Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently said that he agreed with Poland’s foreign minister about a heightened risk of invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
To quote Hagel:I think it’s a reality, of course it is. When you see the build-up of Russian troops and the sophistication of those troops, the training of those troops, the heavy military equipment that’s being put along that border, of course it’s a reality, it’s a threat, it’s a possibility – absolutely.
Hagel went on to say that “the longer that Russia perpetuates and instigates this tension and the possibility of escalating their activity, it’s going to get worse. And we have to be prepared for that.”
Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, had warned that “the threat of a direct intervention (by Russia into Ukraine) is certainly greater than it was even a few days ago. ”
On Wednesday, NATO warned that the number of “combat-ready” Russian troops near the Ukrainian border had gone from 12,000 to 20,000.
Absolutely awesome.
Pass the popcorn. Italy just went back into recession, Germany is hurting because it does so much business with Russia and the sanctions are hurting them both....the rest of the EU/US are all teetering on the brink....and Ukraine is getting ready to hook and jab with the Russian Bear.
American Mercenary believes that a global economy is here to stay.
I believe its a house of cards waiting to fall.
Ukraine is probably the focal point for a great many people's futures....for better or worse.
Russia is also throwing counter-sanctions (of much smaller intensity for now) vs the US and EU.
ReplyDeleteThis scenario was predicted a long time ago, by a lot of people, and somehow the Obama administration fell right onto this.
I wonder, where are all those tanks, APC's, IFV's, jets, helis, self propelled artillery etc...(of ukraine) with which they were threatening my country ?..
ReplyDeleteI think it's going to be either a surrender or very short and painful for them...
I can't wait to see how the germans, french and others will react regarding sanctions...their traditional greed has been proven again.
I would erase rusia from every map, trade, commerce, economical, like simply it wouldn't exist and look at it like a unstable black hole.
But again, money.........
I would erase rusia from every map, trade, commerce, economical
DeleteBgggg. Enough said.
look at it like a unstable black hole.
But again, money.
Money is just paper. Recourses – that is important. And crucial technology like cosmos and atom. And, of course, possibility to tear in pieces every ass who is going to “erase” you.
This is an interesting video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4DpPr9xy5U&list=PLw613M86o5o7DfgzuUCd_PVwbOCDO472B
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Deleterebels' self-made grenades
Deletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuceFMSCEAAO9Bw.jpg
trophies taken from surrounded Ukrainian troops by rebels
http://i.imgur.com/z9aQTYI.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/tAvCjuM.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/uM8YN2u.jpg
Sanctions dont do shit against big countries or countries with a wide resource base.
ReplyDeleteMore sanctions on Russia- More Russians hurt.
More Russians hurt- More the chances that Putin organizes an international bloodbath to distract/divert his people.
You have seen that existing sanctions have done nothing of significance to Russia. An extension of sanctions to further sections of Russia will also not give you any leverage.
Sanctions also did not work against China they way people wanted them to in the wake of the Tianamen Square Massacre.
Sanctions have also not worked in case of India when we carried out Nuclear Testing in the 70's and 80's.
These 3 are examples where resource rich and resource harvest rich countries dont find sanctions a deterrent to pursue "their agenda".
Though I will admit the effectiveness of the Iran Sanctions. They have been on for some time now but its effects on the Politics and Economics of Iran have been telling.
oops, not the 80's, we carried out nuclear testing in 1998.
DeleteI agree with you Sarab. If anything the pressure and hostile instance towards Russia only made things worse.
DeleteSorry, I disagree with you. I am resident of Russia and I am watching now they do however they hit ordinary people in the main, while officials continue to live perfectly. There is a question what is the fucking president going to do, to stop insanity and support the militants or to turn the country into a state like North-Korea. Nonetheless you're right that Putin could out of his mind and would do bloodbath, I already don't know what to expect of him.
Delete1Modeus, sanctions have a 50/50 chance of working. In some countries it works, other countries it doesnt. Sanctions however effect the rich and the powerfull the least. And those are the people who make most decisions.
