via Defense News...
According to publicly announced plans, the MoD intends to reduce the GSDF’s tank force from 740 to about 300 over the next decade, with most being concentrated on the main islands of Hokkaido in the north and Kyushu in the south. According to this scenario, some 200 to 300 MCVs will be procured and airlifted to islands where they are needed.Hmmm.
The MoD’s Technical Research & Development Institute has been developing the MCV since at least 2008; it displayed a fourth prototype in October 2013. Testing is scheduled to begin shortly and if all goes well, the GSDF will receive its first units in 2016. The MCV is being built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
The plan is proceeding smoothly, according to MoD spokesman Tsuyoshi Hirata, who said the deployment schedule and perhaps final number of MCVs will be reviewed over the next five years. The announced figures could change, he said.
“Based on the current Mid-Term Defense Program [MTDP] issued last December [2013], we plan to introduce 99 MCVs by the end of [fiscal] 2018. We have in mind to introduce about 300 MCVs,” he said.
The MoD plans to deploy the MCV in several rapidly deployable basic operational units (rapid deployment divisions and/or brigades) and rapid deployment regiments that will be formed.
I like the vehicle but the doctrine seems suspect.
What is wrong in the doctrine, sir?
ReplyDeletethey're touting strategic mobility above all, but its craziness. first transporting 30 ton vehicles by air is a fools errand. yeah you can do it but you suck up all your transports to add not much combat power to a given situation. the real answer is high speed ships and since the Japanese plan on using civilian ships in a move to get armored vehicles to the outer islands, then why the switch to wheeled IFV's? they can use the ships to transport tanks....real tanks.
Deleteso while they're talking strategic mobility the doctrine is suspect as is the implementation. i like the vehicle but if they're using air transportability to justify it then they're screwed up.
Solomon
DeleteAbe-san wants to send GSDF to Taiwan and to North Korea, respectively. Hence the new found emphasis on airlift capability.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/10/08/national/new-japan-u-s-defense-guidelines-will-stress-global-reach/
New Japan-U.S. defense guidelines will stress global reach
Japan and the United States released an interim report Wednesday on revising their bilateral defense cooperation guidelines by the year’s end, in which they call for more global military cooperation between the two countries that will “benefit the (Asia-Pacific) region and beyond.”
Wednesday’s interim report indicates that U.S.-Japan military cooperation under the new guidelines will not be confined by geography, a major departure from the 1997 guidelines, and will emphasize the “global nature” of the Japan-U.S. military alliance.
For example, Japan could dispatch minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, if Japan’s oil imports were threatened by military action, according to Abe.
if its all about strategic reach to Taiwan or N. Korea then it makes even less sense. i don't understand the fascination with air power but the idea of transport planes flying in to an area where fast transport ships would get sunk is silliness to me.
Deleteplanes will get shot down. but even if they get thru you're still looking at an extremely small force at teh end of an extremely long logistics chain that is super fragile and can barely keep a reasonably sized combat force supplied during peacetime, much less one involved in combat operations.
i stick by my guns on this. it makes no sense.
Solomon
DeleteI will give you an illustration. The Abe administration is the first Japanese administration to express a military support for Taiwan in the event of a mainland invasion. In that case, it is critical that JGSDF send as many MCVs to Taiwan as possible to join the coastal landing denial force(MCV itself is specialized in landing denial role), and nothing can beat airlift in terms of delivery speed.
Another example is Japan's landing in North Korea to secure a suitable X-band radar site for Japan. Japanese defense ministry has been frustrated by Japan deployed X-band radar's inability to detect and track ballistic missiles early enough to attempt an interception, and seeks an independent ballistic missile early warning from China and North Korea, located in North Korea. Once JGSDF marines land in North Korea, then MCVs need to be brought in to defend the territory they captured.
Abe administration's emphasis on airlift of armored vehicles don't make sense if you think within the context of JGSDF's traditional roles of the territorial defense. The airlift emphasis makes a perfect sense only when you understand what Abe's really trying to do, to build an America-style power projection force.
it still doesn't track with common sense. first, Japanese forces would need to deploy to Taiwan ahead of an invasion. if they don't then you're talking about flying in forces to take part in an active defense on the beaches? really? seriously? no way in hell transports will be able to fly in because air defenses on mainland China will be able to shoot them down. thats not even taking into account fighter aircraft from the mainland and air defense destroyers deployed in the waters around the area.
