries of the east. That cant be done if they are killed and destroyed.
It is August. In two months it will be October in Donetsk and October gets cold. Ave mean temp is 47. People living without water, electricity, fuel, natural gas start getting antsy.
DeleteUkraine won't be taking Donetsk, they will be surrounding it and cutting it off from Russia, then slowly squeezing it and keeping supplies from the populace.
then the Ukrainians will start negotiating as the days get colder and colder for Donetsk
You can t redo a stalingrad there !
DeleteThe rebels plays at home !
They are backed by russia, not lituania !
Your enemy homeland is too close ! Germans were little farther from supply !
You don t control black sea !
You can t assiege civilian without a heavy polotical cost !
Obviously you re not youkov nor kroutchev...
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DeleteParalus
DeleteAnd the west / NATO / EU are all signed up to this little episode of genocide?
Strangling a city full of civilians during the east european winter? I really don't see how the West would support this, despite who's right in this conflict.
DeleteAny such attempt would provoke an immediate, brutal and JUSTIFIED Russian response.
DeleteThey'll run food and fuel tankers in with armored escorts just looking for a fight, and you'll bet they will plan their routes to maximise contact not minimise it
genocide? fuck that noise, cowboy.
DeleteI didn't say strangle, I said they would cut off outside support and then regulate what enters. Right now, with the Russian border kept open by the rebels so the Russians can smouggle in weapons, ammo, vehicles, etc, it is too easy for the rebels to still have support.
Look for the Ukrainians to move around to cut off Donetsk and seal the border, then start inspecting cargo of trucks entering/leaving to ensure it is food, fuel, etc and not RPGs and PKT MGs.
Considering the carnage the Russians inflicted upon the Chechens and the bombardment of Grozny and anything other town that had rebels, they have no moral leg to stand on. And the Ukrainians have been quite restrained in comparison to the butchery of Chechnya.
Send in some coal or natural gas for limited hours of heat and electricity, but the Ukrainians will seal off Donetsk and offer negotiations. If smart, they'll offer up amnesty for rebel grunts, prison for the leaders and Russians will be sent packing.
Do you know how do piranhas manage to eat up an elephant? Well, one tiny bit at a time. Russia has been involved in 3 major wars in the last three years, all of which ended up in territorial gains, with strategic oil pipelines running through these territories . They keep playing the same old game - provoke an 'internal' conflict, send in peace keeping forces. Same scenario in Karabach, South Ossetia, Aphasia, Pridnestrovje, Crimea, and now Donetsk/Lugansk. Anyone else see a pattern there?
DeleteThis may be an interesting supplemental read...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dw.de/ukraine-denies-using-ballistic-missiles/a-17827342
Damn it. Sol, the things are not so bad as you think. The Ukrainian army has a huge number of troubles but it is acting successfully. There are big losses that's true but I am looking at a map of the antiterror operation, the army is capturing one inhabited locality per 3-4 days from my observations. This is the map which is being updated every day. A legend of the map is simple. http://mediarnbo.org/?p=3788
ReplyDeleteI am pretty sure that Ukraine will win if Russia doesn't deploy massive forces.
About the news, it's great if USA would send some modern vehicles to Ukraine. That's they need right now.
Here you can see new maps as soon as they appear: http://mediarnbo.org/?cat=33 You don't need to know a foreign language there.
DeleteI agree, the Ukraine was slow to mobilize, but they have the open, legitimate support of an entire nation whereas the rebels have the covert support of the Russians. There are only so many military depots and warehouses the rebels can capture, the Ukrainians can manufacture their own and recruit, conscript from a larger pool.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf we want the Ukraine to win, we should send them Strykers, M-1s (hey, we got 1000s in storage but no proper working power-pack - to - tank ratio), M-4 pea-shooters and make them a team member for the Joint Strike Fighter program.
ReplyDeleteIf I wasn't laughting, I'd be crying
Deletethe perfect testament to how morally bankrupts the US is.
And we keep wondering why the people we train and equip keep losing.
I think you should read this one Sol:
ReplyDeletehttp://rt.com/news/177376-kiev-nato-ballistic-missile/