Thanks for the info Tony!
via CBS Dallas.
NOTE: Riddle me this. The new info that I have says that the guy landed in the US on the 20th. He showed symptoms on the 22nd, and then went to the hospital on the 24th. They sent him away and he returned on the 28th where he was admitted.
So from the 22nd to the 28th he was walking the streets of Dallas. He was in grocery stores, malls, restaurants etc...And yet I have some clown coming to this blog saying that all is well! Seriously? Really?
via CBS Dallas.
DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) – Officials with the Centers for Disease Control have confirmed that a person in Dallas definitely has the Ebola virus.Just fuckin fantastic.
Officials with the Centers for Disease Control are holding a press conference at 4:30 p.m.
It was late on the evening of September 29 that CBS 11 News learned a patient at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas was feared to have been exposed to the Ebola virus.
Health officials said given the information that the unnamed patient had been in the West Africa area where the Ebola virus exists and the type of symptoms they were exhibiting, testing was being performed.
NOTE: Riddle me this. The new info that I have says that the guy landed in the US on the 20th. He showed symptoms on the 22nd, and then went to the hospital on the 24th. They sent him away and he returned on the 28th where he was admitted.
So from the 22nd to the 28th he was walking the streets of Dallas. He was in grocery stores, malls, restaurants etc...And yet I have some clown coming to this blog saying that all is well! Seriously? Really?
Putting "everyone on the airplane, everyone he came in contact with" in quarantine would make sense if EVD/EHF was airborne. Considering that it's only transmittable via direct fluid contact, that wouldn't really make sense. The only people who are at risk are those who "shared fluids," as it were, with the infected individual. In other words, unless he shared an infected needle, spewed blood on someone, or otherwise spread bodily fluids while on the plane, no one who was with him has any reason to fear infection.
ReplyDeleteThat's why neither EHF nor any other VHFs (i.e. Lassa, Hanta, or RVF) have ever gained a foothold in a first-world country. Every so often there will be a limited outbreak (limited to several people), such as the Hanta outbreak in New Mexico in 1993, but they never spread like they do in places such as Africa, mainly because the practices which cause it to spread there (eating bushmeat, non-sanitary embalming practices) don't really exist in the United States.
In other words, the presence of a person infected with a VHF (such as Ebola) in the United States isn't new -- outbreaks have happened literally dozens of times since first occurring in the 1980s. They just all follow the same basic formula: someone gets sick, the virus doesn't spread past a small number of individuals, the infected cases are moved to isolation in the nearest applicable hospital, 30-50% of infected cases die, the virus burns out, the media makes a mountain out of a molehill (gotta get those ratings up!), and everyone forgets about it as soon as the next big manufactroversy pops up.
AND THE SAME MEDICAL DUMBASSES SAID THAT THE VIRUS WOULDN'T MAKE IT TO THE US!
Deleteeveryone talks about bodily fluids but what about spittle while talking? what about shaking hands with a sweaty person? that's body fluids and not full blown mucus or blood. is that contagious?
quite honestly i'm almost thrilled. i consider this another nail in the coffin of globalization. this will be more than one or two people and your prediction of it soon being forgotten is going to be shown to be false.
the only good thing about this? its another stake in the heart of democrat chances to hold onto the senate.
God I'm sick of hearing this parroted BS!
DeleteThe CDC's *OWN FACT-SHEET* says that airborne transmission is possible within 3-4 feet. So if this guys walks on the plane, and goes to the bathroom at least once in the back, he's just exposed everyone on-board.
@SandWyrm
DeleteThe CDC's OWN FACT SHEET?!?!?!!!!1!! (why people on the Internet seem to insist upon using all caps to express their opinions is beyond me; it doesn't make what you're saying any clearer and looks cluttered)
You mean this fact sheet, which never mentions airborne transmission (and even specifically lists transmission methods, which it says are limited to direct fluid contact and exposure to fomites which have been in direct fluid contact with the victim?
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/resources/pdfs/ebola-factsheet.pdf
How about this web page, which also doesn't mention airborne transmission within "three to four feet," and in fact specifically says that "Ebola is not spread through the air or by water?"
