This is a follow on "quick thoughts" about my previous article regarding the preparations for a new ground war in Iraq that are becoming public.
1. We've heard reports of armor movement in Iraq. Those reports have been confirmed and a reader has told me that elements of the 3rd Infantry Division are heading to Iraq in Feb.
2. Its been announced that at least 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd are heading to Iraq in January.
3. As usual the Marine Corps has an MEU in the region. The Marine Forces in the region have been plus'ed up by a Fleet Anti-Terrorism Team Company (+), an enhanced SPMAGTF-CR and an enlarged Marine Security Guard detachment at the embassy.
Which leaves me with a question.
What is the coalition for this coming offensive against ISIS going to look like and who is going to participate in it?
1. If past is prologue then we know that the Obama Administration will not go to war alone. They will however enthusiastically engage in warfare if it has the blessing and participation of the international community.
2. The American people are tired of war. More specifically they're tired of Iraq and Afghanistan. Speaking for myself, they're an ungrateful people, they've squandered our sacrifice and our money and there leaders have acted stupidly. Selling the war to US citizens will be difficult. Even liberal media will be hard pressed to do so. Conservative media will of course bang the war drums but it will still be a hard lift.
3. Saudi Arabia is the country most at risk if Iraq splits in two...with Turkey being jeopardized if it splits into three. That means that both those countries must be getting the bums rush to deploy ground troops.
I see it like this. The Gulf nations will all participate as will Turkey. Each will have their own motives but it all stems from a fear of Iran. I also expect to see the Eastern European NATO countries continue to punch above their weight and send forces to participate. France is in because it seen the ISIS threat at home. Italy and Spain will send forces because.
In the end I think we'll be hearing an announcement in maybe March or April of a new offensive against ISIS with the President claiming that the coalition that he's built is larger than the one Bush was able to bring together for the 2nd Gulf war. It goes without saying that he will claim that we will have the bare minimum of forces required to achieve our objective and we'll be told that military commanders fully support the size of the force.
You heard it here first.