DeleteBesides. everyone knows that if China was to make a real push to annex Taiwan there isn't anything short of nuclear war to prevent that. if done properly (and i'm talking about with surprise) then it would be over within hours or a couple of days max.
so defense of Taiwan is out.
as far as X-band radars are concerned thats a totally different issue that can't be solved by an invasion of N. Korea that would have even broader implications than we're talking about here. i fully believe that the S. Korean people, who have the same veiw that you do toward the Japanese, would demand a fight. additionally the Japanese are technologically advanced and can place a floating radar picket or simply place an installation in a position that would allow coverage.
that reason is just not plausible either.
i find it strange that S. Koreans view the Japanese threat so strongly. they're totally conccerned about maintaining their current borders and i see no indication that they're attempting to expand them. as far as Japan expanding the treaty with the US outside the region that's just the Japanese doing what we've been asking all the major Western countries to do. STEP UP TO THE PLATE! japan has the tech, the skill and the know how to help solve many of the world's problems. they're as welcome as the UK, Australia, Canada, Poland, Netherlands and others to help where needed to put down crazies and other lunatics.
the Japanese aren't the problem. the problem is holding onto a history that should be just that...history.
Solomon
Delete> no way in hell transports will be able to fly in because air defenses on mainland China will be able to shoot them down.
Japanese transports will be flying along the Okinawa island chain to approach from the Pacific side, then land on the eastern side of Taiwan. They will be safe from PLA SAMs.
> a totally different issue that can't be solved by an invasion of N. Korea
The Japanese GSDF landing would take place amid the chaos of the NK regime collapse, where the ROK troops in North Korea are busy fighting the regime remnants to cover the areas that the Japan seeks to control.
> additionally the Japanese are technologically advanced and can place a floating radar picket
The X-band radar is too heavy to float.
> or simply place an installation in a position that would allow coverage.
If such a place was available in Japan, you wouldn't have witnessed Japan begging the ROK for the GSOMIA agreement, which would have provided Japan with necessary radar data feed from its KAMD radars for needed early warning. Once Japan captures a nice spot in North Korea, then they no longer need to beg the ROK for early ballistic missile warning.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/asias-big-what-if-what-happens-if-kim-jong-un-no-more-11416
Finalizing an Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) would be the first steps. An ACSA would provide Japan’s Self-Defense Forces the ability to evacuate its citizens in the event of imminent conflict on the Korea Peninsula. The GSOMIA, which was almost agreed to before falling victim to domestic political whims in Seoul, would be a basis for information sharing on the North’s WMD and missile systems.
> i find it strange that S. Koreans view the Japanese threat so strongly.
1. Japan claims two ROK held islands, and claims that Japan can take military actions to recover them at will even with the Article 9 in place.
2. Even Russia frets about Japan invading to capture Russian held South Kurils. If Russia the mighty is afraid of Japanese militant invading, why wouldn't China and ROK not be afraid of Japan invading again?
> i see no indication that they're attempting to expand them.
Tell that to Russians and Koreans whose islands Japan claims.
@SlowMan
DeleteI trully hope that this are ideas that you come up on the spot on your own and not something you readed in korean newspaper or a korean defense forum.
"...I will give you an illustration. The Abe administration is the first Japanese administration to express a military support for Taiwan in the event of a mainland invasion. In that case, it is critical that JGSDF send as many MCVs to Taiwan as possible to join the coastal landing denial force(MCV itself is specialized in landing denial role), and nothing can beat airlift in terms of delivery speed..."
I seriusly doubt that Taiwanese agree to allow japanese troops deploy in their territory before chinese soldiers land in Taiwan. Simply put it will be very provocative and the communist han will see it as enough justification for invade Taiwan. If the PRC attack Taiwan they are going to destroy all airbases and airports, making sending MCVs by air impossible unless we make our transports make forced landings and that is a one way trip only. As far as I know any military action from Japan to help Taiwan will be in total cooperation with the US and the plans are that we provide support to the US Navy, like submarine hunting and logistics.
"...Another example is Japan's landing in North Korea to secure a suitable X-band radar site for Japan. Japanese defense ministry has been frustrated by Japan deployed X-band radar's inability to detect and track ballistic missiles early enough to attempt an interception, and seeks an independent ballistic missile early warning from China and North Korea, located in North Korea. Once JGSDF marines land in North Korea, then MCVs need to be brought in to defend the territory they captured..."
This idea sounds even more unlike in various levels so I am going to number them:
1 - Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that we japanese dont have X-band radars for detect ballistic missiles. I think that there is only 2 X-band radars in Japan that can do that are owned, built, operated and controled by the US and of course americans agree to share the intel from them with us.