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html
Or this CDC infographic, which specifically says, in bold print "You can't get Ebola through the air," then goes on to say that it's only transmittable through direct fluid contact or fomites?
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/infographic.pdf
How about this CDC infographic, which also doesn't mention anything like what you've posited, but also reaffirms what I've already said by stating that the virus is spread through direct fluid contact and fomites?
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/west-africa-outbreak-infographic.pdf
What about this CDC "risk of exposure" sheet? Does it say anything like what you've claimed the CDC is saying?
Nope.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/exposure/index.html
I'm not sure which alternate universe you're posting from, or which CDC you're referring to (for reference, I'm talking about the acronym that stands for *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention*), but so far it looks like you've pulled that info straight out of your ass.
Bill,
DeleteYour problem isn't what you know, it's what you perhaps don't know you don't know.
Let's try to give you a little focus, m'kay?
" Close contact
Close contact is defined as
a) being within approximately 3 feet (1 meter) of an EVD patient or within the patient’s room or care area for a prolonged period of time (e.g., health care personnel, household members) while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment (i.e., standard, droplet, and contact precautions; see Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations); or
b) having direct brief contact (e.g., shaking hands) with an EVD patient while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment.
Brief interactions, such as walking by a person or moving through a hospital, do not constitute close contact."
Source: CDC Guidance For Moving Patients With Possible EVD
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/monitoring-and-movement-of-persons-with-exposure.html
So according to the CDC, shaking hands with someone with symptomatic Ebola could be as bad as doing an unprotected orgy with a busload of Olongapo hookers with Aids.
BTW, sweat is a body fluid. So is coughed blood in sputum, which can fly for yards, as well as poorly-removed diarrhea by-products on one's hands after a bout or two of the runs. And the transmission of EVD is poorly researched, because playing with the stuff is dangerous, and testing it on people is unethical. So making blanket pronouncements about what it does and doesn't do is both wrong, and retarded. World class epidemiologists are far more tentative, and don't know most of what you casually assert.
The only sense that Ebola isn't "airborne" is that the virus hasn't completed 5 jumps at Ft. Benning of gradually increasing difficulty and combat simulation, nor have actual wings capable of flight. Otherwise, like horsehoes and hand grenades, with Ebola, close is close enough to catch it, unprotected.
And try to recall that both Brantly and Writebol contracted Ebola while wearing full protective suit/hood/mask/gloves/goggles/booties, and being chloro-sprayed frequently with decon solution.
So when you read that the CDC is calling Ebola "non-airborne", maybe flashback to the fact that the Ft. Hood Shooting, and the beheading this week are both called "workplace violence" rather than "jihad".
Secondly, the initial symptoms of EVD are fever, headache, muscle ache, and sometimes nausea/vomiting /diarrhea. You're fully infectious long before you start puking and crapping your guts out, or bleeding from every orifice from your eyes to your anus, and those initial symptoms are exactly what 60-80% of everyone in every US ER forever comes in the door with.
So maybe stop being such a tool about this, whether that's news to you, or if it's not.
Extremely well said! things are about to get real interesting, real fast in the Southwest part of the United States.
DeleteSol you're in Louisiana too right? Well doesn't it suck that the Saints played in Dallas on Sunday. At minimum a couple hundred people (prob more) from around the state were in Dallas at the same time as old bleeding eyes. That sucks.
DeleteAesop,
DeleteExactly. The virus isn't able to survive in the air for prolonged periods, but normal breathing and coughing put anyone within 3-4 feet at risk if a droplet hits a wound, mouth, nose, or eye. Walk a vector down the aisle of a 737, and you've just potentially exposed everyone on board.
Bill, I put stuff like that in all-caps because idiots take marketing slogans at face value, and don't bother to read the entire document provided. Or apply any sort of critical thinking to the problem. Which includes the mystery of why so many people following proper protocols are coming down with infections. Are they idiots who didn't read the fine print about close-contact, or did the virus mutate in such a way that the danger zone is now 4-8 feet instead of 3-4?
Good luck, gents.
ReplyDeleteI've only been pointing out the obvious on my blog for almost two months.
