Monday, January 05, 2015

Did the Ukrainian President signal more fighting?

via Interfax.
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has transferred more than 100 items of modernized military equipment, including armored vehicles, aircraft and weapon systems, to the country's army.
During the handover, which took place on Monday at a military range in Zhytomyr region, the president said that this was the third time in a month that the government has transferred armored vehicles, tanks, infantry fighting vehicle, howitzers, mortars, aircraft and other equipment to the military.
"I believe that 2015 will be a year of our victories and a year of peace. To achieve this we should have a strong, well-trained, and well-equipped patriotic Ukrainian army," Poroshenko said.
The president presented vouchers for 203-mm and 121-mm self-propelled howitzer complexes, 82-mm automatic grenade launchers, assault rifles "Fort", two MiG-29 and two Su-27 aircraft, and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle. "For the first time in many years, we hand over modernized aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said.
Poroshenko thanked employees of Zhytomyr Armored Plant, Kharkiv Automobile Repair Plant Shepetivka Repair Plant, and the Fort Research and Production Association for the repair and reconstruction of equipment.
That quote stood out to me.
"I believe that 2015 will be a year of our victories and a year of peace. To achieve this we should have a strong, well-trained, and well-equipped patriotic Ukrainian army,"
I'm not sure how careful his speech writers are but the need to emphasize victories as well as peace stood out for me.  It obviously stood out for the Interfax reporter as well.

Despite public statements by US and EU officials, it seems like the Ukrainian President is expecting continued fighting.

19 comments :

  1. Of course Poroshenko is not an independent actor. The US goal is regime change in Russia, so as to break up the growing Russia-China axis, and Ukraine is the agent for that. It will be a very expensive undertaking, but most of the cost is being borne by others (not the US) so that's a US benefit. The Ukraine economy requires huge infusions of cash. This will be a lengthy process, but the money is needed so the IMF and European bankers will have to fall in soon.

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    1. Tinfoil is strong with this one.

      Takint Putin down would be easy enough - thing is, no one wants him gone.

      He is many things but insane and emotionally driven person - there Russian political space has decayed and degenerated to the point only real, hardcore nationalists and idiots are an alternative.
      If someone like Girkin comes to power in Russia - we are sure to experience nuclear war in our life-time.

      And there is no Chinese-Russian axis - one shitty pipeline with meagre power and influence what change a thing in their relations. China views Russia as a potential sattelite, not a real alliance like EU-USA.

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    2. Pardon for typos - you do need edit button.

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    3. @China views Russia as a potential sattelite,@
      Agree. All our unions are for a while.

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  2. It seems to me like Poroshenko has pretty much announced that he has had enough of this shit. This very well might be the signal for an all out offensive against the pro-Russian forces.

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  3. ...

    This is Poroshenko coming out days before EU-Russia meets up to discuss the crisis.

    He knows that on battlefield he CANT and wont win - Ukraine was two-three days away from winning last summer but then Russian army de facto entered and smashed them in Ilovaysk.

    If they do try retaking Donetsk with force, they`ll loose again.

    This announcement is a deterent for DPR/LPR forces, saying ''we cant defear you but we can stop your advance''.

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  4. This Poroshenko call for an offensive comes after Russian and Ukrainian diplomats met in Berlin to try to advance a cease-fire for eastern Ukraine that’s been stalled for four months. However, from a news source--
    On Jan 4, Petro Poroshenko met with security forces, with the participation of Secretary of the Council Aleksander Turchynov. The meeting was attended by Minister of Defence of Ukraine, the chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of Ukraine Viktor Murzenko, the chief of the State border guard service of Ukraine Viktor Nazarenko, Minister of Information policy of Ukraine Yuriy stets, Advisor to the President of Ukraine, the representative of the volunteer organizations Yuri Biryukov, the head of the Anti-Terrorist center Vasyl Hrytsak. “The terrorist activity and their attempts to provoke the Armed Forces of Ukraine require our decisive action,” said Poroshenko. He instructed to intensify efforts for the liberation of the Ukrainian prisoners of war. “Thanks to the intelligence and security service we have information about the location and the number of our military who are now under arrest illegal armed groups. We must do everything for their immediate release,” he said. In turn, Turchynov said: " For a comprehensive anti-terrorism, crossing through the line of contact in the area of the ATO will be limited to 7 transport corridors, and all other paths will be blocked."

