via D-A.
The average unit cost of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter continues to rise, despite claims by the program’s Joint Program Office and the prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, that they are decreasing with each annual production lot.D-A.com makes a VERY compelling case in this article. Its highly recommended reading.
The program office bases its claim of lower costs on just a few of the many contracts it awards for each lot, and disregards the others. When announcing the main LRIP Lot 6 and Lot 7 contracts on Sept 27, 2013, for example, the JPO stated that:
”This award increases the value of the aircraft and associated production efforts on the LRIP 6 contract to $4.4 billion ($3.7 billion awarded …[in]…December 2012 ….and $0.7 billion awarded today) ….for production of 36 aircraft, with average aircraft unit cost approximately 2.5 percent lower than LRIP 5 aircraft.”
In fact, the real LRIP Lot 6 unit cost ($ 215.5 million) is fully 5% higher than the Lot 5 unit cost ($205 million), according to our analysis of DoD contract data.
JPO’s claim of lower Lot 6 unit prices is based on the two contracts identified above whereas, in fact, it awarded 27 Lot 6 contracts between Feb 9, 2012 and 0ct 9, 2014. The total value of these contracts is $7,757.3 million (see Table 1), almost double the $4,400 million cited by JPO.
I'm waiting for other media outlets to check this article (although I sense that it is spot on) but for General Bogdan shit just got real....
Regardless of the actions of your subordinates, the responsibility for decisions and their application falls on you. You must issue all orders in your name...via Marine Officer's Guide 1985 editionLets be clear.
The Marine Corps has fired Commanders for less.
If the Defense-Aerospace report is true then we're seeing dereliction of duty, public deception, malfeasance in office, theft of govt funds and bringing discredit to the armed force of the United States.
Bogdan needs to be fired and the program canceled.
Heinz was fired as JPO boss for much less. Bogdan has a problem putting forward any accurate statements about the status of a program he is allegedly in charge of.
ReplyDeleteGeneral Bodgan is entirely in bed with Lockheed Martin. I don't know why, but I guarantee that what's going to happen is Lockheed and the JPO are going to pull out some bullshit numbers from their own "experts" to counter this.
ReplyDeletewhile i totally agree with EP and Bacon Don and Solomon in their assesment of F35, i still confused on the "other side" , people that pro F35 like those on the USAF. i mean they cant be all LM hack/shill ? someone in the USAF/USN must realize that this is not going well and they proposed alternatives ?
ReplyDeleteare there any aircraft project like this before ? i dont think F111/F14 debacle is as bad as this one.
You're already too far along the program to cancel it, you'll lose more dumping everything than bringing it to completion, however painful that might sound. It's like trying to turn back at the 36km mark of a marathon, much easier to go to the end than the beginning. Part of the "too big to fail" scenario.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention too many countries relying on the F-35 as their next mainstay fighter. Cancel it and lots of your nominal allies are up shit creek. That might affect future business and investment and maybe even the "friendliness" of the countries if they think that the US took their money and pissed it away for nothing.
For better or worse, the US is committed, no point crying about it now. Treat it as a lesson not to overreach next time.
The program has spent way less than a hundred billion so far compared to total life cycle cost of $1.4 trillion on a system which was supposed to be good at everything and yet be inexpensive, and we know that none of those will be true. Plus it's got a bum engine. Why invest in failure? Old infantry maxim: Exploit success and dump failure.
DeleteOther countries, forced into this program, are backing away, with even three joint partners (Turkey, Denmark & Canada) not yet buying any prototypes and only two non-partners doing so (Japan & Israel) in a failed program now going into its fourteenth year, and yet mission systems haven't even been tested yet.
1.4 trillion over how many years? That "through life" figure can be deceptive in both ways. 1.4 trillion over a hundred years (exaggeration) is a bargain while the same amount over a decade means someone needs to be shot.
DeleteHas anyone made a life cycle comparison vs something like the F-15, 16 or 18? For all we know, these other planes may have had a more expensive life cycle cost, just that no one was keeping track over the years.
And you invest in failure because as I mentioned before, you're forced to do so. Did I say it was a happy situation? No, I think I mentioned that it sucks, but life's a lemon.