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/08/pandemic-how-it-works-at-pointy-end.html
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/08/ebola-breaks-out-at-us-benghazi.html
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/09/ebola-simon-sez-you-need-to-wake-fuck-up.html
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/09/ebola-update.html
And all I've had were the Internet and open public sources, and wee bit of experience in the medical trade.
So, hey, Welcome To My World now.
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/09/welcome-to-my-world.html
I sincerely hope you're prepared, because shit just got real. And it's going to be a bumpy ride.
I would be a lot more swayed by your posts if it wasn't for the fact that you seem to have absolutely no clue how Ebola is actually transmitted.
DeleteHint: it's not the flu. It's not airborne. Unless your mucous membranes are exposed to direct contact with an infected person's blood, semen, vomitus, feces, or urine, you won't get it. No, you can't spread it by hugging, kissing, or touching someone, unless both your skin and the other person's skin have open wounds which come into contact.
On second fact, it's not the fact that you seem to have no real understanding of the virus that caused me to not believe what you said. It's the fact that *I don't take medical advice from a random person on a blog*. Honestly, why people trust random strangers with a weblog to provide them with medical advice, but disregard people who have actually spend years, if not decades, *actually working in the medical field* is beyond me. It's the Web 2.0 equivalent of the Nigerian prince chain mail...
I'll just leave this here.
http://thefederalist.com/2014/01/17/the-death-of-expertise/
explain something to me. you glossed over the point that Aesop made about the infected medical personnel that have been brought back from Africa with this disease.
Deletethey were fully trained on how to deal with this disease. they took steps to make sure that they decontaminated after ever contact with infected people but they STILL GOT IT!
so if its as difficult to spread as you say then why did they get sick?
medical practitioners are always at greater risk, even though they know the risks they are some of the higher risk factors as they will be in contact with bodily fluids
DeleteBill, it's hard to respond to you with all the respect your know-nothing position demands, and all the consideration your well-sourced non-response commands. I generally avoid ad hominem, because on its own, it's fallacious. Except like all slander, when the truth of the statement is an absolute defense against the charge.
DeleteBecause as you evidently have no clue, I've only pissed away about a quarter-century actually working in the medical field in direct patient care, with the degrees, certs, licensures, and ongoing training requisite, along with evaluating and caring for something like 250,000 actual patients in two of the busiest emergency rooms in the country, including the busiest one on the entire planet. (Really.) So despite your armchair internet knowitall credentials, and your graduate degree in gainsaying, by no strange coincidence, epidemics, pandemics, the medical response to same, along with well-known and obvious shortcomings, is just ever so slightly in my wheelhouse, by education and experience. If I were a pilot, that'd be the equivalent of around 40,000 hours in my logbook. (Ask around at the local airport if that comparison is any way confusing to you.) If you'd like, we can ask the IRS to confirm the fact that I make my living dealing with this all the time. Clearly, exactly the opposite of such for you.
So, just for curiosity's sake, what's your expertise and training in, when you're not swimming in waters far over your head?
Secondly, your mucous membranes are exposed every time you open your eyes, or breathe, or touch your face near your nose or mouth. They cover this in middle school biology, or at least they did when I was there. Maybe you've noticed this a time or two in your sheltered life, when you got something in your eye or caught a cold.
And also clearly, mere N95 masks and splash goggles aren't proving enough of a barrier to stop the virus in 100% of cases, as a few hundred dead healthcare workers could attest, if only their insides hadn't turned to red mush some time back. And the virus seems fairly robust and quite easy to spread, if we consult the multiple reports from WHO regarding West Africa since March. But thanks for your opinion that all this documented reality is completely un-possible.
Thirdly, since this isn't possibly in any way airborne, perhaps you can explain how those hundreds of healthcare workers have gotten Ebola and died, including the two Americans who were suited up from head to toe exactly according to CDC guidelines and sprayed with chlorine bleach decontamination solution?
Do you figure maybe they were licking their patients, or their gloves, or what?
Or is it just a bare possibility that the mechanism of transmission, and the ease of passing the contagion along, is just ever so slightly more robust and easy than the total-BS rosy estimates you've been spoon-feeding yourself, from your vast fund of medical non-expertise, and years of experience in discounting anything that's inconveniently different than what you imagine to be true, and thus you might be overdue for a tweak closer to the real world long about now?