2 - Lets supouse for a moment that I am wrong and Japan actually have X-Band radars that can detec ballistic but for some unkon reason keep it secret. You say that Japan can invade North Korea for install an X-band radar so it can detect ballistic missiles heading to Japan:
2.1 Are you impliying that the american X-band radars in Japan cant do it or that the US is not going to give any warnning to Japan?
2.2 What stop North Korea from firing all their ballistic missiles to Japan before the radar is operational? Also even if it become operational before they lauch their missiles Japan dont have enough SM-3 and patriot missiles for intercept a massive attack of hundreds of missiles.
2.3 After that what stop North Korea from mass thousands of tanks and miilions of soldiers and stomp a comparatively small and ligth force of japanese camping in their land? Or even more simple, mass a fraction of their ludicrously large number of artillery weapons and turn the place in a wasteland resembling the surface of the moon?
"...Even Russia frets about Japan invading to capture Russian held South Kurils. If Russia the mighty is afraid of Japanese militant invading, why wouldn't China and ROK not be afraid of Japan invading again?..."
Thanks to Abe Russia-Japan relations improved a lot. Both Russia and Japan want to keep the door open for an alliance because we both are worried about the PRC.
"...(Reuters) - Japan and Russia held their first joint defense and foreign ministers' meeting on Saturday and agreed to boost security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific as they both warily watch neighboring China's rising influence..."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/02/us-japan-russia-idUSBRE9A102G20131102
This only got cold after the events in Ukraine, with the economic sanctions to Russia, today an alliance looks less atractive to Japan because it will hurt our international trade.
@ mareo2
Delete> not something you readed in korean newspaper or a korean defense forum.
I actually read them off Japanese newspapers and blogs.
> I seriusly doubt that Taiwanese agree to allow japanese troops deploy in their territory before chinese soldiers land in Taiwan.
Of course they will, when the invasion begins.
> we make our transports make forced landings and that is a one way trip only.
The C2 has STOL capability.
> I think that we japanese dont have X-band radars for detect ballistic missiles.
They are available for purchase. After all, the US is desperately trying to sell some to the ROK against the ROK's reluctance, because of the ROK's existing SAM cooperation with Russia.
> Are you impliying that the american X-band radars in Japan cant do it
Japan-based X-band radars failed to detect the NK ICBM launch early enough back in April 2012, while they were visible on ROK ballistic missile radars some 43 seconds after launch. The X-band radar can increase its defection and tracking range if it knows where to focus its beams, but needs an early warming for that. This is when Japan began to pursue an GSOMIA agreement with the ROK, because the US gets a radar feed from Korean ballistic missile radars but cannot share them with Japan because of the nature of GSOMIA and Japan needed to get a radar feed directly from Korea.
The current THAAD deployment in Osan base fiasco is for the US to provide that X-band radar to Japan directly, because the X-band radar comes with the THAAD interceptor system. But Japan's best interest following NK regime collapse is served by placing a Japan-owned X-band radar somewhere in North Korea, to provide the deepest range coverage from mainland China launches.
> What stop North Korea from firing all their ballistic missiles to Japan before the radar is operational?
North Korea won't launch its missiles unless it is a some kind of regime collapse scenario, where it's "Let's all die together" kind of situation.
> After that what stop North Korea from mass thousands of tanks and miilions of soldiers and stomp a comparatively small and ligth force of japanese camping in their land?
NK troops would be too busy fighting the ROK troops around Pyongyang, and the US troops at its nuclear weapons depot.
> Thanks to Abe Russia-Japan relations improved a lot.
But Russia's heavily fortifying the Southern Kurils islands. You don't see this kind of fortification even in Russia's Eastern European borders. Russia has a genuine fear of a Japanese invasion. People outside of East Asia do not understand why Russia, China, and Korea collectively fear a Japanese invasion.
"...I actually read them off Japanese newspapers and blogs..."
DeleteIn my opinion this are very flawed ideas, I am surprised that you think that it make sense, so I will thank you if you can provide links to the newspaper articles and blogs so can I tell them what I think of their IQ level to the intelectual author/s of this ideas.
"...Of course they will, when the invasion begins..."
By then is going to be too late. High ranking officers of the Taiwanese military regularly make news headlines about how they sold their country defense secrets. it seems they have no faith that they can hold the line until the US-Japan alliance come to the rescue.
"...The C2 has STOL capability..."
A lot of aircraft are STOL but that dont means tha tthey cand land and take of anywhere it only means that they can use a shorter runaway. C2 weigth 61 tons + 26 tons from the MCV + fuel. Taiwan is small,crowded and if invaded likely under attacs aiming at anything that can remotely look like a provisional airfield. Very hot landing and that "if" we can open a safe air corridor. It certainly sounds to me like a one way trip only.
