It looks like to be MON-50 (or 90) anti-personnel mine, then Grad. Of course Ukrainians cry about Grad, because the bus was hit near Ukrainian road-post. I would not be surprised if Ukrainians find near the bus a paper with Putin’s order in writing to hit the bus. https://pp.vk.me/c623928/v623928796/13b79/4iKJVXgqVYc.jpg
There is also other theory, that day the same road ride buses with Polish descendants that were evacuated from Donetsk to Poland. The convoy did move through the same spot early and it was possible the sepps did hit the bus for purpose not by mistake.
I would not be sure about the mine, the level of shrapnel holes are to high for a MON-50, maybe if it would be put there on the specific angle, it would be more a job of MON-100 with much higher power but again, the shrapnel zone of MON-100 is smaller and more "point" oriented. Hours earlier buses with Polish descendants ride exactly the same road, thy would trigger the possible mine if it was there. I would say it was more an... I don't know if that was an missile from Grad, the damage is rather low for HE warhead of 18-20kg of explosive. It's look more like mortar or lighter artillery shell. Or maybe the explosion was not that close... or something.
Offtop: info' can you confirm some information's? Rosnieft hold his arctic operations (building of logistic and transportation centers on the shore of Kola Bay) because he lack of own cash and the cash from budget were move from Murmansk region to Crimea. In other words, Crimea just eat the money for Arctic expansion.
a quote that I could not help think of when reading Info-Infanterie's 'theory':
"The internet troll army’s selling of the Kremlin’s parallel universe to the Russian people and to a skeptical Western audience is a matter of life and death for the Putin regime."
I don't agree with that statement in relation to info' Meint. He show many times that he is NOT a Kremlin troll and even if we don't agree in some cases are treat him as reliable and objective commentator.
Of course, he can be a very sneaky, highly professional spec ops troll, then hat's from heads before him ;D
you can clearly see it ain´t a result of grad. Unless you are a complete dumbass @Meint Veldman
Visual comparison between what GRAD does to bus and this incident:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7QcRVOCMAA1trk.jpg
Though i'm sure this is "The internet troll army’s selling of the Kremlin’s parallel universe to the Russian people and to a skeptical Western audience is a matter of life and death for the Putin regime." Right Meint Veldman my dear fucking dummy ?
- Mine explode zone is UP! not on the sides, if it is a classic trip mine. - If that was a mine... bus stand one the road not one the side where the mines are, so how he can ride on the mine... not being on the mine field. - Direction mine, as info' point the MON-50 is a direction mine... it detonate in the direction of enemy, one direction. And the shrapnel's entry's are to high for close detonation of it, also... who would point mine in direction of OWN checkpoint, the bus is behind the roadblock in the checkpoint zone... inside your zone. direction mine are directed in to enemy... not yourself. - I admit that Grad version is rather... dubious, not too much damage for a 20kg warhead. More it was a mortar round.
to Shas Hmmm, I do not keep an eye carefully on the situation with Rosneft’ arctic shelf projects, I’ve a formed opinion that these projects now are greatly more for geopolitic and PR, then economy. Plus may Rosneft’ tried to got more info about advanced western tech this way – because it looks like our conflict with the West was planned before by our elite. Why not? First they got access to strategic and tec info from Rosneft’s Western partners + some technical machinery, equipment and advisers support Then they closed projects “because of sanctions” and realize the project without Western partners. And why do you mind that Rosneft’ “hold his arctic operations”? One the official their site I found nothing about this (not a surprise of course). http://www.rosneft.ru/Upstream/offshore/
But here is November 214 (when sanctions were fully operational) info that Rosneft’ and Gazpromneft’ filed applications for additional plots (possible oil-bearing) in Arctic’s shelf for oil extraction – it doesn’t looks like they postponed the projects. http://www.rusdialog.ru/news/9597_1416304743
So now I’ve no clear basement to say that Rosneft’s Arctic projects were eaten with Crimea. But I can say what clearly was eaten: some infrastructural projects (huge ports, bridges and so on) and 30% rise of fixed salary for most part of military (the last is not an official info but my comrades say so)..
to Shas @Mine explode zone is UP! not on the sides, if it is a classic trip mine. @ “Jumping mine” or MON-type (or even a hand-made fougasse), located high in a tree’s crown (standard Russian-school approach for damage increasing). @not being on the mine field. @ Accident or special mine’s activation, the danger bus’s driver maneuver or after Grad’s barrage the bus stopped and people became to run outside and accidently in panic activate the minefield. @Direction mine, as info' point the MON-50 is a direction mine..@ Not obliged to be MON-50 (supposed striking element on of photos was too large, may be self-made fougasse with cylindrical bearings as striking elements) but a mine – no doubt. @More it was a mortar round.@ Too accurate holes, all bodies in one peace but with numerous hits (a pool of blood under the bus).
@And why do you mind that Rosneft’ “hold his arctic operations”? I hope google translate will help us with that, can you put that article thru it as it was about this topic and it will be faster that way I think. From PL to ENG... don't try to put that to RUS, it's hilarious in the other way I suppose it will be the same in that way. http://www.defence24.pl/analiza_krym-przejadl-pieniadze-na-arktyczna-ekspansje-rosji
@jumping mine After I some time I was also think about jumper, but it would need to explode very close to the bus and still it detonate on the belt level and we can see that spread was much wider... but indeed there is not too many of holes on low level. I don't think the jumper would also made that damage they are rather weak.
You know this may be something, the checkpoint was under attack... some round may land on the mines and detonate some or someone in fear run in to field not looking ant sign. And you right, mortar round would not create that much shrapnel and the one who can would devastate much more that bus.
Nah, cold don't trigger the mine... solid ice or heavy snow can, but not cold as temperature. Mines also don't react on tremors, they would explode every time some heavy equipment ride near it. You need a direct contact or hit the trip wire, optional a remote detonation.
Also the "black zone" from detonation near bus is too big for a jumper, it's look like Ukrainians are right it was a stray missile. Well whole salvo was seriously off the target as the camera is above the checkpoint and salvo mainly hit in the middle of... nothing.
The cold does detonate mines. It's happened before in WWII on the Oste Front and in Korea that I know of. Maybe the modern mines are sufficiently insensitive not to be bothered when the ground contracts.
Another thing that made me question the initial call of a Grad is that there is little or no frag pattern visible. No pieces of the rocket motor casing or fins. Something like that usually survives.
Also, if you look at the hole in the ground shown at 1:37 in Sol's video
And then compare it with this-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDhHqeqdqLw
All the Youtube detonations are right to left, perpendicular to the road.
Whereas Solomon's shows a hole, that is top to bottom, parallel to the road.
Am I supposed to believe that the rocket veered 90`, impacted, dug it's way through the snow and into the dirt yet did not crater out when it detonated and left no sign of a shrapnel fan TANGENTIAL to the bus?
