Monitoring CNBC with one ear and I heard the craziest speculation I've heard in a long time.
The talking heads were actually debating the possibility of a revolution in Russia!
That's goofy in a handbag...but it points to something serious. Russia is in trouble.
My take?
Russia will muddle along with Putin in charge. Its noteworthy that the SecState had good things to say about Russian activity. The door is being opened to ease the sanctions. It will be truly ironic if historians put two and two together and blame the Obama administration for an economic crisis in Europe because he pushed the passive-aggressive stance of pushing sanctions which are crippling the continent.
Oil hasn't found a bottom and people are desperately trying to set one. Many will take a blood bath for not reading the tea leaves properly. But the biggest news will be the stronger dollar. By accident the economy is reverting back to consumer based metrics.
UPDATE: As I'm typing this the market has gone down again....losing 180 pts in the matter of the news show I'm watching! Putin is giving a speech so I'm off to CNN. More to come. The market is fun to watch from the sidelines.
I wouldnt of originated the idea of Putin being knifed, but now you mention it.
ReplyDeleteUnlikely, if only because he has so thoroughly purged Russia of anyone who could.do it.
Civil war maybe.
That is not that stupid as it can sound... at least not for Kremlin.
ReplyDeleteFor some time there are some moves inside Russia that will in opinion of gov' prevent any type of this actions. It's look like they are really scare as shit that some kind of "revolution" or Majdan will start to happen there. They extend internal security forces, give them more and more power, put laws that limit the freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. Kremlin and in more precise, Putin put his most trusted men in lead positions. For some time there was a fight for a position of chief of Internal forces, the Kołokolcew was going to "resign" but after couple of days he deny this... but he agree that Internal Forces will be available for suppressing any type of demonstration from now. That was probably the price of his stool, he is pretty popular so he can't be just throw away. But it's look's now Putin fully control him and by him whole Internal Forces.
Kreml build a serious forces to "protect Russian against counterrevolution" as we would say couple of decades ago. I'm afraid that if Russians would walk to streets and try to express concerns or hostility towards government... it would end with a bloodbath.
@ it would end with a bloodbath. @
Deleteof course, idiots must die or flee out of Mother-Russia or being sentenced to some job to do in the open air somewhere in Siberia.
I always want to lease some part of deep Taiga, always covered with snow. And send there all those idiots, criminals ect... to... you know... clear of snow. But as you notice, there are some + like... open spaces and clean air.
Delete@I always want to lease some part of deep Taiga,@
DeleteYou know, if you take Russian citizenship it is not a problem)))) My father had a hunting plot in several dozens square kilometers of tiga and hunted sable and squirrel there. But there is a catch – local nation – yacuts – live still their tradition way and do not give a shit to dividing taiga on plots. They keep the issue that taiga belongs to them at all.
Russia's collapse has more to do with the collapse of oil thanks to the Saudis. The sanctions do not help but it is the price of oil which is killing Russian's economy.
ReplyDeleteAnd you think that Saudis did that by mistake? There actions are also sanctions, there ones from first pages of newspapers and the ones that were put in to action behind closed doors.
DeleteOfc, "Saudis", sure, we all know who is behind oil prices reduction. Its just like killing at least four rabbits with one shot -- low oil prices boost US economy, and at the same time delivering heavy blows to Iran, Venezuela and Russia.
DeleteFive.
DeleteThe American shell industry.
OPEC is targeting shale oil in US ,Saudis also see it as way to hurt Iran . Russians are just colateral. Shale oil is to expensive to compete at these prices and if it lasts you are going to see lots of companies driling in US going bust ,same goes for Canadas shale project.
DeleteIt's also basically a punishment for America refusing to be a good bitch/attack dog attack and Assad and Russia being a giant cock-blocker.
DeleteI have to handed to the Saudis.
I never said it was a coincidence the Saudis are doing it.
DeleteIt hurts US shale oil effort, but it weakens Russia's and iran's hand in supplying Syria. It punishes Venezuala, too, but who cares? it's a minor role player in South America.
It also helps out the Ukraine which we like.
How does it help Ukraine.? you realize Ukrainian economic is heavily tied to Russia AND IS IN A DEEP SHIT ? right ? and about to collapse. and this isn't helping it. Who's going to bail out Ukraine ? The west ? It's seeing what it is now and it ain't rushing in. In fact Ukraine was just a way to hurt rising Russia , there was no intention of helping it ever. That's fucking clear.
Deletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10266957/Saudis-offer-Russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-Syria.html
DeleteRussia response was to publish the
Not a chance in hell. The intelligentsia and the 90's and the fact there is simply no alternative, soured any chance of Putin loosing power. In fact the people would now even more willing to give him power and give him the hand to purge Russia of oligarchs. Which would in fact make Putin a defacto ruler of Russia what western media has been erroneously portraying as. Because as of now he has only been a front-man with power but had to share that power with oligarchs.
ReplyDeleteAnd i'd welcome seeing oligarchs and the so called "intelligentsia" a word that's been basically used as a mocking word since the 90's. All lined up at a wall and simply shot as this cancers shits deserve to be.
CIA preparing media for incomming State departement coloured revolution... At least they try...
ReplyDeleteNo revolution yet, but the national currency and the economic in the deepest ass (I'm sorry) and they are still going to fall into abyss. I think a revolution will never happen due to special mentality of people here.
ReplyDeletedon't be confused. you're seeing a special strength of the Russian people. consider. any other country that suffered the same economic blows would have seen rioting in the street by now. as authoritarian as some people believe Russia to be (and i'm not so sure...you see ultra rich there and its new money so capitalist reforms have stuck) it wouldn't be able to prevent outbreaks of rioting. remember that the old Soviet Union fell with less pressure on their economy than we're seeing now.
DeleteLike I said. The only change that might happen is Putin grabbing all the power and putting oligarchs and the so called "intelligentsia" up against the wall and actually start doing reforms. That would be applauded by most Russians.
DeleteAnd if there will be a downfall of Putin and oligarchs somehow. believe me here will end up someone who western leaders will wish for Putin to be back again.
One think for sure economically wont be as bad as the 90's Russia was. Nor will the intelligentsia be in charge along with favored preferably drunk puppets back by west in charge of Russia again.
I would like to hear InfoInfanterie comments about this issue, but personally I don’t think it will come to revolution. From what I read on the Internet, the Russians believe they are under attack (which they kind of are, the evil crazy child murdering Putin, who can’t stop being hostile to small innocent democratic countries or LBGT right groups is just western propaganda) and are not going to yield, Putin popularity is all time high for a reason (even if the numbers are skewed, which I’m pretty sure they are, they are still better than those of most if not all western leaders) I stand with George Friedman of Stratfor in this one.
ReplyDelete“But there was another reason given for the relative calm over the financial situation, and it came not only from government officials but also from private individuals and should be considered very seriously. The Russians pointed out that economic shambles was the norm for Russia, and prosperity the exception. There is always the expectation that prosperity will end and the normal constrictions of Russian poverty return.
The Russians suffered terribly during the 1990s under Boris Yeltsin but also under previous governments stretching back to the czars. In spite of this, several pointed out, they had won the wars they needed to win and had managed to live lives worth living. The golden age of the previous 10 years was coming to an end. That was to be expected, and it would be endured. The government officials meant this as a warning, and I do not think it was a bluff. The pivot of the conversation was about sanctions, and the intent was to show that they would not cause Russia to change its policy toward Ukraine.”
Sadly, the sanctions and the idea of an incoming revolution in Russia, highlights the West own weakness, we are all about the money. The crisis in Europe has seen the rise of truly radical political parties that could shake Europe political structures: Front Nationale, Seryza, UKIP or Podemos. The last one could actually cause a civil war in Spain if it implements its agenda of Bolivarian leftism, secularism and republicanism.
The numbers for Putin's popularity aren't skewed. He's far from ideal leader in Russian minds. But he's the only choice. The 90's and so called mockingly "intelligentsia" shitted the bed. That and the fact that most Russians believe any leader in the end will just be a puppet to oligarch. Which is pretty much true. Even Putin despite portrayed as an absolute ruler of Russia by the clueless western media, while he does hold power shares it with the oligarchs.
Delete@I would like to hear InfoInfanterie comments about this issue@
DeleteThank you for the trust, sir. The long story in short is: by now there are no fundamental reasons for “revolution”. First, huge currency reserves. Second, totally controlled by Putin Central Bank. Third, security-papers and currency markets are not so integrated in real economy like in the West. Damn, I've spent 5 years of hopeless life to prove the statement. Bgggg. Fourth, Putin's regime stands on three whales: government-paid workers and their families; people in charge and bureaucrats (including retired) and their families; and so called mono-towns (a settlement around one or several huge plants). They all give must majority of Russian population: first support vital activity – medicine, education, administration, social service; the second give security; through Caucasus hell passed through vast majority of our military – we have hundreds of thousands men with real battle experience (and try to prove them that LBGT – it is good); the third performance critical industrial production including cosmos, atom and defense industry. This structure are not very comfortable in peace time, but excellent for crisis – including such top-crisis as war.
