via Washington Times
Russian military forces are crossing into eastern Ukraine in larger numbers, according to Phillip A. Karber, a Georgetown University professor currently on a fact-finding tour of the region.What the fuck is going on?
“Things are really heating up — five Russian armored task forces crossed the border in last 60 hours, a force of about 75 main battle tanks, 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 100 other armored vehicles and fifty artillery systems,” said Mr. Karber, also head of the Potomac Foundation.
The increased Russian military operations come as both the United States and the NATO alliance so far have not supplied urgently needed lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian military, Mr. Karber said in an email dispatch to Inside the Ring. However, after a delay of 10 months, the U.S. Army Europe recently sent a delegation of officers to Kiev to assess Ukraine’s military needs.
“Intense combat is breaking out all across the front — from Mariupol in the south to Luhansk in the east,” Mr. Karber said.
Five armored task forces are operating in Ukraine? I hate to sound like the Russians on but where is the proof? Everyone in Europe has a cell phone and they couldn't keep this large a troop movement secret.
On the other hand we're getting these types of reports at an increasing pace. I don't know whats happening but something is brewing.
That quiet endgame that I was expecting might be off the mark. This thing could get nasty if people miscalculate. Read the entire article here.
Have you missed all the other times they've made claims like these? Haven't been any proof for any of those, too.
ReplyDeleteThere is a significant amount of pics&vids of Russian vehicles with fresh DNR/LNR insignias circling in the net.
ReplyDeleteFor a example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1421782837&v=zCYwumPngFQ&x-yt-cl=84359240
Problem is that if it is proven beyond any deniability then it might become even more difficult to negotiate an truce and Russia might just as well go ahead and start air strikes and lobbing missiles.
The latest agreement being made as being reported yesterday, defines a demarcated line from where heavy type vehicles, armor and artillery must be removed. That is a condition reportedly, prior to an actual peace summit from being attended and commencing.
DeleteThus, it's actually not likely Kremlin will order any unilateral offensive actions or support militant separatist forces from conducting any further offensives or assaults on other cities, etc, currently within sovereign Ukrainian military borders. In other words, there is arguably more incentive now than at any time since March 2014, to build traction on honoring the current demarcated military lines and to work towards a final political resolution as to Ukraine's sovereignty and restructuring. There's probably less threat today for renewed offenses and assaults on sovereign Ukrainian territory. More reason for optimism in this case, in my view at least and we can only wish Ukraine well and good luck towards this longer-term process. Regards.
There is no hard information on the Potomac Foundation, and its website is no help.
ReplyDeleteProfessor Karber?-- Likewise--
Published on Nov 4, 2014
Ukraine should get ready for a possible full scale military invasion by Russia according to military expert and Georgetown University professor Phillip Karber. In an interview with Ukrainian news service TSN, Karber warned that Ukraine’s regions that border with Russia are particularly vulnerable. He highlighted the importance of Ukraine beefing up defenses along its north eastern border.
I have no doubt that the U.S., which is silent on this, and spends tens of billions of dollars annually on intelligence, has total surveillance of the situation and doesn't need the babblings of a paid Ukraine agent AKA "military expert."
geez. that's the most bare bones website i've ever seen. if that's the case then i need to rename this the SNAFU! Think Tank.org and bill the govt for my thoughts on the Marine Corps!
Deletethanks for digging that up. i never even considered that this guy might be a plant because...wait for it...this came from the Washington Times. for all my hatred of mainstream press i thought that they would have done their homework. looks like you took them to school Don. WELL DONE
You are welcome. Go Army. --heh
DeleteMan these invasions keep on happeing no satelite pics ? , i am more and more inclined to think that US has all its resources commited to snooping on us browsing porn and spy satelites are all defunct ,or maybe they were never functional in the first place just a case of 400$ hammer .
DeleteReally any and all satelite picts we have been presented so far were some comercall google earth like pics much of which turned out to be couple of years old.