DeleteThe rich and powerfull in every country are the first to organize contraband and clandestine routes for money, services and goods. They have well established safety nets spread throughout various countries like any good horse racing betting fan would. They spawn multi-billion dollar consultant/banker economy where people in Erminigeldo Zegna suits tell them through advanced mathematical equations how their wealth will be protected.
The recent low recoverings of British Taxpayer Wealth from Switzerland is a case in point about rich and powerfull and their wealth protection firewalls.
The average Joes and average Ivans and average Kumars like us get fucked the most, like you mentioned.
And........no one gives a damn about the poorest of the poor. Its like they magically disapear from the equation. They disapear from the equation till the time they make their comeback as ISIS, Maoists, Naxals etc.
Sarabvir Singh, yeah, I'd just add that in this country many of rich and oligarchs in most of cases are people related to embezzlement or money laundering and the law doesn't apply to them. People only watch how they live with stolen money and can't do anything. So, these sanctions could be a way to affect on them. I am really glad to hear about politicians who are banned entry to the West I also hope their accounts will be frozen.
DeleteLet's suppose they do affect these oligarchs...
DeleteThey are intimately related to the Russian political and economic system. If they were angry over it, Putin would be the first to know and the first to act. We don't see that happening.
I was reading about Putin being pushed in his agenda not only by his own political ideology and vision, but by ultranationalists in Russia. What's your take in this 1Modeus?
The third surge announced by pentagon of russian troops ! American bluff !
ReplyDeleteDo you remember, first time, it was 30000, second time 45000, and now 12000 to 20000 !
Some remarks, sattelite have blur image, that's why wxe don't have clear picure of buk batterie on all newspapers, and that's why their troop estimation have the range of a DIVISION ! That so discreet a division ! A russian division has so few anks and trucks, we can see it from space !
The thing you all catch is the surge of pression : the us faced that economic sanctions are useless, russia will have Mistral, that's a Trafalgar for us diplomaty. Perhaps the beginning of a new era...
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ReplyDeleteThe best quote of the week: "Russian Federation peacekeeping forces should be always in high level COMBAT reediness" - Siergiej Szojgu RF Minister of Defense.
DeleteEDIT: a little typo.
Everybody chill ! Nobody is going to invade anybody ... Why ? because the Russians have no need to invade ... The ukrainian army is being chopped to pieces as we speak, despite all the lies being spun by Kiev, which sounds more and more like Radio Moscow at the height of the cold war.
ReplyDeleteKiev knows they had a window of opportunity, until the fall when they'll need russian gas again and will have to get back to the negociation table. They wanted to put themselves in a better bargaining positions by achieving some mmilitary success in the East.
They got deluded by their Slaviansk "victory" but now face the reality of the balance of power in the East ... The army is ill equipped, morale is weak, pay is miserable and casualties are high (much higher than officially admitted). The national guard is totally inept at putting up a fight against an organised force ... The Air superiority is being truncated more and more by quality of revels AA-weaponry. The list goes on and on.
You can draw up all the maps you like, show progress of the Kiev rag tag army, but the reality check is now: in Lougansk and Donetsk ... Took Kive three months to retake Slaviansk, a town of 130 000 inhabitants, hard to defend (and about 90% of pro-russian forces broke the encirclement and escaped). And now they're facing the prospect of conquering Lougansk (400 000 people, 20 miles from Russian border, so very short resupply routes) and Donetsk (1.6 million people), where pro-russians had all those months to prepare for coming onslaught ... I can tell you this: the Kiev troops are shitting their pants at the prospect, no wonder those who crossed into Russia didnt all want to come back ! Even in the Lviv area, people are starting to voice concern about this mess in the East.
I wonder if the people in charge in Kiev will be so foolish as to attempting entering those two cities ... there's a eerie smell of Grozny 1996 in the air !
Sorry, think siege of Grozny was in 1994 actually (or 1995 ?)
