via Fox News.
This is probably the closing gambit before operations begin to clean up the battlefield, repair civilian infrastructure and formally put the region under Russian control.
NATO is meeting but in my opinion the endgame is already in motion.
UNITED NATIONS – Ukraine's U.N. ambassador says a convoy of Russian tanks and armored vehicles has moved from the resort town of Novoazovsk toward the key port of Mariupol and was stopped by Ukrainian forces and civilians.Again. This is just a common sense move (if true) by the Russians to consolidate their positions before a harsh winter sets in.
Yuriy Sergeyev told a news conference that the convoy started moving Thursday morning and "the fight is still going on right now."
He said the convoy from Novoazovsk, which was captured by heavily armed Russian-backed separatists last week, had four tanks, three armored vehicles and about 50 soldiers, and "most probably" was a reconnaissance mission to test Mariupol's military defenses.
Novoazovsk lies along the road linking Russia to Mariupol and onto Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in March.
Sergeyev said Russia is "most probably" trying to build a land corridor to Crimea.
This is probably the closing gambit before operations begin to clean up the battlefield, repair civilian infrastructure and formally put the region under Russian control.
NATO is meeting but in my opinion the endgame is already in motion.
Another of those Russian ghost columns ... Note that they always say "convoy of russian tanks" leaving it up to the reader to decide wether only the tanks are of russian making or if their crew as well is russian ... nice way to disinform ... I don't expect any assault, battle or closing in on Mariupol anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand i expect a lot of hysteria being developped by Kiev over the days to come.
Besides, even if the info were true, it's 50 blokes in four tanks who move from place A to place B, without any red light going off at NATO. I'm pretty sure, Anders Fogh Rasmussen would already be screaming murder if any NATO member state intelligence showed anything even remotely convincing !
My mistake ... actually Rasmussen is screaming murder, but has no evidence to show ... what a surprise !
ReplyDeleteConsidering all the equipment the Ukrainians have abandoned...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PhoK1MAGgaA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jYiQbzD4hZ4
The Separatists have no lack of arms. I only wish I could get my hands on some of the stuff they have abandoned. :/
Russians providing C4ISTAR, logistics and a hard back stop to rebels sounds a lot more likely than them actually fighting, beyond artillery?
ReplyDeleteRead something about a Loyalist tank regiment eating a grad whilst camping
Ever wondered why seperatist always capture a lot more heavy equipment like tanks BTR and BMPs, and very little trucks and UAZ 4x4s ... When the ukrainian soldiers are abandoning positions they flee with trucks and cars or whatever they got.
ReplyDeleteWhy
Because the logistical supply chain of the ukrainian army is from the beginning of the operation a big poor organized mess especially fuel supply.
They massed so much heavy equipment without proper supply.
All this pictures of destroyed ukrainian equipment, but how many destroyed fuel trucks have you seen.
Ever seen ukrainian military field hospitals near the battle area .. They just carry the wounded in the nearest civilian hospital. They are many other examples.
Also questionable how much gear was destroyed by crews prior to fleeing vs actual combat .
DeleteYes now everything not Ukrainian army is declared Russian ,with no evidence what so ever.
Ukraine is done for. The far-right batallions are already pissed at the possibility of a cease-fire and peace talks and threatening to rebel if Kiev accepts it.
ReplyDeleteI will be truly surprised if it goes thru with all the internal opposition.
I agree with Sol' that this is pretty logic move of Russians, they try to create a corridor to Crimea. Supplying of peninsula by sea is highly insufficient, even the people why try to get there for vacation (as many gov. workers were ordered to spend vacation on Crimea, there was even funny document how the black market in Russia prosper on selling "certification of spending vacation on Crimea" ) had to wait for ferry for 48h! Not to mention food, power, water... everything. The grand bridge that Putin promise will take many years to build and will cost huge cash. So the best way is to capture corridor from Russia to Crimea.
ReplyDeleteLook at them map couple of hundret kilometers left. Russia has no interest in this
DeleteSo far fighting continues as Ukrainian goverment the one that actually resigned doesn't want peace(many of them fear that people will be looking for their heads soon so are playing a stupid all or nothing game that will cost Ukrainians lots of blood. Nato torpedoed(with false hopes of millitary asistance) any chance of peacefoul resolution that Poroshenko might have agreed upon .
Western media didn't put a lot of attention the the proposed / point peace plan that was actually quite sensible.http://rt.com/files/news/2d/1d/70/00/7.jpg
How to tell when Russia actually invades Ukraine:
Deletehttp://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/08/how-can-you-tell-whether-russia-has.html
Ha ha ha... oh they put an attention ot that plan, even the halfbrain would notice that every point is an trap.