The beeb is quoting Poroshenko (again)
ReplyDeleteBBC: Russia has 9,000 troops in Ukraine - President Poroshenko
President Petro Poroshenko: "We have more than 9,000 troops of Russian Federation on my territory... if this is not aggression, what is aggression?" Russia has more than 9,000 soldiers and 500 tanks, heavy artillery and armoured personnel carriers in eastern Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko has said.//
Five hundred tanks!!
SecState Kerry, also reported by BBC, doesn't mention Russia.
ReplyDeleteBBC: Secretary of State John Kerry has accused pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine of a "blatant land grab". He was speaking after reports that the rebels had extended the area they control, violating a ceasefire plan. . .Mr Kerry said the recent upsurge in fighting was "an alarming situation" adding that the US was "particularly concerned" by rebel moves to "attempt to gain control of a very significant rail juncture" in eastern Ukraine.
Don't be so sure...
Delete1. Russia WILL NOT let go of the Ukraine. Ever. It is a bread basket. It is a final buffer state, now that the Warsaw Pact is gone. It provides oversight of the Russian central missile fields, gas and oil around the Caspian and Crimea. It is strategically essential.
It is, in a word, Cuba.
2. DNR/LNR are like the British/Polish airheads around Arnhem with the Russians playing the part of XXX Corps. You are here. You have to get to there. What's the most dangerous point to an air-minded enemy? The leap off and the finish line. Because those are the predictable points of transition where 'crossing a line' justifies attacks and predicts routes. Which is why the Russians will NOT in fact go in via the British method: One long AA up to their designated People's Republics. And suffer no end of Highway Of Death lamentations for it.
They will instead go the Khafji route. Which is to say a dozen different groups, haphazardly pulling out of line to make the rush as their commanders have no stomach for suicide. And getting the luckiest drawn hand of ODS-91 because, in the chaos, it doesn't look like a push but a realignment. Or something. The Marines reran this scenario in 1993-94 and found it to be fabulously effective in putting small units through a gauntlet of airpower because it effectively allowed a unit to free-advance during the period that another was taking a beating before the tacair involved had to RTB to combat turn.
Again, this is not new, it is just an expansion of the Operatsiya Mars condition of 'Make them defend everywhere and they will defend nowhere, well.' It is also how the South African Defense Forces staged Externals against an Angolan threat with nominally overwhelming airpower and a well laid out GBAD.
3. The worst thing that can happen to the Russians is for the West to get involved with illegal and escalatory release of high end ATGW and 'advisors' to track (and/or lead) their use. Because that will effectively leave them with two unsupported LOCs (fuel, munitions, food, general supplies) and a big splat of egg-on-face loss of power when they cannot sustain open routes to their People's Republics. It also means no NATO overt presence.
However; if the Russians preempt, getting occupational forces into place to secure lines of march, then it does indeed become an insurgency and the Russians can win this, simply by making the Ukrainians lose confidence in their own government as with tanks holding up _Ukrainian_ internal commerce and supply. Cutting off whole areas under the suspicion that if it's moves on wheels in wartime, somebody is payign for it's gas and they must be insurgent.
Either way, the Ukrainians have less and less to do with their own Sovereign Outcome as a basis of Ethnic or National Self Determination.
Which...being a UN 'Peremptory Norm'-
>
A peremptory norm (also called jus cogens or ius cogens /ˌdʒʌs ˈkoʊdʒɛnz/ or /ˌjʌs/;[1] Latin for "compelling law") is a fundamental principle of international law that is accepted by the international community of states as a norm from which no derogation is permitted.
>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peremptory_norm
Allows a more direct Western intervention.
Meaning NATO can exercise more and more force, in other areas, to either flatten rear area support and infrastructure (what I cannot have, I ruin for you) or win the Go-Game of fragmentation by cutoff and envelopment on a bite-by-bite basis.
Again: Defend everything and defend nothing well.
Either way, this never was a Ukrainian War and they are going to be the big losers.