DeleteDude... but they DID come back. Both Ukrainian and Russians news confirm that. Soldiers that cross border with FR in most cases came back to Ukraine in Thursday.
DeleteTrue, in "most cases" that means 50 % + ... but even with a desertion rate of 25 %, that's still massive ... i stand by what i wrote: ukrainian army being chopped up. now that they can't use air force as they did in the beginning, all they have left is their field artillery ... talk about "combat and manoeuver" !
DeleteAdd to that the attrition rate in the "national guard" who had already one batalion totally wiped out, and you understand the articles Solomon posted about more equipment being flown in ... won't change the equation basically, they're going down the drain and taking the whole country down with them, at least til the beginning of the winter ... when they will come begging for russian gas and will be willing to settle this peacefully.
I don't have a beef in this fight, just being an informed observer, so that's my opinion on this. Ukraine might turn out to be the Afghanistan of Europe ... FUBAR from top to bottom !
Oh I perfectly understand that Ukraine is "attacked" under the same frozen conflict pattern like many other places that Russia create. Yes, it can be maybe not Afghanistan but more an larger scale Transnistria. If Ukrainian forces will not try to do one more solid offensive and cut Russians and pro-Russians from FR, they may have a very long fight before them that they may not win.
DeleteThey still have the power to do this, still they have both equipment and men and the will of soldiers to do this. But most reports suggests that officer corp is not only infiltrated by Russians but highly incompetent on almost every level. You can call them the band of lions lead by sheep. The losses are probably much higher then they say, no wonder when you send reservist against mostly battle harden mercenaries and Russian spec ops.
But don't worry, if we believe separatist they saw already F-22, Abrams tanks, Apache helos with support of Polish Army Division with heavy equipment and air support with company of Czech and Dutch mercenaries. This will probably end in mere minutes. [sarcasm off]
You are too optimistic, I guess. Because you take it rational. Both Ukrainian and Russian have another approach. It is an internal family conflict having a hundred years long and too bloody history – so it is very cruel and will be more cruel in the Future. As I know our militaries are too close for invasion – a lot of them desire of Ukrainian Nazis. But in hemisphere of civilians – it is not so desirable.
DeleteUkrainian people turned to be so passive – and they turned to be able kill civilians in mass artillery hit in their neighbor regions (Russian speaking from the West of the territory fight against such Russian-speaking people and call them “terrorist’’). After USSR fall – Ukraine got an Army equal to present Russian by now. Of course Ukrainians trade planes, materials and ammo on the left and the right but they still have a lot of material – reportedly they have lost about 30% of planes and choppers, but only about 10% of artillery and armored vehicles. So they have human resources and material to fight. Former Ukraine is a country of tycoons – and one of them, Poroshenko, is formal “president” by now – rebellious Donbass gave about 25% of foreign currency to Ukraine and have a lot of “tasty” plants and natural resources . So oligarchs will fight for Donbass until the last Ukrainian solder. It is not a problem for oligarchs and their handled geneals – their children stay alive and never go to frontline. In Chechenian wars were fallen more then dozen generals’ sons - but I’ve never heard Ukrainian generals sons were to be on front line , as such as Ukrainian generals mounted at the first BTR in the column – first to fight, first to die, like Russian generals do. So I can’t understand why an average Ukrainian goes to fight this bloody damn war.
According to the solid civilian airplane, full of foreign civilians, was down (by Vlad Putin personally of course) – bets are so high in this game. And every additional vile crime can come to realty – no doubt – Russian town, being hit with Ukrainian “Tochka” missile (“ a bloody provocation of KGB agents’’ –and ” I saw in Youtube – Vlad Putin did it” Jen Psaki will say) for example. Or hit at local chemistry plants – it is a totally craziness but few of them on Donbass still contain a lot of chlorine and ammonia – tycoons-owners of the plants had no wish to stop the plants and lose their sacred money.