You are the living embodiment of "The Death Of Expertise", because you can't recognize it when it, or reality, bites you in the ass. It's ironically hilarious that you refer to that federalist essay, because here you sit, the living embodiment of the Jenny McCarthy Professorate Chair In Ebola Studies, holding yourself out as an Offishul Expurt, while assing up the entire discussion here, by the numbers, as though your possession of a keyboard trumps documented facts contrary to your every post. So broaden your knowledge base. Popping your head out would be a good first step.
Added to favorites, thank you Aesop.
Delete(Clapping for Aesop)
DeleteThere is no fool like a self-rightous fool.
if this was going to become epidemic it would have a while back, people fly around so much if it was so transmittable we would have seen it spread by people traveling from africa to other parts of the world, it hasnt, this isnt SARS, i believe there should be concern by CDC but tempered with facts.
ReplyDeletewe call that normalcy bias. let me give you a warrior tip. if you're out somewhere .... doesn't matter where ....and your spider sense goes off, then you better pay attention. you can ignore it and find yourself hip deep in the worst shit sandwich you ever imagined. take that along with common sense and trace back this ebola mess.
Deletethey brought back infected patients to the US. people were outraged but people started saying it was safe and people adopted the politically correct position. then another patient came. now we have a person coming into the US, walking around for 6 days while sick and yet you're still saying that all is well.
sorry buck-o! your spidey sense is malfunctioning.
Yeah, the two doctors that were brought to the U.S. -- you mean the ones doomsday fetishists told us would cause a massive outbreak, end society as we know it, and transform the world into one where only those with teh most gunz would survive?
DeleteHow's that prediction working out? I'm guessing about as well as the whole Y2K thing...
still evading and equivocating. its really amazing. Aesop took your supposed "knowledge" and slammed you in the face, bent you over and rammed it up your ass.
Deleteyour comeback?
you attempt to ridicule people for following FEMA advice and having at least a month of stored food and supplies! you're such a sad little man. the very thought of things not continuing normally cause you such fear that you refuse to prepare in case of emergencies.
but i won't get mad. i'll simply ask you to answer the question. stop running. stop attempting to change the subject and simply answer the fucking question.
FEMA advises people to store a month of food. This is a very intelligent idea, and one I have personally followed. I certainly wouldn't ridicule people who follow that advice. I also wouldn't ridicule people who realize there are problems in the world that could have very negative consequences. Contrary to your statements, I too have such feelings.
DeleteI will, however, mock people who spend their lives constantly expecting the world to end, stockpiling piles and piles of gas masks and guns, and ignoring very real (but very mundane) crises to instead focus on extremely unrealistic ones (nuclear war or an I Am Legend-style Ebola outbreak) just because they are epic, dramatic, and give the people in question something to get excited over.
The majority of the world's problems aren't dramatic. They also most likely will not cause all of civilization to collapse in some SHTF/WROL/TETWAWKI/whatever new acronym you guys have managed to come up with during your latest session of mental masturbation event. I choose to focus on the *real* issues -- the ones that aren't dramatic. You, on the other hand, distract people from those issues by constantly "prepping" for end of the world scenarios that, while they may make for good movies or books, have a near-nil chance of actually happening.
Also, after following this site and the comments for a while, it would seem like you have some sort of sodomy fetish. Constant references to people/events "bending people over and ramming *insert event here* up their ass." You sure you don't have some sort of unconscious urge going on there?
(BTW, I answered the question in my post below. Just thought you might like to know.)
once. a while ago, most of the world's problems were "not dramatic". today? they're beyond dramatic. they're heartbreaking.
Deleteyou ask if i have a sodomy fetish? no. but let me ask you this. you emphasize "you guys love of guns"....do you have hoplophobia?
or are you feminine and hate the idea that there is a blog where guys go to to talk about traditional guy stuff. working out, hunting, guns, women we'd love to throw against the wall and fuck silly...that type of thing....along with military matters.
tell me honestly. why do you hate us? do we scare you? if so good. we trample the weak and hurdle the dead. you seem weak as water and from your conversation you're part of the walking dead. you just haven't been buried yet.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deleteused to like guns...so that means you don't anymore? interesting. additionally you say you were into the whole prepping thing when you were 16, looking for bugout bags and buying property? at 16? but five years later at 21 you came to the conclusion of "what was i thinking"????