Basically, LM got itself a monopoly on the next-gen light fighter and well, screwed it up. The shifting goal posts didn't really help too. In the beginning, all the talk I remembered was that it was supposed to be an "export level F-22" which the US was using too for the low part of their hi-low structure. Then when 2008 hit, the F-22 went belly up and all of a sudden, the downgraded export fighter turned into the linchpin of their forces and they had to make it better than they were trying to downgrade it.
In a sad way, it's a bit funny, the "crap" plane that they were going to foist on their allies became something that they use themselves too. The irony of the world. Can be painful sometimes.
If they canned this program, what is going to replace the F-16s et al vs the upcoming Russian and Chinese LO fighters? It's not like those 2 are going to call a time out while the West spends another 10 years designing a new fighter. More like they'll mass produce all they can to outclass the current inventory and use their temporary advantage to strong arm the countries around them. Without the F-35, which I grant is a terribly program, what is going to give the other countries parity? Buy Russian when the Chinese threaten and buy Chinese when Russia threatens?
Owl, the F-35 will likely get shot down vs. emerging (and some existing) surface-to-air and air-to-air threats. So basically, there is no reason to build it. Even if it worked to specification. The Joint Operational Requirement Document (JORD), composed in the 1990s and signed off on at the beginning of the last decade is obsolete. It assumed hundreds of combat-coded F-22s to do the work against big threats. We all know how that turned out. It also didn't take into account threats that are emerging today. Obsolete. Thus far, America has spent $83B on the F-22 and almost $60B on the F-35. Result? 120-some combat-coded F-22s. ....and nothing else.
Deletelots of our allies are already up shits creek. Italy is just delaying the inevitable. they're hanging on just long enough to reap benefits from constucting US airplanes and i predict they'll dump their buy. the Netherlands are buying a pitiful 37 planes. the Singaporeans are taking a wait and see approach. the USMC's entire procurement budget is being raped by a cactus and the F-35 is inflicting the pain. have you paid attention to talk coming out of Congress? the sequester is here to stay. teh cost curve is NOT being pushed down and the obvious is already happening.
ReplyDeletefewer F-35's are being bought and that means death spiral. salvage what bits you can, pressurize industry for the 6th gen airplane and then toss industry a bone by doing some drastic upgrades to existing aircraft.
thats the only real solution.
On the bright side, after this, not many people are going to trust LM with designing even a toilet brush.
DeleteIn extreme desperation if the Chinese gets proddy, I can see other countries gravitating to the Korean and Japanese stealth programs.
And there goes the US's lead.
"Israel Reduces F-35 Buy — At Least For Now"
ReplyDeletehttp://aviationweek.com/defense/israel-reduces-f-35-buy-least-now
"In a rare reversal of the national security establishment, the Israeli government has decided to decrease the planned procurement of F-35A Joint Strike Fighters from 50 to 33 aircraft in the coming years."
The Pentagon is currently putting all its stock in a projected "block buy" which, because of domestic budget woes, would require big numbers from foreign countries, which is the weakest component of this program. But the Pentagon is changing, with (apparently) a Carter/Work team in charge. Carter is a physicist who knows his way around technical matters, which means a disdain for BS, and Deputy Work is a 27-year Marine vet who is a forward-thinker, whose "Third Offset Strategy" would change Pentagon acquisition. Plus McCain in the Senate, who has called the F-35 program a "tragedy."
ReplyDeleteCan't find any links but saw today on Bloomberg News that LMT announced that they want to QUADRUPLE production on F35 by 2017.....
DeleteThe F-35, thirteen years in development, hasn't undergone climatic testing yet. Can you believe that? The V-22 Osprey underwent climatic testing at the McKinley Climatic Laboratory, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida in 1992, twenty-two years ago. The F-35 was scheduled for McKinley this year. And they want Norway and Canada to procure these planes?
ReplyDeleteToo big to fail? The only ones in trouble if ti cancelled are the British with their new empty carriers, the rest can buy other airplanes to complement their already capable 4+ fighters.