Low temperature will not detonate mine M&S, it will probably stop the detonation as it's can "freeze" some parts like the touch palette on classic mine. In Eastern front or Korea mines sometimes detonate after palettes were push by gathering ice or heavy snow. But not by temperature, some mines can explode after prolong exposure of hot climate. It is a material defect, but not from cold.
It can be BM-21, it can be ordinary artillery, about the pieces of rocket the number of pictures don't concentrate on place of explosion but mainly on bus. Also the vid' are rather poor quality to determine if we see some derbies or not.
I saw the BM-21 in action... believe me, it is rather accurate weapon for an rocket artillery system. But sometimes it act's weird. Especially when you shoot in a very fast way, in proper salvo between rockets need to be some time of pause, as they are not too... precise in fly they can hit each other if fire too fast. Saw that once, manually launch and wrong order of fire, human mistake. Rocket from one barrel launch almost at once after rocket in barrel beside it. And they collide after some sec of fly, one fly in one direction second drop immediately. Sometimes whole salvo is in target... but one explosion is far of to the right or left.
I don't say it was the exactly the same problem in that case, or even that it was a BM-21 strike. But it is possible that rocket venture that far off and hit solid way from others.
to Shas @Even if they would cut off the gas@ Aside “Ukrainian pipe” we have Nord stream and “Belarussian pipe”, if I got it right the “cut” was mentioned only about “Ukrainian pipe”. @Russia would risk HUGE financial compensations@ At my take Russia and the West are in the proxy-hybrid war now – so I don’t exclude possibility that Russia will refuse to pay any debts in the Future in the way: “Need our money? Come and take If you have balls steel enough!”. In case of war agreements mean nothing, and we have all possibilities to exchange the current “proxy- hybrid war” for low-intensity direct war – if NATO steps on Ukrainian soil. @European nations gather pretty large stockpiles of natural gas in reserves@ I’ve read that Gazprom talks now only about 2018 year – that transit contract through Ukraine in EU will not be prolonged after this ending in 2018.
Shas the mines could be proxy fused. They might've just set some up to close to the road.UAF isn't exactly known for competence. Would explain why the UAF are carrying them, probably got told to remove a bunch of similar ones.
see this pic. http://sf.uploads.ru/m1dQc.jpg
You do raze a point that it might have been a mortar. And you might be right i'm not familiar with mortars.
Pretty sound analysis, going as far as to state there were at least 3 GRAD launchers used, also, shows the direction of the attack, as well as maps visible explosion craters on the map http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/volnovakha.html
@At my take Russia and the West are in the proxy-hybrid war now – so I don’t exclude possibility that Russia will refuse to pay any debts in the Future in the way: “Need our money? Come and take If you have balls steel enough!”.
C'mon info' we both know that the politics of Kremlin put all cards on resources export, slave whole nation GDP to that and it was a great mistake by long term. The Saudis hit one button and whole Russian economy is on brink of collapse... yeah it was cool for all those Oligarchs to multiple own cash by selling oil and gas and not thinking about what happen if something like that happen. Russia need the hard cash from Europe more then Europe need the oil&gas from Russia. That cash is the only thing that help Russian budget exist... for now.
But of course... you made a good point, nothing erase debts as good old war, history proven solution.
@Robert Yes, mines can be proxy fused, but I doubt they were in that place. This is a checkpoint, lot's of move and it would detonate sooner then later in that place. Mere hours earlier large, couple of buses convoy wast riding thru that checkpoint and nothing happen.
@Andrius That's indeed a very solid analysis, very interesting. I think they may be right about that.
on the surface it looks like politics but i don't know whats going on with that. seems like the Navy is giving up quite a bit of capability and getting not much in return. all i know is something is going on....some type of procurement trade...ok you buy this which means you don't have to buy that....or if we buy this then you don't bitch about us not getting that.
i need more info but the news was all over the place so no need to repeat it here.
Wait the Navy is doing WHAT?!!! How did I miss that?! If there is a negotiation process going on this there must be a huge cut to the F-35C orders to compensate for that. More V-22's means lowered costs for the USMC and USAF.
Sol, V-22 has some advantages over the C-2. The primary one is that they can do single craft logistics. Instead of trucking things in on a C-2 and then offloading to a helicopter to move it to other ships, the V-22 can do it all. Apparently this greatly simplified logistics in AFG and also significantly reduced delays (1 day personnel/material delivery vs 2). Payload wise the V-22 also trumps the C-2. The main advantage of the C-2 is cost (even though it would require significant rework to keep flying, new wings and engines from the E-2D program) and volume.
not buying it. that cargo advantage only applies to external sling loads...if you have to stuff it inside then the C-2 is better. additionally the cost is enormous as far as maintenance is concerned and that should be a factor if the Navy is being honest. additionally the simplified logistics angle doesn't make a bit of sense considering how the Navy operates. they're not shelving MH-60's to make room for the V-22, they're shoving aside the C-2. so the direct from shore to ship angle just isn't that big a deal to explain this.
the Navy is playing a weird angle here. what it is i don't know but i'll hold fire on the entire thing till i get a better feel for whats going on. as things stand now i'm in T.Robs camp and expect some type of gamesmanship going on along with some high level horsetrading.
The V-22 can do single-craft logistics, but at 3x the cost for something like 1/3 - 1/2 of the internal cargo weight. Sling the load, and the range advantage all but disappears. Makes no sense to go that way unless the Navy is bargaining for something much better in another area. Can't be a tradeoff for the F-35 though, because the Osprey is a Boeing product, not a LockMart one.
Definitely political. The Marines have been lobbying for this for years, although there was an unfulfilled Navy requirement for 48 or so V-22s at some point (like when there is actual funding available.) They need to keep volume in the production lines to get another MYP contract so the unit price is not as insanely expensive as it is. It's interesting that the MOU talks about 4 airframes over 3 FYs - that's only 12 aircraft - not enough to replace the C-2s which are good out to 2027 or so. The *only* positive point for the HV-22 (a new type that needs to be developed btw) is a possible long range SAR role - or even a TRAP role with additional embarked Marines. Still cannot fit a F135 internally, although it can fit a F414.
Marines back the USN CVN-78 buildout, Navy backs the USMC, 11 hull, LHA-6 class... Navy gets to stick with Super Hornets, Marines get to run with 600+ stealth fighters to keep the budgets balanced. Marines F-35B can't fly from Navy decks, so the latter service doesn't call The Corps up with orders to get their dilapidated Hornets together for another OEF type surge deployment.
Any request for Marine Air thus has to include the F-35B, something which they were explicitly told 'not needed or wanted' in the 2001 deployment with Harriers.
The HV-22 is the only airframe that can deliver spares to a CVE configured helicopter cruiser with 25 F-35B on-deck, no pendant and no catapult facility.
