What is going on with increased Russian flights?

via Defense Media Network.

Ahead of the “election” held byseparatists in Eastern Ukraine on Sunday, Russia increased military air activity in European airspace, reflective of a 300 percent increase over 2013 in intercepts of Russian aircraft.
NATO detected four separate groups of aircraft exercising over the Baltics, the North Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean Oct. 28 and 29, according to a NATO report.

“Clearly, they pose the potential risk of escalation. They also, quite frankly, could pose just a potential risk to civil aviation just in the sheer number of and size of and scope of these flights. So, they’re not exactly helpful.”
On Oct. 28, NATO tracked seven Russian combat aircraft flying in international airspace over the Baltic Sea. The aircraft were detected at approximately 2:30 p.m. and included two MiG-31 Foxhound, two Su-34 Fullback, one Su-27 Flanker and two Su-24 Fencer fighter and strike aircraft, according to the report from SHAPE Public Affairs.
The Russian aircraft, flying over the Gulf of Finland, were intercepted by German Typhoon fighters from NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission. The Russian aircraft continued into the Baltic Sea and were subsequently intercepted and then handed off by Allied fighters from Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, which are not members of NATO. The Russian fighters continued to the Kaliningrad Oblast. The Russian aircraft in this incident had filed a flight plan with air traffic control authorities and were using transponders, but did not maintain radio contact with civilian air traffic control.

Hmm.

The Russian aircraft filed a flight plan and were using transponders.  On the face of it from my chair, these flights  don't appear particularly menacing.  But why are the Russians doing this?

My theories?

173rd Airborne conducting an emergency readiness exercise in Romania.

Increased US military activity in Europe.

I haven't posted much on this subject but the US military has dramatically increased its activity in Europe.  While our European partners (with the exception of Poland and other Eastern nations) have done little, the USMC has been seen storing armor in Scandinavian countries, the US Army sending Stryker and Heavy Armored Brigades close to Russia and even conducting emergency readiness exercises with the continents only real quick reaction force, the 173rd Airborne.  I haven't even touched on naval activities with a variety of ships operating close to the Russian coast and USMC personnel training with Romanians, Estonians and Georgia. 

Falling Oil Prices.

Many theories abound on this one.  Some believe that the Saudi's are attempting to push the Iranians over the edge because they depend so much on high oil prices.  Some believe that Russia is responding to manipulation of oil by the Saudi's with US assistance.  Others believe that the US is attempting to maintain itself as the global fiat currency.  What is fact?  Many African nations are dependent on high oil prices.  Many Middle Eastern countries are stable ONLY because of high oil prices.  Finally, Russia is also dependent.  If the Russians believe that the US is helping manipulate world wide oil prices to further punish their economy then this could turn nasty.

My take?

Quite honestly I just don't know.  I have seen presentations on both theories and they seem plausible.  But what should concern everyone and possibly tilts this toward the oil manipulation theory is that SecDef Hagel canceled a trip to the Pacific to handle a situation in the Middle East.  Rioting has been happening in Israel and a terror attack just occurred at a rail station in that country but that shouldn't rise high enough to kill his trip.  ISIS is marching on but nothing earth shattering (I say this gingerly...they're monsters that need to be bombed back to the stone ages where their beliefs come from)...so what is going on behind the scenes that caused the cancellation?  Unfortunately more to come I'm sure.