The below is taken from Bayou Man's Blog from the above video.
Q. You owe the ECB 6 million dollars are you not going to pay?
A: Well, if you look at the existing agreement, the existing agreement recognizes that, ah, we can't pay. And it imposes upon us the very strange notion that as a bankrupt state, we must borrow money from our partners - even more money than they've already given us - to repay a central bank which is in the process of printing one trillion Euros. Now, you only have to state this to realize that this is not a God-given, Divine imperative which Europe shouldn't be discussing.
This is going to shake the financial markets to the core.
I know I'm sounding like chicken little but do yourself and your family a favor. Prepare for drama. Work while the sun is shining because this could be the first of many indicators of global storms coming. Make no mistake about it. A Greek default (even if they try a little word judo to make it sound like something different) will change your life.
NOTE: The danger here isn't the amount of money involved in the Greek economy. The danger revolves around a European country seeing default as the answer to its economic problems...along with the idea that in doing so it could have to move away from the Euro. That could have knock on effects. What happens if this spreads like a contagion to other countries in economic trouble? This isn't a threat to the EU. This is a threat to the enter house of cards that is the global economic system.
NOTE: The danger here isn't the amount of money involved in the Greek economy. The danger revolves around a European country seeing default as the answer to its economic problems...along with the idea that in doing so it could have to move away from the Euro. That could have knock on effects. What happens if this spreads like a contagion to other countries in economic trouble? This isn't a threat to the EU. This is a threat to the enter house of cards that is the global economic system.
Greece is tired of getting pushed by Germany, and they won't take it any more. The new Greek PM has also told Brussels that Greece is against new sanctions on Russia, and sanctions require unanimity. It's probably a good thing, because the EU sanctions first on Iran and then on Russia have hurt EU countries, since trade is a two-way street. Sanctions on sellers are also sanctions on buyers, and vice-versa. The euro has been dropping like a rock against the dollar as seen here.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile Ukraine, the EU's new buddy, needs cash, lots of it -- a billion dollars a month for the next 15 months.
Yeah... sanctions on Iran was really strong hit in to Europe economy, because you know... such big trading partner for whole continent... such big.
DeleteYou just need to love Greeks... first they fuck up own country and put it one the bankrupt zone, scream for help and cash, EU did that but clearly saying that Greece need to pull oneself together and start to fix own shit because this is an loan not a gift. Greece is happy because cash again start to flow, but they start to be unhappy... first because they need to fix the shit that they love to have and second they need to repay the cash they receive and they don't like that. And now... now they just combine how to NOT give back the cash.
ReplyDeleteJust, you need to love those dudes.
Nope
DeleteNot even a little bit
Greece is the victim, at best, its guilty of walking down a dark alley in a short skirt.
The ECB ran a ruinously loose monetary policey in the early 00s to save Germany, which used that time to reform.
A side effect of this was huge asset bubbles in the iPigs
Now Greece needs to reform and Germany is at risk of asset bubbles, the ECB is running extremely tight monetary policey.
It walk in the dark alley in the worst neighborhood in the area, in short skirt that end before it really start with price you would buy a home. All with pure gold and diamonds the limited One edition grafen iPhone and screaming fuck me, fuck me really hard!
DeleteIn that case... yep, Greece is a victim... of it's own stupidity.
They fuck up, fuck up really bad and nobody force them to do this. They want help, they need to fix that shit, they don't want to because it need to be a radical thing that in last year start to show some progress and first time Greece receive positive economic opinion.
Just to put thing in perspective ,EU has common currency so states can not do much to tweek the euro ,but unlike US where federal goverment bailed out the banks not the states otherwise you would have noumber of Greek scenarios also in US,in EU states were forced to bail ot the banks ,yes Greeks did some shody things but ,still much of the debts falls on the bank bailout and at 8-17% interest rates on state bonds you can never pay back money and such interest rates are prosecutable in bussines world .
DeleteThere is no "but" Mr.T... Greeks fuck up, they did many mistakes, they take many very bad decisions and they are now "paying" for that. They try to find "someone else" to blame for that situation... but the truth is simple, THEY fuck up, nobody else but they. They should start to act like fucking adults, stop whining but get that shit together and fix it, it will be painful but for fuck sake FIX it.
DeleteI doubt they'll default. A Greek default will hurt themselves more than it can get them liquidity, no one will loan them money any more, and that is a sure path to a government shutdown.