The USN gets to pay for it. And likely a pressurization scheme as well since the ability to fly over the weather without making the seadogs sick or dead with turbulence and icing in the 15-25K foot weather band also translates to seriously longer legs.
The Marines like pressurization because it lets them put a small AEW&C radar on the platform and helps bring the (already tested) Osprey Tanker out of the weeds.
Of course, none of this is going to work half as well as the dedicated systems on a real carrier and the 25 F-35 airwing in particular is not enough to maintain an adequate FORCAP and Beachhead CAS force, let alone a mixed attack with STOM ops.
I'm no expert, but it looks more like a straight artillery shell barrage to me. Where are the rocket trails? Wouldn't you see them traveling for a few frames before they hit? Whenever I've seen GRAD footage, there's always this huge smoke trail leading back to the launchers.
Two things... first about that vid'... eeee where is that bus standing? I for real can't see it.
Second... SandWyrm what Grad footage?, the only smoke is generated in the start moment, when rocket leave the launcher it fuel is burn up and it fly just like any other shell... without smoke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjKA-Yt2Mc0 look at 1:10 (I know this is not BM-32, but it will show you how look an explosion of rocket that was fired from rocket launcher... you see any smoke?)
Solomon: It was not a Grad, was a mine. It happened in a place where Novorrussian artillery did not reach. Many were killed by rifle shots. http://voenkor.info/content/5625 Confirmed in other places on the Web. Off-topic: In many countries, with much less would have been a military coup to restore the order of things: https://twitter.com/CalFreedomMom/status/555429544891408384/photo/1 Excuse the intrusion. Alexandre. :-)
Andrius Juozapaitis & Shas: My business is not controversial. I am Brazilian, I live in Annapolis, is 148 km from Brasilia, capital of Brazil. Brazil is assimilating an insane amount of refugees years. Lately Syrians, Haitians, Lebanese, but nobody talks about it, see the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/noticias/2015/01/150113_sirios_refugiados_brasil_pai I have two good Ukrainian friends and polish here in town. I have three old Syrian friends with Turkish passport IIWW, many Italian Catholics etc. a city of 400,000 inhabitants. This is a small example of what is Brazil, a country where people with peace in mind can meet. Brazil has a negligible air force and navy, but there is one thing that no army can defeat the feeling of being Brazilian. Here the thing is messy? It is! The population is unarmed? It is! Many people die? Yup! Because many people die? Because children of a bitch must die (not live at the expense of our taxes!). I do not believe that the customary law has been withdrawn from the uman beings. Maybe something enlighten you with this text (google translate all): http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.br/2015/01/peculiarities-of-russian-national.html I do not know if you know but there are citizens who are not afraid of the state, I am one of those citizens. The "right" state ends when my "right". Yes, contest who offends me, retreat, rearmo, step over the motherfucker. The President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff is Úngara ancestry, was tortured during the military dictatorship by people trained in the School of the Americas managed by the CIA as well as a lot of people in power in Latin America today. My father was segregated at work for not allied to the "status quo" military strongly linked to the financial interests of the US (it was a safety inspector of a major oil refinery, was a union leader). My father was a Nationalist, which is the Brazilian should stay with us! He always said. I learned from my father, who takes a slap in the face never forget. Solomon is a great guy, a military like me, are respected military. He does not deserve to hear what I'm talking to some Trolls. If I'm sorry, Solomon, sincerity when writing these lines in your space. Best regards! Alexandre. :-)
Alexandre, whoever you are, whatever language you speak, wherever you live, common decency is common. You just pissed on the bodies of the people who died in that terrorist attack, by suggesting some conspiracy theories, while real and undeniable proof exists of the opposite. Also, you made no sense whatsoever in your reply, so you're either drunk, or on drugs, or just plain stupid.
I do not think six bottles of 300ml beer let me "drunk". I have never used drugs, whenever offered me my excuse was that I am too crazy with Marlboro and Vodka. My first text entry is explicit: Off-topic. "ProftelQuarta Monday January 14, 2015 02:33:00". Does not matter where I worked but I tell you, a person decaying very stinks and is very ugly watch a person die. Some cry as if the soul was cut off by forceps, others are sheep. It depends on where takes the projectile. The smell of blood never leaves your nose. Killing is easy, it is difficult to live with it. As for my answer, if you are using Google Translator, is easily assimilable. Solomon, again, sorry, you can delete them. No hard feelings. Alexandre.
Meanwhile, according to this report Russia has cut off the gas supply to six European countries, and it's cold.
"Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine amid accusations, according to The Daily Mail, that its neighbor has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas. Due to these "transit risks for European consumers in the territory of Ukraine," Gazprom cut gas exports to Europe by 60%, plunging the continent into an energy crisis "within hours."
Even if they would cut off the gas... and they can't do this as it is regulated by long term deal and Russia would risk HUGE financial compensations, not to mention risk of breaking that deals would additional hit the already butchered budget. As it was a rather warm last winter European nations gather pretty large stockpiles of natural gas in reserves. The biggest in years... so let's say even if Russia would cut off the gas on 100% in that case Poland would use own reserves of industrial gas after a YEAR.
And btw: in Europe... Russian gas is used in most cases as industrial poor grade one, not to warm homes. To do this nations use own gas.
This is the real story; Russia is threatening to stop supplying gas through Ukraine in a couple of years time, they (Russia) wants to open a new gas stream to Europe with Turkey acting as the hub.
That's nothing new, they speak about that for months... first it was an South Stream option but after sanctions the SS go to the trash. Now they try to cut the costs and join it to the Turkey pipe lines... and Turkey are not too enthusiastic about that. On the other hand there are plans... no, wrong word... idea, for Jamal 2 that would put more gas thru Belarus and Poland towards other EU nations.
For now, those information's have a only a propaganda value. When they put actions where the words for now only exists we will see what happens.
It was not a Grad it was artillery. Could be 130mm but probably 152mm with 7 to 8 kg of explosive in HE-FRAG shell a Grad has 21 to 25 kg of HE. Look how small the crater is. A Grad would have a much larger crater. The video shows an artillery barrage and the recoil shifted the alignment of one howitzer so the follow up shot fell short.
Don't you think there is too many explosions for a classic artillery? They need to gather rather large number of barrels to fire on this checkpoint (an miss like hell).
It's possible for one gun to fire 3-5 shells at different arcs, such that they all land at the same time. So we may only be talking about 3-5 actual artillery pieces here.
Again, I'm not an expert in these things, but GRAD explosions seem to be a bit smokier on impact.
Of course that it is possible... but for that you need a rather sophisticated ballistic computer. Only some part of artillery systems on word in fact do this and this is rather a skill of professional artillerymen with proper equipment. For now we seen only an not too complicated artillery systems like simple like brick BM-21 mainly in use by Russians in Ukraine. They would be able to use own advance artillery guns from the other side of the border but for now... you can see for yourself, they target the checkpoint right? And where the bulk of salvo land?