Manpower determines everything. And our manpower wants no any revolution – its clear that one thieves will change another but thousands of common people die. For more then thousands years of evolution we developed a lot of instruments to bullshit our fr-enemies and rivals and cover our weak places. One of them: some millions clerks and whatnots in St. Peterburg and Moscow are used only to show illusion of society, ready for “revolution” (the current name of pro-western riots by now). It looks like vast majority of western “experts in Russia' never bother themselves to leave two comfortable capitals and face real alive Mother-Russia.
If you have any question - feel free to ask.
Well, there is some saying... there is Russia and there is an Moscow. I saw first hand an "modern" Moscow with look's like every other "western" type city. I prefer Sankt Petersburg as it is more... classic, nice looking city. But when I drive outside Moscow, just couple of km from it it's like other reality, like the time stop. I saw really, really poor and in bad shape small cities or villages. It's like, country's inside the country... there is an Moscow and there is an Russia.
DeleteBtw: Jesus you have Epic traffics in Moscow, just fucking legendary!
Delete@Btw: Jesus you have Epic traffics in Moscow, just fucking legendary!@
DeleteBggg. For fast traveling we have metro. But only strong survive there....))))
Yeah, I have whole collection of Dmitry Glukhovsky 'verse about Moscow Metro. :D Mutant's, cannibals, neonazis, communists, ghosts, monsters... only the strong survive there! :D
DeleteTo Mr NO, I don't know why you have portrayed the UKIP as some sort of dictatorial political group, they are the only party in the UK who actually care about the ordinary working man, they stand against the current crop of 1 percenters Oligarchs from the Tory's and Labour Elites, Bankers and Corporate whores who have been educated in the privileged and very private schools reserved for their off spring, they are certainly no friends of the EU or Russian Oligarchs so do a little research and stop believing everything written in the lame stream media.
DeleteBefore Ukrainian revolution i thought that revolution here in Russia is impossible, since most of the bright and active people simply left country during 90s, and that was left consisted mostly of working class retirees and, well, working class itself. But Ukrainian Maidan and Donbass have shown that russians/ukrainians actually can take weapons in their arms and kick government's butt hard.
ReplyDeleteAnd now Putin just fuck with its own people. Its simply ridiculous how far he had gone. Lets watch the timeline:
In Ukraine revolution have began.
Putin takes the opportunity and "spizdil" (russian slang word for opportunistic thievery) Crimea.
Oil prices dropped sharply, and dollars flow to Russia have greatly reduced.
How Putin reacts? He drasticaly tried to keep dollars from leaving Russia. So how he did it?
First. He completely destroyed russian tourism -- because when people left Russia as tourists they are spending precious dollars(euros/yuan), which russia can obtain only by oil(raw materials) trade. So almost all tourist companies "suddenly" was bankrupted during summer, to save precious dollars pool. Russia relies heavily on dollars/euro/yuan since no one would accept roubles as payment except Russia itself, since Russia does not produce anything except oil and few other raw materials.
Second. He imposed sanctions on its own people by banning export of quality food products from Europe, another attempt to stop dollars(euros) flowing away as payments for food imports. So russians now can't buy quality european food.
Third. When it has become obvious it wasn't enough, he dropped rouble course against dollar by almost HALF, effectivelly robbing his people blindly since almost all consumer products have coming from abroad and in dollar/euro/yuan prices attached, and people now must pay TWICE the prices, since their salaries remained in roubles. And since import of consumer products is reduced so is the dollar/euro/yuan payments for imported goods also reduced.
And now he is praying for oil prices raise since there is no other options left, except starting a nuclear war.
Now here in Russia only hardcore idiots, paid FSB trolls, and working class retiress (who still "living in USSR" on pitiful pensions, Crimea was a sign for them of USSR rebuilding) support Putin and his CrimeaIsOurs debacle, and revolution in near future becoming a high possibility.
Revolution? May be – but at my take in vast majority of variants a chauvinistic dictator will appear. And a lot of people will recall “Putin-who-eats-babies” with good and modest word, being sitting in trenches or bunkers...Bggggg. Revolution, my ass.....