DeleteBest they are probably playing for is an extension or a forgiveness of part of the loan, and even then, their money will crash. Can't see it turning out well, but ironically, I also don't see it affecting the rest of the world much, the savvy investor saw it coming years ago. Not that there is much to see, other than the Greeks doing nothing....
it's to simple to call Greece a victim or a perp. The European system at least has some blame, but in that case it gets close to blaming 'capitalism' since at the heart of all this is the way banks, money and debt works. On the other hand, Greece is not innocent. They are the king of corruption, nepotism and such in Europe. You can also look at something of interest here: the armed forces: the amount of planes, tanks and such they have is enormous compared to their GDP. Al mostly to safeguard against their NATO ally Turkey...
DeleteIn the end they could default, or leave the Euro, but no one really wants this, not the majority of Europeans, nor the majority of Greeks, not even their new ultra-left government. Specially not the Greeks I would say, because who would pay the price of that? Greece would be totally bankrupt even without having to pay back debts..
In the end Owl seems to be right: what ever happens, the Greeks are screwed and the rest of us not so much.. at least not from this.
This is the dude that used to work at valve?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, time to prepares for a serious shit storm.
Greece is the poor man saying "You can forgive us this debt and start on a new one or you can forgive an even larger one in 18 months. You choose." In yon elden days, this would have been settled by debtor's prison and/or the stocks and pillories for those that allowed themselves to be put into this situation and forced tribute under threat of military pillaging of community if there wasn't sufficient cooperation.
ReplyDeleteMore recently, this is the _exact_ same condition the U.S. found itself in, during the mid to late 70s as low IQ, huge poverty population, OAS states throughout Latin America were given billions to squander by the worlds largest lending nation and /routinely/ came up busted because the population could not and would not generate the North European work ethic.
It's a Genetic Algorithm (imprinted survival strategy) condition.
We 'solved' the problem by shifting to a credit lifestyle for America and the flushing of industry t areas where cheap local manufacture incentivized people to own their debt in consumer goods.
The result has not been a stellar improvement in Central and South America as the management is still Western and the profits are drained to the 2% stockholders. But what it has done is lower the standards of America to a level where a third of us are indistinguishable from our Southern neighbors as indeed some 92,600,000 people are out of work and on the dole leaving only 62.8% to bear the load, alone.
Germany has created a monster by which she can only recover her lost investment in the Schengen by 'outside means'. For the U.S. that meant manipulation of the currency markets, interference in oil production and selling our souls to China. For Germany, it has historically meant war. In the East. With an 'enemy' that wouldn't exist but for the intelligence and political machinations of a select few looking o start sumthin' up where there was no dischord before via insurrection, victimization and false strife.
Does this put thing in perspective for why the U.S. _should not_ have any part of NATO or European issues? This is yet another attempt to Rite Of Passage stand up a nation state with the same food, mineral, oil resources that the U.S has for so long enjoyed. Only this time there is no Hitler to play the patsy for the 'rescue mission' into Ukraine.
To which I would add one other remark: After the Pact of Locarno, in which Gustav Stresemann essentially sold Germany into indefinite, indenture, servitude as the slave manufacturing state of Europe (see: Contemporary China) with critically low wages that kept every non-propertied German on the edge of starvation, a new currency was introduced that effectively ended reparations and allowed the debt riddled economy to begin to stand up again.
Hitler's 'Economic Miracle', which he fully acknowledged would never have happened but for Stresemann's intervention, began exactly these same kinds of policies as Germany tried to erect a socialist state internally stable and independent of European wealth. The Europeans and particularly the Great Powers would have none of this, wanting Germany forever under their thumbs and in attempting to get this leverage back, forced Germany to pay for every resource it bought from them, in gold. Not in cash. The result was that there was no gold to back the massive currency easing that the two principle German banks undertook (lending each other money until the incestuous nature of who owed whom was an indecipherable mess) with the result that the path to war became all but assured and the switch from a 3-4% defense spending to a 17-20% equivalent marked the descent to annihilation in Europe.
The one exception to this was the reach out shared between Germany and South America where the low wealth status of the people meant that barter trade (which Hitler sought to legitimize and which both Saddam and Gadhafi tried to rebirth) was the only way for them to get things like the machine tools with which to make their own play for modernity happen without a monumental debt trail (we sufferd the same during the Tea Party era and were now bullying the other American States the same way).
DeleteThis act of decency made Germany lasting friends in that part of the world, to this day. And pissed off the U.S. State and Commerce Departments no end.