Deleteuh. really? your time scale is kinda sketchy. i can't wait for you to elaborate! additionally you like F-16net? awesome! i did too until i realized and then came out against the F-35! i love their hate! it gets me more page views when some idiot rants. it does get old killing all their comments but its just part of the job of running this blogging house. oh and who is xander crews? never heard of her. oh and i have the scars, the ribbons, the flag and all the rest with being in the Corps. oh and do me a favor. capitalize Marine, Marine Corps or Corps. i'll let you slide this time....just don't do it again.
Yeah, I don't exactly think I'm going to elaborate any details to someone who posts this when someone disagrees with them:
Deletehttp://snafu-solomon.blogspot.com/2013/08/hey-sferrin.html
And in case you've forgotten, your entire rant with XanderCrews has been preserved here:
http://www.f-16.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=25424&start=30
Up until page five. We're still waiting for the "piece" you were promising, as well as for you to use your magic IP technologiez to find out that he's from Australia and send him your "message."
sferrin? is that who you're talking about! that son of a bitch has been banned from more websites than i can count. additionally, i stand by this. the blog i run is a private enterprise. its a passion. its not public property! if you, he, she or anyone else doesn't like then simply go elsewhere! its really that simple! but no! instead you bastards want to try and run up a flag and bitch and moan to fellow cry babies at F-16net! amazing!
Deletemy first instinct was to simply trash this. but its too funny! i can't even get mad at ya. i simply marvel at your attempt to get supporters to aid your side! start a new thread. because just like slowman, and sferrin and others will come to realize. THIS IS MY HOUSE BITCH!
"I just like to get my info from sites like F-16.net "
DeleteLMAO!!! Thats says everything right there. Talk about a giant circlejerk of corporate LMT sycophant fuckhattery that goes on there. You might as well be reading from a LMT brochure.
I just added an Ambient Weather WR-335 ADVENTURER2 Emergency radio with solar and hand crank charger, plus iPhone recharger to my bug out bag to go with the N95 rated masks I have. No particular reason...
ReplyDeleteAll in all, I think the only way to prepare for this is to stay clean and keep anti-septic cleaners close to you along with staying healthy. There isn't much else you could besides not going out of your home and barricading yourself in... on second thought I'm going to buy some more emergency food stock and study up on gardening.
I wish all of my fellow preppers the best and may the odds be ever in your favor!
doing an inventory as we speak. topping off gear late tonight early am and simply going to use this as a dry run if everything works out and as a you non-ants should have prepared if it doesn't.
DeleteHonestly, this is what the whole kerfluffle is all about. People with a doomsday fetish playing around with disaster porn, along with a serious case of a hero complex (or a domination complex, depending on the person), and compensatory gun nuttery.
DeleteIt's just about the only explanation for why people would go "zOMG the world is about to end! break out teh gunz!" as soon as a single patient with a disease is isolated (disregarding the fact that the very same kind of thing has happened dozens of times before with no long-term consequences), whilst simultaneously ignoring diseases such as the measles, which have reproduction rates up to *eighteen times* higher than ebola (r-value of 18 vs an r-value of 1) and are actually a major problem due to people deciding that "self-taught" morons are more intelligent than doctors and choosing to forgo vaccination.
Honestly, if you want to get preachy about a disease, complain about people breaking down herd immunity by not getting vaccinated. That's a bigger issue than Ebola in the United States will ever be.
And no, you can't pretend to be Jean-Claude Van Damme when you're ranting about that issue. Sorry to deflate your bubble.
and you evade the issue instead of addressing it head on.
Deleteyou can talk all the shit you want but how did medical doctors from the US end up getting infected in africa? they were following all decontamination procedures (according to them) yet they still got sick! additionally the WHO has said that this epidemic is unusual because previous runs have burnt themselves out before reaching population centers.
so again, without attempting to play arm chair psychologist, tell us all how those people got infected if its so hard to get infected.