"...They are available for purchase. After all, the US is desperately trying to sell some to the ROK against the ROK's reluctance, because of the ROK's existing SAM cooperation with Russia..."
Problem solved, we buy american radars, no invasion required. But why buy the radars iin the first place if the US already have two and share the info with us? Use the money for buy more interceptor missiles sounds better.
"...Japan-based X-band radars failed to detect the NK ICBM launch early enough back in April 2012, while they were visible on ROK ballistic missile radars some 43 seconds after launch. The X-band radar can increase its defection and tracking range if it knows where to focus its beams, but needs an early warming for that. This is when Japan began to pursue an GSOMIA agreement with the ROK, because the US gets a radar feed from Korean ballistic missile radars but cannot share them with Japan because of the nature of GSOMIA and Japan needed to get a radar feed directly from Korea..."
You are saying that if missiles head to Japan, the US is not going to tell to Japan despite Japan saying that is willing to intercept missiles heading to the US, because ROK a country that is no where close to saying that if North Korea fire missiles to the US they are going to intercept them, asked the US to not to tell to Japan. Despite the fact that Japan host american bases and is difficult to confirm if the missiles aim to a japanese city or an american base until it get very close to the target and not telling Japan so it can fire interceptors can end killing not only millions of japanese civilians but also several tousands of american. Sounds like some kind of complicity in genocide,
"...The current THAAD deployment in Osan base fiasco is for the US to provide that X-band radar to Japan directly, because the X-band radar comes with the THAAD interceptor system..."
Sorry, but I dont get how is that related. Do you blame Japan for that?
"...But Japan's best interest following NK regime collapse is served by placing a Japan-owned X-band radar somewhere in North Korea, to provide the deepest range coverage from mainland China launches..."
I think that is in the best interest of us japanese better try to deploy satellites for early warning of ballistic missiles launches and deepening our allaince with the US. Invading North Korea and making South Korea and China more angry with us sounds dangerous and stupid.
mareo2
Delete> In my opinion this are very flawed ideas
Flawed or not, it represents the ideas of Japan's rightwingers in power, who are Japan's prime minister, defense minister, head of LDP, etc.
> It certainly sounds to me like a one way trip only.
The C-2 will be lighter after unloading its cargo. Take-off won't require a longer distance than the landing distance.
> Problem solved, we buy american radars, no invasion required.
Same American X-band radars deployed in Japan were unable to detect North Korean ICBM launched in April 2012 fast enough.
> why buy the radars iin the first place if the US already have two and share the info with us?
Because those existing X-band radars couldn't detect North Korean ICBMs fast enough to attempt an interception.
Why do I have to repeat this so many times? The X-band radars deployed in Japan, regardless of ownership, cannot detect North Korean ICBM launches fast enough to attempt an interception, and must get an early warning to be able to focus its beams and search further.
> You are saying that if missiles head to Japan, the US is not going to tell to Japan despite Japan saying that is willing to intercept missiles heading to the US
The US is prohibited from sharing the ballistic missile radar feed it gets from the ROK with anyone else and vise versa.
It actually requires frequent drills with those radar data feed to actually be able to intercept North Korean ICBMs in combat, getting the feed while the missile is on their way doesn't work.
> Sorry, but I dont get how is that related. Do you blame Japan for that?
The US is trying to save Japan by trying to feed Japanese missile defense system with the X-band radar feed from Osan, because Korean's won't give it to Japan.
> I think that is in the best interest of us japanese better try to deploy satellites for early warning of ballistic missiles launches and deepening our allaince with the US.
1. The US may or may not get a THAAD deployed in Osan to be able to provide Japan with early warning. Remember that Solomon wants the US to get out of Osan and deny Japan the critical early warning.
2. Early warning satellites cannot provide detailed positional and speed data needed for the Japan based X-band radar to guide interceptors.
"...Flawed or not, it represents the ideas of Japan's rightwingers in power, who are Japan's prime minister, defense minister, head of LDP, etc..."
Delete1 - Send 30 light tanks to Taiwan in a one way trip at a huge cost in military assets. Why? For PR? I think that we can help more at strategic level with the JMSDF.
2 - Invade DPRK for install a radar risking a rain of missiles on Japan, earning more hate from ROK and more paranoia from the PRC?
The MCV is for defend Japan but you try to sell the idea that is part of plan for fight in other countries, your examples sounds far fetched to me.
"...The C-2 will be lighter after unloading its cargo. Take-off won't require a longer distance than the landing distance..."