ReplyDeleteAs someone said... Revolution is always a surprise. Nobody think it will happen and BANG your head is landing in the basket and the crowd cheer around the guillotine. And it always eat her children.
DeleteThe problem with revolution is that you can't control it, you can sometimes try to put an fire to the fuse but after that... you can only watch. And Revolution debt is payed with blood.
revolution in russia seems unlikely unless it is another of those foreigner instigated / provoked color revolution scam. the chance of revolution in russia over this economic problem is lower than the chance of americans revolting under obama/democrat endless crazy antics.. and i dont see american revolting today against their current obama goverment..
ReplyDeleteMy 2 cents to this conversation.
ReplyDeleteThe trend to give leaders a bigger/better majority than their predecessors seems to be catching on. Shizo Abe, Modi and even Tony abbot seems to be in the clear despite the criticism against him. Putin is one leader who shall continue with that trend.
Ok who will be a scapegoat for Christams?
ReplyDeleteRubel is going down so fast and so hard it soon you will say that "something dive like Rubel". So in classic move, Kreml need to find some scapegoat and throw it to lions. So we have three contenders:
- Elwira Nabiullina the Bank of Russia chief
- Igor Sieczin the chief of Rosnieft
- Dmitrij Miedwiediew the Prime Minister of Russian Federation
But there is option of no scapegoat... and this is going to be interesting.
@Rubel is going down so fast and so hard it soon you will say that "something dive like Rubel". So in classic move, Kreml need to find some scapegoat and throw it to lions. So we have three contenders:
Delete- Elwira Nabiullina the Bank of Russia chief
- Igor Sieczin the chief of Rosnieft
- Dmitrij Miedwiediew the Prime Minister of Russian Federation @
I guess everything will be pretty more simple – they just will double propaganda nerve-strain about “Ukrainian Nazi”.
"It is all fault of Ukrainian Nazis" is not became too overuse? How log you can press in to Russians throats "Nazis! Nazis everywhere!"?
DeleteThis may work for some time, but I think that time end some months ago and they need to throw something new that they can blame for everything. Do "Evil Western capitalists" still work? Or you see info' some new target?
Because it is obvious that gov' will not hit in the chest and say it is there fault right?
@is not became too overuse?@
DeleteNo, you underestimate, I guess, importance and actuality of the thematic to Russians, pan. Generally speaking, present depraved and degraded only about “Our Victory” can be proud of. And bottomless hatred against “Nazi” is another side of the aforesaid Proud.
"Evil Western capitalists" – not the word, pan! Good-old soviet “Rotten Western capitalists” forever! Bggggg
@Or you see info' some new target? @
Why? “Traitors-Ukrainians” and “aressive NATO” is more the enough.
@say it is there fault@
Fault in what, pan?
Ahhh... rotten, right! I was thinking that there was something other then "evil" but I was unable to recall it. For couple of years there was also popular the "reactionaries". Oh the propaganda department in Soviet Bloc was indeed very creative. :D
Delete@Why? “Traitors-Ukrainians” and “aggressive NATO” is more the enough.
Still working, huh? Nothing new?
@Fault in what, pan?
It is always a gov' fault, no mater what they do, it is always. Some scapegoat, some resignation and dismiss on some higher stools. Maybe "we played this wrong" or "we should done this in other way" or "we should seek some other ways"... you know, all this politics mumbo jumbo that would give them an option, a strategy of walk out this mess.
Some fun pic about Ruble-in-trouble
ReplyDeletehttp://muhom.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/rub.gif
Bggg
How did sanctions and currency manipulation work against Saddam? Or Castro? Or Chavez? Or Gaddaffi? Or Iran's Mullahs?
ReplyDeleteAny obvious external meddling in a country's finances/trade just gives their leaders perfect scapegoats (you) for all of their nation's problems. Basic human nature is to cling to your leaders when an external threat presents itself. Why we in the west fail to ever realize this in the face of continuing failures mystifies me to no end.
Saddam - dead
DeleteCastro - well... almost
Chavez - dead
Gadaffi - dead
Iran - more or less ok
So... in 3 to 2 win.
Saddam - Captured and killed after US Invasion of Iraq
DeleteCastro - Survived complete embargo (and assassination attempts) just fine.
Chavez - Probably assassinated, but may have simply died of cancer.
Gadaffi - Captured, raped, and killed by US funded paramilitaries supported by bombing campaign.
Iran - Has ISIS to worry about, but OK otherwise.