How did they end up getting infected?
DeleteMaybe because sanitation standards are so much lower in the third world than in the United States? It's quite common for doctors in hospitals in areas like West Africa to not follow the most stringent safety protocols (they definitely don't have BSL IV standards...). Combine that with the fact that doctors handle dead bodies which, more often than not, have been excreting bodily fluids for days prior to the expiration of the patient, and it's not difficult to understand why two of them got it.
Also, you're arguing that point as if a large proportion of doctors in West Africa were infected. Doctors without Borders has sent hundreds of doctors to West Africa to deal with the Ebola outbreak. Those two that were infected represent a minority. If two doctors were infected out of, say, four that were sent, then you *might* have a point. When you consider that the total number doctors who were infected represent less than one percent of those who were sent to the infected area, and then you consider the two points I made above, the argument really starts to fall apart.
And yes, the infection has "broke ground" as it were by reaching population centers. This would be a bigger deal if it wasn't for the fact that the reason it has done so is mostly to do with the unsanitary burial practices, consumption of bushmeat, and distrust of Western medicine (which causes people to attempt to cure their family members in their own homes, without *any* protective gear).
And I'll stop attempting to play armchair psychologist when you stop playing armchair medical professional.
Bill Shawyer
DeleteI. Medical supplies even as basic as gloves are low.
2. It's hot over there, so you can't always put on your protective gear while treating hundreds of dying patents.
Bill,
DeleteSo you think it is unreasonable to have some food, medical supplies, and other provisions stockpiled and the means to defend it? (which means firearms obviously and other like minded people)
Or is that just "doomsday porn"?
There are plenty of us bitching about the breaking down of herd immunity. I'm one of those preppers that believes in the benefits of vaccinations, and that a proactive prepper should have his/her vaccines updated.
Anyways, stay classy
"Sanitation standards" have fuck-all to do with how a virus infected people who were fully following CDC guidelines and being sprayed liberally with bleach decon solution got infected, because working in a country where they shit in a hole and never wash their hands doesn't magically make splash goggles, N95 masks, and tyvek coveralls permeable to a virus.
ReplyDeleteAnybody claiming otherwise is on the mental level of a Special Olympics contestant arguing that he can't lose because he's wearing his Magic Sneakers.
But let's check the videotape:
NBCNews, from July 28th:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/two-americans-stricken-deadly-ebola-virus-liberia-n166281
"...it’s not clear precisely how Brantly and Writebol were infected. Both used personal protective equipment, which includes a full body coverall, multiple layers of gloves, goggles and face protection.
"Our team has followed to the letter all of the protocols for safety that were developed by the CDC and WHO,” [spokeshole] told NBC News. “At this time we have not been able to confirm 100 percent the method of contagion,” she added.
Brantly was treating patients; Writebol was working to help doctors and other health workers get in and out of their protective gear, [spokeshole] said. That would include spraying them down with a chlorine solution and then stripping off and disposing of every piece of gear.
“Obviously it is of great concern for us,” [spokeshole] said. “We are working closely with CDC and WHO to investigate. It is just an incredibly contagious disease.”
So the virulence of the pathogen, the ease of contagion, and the inadequacy of the CDC guidelines to deliver functional safety to those working in the medical profession, amongst the outbreak, has only been publicly known to everyone for over two solid months.
And the guy in Dallas isn't the first person at risk to bring the disease here. He's more like the 20th in the US, and maybe the 50th worldwide. He just happens to be the first one in the US to succeed.
Maybe a quarter of the false alarms were reported, until someone evidently decided that the media ought to STFU.
The CDC was being "economical" about revealing the incidents as far back as mid-July, and it's possible that all the networks, simultaneously and spontaneously decided to all stop covering those false alarms, which is precisely what they did stop doing. Just like it's possible to hit the Powerball every week for a year.
We've been bullshitted on this from the media and CDC, and it continues, with the asstard in Dallas slobbering the same "Remain Calm. All is well!!" happygas, but the fact that there's a guy who made it past the airport/airline checks, and was walking around contagious for multiple days, and potentially infected hundreds of people, despite a medical evaluation midway after becoming symptomatic, remains a fact, and highlights why this will continue to spread every time it gets here, or anywhere.