Fragmentary warhead SandWyrm that "glide" to the target, they don't have that big warhead you know, it's effect in large number of rockets not the power of the single one. At least in classic multiple BM-21.
Damn those quality... but three points: 1 - driver reaction, he run away after the explosion so he is scare as shit that barrage is coming his way... 2 - a sec or two before the explosion you can see that someone near the bus is jumping in the right side, also probably the reaction for shelling... 3 - now we can exactly see where was the explosion and how strong it was, too big for mine and the "fire" is from surface detonation
A stray missile... fuck, this is the literally "bad place, bad time" for the people in that bus. Imagine if that whole salvo was off and it land inside this whole queue to the checkpoint.
You got to be kidding me at 1:13 you can see person running from the bus in direction of minefield, after which we can see explosion - which is drastically different from a GRAD missile for fuck sake but of a MON-90.
I don't know how fast you run Robert... but probably even Bolt would not "jump" in one second from standing to the place where explosion was.
Your proof... you are serious or you make joke from that?
Picture number one show NOTHING! only the sign of mine field... is that proof that there was a mine field? Great proof that proven nothing. Picture number two show again NOTHING! something is laying inside blood and meat, SOMETHING, it can be anything but it's not the "killer trash" from MON-90. You know why? Because it's TOO BIG! You know how big is the trash from MON-90... it is the same size as trash from MON-100. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/MON-100_1_(ORDATA).jpg It is a very small piece of metal, thing on the picture is a lot bigger... and why only one? You know how much those shit is in mine? Picture three... Ukrainian soldier holding direct mine, this is the proof that they have a direct mine. Nothing more, and where is the logic of putting a DIRECT mine front to the OWN CHECKPOINT.
You try to prove something that was already proven as rocket strike and confirm by OSCE mission that was there and check the site. It was a stray rocket not a mine.
Only one thing Shas... I´m not sure It was a "stray" rocket. Terrorism works by infunding fear among civilians. Afetr this attack, people will be afraid of this kind of checkpoint, they will be afraid of using buses. Long story short: people will be afraid. This is terrorism. I do believe that it was no accident.
~Picture number one show NOTHING! only the sign of mine field... is that proof that there was a mine field? Great proof that proven nothing. ~
What ? No really what ? A picture show there was a minefield next to the bus and it proves nothing ?
No it proofs that there was a minefield. We also have a video of someone running into the minefield and a explosion that clearly looks not from a GRAD.
Also MON-90 =/= MON-100
if you bothered to read. The findings regarding the incident are not yet fully established. and if you bothered watching the video the explosion happened a lot closer then 15 or even to 12 meters proximity of the bus then that what is mentioned so i would hold of claiming as proven as rocket strike
-and where is the logic of putting a DIRECT mine front to the OWN CHECKPOINT. -
Not in front. . And I really have to mention why there was a minefield on the side of the road like that in the rear of the checkpoint ? Hint it has something to do with raiding units doing what they do best.
@Jacinto Taking in account where the rest salvo land, and that it was used to attack multiple rocket launcher of unguided rockets, it was stray one. You of course are right about possible motivation... it was still an shelling of a checkpoint full of civilians all the time.
@Robert
This is the proof that there was an minefield, nobody neglect that that's why it's proves nothing. If the Ukrainian side would denied existence of it then it would be a proof.
Someone run from it an in the same sec he jump in the direction of field we have an explosion, nobody is that fast. And it was NOT an explosion of direction mine... look at pattern it left on the ground, look at smoke and derbies in explosion, they are classic shape that wave travel in every direction. Not in one direction as it happen when direction mine explode.
Let me quote the OSCE statement:
"The SMM arrived at the location of the incident at 17:45hrs and witnessed the removal of two of the dead passengers from the bus. The bus had shrapnel damage consistent with a nearby rocket impact, estimated by the SMM to be 12-15 meters from the side of the bus."
Tell me Robert... you can run in 1-2 sec an 12-15 meters? And they say very precise... a NEARBY ROCKET IMPACT.
Mine field is on the both sides of road, that classic and normal strategy of defense of fortified position. Mines protecting flanks, road to the checkpoint in is the fire zone of the checkpoint, it is a kill zone. Nobody put an mines that are directed in to checkpoint, the are put in direction of the enemy not... your own place.
It looks like to be MON-50 (or 90) anti-personnel mine, then Grad. Of course Ukrainians cry about Grad, because the bus was hit near Ukrainian road-post. I would not be surprised if Ukrainians find near the bus a paper with Putin’s order in writing to hit the bus.
ReplyDeletehttps://pp.vk.me/c623928/v623928796/13b79/4iKJVXgqVYc.jpg
There is also other theory, that day the same road ride buses with Polish descendants that were evacuated from Donetsk to Poland. The convoy did move through the same spot early and it was possible the sepps did hit the bus for purpose not by mistake.
DeleteI would not be sure about the mine, the level of shrapnel holes are to high for a MON-50, maybe if it would be put there on the specific angle, it would be more a job of MON-100 with much higher power but again, the shrapnel zone of MON-100 is smaller and more "point" oriented. Hours earlier buses with Polish descendants ride exactly the same road, thy would trigger the possible mine if it was there. I would say it was more an... I don't know if that was an missile from Grad, the damage is rather low for HE warhead of 18-20kg of explosive. It's look more like mortar or lighter artillery shell. Or maybe the explosion was not that close... or something.
Offtop: info' can you confirm some information's? Rosnieft hold his arctic operations (building of logistic and transportation centers on the shore of Kola Bay) because he lack of own cash and the cash from budget were move from Murmansk region to Crimea. In other words, Crimea just eat the money for Arctic expansion.
Deletea quote that I could not help think of when reading Info-Infanterie's 'theory':
Delete"The internet troll army’s selling of the Kremlin’s parallel universe to the Russian people and to a skeptical Western audience is a matter of life and death for the Putin regime."
I don't agree with that statement in relation to info' Meint. He show many times that he is NOT a Kremlin troll and even if we don't agree in some cases are treat him as reliable and objective commentator.
DeleteOf course, he can be a very sneaky, highly professional spec ops troll, then hat's from heads before him ;D
@Of course, he can be a very sneaky, highly professional spec ops troll, then hat's from heads before him ;D@
DeleteBggg. I’m just Info-infanterie and do not hide this.
Btw: bus was standing inside the checkpoint zone, behind concrete blocks. who would put an direction attack mines targeting own zone?
Delete@Offtop: info' can you confirm some information's@
DeleteI'll respond later. Fucking job....