The Taiwanese practice use highways for emergency airfields with light fighters like the F-16. But can you please elaborate how a several times heavier C-2 fully loaded medium transport is not going to crumble an improvised runaway? I may be wrong but i think that C-2 as not being designed for such kind of operations like the Hercules and Atlas.
"...Why do I have to repeat this so many times?..."
If you say it clearly once I dont need to ask.
"...The X-band radars deployed in Japan, regardless of ownership, cannot detect North Korean ICBM launches fast enough to attempt an interception, and must get an early warning to be able to focus its beams and search further..."
Then we (US-JAPAN) need to find an alternative, because ROK is uncoperative to the idea of help save perhaps millions of lives.
"...The US is prohibited from sharing the ballistic missile radar feed it gets from the ROK with anyone else and vise versa..."
Fair enough from a lawyer point of view. The US will judge the politics if many americans die and Human history and world opinion will judge the moral if ROK allow millions die.
"...The US is trying to save Japan by trying to feed Japanese missile defense system with the X-band radar feed from Osan, because Korean's won't give it to Japan..."
No, I think that you are misspresenting the situation here, the americans are trying to protect their people first and japanese second, the point of hosting US bases for reinforce the alliances revolve around this. You want sell the idea that is only a ROK-Japan dispute and the US is trying to mediate for Japan, but ROK is endangering US military assests in Japan that help to protect not only Japan but also ROK, Taiwan, etc.., like the US 7th fleet HQ in Yokosuka and the III Marine Expeditionary Force in Okinawa. The cold fact is that ROK lack of cooperation in the US security architecture in the PACOM is indirectly endangering many countries that rely on the US for avoid being stomped by countries like the PRC. You are entirely ignoring the big picture whille trying to convince that Japan is a threat.
"...1. The US may or may not get a THAAD deployed in Osan to be able to provide Japan with early warning. Remember that Solomon wants the US to get out of Osan and deny Japan the critical early warning..."
I understand why he is angry, ROK put his comrades in danger despite ROK being protected by the US. Japan have no rigth to tell the US or ROK what to do, so I think that try to get Japan involved in a US-ROK dispute in Korea is wrong.
"...2. Early warning satellites cannot provide detailed positional and speed data needed for the Japan based X-band radar to guide interceptors..."
Again if ROK dont want to cooperate in helping to keep the US security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region then we (US-Japan) have to find an alternative, as Solomon often say radar technology dont remain static, it keep improving.
mareo2
Delete> Then we (US-JAPAN) need to find an alternative
Which is the Osan-deployed THAAD battery.
> Fair enough from a lawyer point of view. The US will judge the politics if many americans die and Human history and world opinion will judge the moral if ROK allow millions die.
Actually the ROK was willing to sign the agreement with a DPJ admininstration. There will be no cooperation of any kind with Japan as long as Abe and his followers are in power and leftwingers return to power in Japan.
> but ROK is endangering US military assests in Japan
Those US assets can be protected with US-owned THAAD battery deployed on US bases in Japan. But the problem is that the US has no money for additional multi-billion dollar THAAD battery deployment in Japan and is trying to pass on the cost to Japan instead, and this is where the dispute is because the US cannot pass on its early warning data to Japan.
@SlowMan
Delete"...Which is the Osan-deployed THAAD battery..."
It dont look like a great idea, sounds more like a quick fix. I agree with Solomon opinion, I think that he know what he is talking about. The "PULL AIRCRAFT AND AIRMEN OUT OF OSAN" idea have their own page on the internet.
1 - "...The U.S. Air Force Osan airbase is often touted as a key installation ensuring peace on the Korean peninsula. In fact, it is extremely vulnerable to attack and one of the least favorite duty stations in the world..."
2 - "...If war breaks out, it is certain that hundreds of rockets and artillery shells will immediately pummel Osan, which may include chemical warheads..."
3 - "...Some may argue that Osan would prove valuable if a conflict with China erupted. In reality, it would be a key target for Chinese missiles or surprise air strikes..."
http://www.g2mil.com/osan.htm
"...Actually the ROK was willing to sign the agreement with a DPJ admininstration. There will be no cooperation of any kind with Japan as long as Abe and his followers are in power and leftwingers return to power in Japan.
I think that you are wrong thinking that alone is going to solve the problem. Yes the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) it is about sharing military Intel. But you already stated that "...It actually requires frequent drills with those radar data feed to actually be able to intercept North Korean ICBMs in combat, getting the feed while the missile is on their way doesn't work...".