    Obviously Poroshenko, acting for the US as a puppet, wants to keep poking the bear. Unfortunately the Ukraine forces are mostly ineffective, except at shelling civilian housing.

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    1. Itd be great if alchoholic degenerates wouldnt fire on Ukraina army from residential areas and school backyards.

      You said exactly what I did - its a signal to Europe and Russia that while they havent given up, in case of anything their defensive capabilities are most likely enough to stop advance.

      Ukraine CANT win on battlefield and Poroshenko knows it - his words are deterent.

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  5. That whole "Novorossiya" start to die out, only the will of Kremlin make it afloat, barely.

    In last month's some more prominent or rather famous "leaders" start to die or run away to Russia. Striełkow run away to Russia and even say some bad things about presided Putin actions (he still alive or already did a suicide by shooting himself three times in the occiput as some famous joke state about suicides in Soviet Russia), some trusted field lieutenants from Igor Bezler squads, dead. Aleksandr Biednow killed with his bodyguards by "peoples militia". Some others disappear or there were some rumors that they were dead or wounded... but not on the "front".

    Borodaj couple of days ago said that Novorossiya was a failed experiment. Idea that died.

    In most cases there can be two possibilities.

    - First, the Kremlin start to purge all elements that they can't control or just want to disappear. Clean up operation. Pull out all assets and prepare to walk out from this situation or froze the conflict.

    - Second, this whole "idea" is just falling from inside. After the "revolution fever" the reality kick in the balls people there. Most of those "heroes" start to be a common criminals and fights between different groups are not mystery. It's like the badlands, law of gun. That mobilization separatist want to do in territory they control was probably (Ukrainians say that for sure, but... well at this moment, I don't trust them too much) total failure. So Kremlin need to put there more own forces and equipment to replace those forces they cant control or ware just killed.

    But if they put there more own forces they again start to have problems with own citizens opinion. They did a lot to tight iron grip over any type of opposition but... as I remember Russians generally support separatist but they are against openly sending soldiers there. Nothing surprising, probably the trauma of Afghanistan and Chechen is still strong in Russian peoples.

    Ukrainians are stronger every day, if Kremlin will cut out support and retreat own forces, seppos they will be rolled like bug on the asphalt pretty fast. But, where is a Kremlin breaking point... in what moment this whole mess will be too much a burden to them. Officially they denied that sun is shining in the day and not in the night... sooo, they still like in total "bullshit" mode. But this is also element of exit strategy... we are not part of that mess, if this all go to hell and Ukrainians retake those oblasts, this will be not our fault or defeat. Because... we are not side in this conflict.

    It's don't need to be smart... it's just need to work.

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    1. @Ukrainians are stronger every day, @
      On the one hand, I beg to differ, pan. Yes, Ukrainians show preparations in term of technical, tactic and fortifications. But not with manpower – the forth waive of mobilization is hidden operational but not so effective as 1st and 2nd. They lost a lot of material too – only photo-evidences proved about 500 lost Ukrainian armor. But on the other hand I'm agree that Ukrainians now are in the best condition, but rebels are not.

      @if Kremlin will cut out support and retreat own forces@
      for what purpose?

      @in what moment this whole mess will be too much a burden to them. @
      This burden provide a lot of impressive possibilities.

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    2. @for what purpose?

      We already see some of move away strategy, you notice that in last speech of president Putin he did not mention too much or nothing about Donbas. It was Crimea, Crimea and one more time Crimea. I don't remember but someone count how much word Crimea was used but it was 14 or 17, I'm not sure. It's look like Russia is distance itself from that mess... maybe this is that strategy of exit, they take peninsula but Donbas was a fail experiment. Or only calm before the storm.

      @This burden provide a lot of impressive possibilities.