In as early as a few days (Oct 4th-5th), the first of any second tier victims may start showing up. Hopefully there aren't any. But hope ain't a plan.
And we won't know we're clear from just this one incident until 21 days after the last person potentially infected is symptom-free after a full 21 days eval and quarantine. Which is going to be nearly Halloween, even if no one else comes up symptomatic. 28 cases and 8 deaths in Nigeria came from one guy, who they suspected was contagious from the moment he arrived and collapsed at the airport.
Meanwhile, every other person arriving from the same region as the Dallas Patient Zero is another potential carrier, until someone gets a clue, and shuts off the pipeline from Ebola Central.
That's not some fapping-to-the-apocalypse death wish, it's the reality on the ground, in Dallas, Atlanta, NYC, and every other city with an international airport and flights from Ebolaville.
The problem with the points people are making against Bill are they're trying to deal in absolutes. Just because they claim they followed CDC procedures in Africa doesn't mean they didn't screw up. Remember, they're tired, understaffed, and working in awful conditions. Maybe they handled an infected piece of equipment without realizing it. People are people, they mess up sometimes. But only 1% of Doctors Without Borders personnel have gotten it.
ReplyDeleteRegarding whether its airborne or not: if an infected person were to cough blood directly into your eye, then yes it is technically airborne. Is that incredibly small probability scenario worth categorizing Ebola as airborne: no, because then you'd have to list ever virus and bacteria as airborne, including HIV. Condoms are 99% effective at stopping STDs from spreading, meaning even with a condom there is still a 1% chance of infection (assuming your partner is infected, which lowers risk even further). But that 1% chance doesn't mean we cancel sex for the human race.
So in crazy rare scenarios could this be TECHNICALLY airborne, yes. Will some people, mostly healthcare professionals win that 1% lottery and catch it despite following all CDC procedures? Yes. Will it cause a mass outbreak among the general population of the US or any industrialized nation. No.
Regarding mutation, I'm still waiting for HIV to go airborne like fear mongers were saying it would.
Gotcha.
DeleteSo the hundred plus healthcare workers in Africa who've already died from it are just an unfortunate string of wildly improbably coincidences?
Brantly's testimony yesterday before Congress and on national TV noted that he was vomiting blood, and was actively incontinent of stool (AKA shitting his guts out - literally, with Ebola). That's a later stage of the disease.
All of that flies and splashes around several yards away (the literature says up to something like 10 yards), and even the act of wiping your ass afterwards leaves virus load, among other things, on your hands, thence your clothes, and then on any linens you're lying on/in.
That's why splash goggles, hoods, and booties, rather than just gown, mask, and gloves.
And noting that "people slip up", as though that should make us feel safer??
You figure that people will only "slip up" in Africa, because Tribal Magic?
Or will people also "slip up" at the CDC?
And the airport?
And a Dallas hospital?
Because Human Beings?
The "Remain Calm. All is well!" line of hogwash is oversubscribed, and current sales are dropping off as reality sinks in.
I'd advise getting a new gig if that's your best defense.
This is why entire wards are infectious once you start treating Ebola patients, and why we build new ones out of plastic sheeting: so you can burn the whole thing afterwards.
Why have only 2 American doctors being infected, of hundreds? Please explain how that is the case.
DeleteHundreds of doctors?
DeleteYou wish.
It's a bare handful. A dozen or two, max.
Brantly testified to Congress and on national TV yesterday carried live that in late July, when he was infected, he was one of only two doctors in the entire southern half of Liberia working with Ebola patients.
So far, a number of native African doctors have died, and they didn't have that many to start with, making their loss even more critical.
Up until this thing moved beyond 2000 cases, health care workers were 10% of all cases and fatalities in the Ebola outbreak.
Now, most of them have gone home, and essentially told the officials they're not coming back until this outbreak is over, or they get actual effective protective equipment. So only the do-gooders from outside remain, and CDC "best practices" is failing them too.
Note that despite a full recovery, even Brantly, now theoretically immune to Ebola, isn't busting any hernias trying to get back there either.