DeleteShas I'm afraid you really do need to look at a map ... As Mr T said land corridor to Crimea is total BS PR-operation by Kiev spin doctors !
ReplyDeleteGeography, the folly of many a man.
DeleteI think Hecate that I'm not the only one who need to look at map. Mariupol is main port on Azow sea, the communications hub. Thru Mariupol run the main road that connect Russia with Crimea, the E58 and it's in second main hub in the region Melitopol turn in to E105.
DeleteWhat is the other reason to send Russian troops there? It long way from fighting zone around Donetsk and Lugansk. Russians did not turn north they push on Mariupol.
If supplying the Crimea by sea is problematic we in the UK must be truly f*cked. Anybody heard from New Zealand lately? Yes? Good. They have the Crimea and they have the cash to put in the infrastructure. To think the Russians haven't had this planned for a long time is naive and to think they haven't thought about supplying the Crimea says you don't know Russians.
ReplyDeleteA second route to Crimea would be useful, but really Russia risking war with NATO just for that bit of extra space I don't think it would be worth the risk. Lots of talk of it being a warm water port but that only really pays commerically not militarily because Turkey could close the Bosphorus at any time. Is the Black Sea Fleet really a threat to NATO in a real war? No.
The cat is out of the bag over Ukraine. Russia is far from perfect but some on our side have got to recognise that this situation is as much more of our making than Russia's who is just reacting. The EU (Germany) wanted a cheap market where it could dump goods (and remove a small amount of competition) but without having to actually take the Ukraine into the EU which would have left the east of the country, the part that actually makes money exporting to Russia, without its industry (the EU strategy of Cash and Close). While the US wanted a military; one that threatened Russia and was one more step to towards China's back door. How did they do this? By levering anti-Russia feeling in Western Ukraine and appealing to the greed of their professional and political classes. And we are then supposed to be surprise that Russia is pissed? And then we are shocked that take advantage of incompetence to take back Crimea? Really? FFS.
Well you can say that military presence of NATO forces on Crimea is the same threat to Russia like Black Fleet to NATO. There are NATO bases on Black Sea as Russian ones.
DeleteI'm sure that Russians got this whole planed long time ago and they just take that plane from desk when the time came. I read some voices here that this whole operation was an spontaneous action of surprised Russians... that for me is worth of solid laugh. But supplying the Crimea is more complicated then you think. Every energy and fresh water for peninsula go from mainland, Crimea is not self sufficient in anything. That's why even when those "referendum" was organized under helpful eye of Russian army the transport of power generators were moving to Crimea. But without solid energy line how long you can work on oil fueled generators? Also the fresh water, there are some desalination station in Sevastopol but that's not even a 10% of needed water. And the only way to supply Crimea is thru ferry that is as I mention highly inefficient or ships... and both ways are just economical nightmare. That's why Russians want to build bridge over Kerch, because without any type of land route they will put a shit tons of cash just to supply Crimea with basic needs not to mention to develop it.
You really don't need to do much work to spread anti-Russian felling in country's or nations that were under Soviet control. They work for that for many generations, hate just root in your soul against them.
Um. I have a modicum of knowledge when it comes to logistics and utilities so I think I have some grasp of the problems involved. Is the Crimea as we speak running out of anything? Is there a humanitarian criss? The Russians have a supply route which isn't ideal, but now they are in position of possessing the Crimea as I said they can work on the infrastructure like a bridge across the straits. We in the West seem to underestimate or wilfully not understand that the majority of Russians actually like being Russian and want to defend their cultural identity. But to think Putin made a grab for Crimea solely on those grounds with that being plans in place to keep the region running after retaking is not to understand how Russians think. Or do we just assume anybody who isn't Western must be by extension not competent? They live their lives to a different set of priorities. Many Russians don't want to live under Ukraine rule either so in runs both ways. As for the referendum well I doubt not many with a pro-Kiev stance bothered to vote; but I also doubt they were in a majority either. Or do we only believe in votes that go our own way?
DeleteI don't understand you opening remarks. A proto-NATO member Ukraine would be more of a security problem for Russia than the Black Sea Fleet can ever be to NATO. Even if Turkey were to leave NATO and become say an Islamic state Russian warships would be bottled in.
I mean that Sevastopol as NATO base is the same danger for Russians on Black Sea as port in Burgas or Konstanca. Not to mention Turkey, the NATO member's posses some 70% of Black Sea shore so in hypothetical conflict as you mention Turkey would close Bosporus and the Black Sea Fleet would be butchered without too much problem. The military aspect of Ukraine in NATO is just an excuse for some hard head putinists as the Ukraine would be not member of NATO then, now and probably in the future.
DeleteI perfectly understand how Russians think, having them as neighbor and sworn enemy of my nation give me a "privilege" to observe them from first row. Also for couple of years I work with them and that give me additional inside views how they react for some situations.
Is there are problems in Crimea with supply, yes there is. Price for everything goes up, the cost of transport are huge and if you want to sell stuff you need to get prices up. The bridge I mention will be ready (if it will be build) after couple of years. Before that Russians will need to pomp shit tons of money in to Crimea to just keep it on surface.
If Russians don't like to live in Ukraine, move from it. Don't put an armed insurrection, call your big brother to help and drown Ukraine in blood. You think this is the only way for people to say that they don't like to live in one country? To grab weapons and shoot anybody who don't agree with them?
But Ukraine doesn't have to be in NATO to allow NATO (aka the US) to use it's airspace or ports or whatever.
DeleteNo I don't think armed insurrection is the only way nor do I think those that took that action didn't feel compelled to do so. As I said about that proposed legislation on the Russia language even though it didn't get passed the court the fact that it was tabled at all indicates some anti-Russian school of thought within the echelons of the Ukrainian political classes. As I said if the EU had got its deal unopposed it would have been the heavy industry in the predominantly Russian facing east that would have lost out. The parts of the Ukraine that are in insurrection are only part of Ukraine because of decisions in the Soviets era. Perhaps the minority in the east who don't want to be Russian should move west? Personally I blame the West for putting Ukraine under strain. The EU especially for expanding towards Russia. I even question now whether a reunited Germany was a good thing. It would have been better for all if Central Europe had been Finlandized for a few decades and perhaps thought given to helping Russia into the European family instead of what has happened? I am beginning to miss the Cold War.
Lad, the borders of central Europe are decisions of Soviet era. Finland don't look the same as before the Soviets, Poland is put in to absolutely different territory, Germany lost also large part of it's own before the war. The infamous old Königsberg is now an military exclave that's hang over Baltic States and Poland like sword of Damocles. Belarus was create as country from nothing. No to mention whole Caucasian nations, even China have different borders because Soviets.
DeleteBorders are borders, yeah after the Yugoslavian wars we receive a couple of more borders. But from the end of WWII nobody invade other country and take it part from themselves. This is an aggressive move that we can't compare to anything in Europe after the war.
Steve some wise man tell me once, Poles will never get along with Russians... Poles are Europeans, Russians are Asians. Russia don't want to be part of Europe family, it's not even related to it in form of mentality or culture. They are an weird mix that don't belong to any "family". They are just... Russians.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletehttp://eurasianintelligence.org/news.php?new=51&num
ReplyDeleteour "allies"...
i case we'll be marching towards west and not east, i hope the hypocrites from EU/NATO won't wonder why, as we most likely warned them about all kinds of possibilities...
Let me guess... shit hit the fan when Viktor Orbán take power?
Deletehe just took it to the absurd level, all this mess intensified after the "revolution" in '89 when "democracy" came in...
Deletewell, as you may know we have a looooooong tradition with the "hungarians"
they have all rights possible as every citizen, they want privileges and not only..
i hope one day the EU and US will understand the need of moving them back to their country so that this region which is basically a gate, could focus on more important things and not disputes based on sci-fi history versions written by steven spielberg...
unfortunately their propaganda is strong and the EU and US since they ran in the '50s - '60s...and some day we might have to face both west and east when the breaking point of tolerance will come...
to put it more simple, they want to cause a Kosovo scenario in the middle of Romania and then ask everyone to jump on us to "save" them from the "agressors".
Deletelike in '90 when a romanian that was killed and in the western media was presented as hungarian....and western reporters were station in a building on that street 3 days before the thing started...sooo yea...
that was when they tried the Kosovo move, and everyone failed, them, the west and the russians.
Ehhh... this is really mess up. Like we don't have enough problems in the east. I heard from one Hungarian that Orbán and his men are like cancer that destroy Hungary from inside, that huge loan from Russia for him was an shock. The Visegrad group start to fall apart as strong wall against Russian politics and bulwark of EU.
DeleteI hope that long friendship between Hungary, Romania and Poland can be maintain in the future. But I think I'm too naive...
hungary won't change regarding Romania, i can bet my life on this, even the serbs and bulgarians are open to proper, civilised relations, we have infrastructure programs with them and stuff....also the russians are interested to keep the fire going
Deletei could keep going forever on this subject
It's look like case fire will be in action on Ukraine from today. We will see for how long.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, highly disturbing.
The Estonian government inform that officer of Estonian Internal Security ( counterintelligence ) was kidnapped near Luhamaa border crossing by unidentified persons that came from Russia. The officer was in unit that was tasked with fighting against near border crimes. He was taken inside Russian territory.
http://news.postimees.ee/2911015/estonian-security-police-officer-kidnapped-taken-to-russia-at-gunpoint
... this is very, very disturbing.