This is a follow on "quick thoughts" about my previous article regarding the preparations for a new ground war in Iraq that are becoming public.
1. We've heard reports of armor movement in Iraq. Those reports have been confirmed and a reader has told me that elements of the 3rd Infantry Division are heading to Iraq in Feb.
2. Its been announced that at least 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd are heading to Iraq in January.
3. As usual the Marine Corps has an MEU in the region. The Marine Forces in the region have been plus'ed up by a Fleet Anti-Terrorism Team Company (+), an enhanced SPMAGTF-CR and an enlarged Marine Security Guard detachment at the embassy.
Which leaves me with a question.
What is the coalition for this coming offensive against ISIS going to look like and who is going to participate in it?
1. If past is prologue then we know that the Obama Administration will not go to war alone. They will however enthusiastically engage in warfare if it has the blessing and participation of the international community.
2. The American people are tired of war. More specifically they're tired of Iraq and Afghanistan. Speaking for myself, they're an ungrateful people, they've squandered our sacrifice and our money and there leaders have acted stupidly. Selling the war to US citizens will be difficult. Even liberal media will be hard pressed to do so. Conservative media will of course bang the war drums but it will still be a hard lift.
3. Saudi Arabia is the country most at risk if Iraq splits in two...with Turkey being jeopardized if it splits into three. That means that both those countries must be getting the bums rush to deploy ground troops.
I see it like this. The Gulf nations will all participate as will Turkey. Each will have their own motives but it all stems from a fear of Iran. I also expect to see the Eastern European NATO countries continue to punch above their weight and send forces to participate. France is in because it seen the ISIS threat at home. Italy and Spain will send forces because.
In the end I think we'll be hearing an announcement in maybe March or April of a new offensive against ISIS with the President claiming that the coalition that he's built is larger than the one Bush was able to bring together for the 2nd Gulf war. It goes without saying that he will claim that we will have the bare minimum of forces required to achieve our objective and we'll be told that military commanders fully support the size of the force.
You heard it here first.
The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States:
ReplyDeleteIs a vital national security interest threatened?
Do we have a clear attainable objective?
Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
Is the action supported by the American people?
Do we have genuine broad international support?
Haven't heard anything about 3rd ID going to Iraq. Ive been told 4th ID is replacing 1st ID here at camp Buerhing. They will send soldiers to Iraq. The heaviest Armor is up armored humvees and probably some MRAPs in Iraq. BIAP hasn't received IDF in two years. The biggest threat to Americans in Iraq right now is Shia militants. They've been fighting ISIS but hate Americans also. They make threats saying they will attack but never do. A few VBEDs here and there within a few months and that's it. ISIS is all up North and between them and BIAP is thousands of Iraqi soldiers and SF including ours.
ReplyDelete*cough* *ahem* Iran?
ReplyDeleteGeneral Petraeus on Iraq as "fragile and reversible."
ReplyDelete--WaPo, September 7, 2007--General Petraeus’s view is considered overly cautious by some other senior military officials and some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. But they said it reflected his concern that the security gains made so far in Baghdad, Anbar Province and other areas were fragile and easily reversed.
--sinodaily, Dec 23, 2007--"Obviously, we want to reduce the strain on our ground forces as much as we can while recognizing that what has been achieved here remains tenuous and is still fragile in a number of areas," Petraeus said on Fox News Sunday.
--limun, Dec 28, 2007--Iraq has pulled back from the brink of civil war, but recent security gains are fragile and still reversible, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said on Saturday.
--Reuters, Dec 29, 2007--Assessing the overall security situation in Iraq, Petraeus said progress toward curbing sectarian violence was "tenuous in many areas and could be reversed".
--humanevents, Mar 6, 2008--Citing the reduction in violence in most areas of Iraq in the past six to eight months, a confident but cautious Gen. David Petraeus told me Thursday that the progress in Iraq is both tenuous and reversible.
--WaPo, April 9, 2008--During a day of hearings against the backdrop of a heated campaign for the White House, Petraeus called security in Iraq "significantly better" than before last year's troop buildup but still "fragile and reversible."
--NYTimes, Aug 20, 2008--“It’s not durable yet. It’s not self-sustaining,” he added. “You know — touch wood — there is still a lot of work to be done.”
--Fox News, April 24, 2009--Progress in Iraq is still "fragile and reversible," Gen. David Petraeus warned Friday after back-to-back homicide bombings killed nearly 80 people one day earlier in Iraq's deadliest day in more than a year.
--Reuters, Mar 16, 2010--"The progress in Iraq is still fragile. And it could still be reversed," Petraeus told a Senate hearing.
"The American people are tired of war. More specifically they're tired of Iraq and Afghanistan. Speaking for myself, they're an ungrateful people, they've squandered our sacrifice and our money and there leaders have acted stupidly. Selling the war to US citizens will be difficult. Even liberal media will be hard pressed to do so. Conservative media will of course bang the war drums but it will still be a hard lift.
ReplyDeleteWell said Solomon
"Even liberal media will be hard pressed to do so."
ReplyDeleteNo they won't. They'll just blame it on Bush.
Bush's toxic legacy in Iraq: http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/13/opinion/bergen-iraq-isis-bush/
Rand Paul: Blame Bush not Obama: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/380933/rand-paul-blame-bush-not-obama-eliana-johnson
Obama Blames Bush for ISIS: http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2014/09/17/obama-blames-bush-isis/