Eric over at ELP Blog has a couple of short posts up about the F-35 that made me pause. Read them here and here.
The stark reality?
The F-35 isn't seeing the massive production ramp up that the Program Manager/Lockheed Martin insisted was needing to get the "cost curve" down.
Production has been flat for the past four years. Orders from Israel, and Italy have almost been cut in half. Japan isn't buying as many as fast as hoped and S. Korea appears to already be suffering some type of buyers remorse.
But the real kick in the pants should be this realization. The plane is still eating up an inordinate part of the budget, other more needed programs have been cut to protect it and we can't buy enough to force the price down.
This is just more evidence that the death spiral is already here.
UPDATE: Its worse than I initially thought. I was reading the comments over at ELP's Blog and ran across this...
Don Bacon • 33 minutes agoThe above information is verifiable. Additionally I remember the much ballyhoo-ed announcement and then nothing of the British Defense Minister signing a contract for the F-35's earlier this year and now...in the fourth quarter we get the news that the Brit order has been cut from 14 to 4. Aviation and Defense journalist should be all over this!
This just in -- The UK shoe has finally dropped, and it's a size four not a fourteen.
BBCNews, Feb 10
UK to spend £2.5bn on [14] F-35 fighters
The UK is about to commit to the F-35 fighter project, a US-led effort to produce 3,000 aircraft which is set to cost more than £600bn globally. The initial UK order for 14 F-35Bs will, with support costs added, cost about £2.5bn, Newsnight has learned.//
UK has been "about to commit" for eight months and now--
DailyMail, Oct 28
Britain says agrees to order four F-35 stealth fighter jets
(Reuters) - Britain has reached an agreement in principle to order four more of Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets, the Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday.
The contract, part of a plan to purchase 14 of the stealth fighters over the next five years, will be placed within the coming weeks, the ministry said. The aircraft are due to be delivered from mid-2016.
Israel just ordered another squadron's worth, pending on its parliament's approval (almost assured.) Arguably the only allied country that actually *needs* a stealth aircraft.... Anyway, it's nice that the US bankroll's Israel's aircraft procurement - it's almost like an extension to the US's F-35 order. Note that the expense of the F-35 - and US unwillingness to fork over more aid to Israel - that the potential sale of V-22 to Israel is off.
ReplyDeleteanother squadrons worth? the Israeli Air Force is good but they won't be able to maintain them. that sale will be approved but they won't in the end go for it. too expensive to maintain properly and the maintenance hub is in Turkey. that just won't do.
DeleteCharley has a point. Israel is only buying because the US is giving them the cash to do so, and can strong-arm them over other military aid they get from us.
DeleteIsrael did not order another squadron's worth.
Delete(Reuters) - Israel plans to buy a second batch of Lockheed Martin's F-35 stealth fighter jets, bringing the total number it has on order to about 44, Israeli defence sources said on Tuesday.
Solomon
Delete> the maintenance hub is in Turkey
No, in Italy.
Hey look the Israeli's are buying F-35's! Wow, those guys are good, they must know something.
Deletepppsssttt, don't tell anyone, that the US actually pays for everything, and tells them what they can have.
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DeleteI remember a news story a few years back that Netanyahu wanted the latest F-15 version, but was told No.
DeleteSeems a done deal for Israel pending their political approval.
Deletehttp://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/10/28/383978/us-agrees-to-sell-israel-25-f35-jets/
SpudmanWP
DeleteIsrael is not paying for it thus Israel has no choice.
You can upgrade what you have for the cost of one of these F-35 maybes.
ReplyDeleteJust in case the Israelis should buy 44 Stealthy Scorpions to attack what ever they want in case the F-35 fails.
ReplyDeleteThey just cost $20 Million each with a Flight hour of 2700. They can carry 1.5 Tn internally with a ferry range of 2,400 nmi
http://www.scorpionjet.com/
Keep in mind that due to being in the LRIP stage, only yearly contracts are allowed. For the UK, Italy, Israel, etc, this is why they are not ordering their entire commitment at the same time.
ReplyDeleteunderstood. but two? four? that won't help ramp up production which is the point we're getting at.
DeleteIt's a matter of budgeting. For any given year, they had so much set aside for F-35s. Due to the JackHoles$ in Congress not honoring commitments, the production is not ramping up as needed so our partners have had to trim back LRIP buys to stay in budget.
Deleteyou think thats the problem? the program office has stated flat out that the F-35 program is protected at the expense of other stuff thats needed more like the USMC ACV and the US Army GCV.
Deletethe flyboys are having their day in the sun and can't get their favorite toy across the finish line because its fucked up beyond recognition.
thats the real deal. and because its so delayed its screwing up the DoD acquisition plans. the next victim? the USAF next gen bomber. the USN, and US Army ain't gonna take more years of being underfunded just so the USAF can hog all the defense dollars.
this shit is going to rapidly come to a breaking point and i'll be glad when it does. people have been getting fat and lazy. i bet you your favorite drink that Lockheed doesn't deliver the rest of those jets from THIS contract by the end of the year.
Yes, I do think they are mostly to blame for the low ramp-up rates and late IOC.
DeleteRemember that it was congress who DEMANDED JAST & ASTOVL be combined and pushed Concurrency through. However, at the first sign of trouble, they introduce delays instead of increased resources to address the problem. They even canceled two SDD jets early on to try and save money that they had to later put back in (with others) from LRIP 1&2.
Has it affected the US, not much. However, the people it has affected the most is our Partners. Remember that while the US planned a buy for the next 25+ years, our Partners were buying theirs mostly from late LRIP and early MYB Programs. These delays in IOC and ramp-up are seriously hurting our allies and making us look like chumps in the eyes of the world.
On the FUBAR front, you can make that claim of the F-35 when it starts to fail like Obamacare... talk about FUBAR. That program has failed to meet even a single promise.
Initial operational capability has nothing to do with air vehicle performance, but only reflects the readiness to operate and support the aircraft. The development of the F-35 aircraft is scheduled for completion in 2019, and that will probably slip (yet again) because of software, reliability and engine problems, among others. So the IOC planes will not be combat capable, for years to come.
DeleteIn a recent interview the Pentagon's chief tester, Michael Gilmore, stated that "The aircraft's mission systems have yet to be tested in the F-35." The term “mission systems” refers to the avionics, integrated electronic sensors, displays and communications systems that collect and share data with the pilot and other friendly aircraft, at sea, in the air and on the ground. They have yet to be tested! After thirteen years of development! So they don't exist, and that's not the fault of Congress, it's the gross mismanagement of the JSF program.
we're about to get an early test of Dunford as Commandant. will he actually declare an airplane operational if it doesn't meet 'go to war' requirements of the USMC? if he does then he's as bought and paid for as Amos. if he stands firm then the Marine Corps might stand a chance to reclaim its former glory.
DeleteThe plan (July 2014): VMFA 121 squadron now has eight of 16 F-35Bs. It will permanently move to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in Japan in late summer 2017. Of VMFA 121's 16 aircraft, six are slated for deployment on the USS Makin Island amphibious assault ship in the Pacific, with the remaining 10 at Iwakuni.
DeleteThe Marines will operate and support unreliable, non-combat capable, untested developmental prototypes in Japan and asea? In their dreams.