Remember that little thing that was spreading in Africa named Ebola?
Well we haven't heard much lately and that's curious because we still have a ton of Soldiers and Marines either in country or heading there (101st you drew the short straw you unlucky bastards).
Which brings me to this. Two blogs I follow, American Mercenary and Shepard of the Gurneys, have differing opinions on whats happening (did you know that a person with symptoms was recently admitted to a hospital here in the US?).
I have no idea. My prediction from the past? They're keeping a lid on things till after the Christmas holidays. We'll see if my pessimistic view, along with SOTG is correct or if AM is right.
UPDATE! SOTG is reporting that Sierra Leone is cancelling Christmas. Details here.
AM is practicing optimism, based on the spin from the kleptocrats in Africa.
ReplyDeleteI'm practicing realism, based on watching the spin from the kleptocrats in Africa.
No one will be happier than I to find out Ebola is actually abating.
Nor more surprised.
he's data based and i get that. my problem is i don't believe the data that we're being given. garbage in garbage out. i run into the same issue when discussing the economy, social issues, military issues etc...in all cases i predict we'll find out who's right and who's wrong soon enough.
DeleteRealism requires either a) data or b) direct input. Lacking both, what you really have isn't "realism", it's half-baked speculation. In such cases (or when one thinks it is such a case), it is better and honest to simply not form an opinion. "I don't know" is always a correct answer.
DeleteA colleague went to Africa for a short tour with Doctors Without Borders. We've only texted briefly and I'm still awaiting a full report when he has time; but so far the clear impression from him is that the Zombie Apocalypse is not imminent.
you just made that grand statement and in the end you came up with an OPINION!!!! my belief that this will turn to shit is based on observation. i've seen the UN in action. i've seen the US in action. i've watched the Brits, Dutch and other European nations in action. they do not fill me with confidence. i'm aware of the lack of resources that African nations have. again, i'm not filled with confidence.
Deletebased off observations and experience with all of the above i have the OPINION that this supposed sugar will turn to shit.
could i be wrong? yep. but so could you.
Of course I could be wrong. But note that the initial impression (that's all I offered up) was from someone with boots on the ground. I noted that I still haven't heard details from him; just that lack of panic. Given that you don't rely on the data offered to all of us, all that's left is whatever direct observations we can garner; as insufficient as they may be. We did exactly the same in combat. If we don't trust the intel, then we have to make do with what little we can observe. And we must be aware that we are speculating, and make that clear to any who have to hear our input.
ReplyDeleteGrand statement? Thanks. ;-) I thought it was rather pedestrian and obvious myself.
Mordechai, your self-imposed silence for weeks while this outbreak has run hog-wild speaks volumes.
ReplyDeleteBut thanks for coming back now to tell us everything is going to be okay, after only another few thousands of dead people have stacked up, based upon a lone abbreviated response from a short-term visit by yet another Mystery Guest.
Lacking such resources, I've been forced to rely on a paltry few hundred open-source media reports, most of them first-hand, all of them based on the same boots-on-the-ground perspective, and I see no reason based on any of them to put any stock in hopes for this tapering off. The rosiest prognostications from the biggest cheerleaders there suggest that will be half a year to achieve, at the inside. They hope.
Conversely, evidence of gross incompetence, universal corruption, suppression of accurate reportage, and outright falsification of all official reports are about as hard to find as water in the ocean, whether we're talking about the governments in question, or the UN acting as mouthpieces for same.
Every day since late August through right this minute at least 100 fresh Ebola cases/day crop up in that region (according to the same known low-ball "official" reports), and 1000 people/week from there travel here.
Neither of those makes further outbreaks, there or here, less likely.
Anything else is purely wishful thinking.
But thanks for trying to ham-fistedly slip in "Zombie Apocalypse" and "panic" as though either was anywhere seriously suggested, and then handsomely dispatching your straw men with gusto. Well played indeed.
Canceling large public gatherings at Christmas isn't exactly the same as canceling Christmas.
ReplyDeleteRemember you are always 3 weeks away from the end of the outbreak if you can keep people from infecting each other. Stopping large community gatherings is a very good way to do that.
Whether or not it has any measurable effect is something to look for in January.
I know that, but it was the Oz lede, so I went with it.
DeleteBut thus far, Sierra Leone's "quarantines" have had two primary effects there:
A) To increase the short-term patient load immediately after it's lifted, as those who already have Ebola infect their entire families in enforced captivity together (which Sept. version was pretty much the impetus for the current continuing out-of-control spread there), and
B) to leave thousands of the country's poorest (in a nation of poor) starving to death with no food at home, and no means of getting any with an AK-47-backed curfew in effect.
Which also lowers their immune response, playing right into the hands of "A", above.
Mr. Viscious, meet Mr. Circle.