Again, guess what the Ukraine represents as an equivalent 'trade for trade' direct value exchange rather than monetary controlled miasma? They have food. They have gas. They have the Caucasus range with all it's mineral wealth. And Germany would -love- to begin a tit for tat trading economy with them for he simple reason that it would be outside the control of the IMF monitored and gold secured (though the Germans recently tried to get theirs back) currency trade system.
This is the NWO. This is crisis between /Nation Groups/ looking for internal control over their economies as the sole means to defeat the nascent evil of One Word Government.
And when the Germans fail, they will be in exactly the position Hitler was in 1937-38: With a massively overeased new currency and no way to lay off the debt ratio. Do not think that they will not be tempted to do something which brings the U.S. into their incited civil war, looking for a massive conflict to sweep deb under the carpet and force EU interests by geographic disposition to the fore.
Keeping in mind that ONLY the U.S. has the nuclear firepower to stare down Russia, this is yet another reason for us to RUN, not walk, to the nearest exit on NATO and Europe with a idea of keeping those competitive states from an equal share of the pie, with China, against our dwindling power.
Such fragmentation was what Ethnic Self Determination was really about in Wilson's 1918 (Fourteen Points) efforts. It is the reason why we bombed Europe flat for four years rather than simpy interdicting her foreign materials importers (Sweden and Switzerland) and electrical/transport systems from the start.
We don't need the competition in our weakened state.
The banks were all happy to loan Greece money the past 20 years even though they knew Greece had serious fiscal issues, but when the party was over and the bill came due, now they complain about the Greeks. Those banks bear as much responsibility for this as do the past Greek governments.
ReplyDeleteThe austerity measures enacted by Western European Governments aren't working: they keep cutting gov't spending (including defense), yet there is no economic recovery to be had.
And as long as tax havens such as the Cayman islands and Lichtenstein allow trillions of dollars of taxable income to be hidden, then governments will be broke, militaries will be shrunk and economies will stagnate.
Exactly, they do not worry too much about greece being kicked out of the eurozone. But for countries like spain and italy to follow.
DeleteThings kinda remind at the situation post WW1 , where axis states/population was made to pay reparation while guilty parties(elite) got away scott free what followed was WW2, end of WW2 guilty parties were tried and hung while state/people were spared the reparations. Now we are again at the post WW1 scenario people are paying for banksters mistakes while they themselves got away scott free.
DeleteI'm impressed at how deluded their thinkings are. what a shame for the future generations.
ReplyDeletefair chance the Euro will get belted. The Euro currency likely to fall over...
ReplyDeleteI'm more than happy to cut ANOTHER 50% of their debt after the two last "defaults", but first they must bring their tax rate at 50% like the rest of civilized europe, and not stop taxing the house and putting the limit at 12k euros (how much % would that leave out of tax imposition? 70% of population? I'm just guessing) start really reforming, and when it is time to fire people truly fire them, not as they did when they fired 20k to just assume another 20k not so long after...
ReplyDeleteThe fault of germans isn't to not cut greek debt, it is blocking further economic integration in the european market and being inflationphobic.
In the end the Euro will muddle on.. if no one stands up and fixes the basic flaw in the system. There is one currency, but not one Europe.
ReplyDeleteThe only long term solution , if you want to keep the Euro, which is the economical smart move, but not the nationalistic one, is to accept there is one Europe, like there is one USA . With that you have to accept that some richer parts will have to help the poorer ones. This would still be to the advantage of these richer 'Nations' since they benefit vastly from the single currency and from the huge market. The problem is this is not easy to show to voters, so no politician would survive such a decision on a national level.
The above is the big picture, which does not mean the poorer parts, like Greece should get a free ride. Specially not the rather big number of very rich Greeks who profited massively from their failing government and long since hid their money oversees.
one Europe? like one USA? how? on what do you base that thought? the way that Germany operates is completely opposite of the way that the Greeks function. same with the Netherlands versus Spain. and their is no unifying federal govt to unite all those countries because Europeans want the economic power of the US without the pain that comes with it.
Deleteyou can have one currency that crosses borders but until laws, and institutions have that same power then you're building a house of cards.'
the facts are stark. either European countries give up autonomy to a central govt then the Euro is doomed to failure.
You owe the ECB 6 million dollars are you not going to pay?
ReplyDeleteSol, is this a type-o? Euro 6 MILLION only? If this is the case, then this is not "I can't pay you because I don't have money to pay you" anymore.