You can see how close minefield was to bus
Deletehttp://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/479693/479693_600.png
http://sf.uploads.ru/t/QTUFo.jpg
metal cylinder obviously from a mine
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/479756/479756_600.png
Shrapnel is too concentrated for grad fragmentation warhead
http://images.unian.net/photos/2015_01/1421158019-7613.jpg
you can clearly see it ain´t a result of grad. Unless you are a complete dumbass @Meint Veldman
Visual comparison between what GRAD does to bus and this incident:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7QcRVOCMAA1trk.jpg
Though i'm sure this is "The internet troll army’s selling of the Kremlin’s parallel universe to the Russian people and to a skeptical Western audience is a matter of life and death for the Putin regime." Right Meint Veldman my dear fucking dummy ?
You forget Robert about couple of things...
Delete- Mine explode zone is UP! not on the sides, if it is a classic trip mine.
- If that was a mine... bus stand one the road not one the side where the mines are, so how he can ride on the mine... not being on the mine field.
- Direction mine, as info' point the MON-50 is a direction mine... it detonate in the direction of enemy, one direction. And the shrapnel's entry's are to high for close detonation of it, also... who would point mine in direction of OWN checkpoint, the bus is behind the roadblock in the checkpoint zone... inside your zone. direction mine are directed in to enemy... not yourself.
- I admit that Grad version is rather... dubious, not too much damage for a 20kg warhead. More it was a mortar round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7e0oyomwpw&feature=youtu.be
Deletelooks like GRAD to me...
to Shas
DeleteHmmm, I do not keep an eye carefully on the situation with Rosneft’ arctic shelf projects, I’ve a formed opinion that these projects now are greatly more for geopolitic and PR, then economy. Plus may Rosneft’ tried to got more info about advanced western tech this way – because it looks like our conflict with the West was planned before by our elite. Why not? First they got access to strategic and tec info from Rosneft’s Western partners + some technical machinery, equipment and advisers support Then they closed projects “because of sanctions” and realize the project without Western partners.
And why do you mind that Rosneft’ “hold his arctic operations”?
One the official their site I found nothing about this (not a surprise of course).
http://www.rosneft.ru/Upstream/offshore/
But here is November 214 (when sanctions were fully operational) info that Rosneft’ and Gazpromneft’ filed applications for additional plots (possible oil-bearing) in Arctic’s shelf for oil extraction – it doesn’t looks like they postponed the projects.
http://www.rusdialog.ru/news/9597_1416304743
So now I’ve no clear basement to say that Rosneft’s Arctic projects were eaten with Crimea. But I can say what clearly was eaten: some infrastructural projects (huge ports, bridges and so on) and 30% rise of fixed salary for most part of military (the last is not an official info but my comrades say so)..
to Shas
Delete@Mine explode zone is UP! not on the sides, if it is a classic trip mine. @
“Jumping mine” or MON-type (or even a hand-made fougasse), located high in a tree’s crown (standard Russian-school approach for damage increasing).
@not being on the mine field. @
Accident or special mine’s activation, the danger bus’s driver maneuver or after Grad’s barrage the bus stopped and people became to run outside and accidently in panic activate the minefield.
@Direction mine, as info' point the MON-50 is a direction mine..@
Not obliged to be MON-50 (supposed striking element on of photos was too large, may be self-made fougasse with cylindrical bearings as striking elements) but a mine – no doubt.
@More it was a mortar round.@
Too accurate holes, all bodies in one peace but with numerous hits (a pool of blood under the bus).
@And why do you mind that Rosneft’ “hold his arctic operations”?
DeleteI hope google translate will help us with that, can you put that article thru it as it was about this topic and it will be faster that way I think. From PL to ENG... don't try to put that to RUS, it's hilarious in the other way I suppose it will be the same in that way. http://www.defence24.pl/analiza_krym-przejadl-pieniadze-na-arktyczna-ekspansje-rosji
@jumping mine
After I some time I was also think about jumper, but it would need to explode very close to the bus and still it detonate on the belt level and we can see that spread was much wider... but indeed there is not too many of holes on low level. I don't think the jumper would also made that damage they are rather weak.
You know this may be something, the checkpoint was under attack... some round may land on the mines and detonate some or someone in fear run in to field not looking ant sign. And you right, mortar round would not create that much shrapnel and the one who can would devastate much more that bus.
It's clearly cold out. Could that have triggered one of the mines?
DeleteI looked at the hole in the ground and that was my first thought. Jumper (Bounding/S-mine) goes off due to shock or ground compression..
Was the Grad strike close enough to the bus/mines to have caused the earth to tremor or did the passengers try to get out and take cover?
Alternately, has there been a list published of passengers? I'm thinking soldiers or functionaries for one of the outlying areas. A statement made.
Nah, cold don't trigger the mine... solid ice or heavy snow can, but not cold as temperature. Mines also don't react on tremors, they would explode every time some heavy equipment ride near it. You need a direct contact or hit the trip wire, optional a remote detonation.
DeleteAlso the "black zone" from detonation near bus is too big for a jumper, it's look like Ukrainians are right it was a stray missile. Well whole salvo was seriously off the target as the camera is above the checkpoint and salvo mainly hit in the middle of... nothing.
Shas,
DeleteThe cold does detonate mines. It's happened before in WWII on the Oste Front and in Korea that I know of. Maybe the modern mines are sufficiently insensitive not to be bothered when the ground contracts.
Another thing that made me question the initial call of a Grad is that there is little or no frag pattern visible. No pieces of the rocket motor casing or fins. Something like that usually survives.
Also, if you look at the hole in the ground shown at 1:37 in Sol's video
And then compare it with this-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDhHqeqdqLw
All the Youtube detonations are right to left, perpendicular to the road.
Whereas Solomon's shows a hole, that is top to bottom, parallel to the road.
Am I supposed to believe that the rocket veered 90`, impacted, dug it's way through the snow and into the dirt yet did not crater out when it detonated and left no sign of a shrapnel fan TANGENTIAL to the bus?
Something is not right there.
It's artillery or Grad, see the video:
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATP3U3M7Ho
It's not MON-50 splinter - if know MONs size, you don belive this stupid russian terrorists.
DeleteLow temperature will not detonate mine M&S, it will probably stop the detonation as it's can "freeze" some parts like the touch palette on classic mine. In Eastern front or Korea mines sometimes detonate after palettes were push by gathering ice or heavy snow. But not by temperature, some mines can explode after prolong exposure of hot climate. It is a material defect, but not from cold.
DeleteIt can be BM-21, it can be ordinary artillery, about the pieces of rocket the number of pictures don't concentrate on place of explosion but mainly on bus. Also the vid' are rather poor quality to determine if we see some derbies or not.
I saw the BM-21 in action... believe me, it is rather accurate weapon for an rocket artillery system. But sometimes it act's weird. Especially when you shoot in a very fast way, in proper salvo between rockets need to be some time of pause, as they are not too... precise in fly they can hit each other if fire too fast. Saw that once, manually launch and wrong order of fire, human mistake. Rocket from one barrel launch almost at once after rocket in barrel beside it. And they collide after some sec of fly, one fly in one direction second drop immediately. Sometimes whole salvo is in target... but one explosion is far of to the right or left.