As far as SANCTIONS go, that's 0 for 5. Sanctions didn't kill Saddam or Gadaffi, troops on the ground did. You know, good old fashioned invasions.
If you want to change a regime without an invasion, leveraging an internal revolution by funding dissident groups is still the only viable option (see Egypt and other 'color revolutions').
Delete100% agree, Sanctions could work vs capitalist free societies but they don’t dissuade or bring down totalitarian governments, dictators can weather economic crisis pretty well, N. Korea and Venezuela are the best examples, any of those counties is a ruin but the ruling parties are still in power. Color revolutions seem to “work” only in Ultra third world corrupt countries with buffoon governments and serious activity of foreign subversive agents: Ukraine, Syria and Egypt are basket cases for this. And I mean “work” because those revolutions rarely last, see Egypt and its Muslim brotherhood now and I’m sure the we still delude ourselves by thinking Europe will accept a third world corrupt hellhole regime in Ukraine won’t last long.
DeleteI have limited knowledge of Russia, but it doesn’t seem to fit in the ultra-third world corrupt country, sure it’s not a land of abundance and is pretty corrupt but it is not in the same league of Ukraine, Egypt, Libya and those shitholes. With regards of the chance of a color revolution, I see a lot of nails being pulled off and a lot of foreign agents and 5th column Russians being found in the trunks of old cars in the outskirts of Moscow and St Petersburg before it happens. The only way to bring down Putin is through force, but that will end in a metro 2033 scenario.
And finally, I don’t want to sound like a rabid Pro-Putin because I’m not, but in the sanctions war I see
Europe giving up first; their economy is in shambles since 2008 and sanctions cut both ways. We see in the news how the Russian economy is leaking billions, but they don’t tell about the billions being lost in Europe too and the political crisis that is festering in some EU members.
Now smart, proud, happy with CrimeaIsOurs working class russian citizens begin to running in circles and pulling hair from their heads and heads of their neighbours in the lines to buy dollars.
ReplyDeleteBasically Putin now have two options:
Exterminate Donbass pest infestation, and start trading nuclear warheads for dollar credits, untill no more than 30-40 ballistic missiles would left in Russia in 10 to 20 years.
Or go North Korea variant -- make a nuclear show, like launching live nuclear missile to Pacific or somewhere else like the North Pole, Moon, etc. Then start full scale assault on Ukraine, up to EU borders and hello Cold War 2.
It will be large Putin's press conference today. Interesting, which will be "the White tzar's word".....
ReplyDeletepromo clip of the conference
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xai7ttzbx5M
Good. Putin mostly said nothing new. May be new was only about presented Turkey as a very promising partner and possible help to Greece and Turkey in resolving of Cyprus-issue. He didn’t declared preparations to global war.
DeleteIndeed nothing new or no surprise. Everything is Milk & Honey, we need two years and everything will be more milk & honey. Two questions and answers were for me pretty interesting. First about possible "palace revolution" on high levels of Kremlin... answer was hilarious! I did not know that President Putin have such sense of humor... the answer was: We don't have palaces and Kremlin is well secured. :D
DeleteAnd the second one... this is worry's me. There was an answer about Russian planes that constant test the NATO borders including violation of air space, (this is not a mystery that Russian planes jump-in jump-out for some time to airspace of Balts or Sweds and Fins, classic game of nerves) and the answer was: Russia do not attack anyone it's only protect own businesses... classic newspeak. And it can never be accuse to be a provocateur or aggressor.
The translation was not perfect, If I made mistake somewhere info' can you correct me?
Translation is correct, pan. I was afraid that Putin declares claim of global leadership or starts “enemies-around-us” and “find a spy” hysteria. Today is a right in political sense moment for such declaration. But thanks to God it didn’t happen. If you want I can translate with google text translation of Putin’s conference (the moment which can be interesting for foreigners) and post it here.
DeleteIt would be good, some nuances of Russian language sometimes escape me and I may interpret it in wrong way.
DeleteBtw: you had ever drink that now famous "Wiatskij"? :D
Yeah, It was period I visit Kirov (old name – Vyatka) very often. And once I’ve met a demonstration of Kirovsk’s brewery employees, I was very surprised, I remember. It was the first demonstration for PR I’d ever seen. That question about Kvas was just a next “genius” PR action of Kirovsk’s brewery, but the first time in federal (or even international?)
DeleteAnd of course, I’ve tested both beer and kvas in Kirov. I can’t say I was impressed.