      For now it show that impressive possibility of Rubel going down like no other currency in modern history. There are some additional things that can be used by Kremlin outside but mainly inside, as you mention that traditional "enemy's everywhere!"... but how long they can take that before they meet that breaking point? That situation will be such problem that they will need to react somehow to put things on old road of "prosperity".

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  6. The current Ukraine ceasefire isn't perfect but it's better than none. It was established in Minsk last September, during a conference called by Russia.

    Now the US has ordered its puppet Poroshenko to break the ceasefire and attack. Why destroy the ceasefire? One reason is--

    NYTimes, Jun 5, 2015
    François Hollande Says Destabilizing Sanctions on Russia ‘Must Stop Now’
    MOSCOW — Western nations should stop threatening Russia with new sanctions and instead offer to ease off on existing restrictions in exchange for progress in the peace process in Ukraine, President François Hollande of France said in an interview on Monday.

    Perhaps Freedom Fries might come back to the Congressional mess hall?

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  7. @The president presented vouchers for …... two MiG-29 and two Su-27 aircraft, @
    Organizers of the PR-action are idiots – on the above said vouchers for jets real names of operational pilots were mentioned. My ass! To disclose personal data of battle pilots...someone needs anal punishment a lot, bgggg....

    @it seems like the Ukrainian President is expecting continued fighting. @
    Ongoing warfare is one of main factors to control the situation for Poroshenko – he ( or if be more correct – his oligarchic pull) needs constant war background to prove unpopular (if to put it mildly) reforms in gaze of electorate ant to beg some EU's or USA's coppers – for ultimate war against the Russian bear.

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  8. Probably Russia doesn't mind that the Ukraine regime is worsening its own situation, as Russia is going through an internal economic realignment and the distraction is welcome. Putin's domestic popularity is high, something for Obama to envy.

    analyst:
    Russia is preparing for a period of prolonged political confrontation with the West, and that pushes Moscow toward closer military, political and industrial cooperation with China. Next year we will see increased joint military activities, including a naval exercise in the Mediterranean, and new arms and high-tech trade deals.

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  9. I can't make much sense of all the above comments but I am still trying to figure out what it means that the units were "transferred." Transferred from where? Who else has armor in Ukraine to transfer from? Does the author really mean leased or bought from an outside source? Interesting.
    BTW, has anyone noticed that the "Crimea Crisis" has become completely forgotten. Done deal I would venture.

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  10. Putin has been unwilling to cease hostilities so that leaves Ukraine only two viable options, surrender or fight back and force the cease-fire.

    Ukraine's right wing has so far been patient under the Russian shelling as Ukraine's army is in rebuild and refurbish mode and is getting better by the day despite the losses. Next spring will likely bring the duel of radar guided artillery.

    This year Ukraine also has to decide do they fire back to Russian side of the border or not, last year they didnt and they were heavily battered due to this. You simply cannot hold the line if the enemy can shoot you and you cant shoot back.

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    1. They did not shoot above the border for a reason... "Ukraine is attacking us! We need to defend ourself and invade them!" Maybe it is a simple form but this is how things works with Kremlin. Georgians did that, they were provoked, provoked and provoked whole time and they did the most stupid thing in that situation... they get themselves provoked and move forward, and Russians just wait for that. Russian forces wait en mass there and wait for Georgians to blink... Ukrainians did not do this, and it is one of not too many very smart thing they did in that conflict.

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    2. Open official Russian invasion was a bluff and a very good one. Decision to invade openly was not depended on Ukrainian actions, Russia could have easily shoot their own troops like in Finnish border 1939 or blow up their own housing buildings like FSB did in 1999 and blame Ukraine or simply say that humanitarian situation requires it, but didnt do it...

      Even now when people freeze and lack food, they would have easy domestic pretex to invade officially, but they are not, because Putin doesnt want to have some 1000km of open frontline as end result would be totally unpredictable in long term.

      Some do predict, that now Putin has nothing to loose as economy is already crashing and due to this he could do anything, or official war would divert attention away from domestic problems but primary focus of Putin like any other similar dictator/regime is to stay in power and open war with large neighboring country is a massive gamble.

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