So we should include in the accounting every variants – until Nuke war in the nearest future. This war promises to be very bloody as every Russian civil war.
Shas will be pissed at me but quite honestly i don't feel we have a dog in this fight. if Russia decides to invade Poland then guess what. time for me to pull my gear out of the locker and get ready cause its gonna be nasty. Russia invades Ukraine? where is our interests?
DeleteRomania, Moldova, Poland, Georgia? yeah. we will fight and fight hard. Ukraine? tell me why we should care. i'm not trying to be cold or smart assy...its just how i feel. i'm interested in this war because of the tactics and equipment. the politics of it bore the hell outta me though.
I understand Sol', they are not NATO, they are not EU... I ask myself many times why we even care. If they can't protect own integrity why I should care about them. But then I start to think, if there is an fire in the house of my neighbor then I should watch at it and do nothing, or try to help him suppress it because it can move to my house. And that it my neighbor, we have the same border... it's just outside my door. Hell, I live near Ukrainian border it's even more personal for me.
DeleteMost of my colleagues and friends say they afraid of deja vu. As they look at history of WWII start and how world do nothing when Third Reich annex Czechoslovakia (yeah we Poles also have an dark page in that we we in all that mess grab some land's for us) then only couple of years later we ware invade by Reich and Soviet union and put in to permanent occupation. We taken the largest losses of life per nation in whole war, lost after it half of territory. But yeah, we had some international defense pacts, deals with France and GB, and that give us nothing at the end. People start to see analogue to that times, that no mater how good the deals are we will be alone and that is for many rather scary.
Fear Sol', this is fuel for our support for Ukraine. Fear that it's the first step for something that is a trauma for my nation. Decades of communist occupation is not make it better, it's just... too much similarities and too much unknown's.
Invade Poland? God forbid!
Delete“i'm interested in this war because of the tactics and equipment.”
Equipment is all – good-old soviet stuff in both parties. But operational tactic of both sides – is very interesting.
About equipment – it were two noticeable changes recently – Ukrainians used Mig-29 for assault strike and it was down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5JW4dunZF4
It was said rebels captured several Osa AAsystems after escaped Ukrainian army. So it looks like worse days for Ukrainian aviation are going to be. Using a plane, not designed for assault with no armor, and appearance of AA with 9 km range in height – actually bad news.
New vid – reportedly it was a column of Grad artillery systems captured by rebels after Ukrainian army.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu81QWr-glU
And by-the-way, Solomon, why do you keep silence about international “tank biathlon” in Russia? Are you not interested in competition of Chinese Type 96 A and Russian forced T-72 B3?
https://plus.google.com/photos/102730541676600824994/albums/6044428788191641297
2 Shas
DeleteSo you are a Polish - it explains everything))). Relax, I actually see no reason for present Russia to invade your country.
If you remember about annexing Czechoslovakia (most of Polish I discuss with try to forget and “forgive” it) you should remember about your government’s direct protection to illegal Maydan riot in Ukraine. So you deserve Russian economic sanctions (“an apple a day keeps the doctor away”, bgggg) – but you can get some Ukrainian territory in the Future. Russia is not interested in all Ukraine.
It was "An apple a day keeps the Putin away" :D We really don't care about sanctions for food products, you notice that from some... 10 years Russia ban one or other food product for, well mainly pretty idiotic reasons . You can say we ware sure that Russia will again ban some, that's why in those years export of that famous apples drop from almost 60% to 20% because most producers start to see Russia as unstable economical region that one day buy, other ban and after week they buy again. This is bad for businesses. Also after Poland strongly support Orange Revolution relation between Russia and Poland rapidly decline and from 2005 they are going down all the time. The ban's of products start and even if Russia is good buyer it take a label of unstable and moody business partner.