ReplyDeleteAbout the Stealth fixation, if the Russian and Chinese can detect those fancy expensive toys today, it's not difficult to imagine what they will do in a decade.
Better to have enough affordable 4+ fighters with EM capacity, Jammers, decoys and smart weapons, and advanced IR/EO missiles. Any fighter can jamm and avoid Long Ranve missiles, and then defeat the enemy with IR/EO missiles. The Mig35, Su35, SH, Gripen, Rafale, EF they also have the so called "great data fussion" and great sensors and EW capacities, but they have also great flight performance and are more affordable to mantain in big numbers. Stealth ariplanes are obsolete already and the F-35 is not even capable to carry Aim-9X internally. To put things in context, just imagine a poor pilot trying to scape from 4 cheap Mig29 with IR missiles..... that's the same amount of fighter you could buy instead an F-35, who cares is the pilot will see the Mig29 all around with it's fancy helmet, he won't be able to do nothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5847b_VFPCw
Like this
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3TlOEeb6Bw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO8I7mdPIhY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovAnVd5i16w
Ok so I agree the F-35 should be cancelled. However lets just look out for the US if the F-35 is cancelled what are our alternatives? I know about the F-18E/F Advanced Super Hornet. That will work for the navy if the marines would just upgrade from their F-18C/Ds it might work for them too. But what about the Air Force? The F-16? The F-16 at this point at least on paper is completely out classed by the SU-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Grippen, MIG-35, Rafael or any other 4+ gen fighter. The F-16 was supposed to replace the F-16. If the F-35 goes away what will replace the F-16?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAedQ7FMiKo
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3K1PzmH-2Q
Ah I forgot about the Silent Eagle sort of thought that project was never completed. That would be a good Idea. If I am not mistaken the other video shows a Danish F-16 downing an Italian Tyhpoon? If that is what it is then I am impressed.
DeleteJust one more thought. What would replace the harrier for the marines?
DeleteFor air defense and experitionary force I thinks they sould use their Harriers updated and capable to command UAVs
ReplyDeleteFor day one attack Harriers with Stand off weapons and advanced jammers like the Growlers. To have some Super Hornets and Growlers from Navy Carries could be a posibillity too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrsMz2qH0Uk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm1z_DkO3bQ
And yes, it was a Danish F-16. As I said in another Blog, I'm not surprised the Israelis are not asking for more F-35 at the moment when they have better capacities today affordably
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTyD3D5lM6Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSJDUABpXzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpPudL-Ztdg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrT2KtSzMd0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUol9NQaSew
BTW, I think the airforce shoud use the Super Hornet too instead of the F-16/F-18
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nNajPYghAw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF7RQ50gwFY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op3dupMZfz4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gX_vZB-2nE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n7PwSZHCP8
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ReplyDeletethis question to EP/Don/Sol :
ReplyDeleteif the F35 performed as advertised and combat capable in 2015, is it still worth the asking price of 200m per unit ? is it a good replacement for the current aging Gen 4 aircraft ?
assuming F35 is cancelled by USN/USAF , can the Marines afford the F35B without USN/USAF ?
last question first. no, the USMC cannot afford the F-35. now to the first. no, the F-35 will not be combat capable by 2015. that is an impossibility. flight testing won't be completed until 2019. so why is the USMC declaring INITIAL operational capability in 2015? to fool an ignorant public. many will cheer teh fact that the F-35 is in service. reality will be different. it will be less capable than the Harrier and any deployment will see those airplanes either augmented by Harriers or a carrier will be close by.
DeleteNow now, let us be fair, it's going to be more capable than the harrier, but less than almost everything else. The harrier isn't that spectacular, the only outstanding capability it had was V/STOL.
DeleteI could go with that but the F-35 is still way to expensive too justify buying. For the three main aircraft to be replaced by the F-35, the F-16 F-18 and Harrier I propose these alternatives: F-15 Silent Eagle, F-18 Advanced Super Hornet, and just giving the MV-22 a nose gun, and Hellfire missiles/Hydra rockets under the wings kind of like what the Japanese are proposing to do with the MV-22s they ordered.
Delete