The US as tried many times to convince ROK to join a US-ROK-Japan anti-ballistic missile defense so the entire defense system work seamslesly and the answer is always the same "No". ROK making a phone call and saying "missile lauch detected" but not having ROK radars connected to the interceptors, I doubt that it sounds enough reasuring for the americans in the US bases in Japan.
"...Those US assets can be protected with US-owned THAAD battery deployed on US bases in Japan. But the problem is that the US has no money for additional multi-billion dollar THAAD battery deployment in Japan and is trying to pass on the cost to Japan instead, and this is where the dispute is because the US cannot pass on its early warning data to Japan..."
The US request that their allies do more in the alliance for keep the Pax-Aamericana, Japan cooperate, ROK not. What is your point? That if the US have the money, then ROK dont look like a bad ally in the eyes of the US?
There is no chance the South Koreans allow Japanese forces to operate on Korean soil. The history there is too painful and the Japanese refuse to come clean on what they did in World War II. If you saw what their high school textbooks say about what happened during World War II you would be shocked. The situation with Taiwan is less intense, but still no way Japanese forces would ever be stationed there. It would be seen as insanely provocative to the Chinese, and the public would never allow it.
ReplyDeletei still don't buy WW2 as a legitimate excuse. it was a brutal time worldwide. unit 702 committed atrocities but so did the Germans, the Soviets and many would say the allies.
Deleteregardless. point is taken and is probably not even being considered by the Japanese. they wouldn't make a move on N. Korea and thats just Slowman's way of stirring the pot. if you've kept up with his comments here then you would know that he is viciously anti-Japanese (even though he's S. Korean its over the top) to even supporting China in actions against them and being anti-US because we've established mutual defense policies with them.
different subject. stock market was weird today. everyone is trying to keep the good times going when everyone knows that its going to turn bearish as soon as the elections are over.
William
Delete> There is no chance the South Koreans allow Japanese forces to operate on Korean soil.
No, but the Japanese argument is that North Korea isn't what Japan recognizes to be the territory of the ROK, thus Japan does not need to seek the ROK permission before invading North Korea,
Solomon
Delete> to even supporting China in actions against them
No one but the US will back Japan when the PLA invades Diaoyu Islands, because those islands were regionally understood to be periphery islands of Taiwan that Japan took and never returned them as they were obligated to following Japan's acceptance of Potsdam declaration to surrender.
So when the PLA invades the Diaoyu Islands, the regional understanding is that China's coming to reclaim what's legally theirs, not invading another country. Unfortunately, the US would be standing on the wrong side of history if they engaged the PLA invasion force thanks to the US-Japan mutual defense treaty. It is wise for the US to not get involved in that mess, and should lend support to Vietnam and the Philippines' territorial disputes with China.
"wrong side of history"????
Deletethat is a term that people with no real life experience use. history is written by the victors when it comes to warfare and on moral issues its written by the decadent and the weak.
"it would be wise"????
so the US should bow to the racial hatred that S. Koreans have toward the Japanese and follow them in their madness? i don't think so. the Japanese have been as good an ally to the US as any of the people in the region with the exception of the Australians. they've complied with US wishes to become more active in their own defense and unlike the S. Koreans, they haven't backed off the idea of preparing to defend themselves against a numerical superior foe.
a better issue for you to concentrate on is to finally decide that teh S. Korean military can take on the N. Koreans solo and for you and your countrymen to say that you no longer need our forces in your country. i for one would be happy to bring back that division to the US or place them in Australia....out of the reach of Chinese ballistic missiles.
Solomon
Delete> i for one would be happy to bring back that division to the US or place them in Australia....out of the reach of Chinese ballistic missiles.
Maybe you haven't been following the whole THAAD debacle, the US attempt to forward deploy THAAD in Osan. The US would lose the closest air base to Beijing and Shanghai by leaving Osan.
And the US troops leaving Osan is exactly what China wants, so much so that China offers to immediately sign a mutual defense treaty with Seoul if that was to happen, guaranteeing that China would stay out of North Korea during the regime collapse of North Korea. This is how much China wants the US troops gone from Korea.
then i guess me and the Chinese agree. time for S. Korea to step up and defend themselves. the THAAD debate is just nonsense. its to protect Seoul, not the US and definitely not our forces.
Deleteremove the 2nd ID from S. Korea and we have robust ground forces that are not geographically tied down to one location. if N. Korea is no longer a real threat and i believe they aren't except for a nuclear missile that might rain on S. Korea then it makes more sense to have those forces available to deploy region and worldwide.