I don't say it was the exactly the same problem in that case, or even that it was a BM-21 strike. But it is possible that rocket venture that far off and hit solid way from others.
to Shas
Delete@Even if they would cut off the gas@
Aside “Ukrainian pipe” we have Nord stream and “Belarussian pipe”, if I got it right the “cut” was mentioned only about “Ukrainian pipe”.
@Russia would risk HUGE financial compensations@
At my take Russia and the West are in the proxy-hybrid war now – so I don’t exclude possibility that Russia will refuse to pay any debts in the Future in the way: “Need our money? Come and take If you have balls steel enough!”. In case of war agreements mean nothing, and we have all possibilities to exchange the current “proxy- hybrid war” for low-intensity direct war – if NATO steps on Ukrainian soil.
@European nations gather pretty large stockpiles of natural gas in reserves@ I’ve read that Gazprom talks now only about 2018 year – that transit contract through Ukraine in EU will not be prolonged after this ending in 2018.
Shas the mines could be proxy fused. They might've just set some up to close to the road.UAF isn't exactly known for competence. Would explain why the UAF are carrying them, probably got told to remove a bunch of similar ones.
Deletesee this pic.
http://sf.uploads.ru/m1dQc.jpg
You do raze a point that it might have been a mortar. And you might be right i'm not familiar with mortars.
Pretty sound analysis, going as far as to state there were at least 3 GRAD launchers used, also, shows the direction of the attack, as well as maps visible explosion craters on the map
Deletehttp://ukraineatwar.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/volnovakha.html
@At my take Russia and the West are in the proxy-hybrid war now – so I don’t exclude possibility that Russia will refuse to pay any debts in the Future in the way: “Need our money? Come and take If you have balls steel enough!”.
DeleteC'mon info' we both know that the politics of Kremlin put all cards on resources export, slave whole nation GDP to that and it was a great mistake by long term. The Saudis hit one button and whole Russian economy is on brink of collapse... yeah it was cool for all those Oligarchs to multiple own cash by selling oil and gas and not thinking about what happen if something like that happen. Russia need the hard cash from Europe more then Europe need the oil&gas from Russia. That cash is the only thing that help Russian budget exist... for now.
But of course... you made a good point, nothing erase debts as good old war, history proven solution.
@Robert
Yes, mines can be proxy fused, but I doubt they were in that place. This is a checkpoint, lot's of move and it would detonate sooner then later in that place. Mere hours earlier large, couple of buses convoy wast riding thru that checkpoint and nothing happen.
@Andrius
That's indeed a very solid analysis, very interesting. I think they may be right about that.
Hey Sol, did you hear about the Navy replacing the C-2 Greyhound with the V-22? What are your thoughts on this decision?
ReplyDeleteon the surface it looks like politics but i don't know whats going on with that. seems like the Navy is giving up quite a bit of capability and getting not much in return. all i know is something is going on....some type of procurement trade...ok you buy this which means you don't have to buy that....or if we buy this then you don't bitch about us not getting that.
Deletei need more info but the news was all over the place so no need to repeat it here.
Wait the Navy is doing WHAT?!!! How did I miss that?! If there is a negotiation process going on this there must be a huge cut to the F-35C orders to compensate for that. More V-22's means lowered costs for the USMC and USAF.
DeleteSol, V-22 has some advantages over the C-2. The primary one is that they can do single craft logistics. Instead of trucking things in on a C-2 and then offloading to a helicopter to move it to other ships, the V-22 can do it all. Apparently this greatly simplified logistics in AFG and also significantly reduced delays (1 day personnel/material delivery vs 2). Payload wise the V-22 also trumps the C-2. The main advantage of the C-2 is cost (even though it would require significant rework to keep flying, new wings and engines from the E-2D program) and volume.
Deletenot buying it. that cargo advantage only applies to external sling loads...if you have to stuff it inside then the C-2 is better. additionally the cost is enormous as far as maintenance is concerned and that should be a factor if the Navy is being honest. additionally the simplified logistics angle doesn't make a bit of sense considering how the Navy operates. they're not shelving MH-60's to make room for the V-22, they're shoving aside the C-2. so the direct from shore to ship angle just isn't that big a deal to explain this.
Deletethe Navy is playing a weird angle here. what it is i don't know but i'll hold fire on the entire thing till i get a better feel for whats going on. as things stand now i'm in T.Robs camp and expect some type of gamesmanship going on along with some high level horsetrading.
This is political.
DeleteThe V-22 can do single-craft logistics, but at 3x the cost for something like 1/3 - 1/2 of the internal cargo weight. Sling the load, and the range advantage all but disappears. Makes no sense to go that way unless the Navy is bargaining for something much better in another area. Can't be a tradeoff for the F-35 though, because the Osprey is a Boeing product, not a LockMart one.
Definitely political. The Marines have been lobbying for this for years, although there was an unfulfilled Navy requirement for 48 or so V-22s at some point (like when there is actual funding available.) They need to keep volume in the production lines to get another MYP contract so the unit price is not as insanely expensive as it is. It's interesting that the MOU talks about 4 airframes over 3 FYs - that's only 12 aircraft - not enough to replace the C-2s which are good out to 2027 or so. The *only* positive point for the HV-22 (a new type that needs to be developed btw) is a possible long range SAR role - or even a TRAP role with additional embarked Marines. Still cannot fit a F135 internally, although it can fit a F414.
DeleteMarines back the USN CVN-78 buildout, Navy backs the USMC, 11 hull, LHA-6 class... Navy gets to stick with Super Hornets, Marines get to run with 600+ stealth fighters to keep the budgets balanced. Marines F-35B can't fly from Navy decks, so the latter service doesn't call The Corps up with orders to get their dilapidated Hornets together for another OEF type surge deployment.
DeleteAny request for Marine Air thus has to include the F-35B, something which they were explicitly told 'not needed or wanted' in the 2001 deployment with Harriers.
The HV-22 is the only airframe that can deliver spares to a CVE configured helicopter cruiser with 25 F-35B on-deck, no pendant and no catapult facility.
The USN gets to pay for it. And likely a pressurization scheme as well since the ability to fly over the weather without making the seadogs sick or dead with turbulence and icing in the 15-25K foot weather band also translates to seriously longer legs.
The Marines like pressurization because it lets them put a small AEW&C radar on the platform and helps bring the (already tested) Osprey Tanker out of the weeds.
Of course, none of this is going to work half as well as the dedicated systems on a real carrier and the 25 F-35 airwing in particular is not enough to maintain an adequate FORCAP and Beachhead CAS force, let alone a mixed attack with STOM ops.