I think loosing the Donetsk airport for kinda spured the Ukrainians on to a new round of lies and whining to the west like kid whose lolipop has been snatched.
Deletehttp://werewolf0001.livejournal.com/2338227.html
The new terminal and ruins of tower lost there ability to be efficiently defended, they still hold the meteo station but airfield as a defense position is lost. It's all ruins...242 day of fighting, they hold it for 242 days. That's fraking impressive. But now there is no more place to defend, one big pile of ruins. What is interesting the OSCE say that Ukrainian soldiers that retreat from there, some 80 of them have signs of gas poisoning...
DeleteIt's too dangerous to let Sf in this war zone : any POW identified as NATO would be political disaster: Remember nicaragua ? Result would be instant stopping of support of ukraine.
DeleteThe smarter way, used by nato, is to support in every other aspects, food, equipement, training, intel : Everything that clearly lack to UK. They have weapons and warriors, exactly like the oppoents...Otan try to push UKr to his opponent level, they believe it's possible.
In my view, ukraine is like south vietnam when USA leaves...good luck and wait for it...
on off topic fun facts :
ReplyDeleteYemeni rebels captured an Airforce base and a Missile base without a fight
Yemen's Shiite rebels pressed ahead on Wednesday with their power grab in the capital, Sanaa, capturing a military base housing ballistic missiles that overlooks the city and posting guards outside the president's home, a day after raiding the presidential palace.
The Houthi rebels, who are trying to carve a greater share of power for their group, also issued fresh demands Wednesday, asking for the post of vice president and several key government offices.
The developments further erode the standing of U.S.-backed President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who was unharmed during the shelling of his neighborhood Tuesday and remained inside his house. The embattled Hadi appears to have run out of options amid the Houthis' blitz, which has raised uncertainty over who is in control in Yemen and also concerns that al-Qaida's Yemen branch could profit from the power vacuum.
Early Wednesday, the Houthis seized the country's largest missile base on a hilltop above Sanaa, consolidating their grip over the city, which they seized in September after spreading out from their strongholds in the north.
I will agree with you, if you are implying there are currently 'no good sides' to support in Yemen today and things look increasingly grim for the country of 25million give or take. Hopefully things can stabilize and evolve over the medium-term to include organic new alternative groups within Yemen to contribute positively to a pluralistic and future Yemen state -- groups which could be better supported diplomatically and economically by international community, etc. Very tragic situation indeed all around for the human kind.
Deletehttp://www.dermandar.com/p/atXaqB
ReplyDeleteImpressive panorama-photo of the Donetsk airport.
Only an new terminal... or rather what left of it, not too much. No wonder Ukrainians retreat from it, and that fog, pretty heavy.
Delete@ Shas, I´m afraid that it´s not a terminal anymore. It´s rubble. Truly, this structure was damaged beyond repair. Whoever win this war will have to level it and start from zero.
Delete@and start from zero.@
DeleteIt looks like no one will repair the airport – as well as Lugansk’s airport.
No to mention how much cash they put in rebuild of it for soccer championships... it will be ruin for long, long time.
DeleteOfftopic:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WCwRAmgtKQ#t=257
Vid of the recent fight for the new terminal. Rebels said they use a lot of fire-houses with explosive inside (about 1 800 kg) to destroy Ukrainian’s minefields in the terminal. As the result part of the building was crashed. Vid is with step-by-step comments of immediate participants – so if some-one has questions feel free to ask – I translate.
Offtopic:
ReplyDeleteUkrainians try to develop a home-maid strike helo on the Mi-2 basis
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/green_stone13/64024171/469646/469646_original.jpg
taken here
http://green-stone13.livejournal.com/349252.html
Been there, done that...
Deletehttp://img4.garnek.pl/a.garnek.pl/006/924/6924619_800.0.jpg/migawki-z-mspo-2009-smiglowiec.jpg
Pretty desaperate... Soviet first armed helo was mi2 or 4, don t remember. Exactly like using bell 210 as assult helo : Rip pilot
Delete