Solomon
Delete> then i guess me and the Chinese agree. time for S. Korea to step up and defend themselves. the THAAD debate is just nonsense. its to protect Seoul, not the US and definitely not our forces.
The THAAD in Osan is intended to protect the US troops in Osan, as well as providing early warning to Japan. Seoul will be protected by KL-SAM interceptors.
If it wasn't for the KL-SAM interceptor program(an S-400 rip off. Almost all ROK missile programs are rip-offs of some Russian missiles), you wouldn't see Koreans being so cocky about ballistic missile defense and would be begging to join the MD by now.
> if N. Korea is no longer a real threat and i believe they aren't except for a nuclear missile that might rain on S. Korea then it makes more sense to have those forces available to deploy region and worldwide.
The availability of Osan and Kunsan air bases is tied to group troop deployments. The US just can't keep what's sweet to them(air bases) while rejecting what's not. They come as a package.
those bases are pure piles of shit. they're oriented toward defense of S. Korea, and have no bearing on strategic mobility of US forces in the region. i say again. they're too close to China, would be almost impossible to defend in the event we need to defend Japan against Chinese aggression and if the govt shares the same view that you do then we wouldn't even be able to launch to protect our own assets on Japan anyway.
Deletebest bet for the US is to recognize that the S. Koreans need to change their attitude or else we need to leave them behind and work with more reliable allies in the region.
but quite honestly its coming anyway. the Philippines are begging for major US forces to return to Subic Bay and Clark. Vietnam is making happy noises and are willing to forget the drama from the Vietnam war. Australia is almost spreading its legs to welcome US forces into the North of their country and others are also getting wet over the thought of us coming to aid them. HELL EVEN Singapore has agreed to welcome a squadron of LCS ships to base at their country!
we have many more options than S. Korea and those options are increasing everyday. while S. Korea continues to fear Japan more than the Chinese, others have a more mature view. China is the threat and the entire region except for S. Korea is getting ready to meet that threat. S. Korea better change or they're gonna get left behind.
Solomon
Delete> those bases are pure piles of shit.
RQ-170s were flying out of Osan long before they were spotted in Kandahar. If the USAF loses Osan and Kunsan, where would they operate from?
> i say again. they're too close to China
Isn't that what the US DoD wants? Bases able to reach China in minutes.
> the Philippines are begging for major US forces to return to Subic Bay and Clark. Vietnam is making happy noises and are willing to forget the drama from the Vietnam war.
Those places are far far away from Beijing and Shanghai. Only from Osan and Kunsan can the USAF fly unrefueled missions against Chinese coast.
And this is why China is trying so hard to kick US troops out of Korea, essentially offering Kim Jong Un's head on a platter and a quick unification if the ROK accepted Beijing's terms.
So why do you want to do exactly what the Chinese government wants to see happen?
we are postured, oriented or wanting to invade China. additionally we have long range missiles and bombers to conduct strike missions into China. our fighter bases in the Pacific are all oriented toward defending the territory of our friends.
DeleteSO AGAIN. THOSE BASES IN OSAN AND KUSAN ARE PURE SHIT!@!!!!
we don't need them, i don't care what the Chinese wants, i'm talking about what is in the best interests of the United States of America! S. Korea is just not worth the expense, the belly aching and the crying about our other allies.
Internal defense, they won't go to any islands.
ReplyDeleteWheels equal speed to rush from one end of the country to the other as needed.
Like a fire brigade where ever an invaders lands they will race there on the highway network.
Retaking a lost Island is not a Japanese specialty.
@Slowman
ReplyDelete"...North Korea won't launch its missiles unless it is a some kind of regime collapse scenario, where it's "Let's all die together" kind of situation...."
"...NK troops would be too busy fighting the ROK troops around Pyongyang, and the US troops at its nuclear weapons depot..."
When combined thogether your answers paint an scenario that make your answers self-contradictory, are you sure that you are not making up answer on the spot?
1 - You say that Japan only can invade North Korea if ROK and the US are fighting DPRK. But japan cannot do that without the consent of ROK and ROK never will do that.
2 - If the regime is collapsing and ROK and the US are trying to get to the nukes, the regime is close to the end and likely to fire all the missiles and use all the WMDs against the attackers..
3 - That ironically it make a strong case for Japan not only not invading DPRK but also not helping ROK in any way, after all ROK seems to be very happy with not warning Japan if missiles are fired.
"...But Russia's heavily fortifying the Southern Kurils islands. You don't see this kind of fortification even in Russia's Eastern European borders. Russia has a genuine fear of a Japanese invasion. People outside of East Asia do not understand why Russia, China, and Korea collectively fear a Japanese invasion...."