It's artillery or Grad, see the video:
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATP3U3M7Ho
It's not MON-50 splinter - if know MONs size, you don belive this stupid russian terrorists.
DeleteMother holding dead child, both with gaping head wounds? That's plenty graphic Sol. Don't downplay it.
ReplyDeleteActually, disregard the above video link I posted above, here's the full one:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDhHqeqdqLw
no GRADs, riiiiight.
I'm no expert, but it looks more like a straight artillery shell barrage to me. Where are the rocket trails? Wouldn't you see them traveling for a few frames before they hit? Whenever I've seen GRAD footage, there's always this huge smoke trail leading back to the launchers.
DeleteTwo things... first about that vid'... eeee where is that bus standing? I for real can't see it.
DeleteSecond... SandWyrm what Grad footage?, the only smoke is generated in the start moment, when rocket leave the launcher it fuel is burn up and it fly just like any other shell... without smoke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjKA-Yt2Mc0 look at 1:10 (I know this is not BM-32, but it will show you how look an explosion of rocket that was fired from rocket launcher... you see any smoke?)
> Two things... first about that vid'... eeee where is that bus standing? I for real can't see it.
DeleteEnd of video, please
Frak believe or not it only the vid first time I launch it end at 1:40.
DeleteNow I see the rest, yep... explosion zone too big for mine, near shell explosion.
Grad barage
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDhHqeqdqLw#t=52
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7UpY7PCIAAWgyd.jpg
ReplyDeletereportedly it is fire in Donetsk airport region. I can comment only this way: aaaa, WTF, blyad’!!!!
Holy shit... they really take a pounding there. Ukrainians also move it's heavy hitters back in to airport range, now it is again play for two.
DeleteSolomon:
ReplyDeleteIt was not a Grad, was a mine.
It happened in a place where Novorrussian artillery did not reach.
Many were killed by rifle shots.
http://voenkor.info/content/5625
Confirmed in other places on the Web.
Off-topic:
In many countries, with much less would have been a military coup to restore the order of things:
https://twitter.com/CalFreedomMom/status/555429544891408384/photo/1
Excuse the intrusion.
Alexandre.
:-)
Die in a fire, you idiot
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDhHqeqdqLw
So it was the mine... that shoot people from rifle. Good one.
DeleteAndrius Juozapaitis & Shas:
DeleteMy business is not controversial.
I am Brazilian, I live in Annapolis, is 148 km from Brasilia, capital of Brazil.
Brazil is assimilating an insane amount of refugees years.
Lately Syrians, Haitians, Lebanese, but nobody talks about it, see the link:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/noticias/2015/01/150113_sirios_refugiados_brasil_pai
I have two good Ukrainian friends and polish here in town.
I have three old Syrian friends with Turkish passport IIWW, many Italian Catholics etc. a city of 400,000 inhabitants.
This is a small example of what is Brazil, a country where people with peace in mind can meet.
Brazil has a negligible air force and navy, but there is one thing that no army can defeat the feeling of being Brazilian.
Here the thing is messy? It is!
The population is unarmed? It is!
Many people die? Yup!
Because many people die? Because children of a bitch must die (not live at the expense of our taxes!).
I do not believe that the customary law has been withdrawn from the uman beings.
Maybe something enlighten you with this text (google translate all):
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.br/2015/01/peculiarities-of-russian-national.html
I do not know if you know but there are citizens who are not afraid of the state, I am one of those citizens.
The "right" state ends when my "right".
Yes, contest who offends me, retreat, rearmo, step over the motherfucker.
The President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff is Úngara ancestry, was tortured during the military dictatorship by people trained in the School of the Americas managed by the CIA as well as a lot of people in power in Latin America today.
My father was segregated at work for not allied to the "status quo" military strongly linked to the financial interests of the US (it was a safety inspector of a major oil refinery, was a union leader).
My father was a Nationalist, which is the Brazilian should stay with us!
He always said.
I learned from my father, who takes a slap in the face never forget.
Solomon is a great guy, a military like me, are respected military.
He does not deserve to hear what I'm talking to some Trolls.
If I'm sorry, Solomon, sincerity when writing these lines in your space.
Best regards!
Alexandre.
:-)
I don't get it... what this whole post have to do with the topic of "Bus attack"?
DeleteAlexandre, whoever you are, whatever language you speak, wherever you live, common decency is common. You just pissed on the bodies of the people who died in that terrorist attack, by suggesting some conspiracy theories, while real and undeniable proof exists of the opposite.
DeleteAlso, you made no sense whatsoever in your reply, so you're either drunk, or on drugs, or just plain stupid.
I do not think six bottles of 300ml beer let me "drunk".
DeleteI have never used drugs, whenever offered me my excuse was that I am too crazy with Marlboro and Vodka.
My first text entry is explicit: Off-topic.
"ProftelQuarta Monday January 14, 2015 02:33:00".
Does not matter where I worked but I tell you, a person decaying very stinks and is very ugly watch a person die.
Some cry as if the soul was cut off by forceps, others are sheep.
It depends on where takes the projectile.
The smell of blood never leaves your nose.
Killing is easy, it is difficult to live with it.
As for my answer, if you are using Google Translator, is easily assimilable.
Solomon, again, sorry, you can delete them.
No hard feelings.
Alexandre.
Alexandre, sua resposta ficou estranha e nada a ver com o tópico mesmo.
DeleteAlexandre your answer was kinda awkward and off topic.
Meanwhile, according to this report Russia has cut off the gas supply to six European countries, and it's cold.
ReplyDelete"Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine amid accusations, according to The Daily Mail, that its neighbor has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas. Due to these "transit risks for European consumers in the territory of Ukraine," Gazprom cut gas exports to Europe by 60%, plunging the continent into an energy crisis "within hours."
Poke the bear, and see what happens.
UPDATE:
DeleteUpon reflection, treat this with caution, consider but verify.. zerohedge has been wrong before.
Even if they would cut off the gas... and they can't do this as it is regulated by long term deal and Russia would risk HUGE financial compensations, not to mention risk of breaking that deals would additional hit the already butchered budget. As it was a rather warm last winter European nations gather pretty large stockpiles of natural gas in reserves. The biggest in years... so let's say even if Russia would cut off the gas on 100% in that case Poland would use own reserves of industrial gas after a YEAR.
DeleteAnd btw: in Europe... Russian gas is used in most cases as industrial poor grade one, not to warm homes. To do this nations use own gas.
The Daily Mail article is from 2009, shoddy journalism from Zero Hedge..
DeleteThis is the real story; Russia is threatening to stop supplying gas through Ukraine in a couple of years time, they (Russia) wants to open a new gas stream to Europe with Turkey acting as the hub.