Deleteinfo' let my explain you something... that for the future relations. When Russia is saying that we can "take" part of other country, take part of partition it... is one of the greater insult to us. This is like slap in the face for us, something unthinkable. We have bloody history, that one of the greatest mental scars are the partition of our country started and continued in that times by Russian Empire. Then our again partition by Reich and Soviets and finally under communist occupation. This is something Americans would call "Never Again" syndrome. That situation when we take part of Czech's after Reich annex them was a black page in our history that we ashamed to this day.
Don't you EVER again propose that we take part in partition of any nation, especially with Russia!
Just for information lad, nothing personal just understand that this is situation that provoke very hot reactions in Poles.
Don't you EVER again propose that we take part in partition of any nation, especially with Russia!
DeleteOk. I've got it. Excuse me, if I've given an offense.
The appetite for war and anger in the West over the Ukraine begins to wane and hey presto US intel tell us the Russians are massing on the Ukrainian border. Obama and Merkel are stupid. This is an artificial situation it isn't worth the life of one US or British service man. God help us.
ReplyDeleteInvade them? For what? To feed Ukrainians again? I see just on reason to invade the territory - to control their atomic plants, but this time do not come yet.
ReplyDeleteDonbass heavy industry, rich coal and other minerals, probably large deposit of gas. The extremely fertile Ukrainian lands... and at the last but the most important. Nationalistic greatrussian ideology that is the core of president Putin politics.
DeleteYou think in terms of material gains, most of it Russia already has. The main core of this is ideology, the rise from the ashes NeoCCCP with ALL it's former territories. Don't think about this in classic ways, this is not about oil & gas... this is about nationalistic vision of one man. The New Russian Empire.
I beg to differ:
Delete"Donbass heavy industry"
Russian oligarchs are happy to kill their competitors, I guess. Otherwise, Russian forces would hold these industry objects by now. There is no need use Russian military force to capture this resources, there are proxy ways for this.
"that is the core of president Putin politics."
At my standpoint “the core” is “to do some money again”. After Stalin died it was only some old clothes and books left. And men around him were the same. But Putin and his elite are the totally different. It is a disaster for us – but our current tsar is an businessman, and his elite is nothing but greedy scumbags (at least greatly part of them). May be my perverted and degraded nation deserves this damn shame. Another words you pay to much attention to internal side of the things. I see no imperial idea around me, I personally too desire it to be truth to leave it unnoticed. But only null and void rethoric.
But it is great pressure for direct fight at Putin, committed by Russian military as I know. And Putin can unleash them to be more popular among them – in conditions of Western pressure Putin needs to have military support.
They hate to compare Adolph Hitler to Vladimir Putin but the pattern is the same. Strong leader that rebuild economic and spiritual, nation that was throw to knees in war. He create that nationalistic idea of greatrussia, the new Empire, something that people can be proud of. He get support from main industrial family's, the bankers, people who will support him for even more cash. Then he show specific sympathy for military, give generals new toys, new wars that they can play of. Give them again fighting spirit.
DeleteBut I presume that the main ruling caste may divide to businessman-oligarchs that only want to get more cash and military-hawks that want to get everything with force. Many of them are old breed, the Soviet breed like the president. They maybe not to refine, strongly sentimental for CCCP idealistic view. They are the dangerous ones. Oligarchs are capitalists they will prefer calm trade network and moneymakers... but wars and constant state of alert can also generate large profits. They also can be in some situations dangerous.
And there is group number three. The Nationalistic lunatics that exist in most nations, the ones that dream of some great Empires, great wars for the Red Banner, White Star or Golden Dragon... name the symbol you will find this type of persons. The ones that think they are superior, better, and if someone will not join them, became the enemy. Those type of persons can drown the world in blood just to jerk off on it ashes. Imagine person like Vladimir Zhirinovsky... imagine what would happen if that type of man get the power to do what they say.
Hitler vs Putin comparison is utter BS ! Too bad it's been launched by US politicians, they should know better ... anybody who believes there's some truth to that doesn't know history and/or should get their f*ing head examined !
Deletehere photos of trophies after deserted Ukrainian troops are published
ReplyDeletehttp://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1719357.html