I think that that the redeployment ot troops happened before Abe and Putin got their second term and started to get friendly. Fortification? First time I hear about it. If it look that amazing I really like to take a look, can you provide links to pictures and descriptions of it? you make it sound like is a gigantic fortress of concrete filled with russians shacking in fear of a japanese invasion.
Mareo2
Delete> You say that Japan only can invade North Korea if ROK and the US are fighting DPRK. But japan cannot do that without the consent of ROK and ROK never will do that.
Japan does not consider North Korea to be a territory of the ROK. Hence separate nationalities on Zainichi registrations. Hence the Abe administration doesn't believe it needs to seek the ROK's permission in launching preemptive strikes against North Korea, or sending in special troops.
> the US are trying to get to the nukes, the regime is close to the end and likely to fire all the missiles and use all the WMDs against the attackers..
North Korean nuclear weapons depots are first priority targets for the US troops. The agreed task division is that the ROK will head to Pyongyang, while the US special forces will head to North Korean nuclear weapons depot.
> after all ROK seems to be very happy with not warning Japan if missiles are fired.
Indeed, the ROK doesn't care if Tokyo's hit or not. Should Chinese missiles head toward Tokyo, the ROK will let them pass.
> Fortification? First time I hear about it.
http://rt.com/news/kuril-islands-military-revamp-572/
Russia builds up, modernizes military on disputed Kuril Islands
Published time: April 19, 2014 12:24
The Russian Defense Ministry will modernize military settlements on the Kuril Islands and supply some 120 new combat vehicles by the end of the year. Russia’s sovereignty over four of the islands is disputed by Tokyo.
http://rt.com/politics/kuril-islands-defense-tanks-663/
State-of-the-art re-armament for Kuril Islands
Russia is to continue supplying advanced defensive weaponry to the Southern Kuril Islands, which have long been the subject of a territorial dispute between Moscow and Tokyo.
"Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, modern communications systems and heavy armor, including a battalion of T-80 tanks, have already been delivered to the Kurils," a high-ranking official at the Defense Ministry told Interfax on Wednesday."The provision of modern weapons and hardware for the troops in the Kurils will continue."
In particular, the source did not rule out that Pantsir-S1 mobile missile antiaircraft weapon systems will be deployed in the region, while Buk-M1 systems will be replaced by a new version – Buk-M2.
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20110209/162525263.html
Russia plans to send first Mistral ships to protect Kurils
The two Mistral class amphibious assault ships built in France for the Russian Navy will be put in service with the Pacific Fleet, a Russian Defense Ministry source said Wednesday.
"After the [first two] Mistral ships are built and enter service, they are expected to join the Pacific Fleet," the source said.
@Slowman
Deleteyou do realize that you just made a lie out of your primary argument of Japan landing on N. Korea to place X-band radars with the idea of Kuril islands being reinforced by the Russians don't you? additionally you seem to view the defense of S. Korea to be separate from the defense of Japan.
the US views both countries as being essential to containing the Chinese. the only reason....LET ME STATE IT LOUDLY! the only reason why US troops are still in S. Korea is because of the China threat. if not for that then me and every other American would be yelling for the S. Koreans to defend themselves.
but S. Korea doesn't really want to do that. remember the delays in S. Korea taking charge of their own defenses and requesting more time? if you don't i can look it up for you but its really quite sad.
Solomon
Delete> remember the delays in S. Korea taking charge of their own defenses and requesting more time? if you don't i can look it up for you but its really quite sad.
This is because of rightwingers in power, who are "cut spending to lower corporate taxes" and are firm believers of trickle down economic theory who promises to cut taxes on what's already OECD's second lowest tax rate while making up the shortfalls with stuff like cigarettes and parking tickets from the working class. The leftwingers are "tax and spend" kind of people who promise to tax the wealthy to fund a socialist welfare scheme, and a strong military so that they could further reduce US troop presence.
So it's the anti-US folks who actually invest in defense, while the pro-US folks try to depend on the US to reduce spending.
A good news for Solomon is that the leftwingers are all but guaranteed to win in the next election.
if you said all that to simply say that their is a group of people that want the US out of S. Korea and they're gonna win the next election then good! personally i'm tired of all the protests, tired of all the payouts to rice farmers etc...for the "pleasure" of defending people that don't want to do the heavy lifting of defending themselves.
DeleteN. Korea is on its last legs but for some reason those malnourished, tiny, old weapon equipped people scare the shit out of the ROK military and people.
i hope shit kicks off. pass the popcorn cause it will be fun to watch Seoul burn.