Deletehttps://euobserver.com/news/127216
That's nothing new, they speak about that for months... first it was an South Stream option but after sanctions the SS go to the trash. Now they try to cut the costs and join it to the Turkey pipe lines... and Turkey are not too enthusiastic about that. On the other hand there are plans... no, wrong word... idea, for Jamal 2 that would put more gas thru Belarus and Poland towards other EU nations.
DeleteFor now, those information's have a only a propaganda value. When they put actions where the words for now only exists we will see what happens.
It's artillery or Grad, see the video:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATP3U3M7Ho
It's not MON-50 splinter - if know MONs size, you don belive this stupid russian terrorists.
ReplyDeleteIt was not a Grad it was artillery. Could be 130mm but probably 152mm with 7 to 8 kg of explosive in HE-FRAG shell a Grad has 21 to 25 kg of HE. Look how small the crater is. A Grad would have a much larger crater. The video shows an artillery barrage and the recoil shifted the alignment of one howitzer so the follow up shot fell short.
ReplyDeleteDon't you think there is too many explosions for a classic artillery? They need to gather rather large number of barrels to fire on this checkpoint (an miss like hell).
DeleteIt's possible for one gun to fire 3-5 shells at different arcs, such that they all land at the same time. So we may only be talking about 3-5 actual artillery pieces here.
DeleteAgain, I'm not an expert in these things, but GRAD explosions seem to be a bit smokier on impact.
Of course that it is possible... but for that you need a rather sophisticated ballistic computer. Only some part of artillery systems on word in fact do this and this is rather a skill of professional artillerymen with proper equipment. For now we seen only an not too complicated artillery systems like simple like brick BM-21 mainly in use by Russians in Ukraine. They would be able to use own advance artillery guns from the other side of the border but for now... you can see for yourself, they target the checkpoint right? And where the bulk of salvo land?
DeleteFragmentary warhead SandWyrm that "glide" to the target, they don't have that big warhead you know, it's effect in large number of rockets not the power of the single one. At least in classic multiple BM-21.
Where is rocket's remaining parts? There must be a lot of parts of rocket remaining after explosion.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/134636
ReplyDeleteinternational observers confirm grad shelling
Well, so it's confirmed by OSCE... now only a formality, simple triangulation of trajectory and we have place or region from where it was fired.
DeleteDash cam vid, reportedly fixed the moment of the bus being hit - from 1:00
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XATf-y9DmIk
Damn those quality... but three points:
Delete1 - driver reaction, he run away after the explosion so he is scare as shit that barrage is coming his way...
2 - a sec or two before the explosion you can see that someone near the bus is jumping in the right side, also probably the reaction for shelling...
3 - now we can exactly see where was the explosion and how strong it was, too big for mine and the "fire" is from surface detonation
A stray missile... fuck, this is the literally "bad place, bad time" for the people in that bus. Imagine if that whole salvo was off and it land inside this whole queue to the checkpoint.
The fuckers firing those grads need to put to the ground, pronto, along with the fucktard providing the ammo.
DeleteYou got to be kidding me at 1:13 you can see person running from the bus in direction of minefield, after which we can see explosion - which is drastically different from a GRAD missile for fuck sake but of a MON-90.
DeleteThe pictures further proof that
http://sf.uploads.ru/t/QTUFo.jpg
metal cylinder obviously from a mine
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/479756/479756_600.png
Shrapnel is too concentrated for grad fragmentation warhead.
And here's a ukr soldier near that ill fated bus with a MON-90 likely order to disarm them.
http://sf.uploads.ru/m1dQc.jpg
I don't know how fast you run Robert... but probably even Bolt would not "jump" in one second from standing to the place where explosion was.
DeleteYour proof... you are serious or you make joke from that?
Picture number one show NOTHING! only the sign of mine field... is that proof that there was a mine field? Great proof that proven nothing.
Picture number two show again NOTHING! something is laying inside blood and meat, SOMETHING, it can be anything but it's not the "killer trash" from MON-90. You know why? Because it's TOO BIG! You know how big is the trash from MON-90... it is the same size as trash from MON-100. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/MON-100_1_(ORDATA).jpg It is a very small piece of metal, thing on the picture is a lot bigger... and why only one? You know how much those shit is in mine?
Picture three... Ukrainian soldier holding direct mine, this is the proof that they have a direct mine. Nothing more, and where is the logic of putting a DIRECT mine front to the OWN CHECKPOINT.
You try to prove something that was already proven as rocket strike and confirm by OSCE mission that was there and check the site. It was a stray rocket not a mine.
Only one thing Shas... I´m not sure It was a "stray" rocket. Terrorism works by infunding fear among civilians. Afetr this attack, people will be afraid of this kind of checkpoint, they will be afraid of using buses. Long story short: people will be afraid. This is terrorism. I do believe that it was no accident.
Delete~Picture number one show NOTHING! only the sign of mine field... is that proof that there was a mine field? Great proof that proven nothing. ~
DeleteWhat ? No really what ? A picture show there was a minefield next to the bus and it proves nothing ?
No it proofs that there was a minefield. We also have a video of someone running into the minefield and a explosion that clearly looks not from a GRAD.
Also MON-90 =/= MON-100
if you bothered to read. The findings regarding the incident are not yet fully established. and if you bothered watching the video the explosion happened a lot closer then 15 or even to 12 meters proximity of the bus then that what is mentioned so i would hold of claiming as proven as rocket strike
-and where is the logic of putting a DIRECT mine front to the OWN CHECKPOINT. -
Not in front. . And I really have to mention why there was a minefield on the side of the road like that in the rear of the checkpoint ? Hint it has something to do with raiding units doing what they do best.
@Jacinto
DeleteTaking in account where the rest salvo land, and that it was used to attack multiple rocket launcher of unguided rockets, it was stray one. You of course are right about possible motivation... it was still an shelling of a checkpoint full of civilians all the time.
@Robert
This is the proof that there was an minefield, nobody neglect that that's why it's proves nothing. If the Ukrainian side would denied existence of it then it would be a proof.
Someone run from it an in the same sec he jump in the direction of field we have an explosion, nobody is that fast. And it was NOT an explosion of direction mine... look at pattern it left on the ground, look at smoke and derbies in explosion, they are classic shape that wave travel in every direction. Not in one direction as it happen when direction mine explode.
Let me quote the OSCE statement:
"The SMM arrived at the location of the incident at 17:45hrs and witnessed the removal of two of the dead passengers from the bus. The bus had shrapnel damage consistent with a nearby rocket impact, estimated by the SMM to be 12-15 meters from the side of the bus."
Tell me Robert... you can run in 1-2 sec an 12-15 meters? And they say very precise... a NEARBY ROCKET IMPACT.
Mine field is on the both sides of road, that classic and normal strategy of defense of fortified position. Mines protecting flanks, road to the checkpoint in is the fire zone of the checkpoint, it is a kill zone. Nobody put an mines that are directed in to checkpoint, the are put in direction of the enemy not... your own place.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete