This is a fictional account of how I see a terrorist attack against the US going down. It will be bloody, destabilizing, will throw the world into depression almost immediately and will change our way of life forever. Oh and tell me if I'm just loony-toons for suggesting this possibility.
Situation Room.
The President is looking at reports of the attack in Cincinnati with amazement. How did these bastards get into the country? How were they able to effectively neutralize a cities police dept? Why didn't we see this coming? She keeps asking the questions but none of her advisers are able to give her answers. Finally her CIA director steps up and gives the bad news. Madam President. We don't need to do an after action now. We need to catch these sons of bitches and either kill or capture them. After that's done we can bury our dead and do the blame game business. She reluctantly agrees and makes a mental note to charge the CIA head with something...anything...as soon as its done.
What actually happened.
The reason why this terrorist attack was so successful is because they finally got smart. Scary thing huh? A smart terrorist organization! These guys though...this new group out of West Africa...they were looking to make a name and they hit the prize. Somehow they managed to steal a couple of local fuel delivery trucks, rigged them with explosives and instead of going for a body count at a mall or school went straight for the police and fire departments. Because the thefts were local it didn't immediately set off alarm bells...and by the time an FBI nationwide alert went out the deed was done.
Oh and the attack was devastating. The police station was leveled and 60 patrolmen were killed instantly, several dozen squad cars destroyed, ammunition/weapons rendered useless and the department in shock. Worse though...as if things could be worse, is the fact that these hooligans simultaneously struck the fire dept. An entire fire company was destroyed, to include the engines, the firemen, incident command truck and the building leveled.
First responders were out of action before the action began.
Then the horror.
Every municipality in the state (to include state troopers and national guard) were immediately activated and started sending people to help. It was obvious that a terrorist attack had just happened but "we take care of our own first" is said only in private among first responders. At the time it seemed reasonable. The results however would be tragic.
The news hit and suddenly the streets were filled with people wanting to rubberneck. If there is a tragedy then people want to see it. They paid the price for their curiosity. Interstate 75 was a crowded, stalled traffic mess when the news hit.
Terrorist team 1 (we have them numbered) struck on the open highway. How the hell they got RPGs is still a mystery but with AKMs and those rocket launchers it was mayhem. People were machine-gunned in their cars, large trucks were rocketed and God bless their souls a school bus was targeted and Hillcrest High School lost 50 students in a matter of seconds.
Luckily this was a small 3 man crew and some concealed carry holders put them down. But the deed was done. A major US interstate was hopeless jammed, if we had first responders available (and we didn't) they couldn't get there and approximately 250 US citizens were either dead or dying with no help coming for hours.
The pain intensifies.
The Governor declares a state of emergency, the President activates Northcom for action inside the US and the 82nd is called in. No one says a word about civil liberties. America is scared shitless. Two maniacs in stolen fuel trucks along with 3 more guys faking a broken down car on the interstate just delivered a kidney punch to the US. Additionally they succeeded in putting the US economy in a tail spin.
But that was just the beginning.
Everyone knows that the Mall of America is a potential target. Soccer Moms could care less. Teenagers either. When Terrorist team 2 struck it was mayhem. 2 guys with backpacks full of ammo walked into the mall and simply starting shooting. They just didn't care. Men, women and children were gunned down. Security cut and ran, a couple of concealed carriers were struck down because they hesitated and by the time SWAT arrived and made entry they were taken under fire while they were in their stack. Officers were on the ground severely wounded when the two clowns did the unthinkable. Everyone assumed that all they had in those packs was extra ammo. No one thought that they were suicide bombers. When additional SWAT officers and the Tactical EMS personnel moved up to help their comrades Terrorist team 2 ran out to the downed officers and detonated themselves. We're still trying to get a total body count but its close to 500.
This is how you stall an economy.
Terrorist team 3 has been problematic. They appear to be a sniper team that is moving from city to city killing motorist, pedestrians, people cutting their grass...even high school sports teams practicing. These guys are obviously trained because they setup in good hide spots (we still don't have an ID or numbers) take no more than 10 shots and are using .308 caliber to get the deed done. We think they're using an AR-15 based .308 (similar to the SR-25) that is suddenly so popular. The problem is people are staying at home, trips to the market are super short and people are sprinting from their cars to whatever building they're going into. The only good to come out of this is that the American people are taking fitness way more seriously now.
Just playing around but could this happen?
I was just wargaming how the incident in France could have been so much worse and this scenario jumped into my brain housing group. Is it far fetched? Is it totally implausible? I hope so but I wonder. We live in interesting times.
Not far fetched at all. Alot of planning, logistical support and money would be needed to pull this operation off, but very doable. DHS and NORCOM's planners nightmare. Tangos do adapt to thier environment.
ReplyDeletei thought so. question. how much does a terrorist op cost to fund (oh and for govt monitors i'm just curious...)its never discussed anywhere. for something like 9/11 you have room and board, the cost for flight lessons etc...but what about a direct action attack? where would the major expenses come from? if you have personnel already in country, they should be able to steal what they need except for exotic weapons.
DeleteThe only thing that surprised me in your scenario is how come it hasn't happened already, I think it is only a matter of time that it will happen in the USA!!! If some guys in France can get that level of guns and ammo, training, money,etc... just imagine what you can get your hands on in the USA......Your scenario doesn't require that much money, plenty easy to get guns, ammo, home made explosive in the USA, that's super easy. Does require some coordination and training but it's very doable.
DeleteRemember those 2 idiots that were sniping on the East coast a few years ago, they were just driving around in a car and shooting from a tiny hole in the trunk, sounds like your Team #3.
I haven't gone to a mall in years for exactly the scenario #2 that you talk about. I also agree with the bad guys going on the offense, as I mentioned last night, both groups in Paris tried to go out charging the cops, they went on the OFFENSIVE, they didn't hole up, I think it is only a matter of time when they will go "suicide bomber" on the cops waiting just outside and when the cops go forward, the bad guys run out with a suicide vast and boom, no more SWAT team......
the thing that kills me are teams are still using stacks! i'm just a jarhead but i could personally destroy a SWAT team stacked outside my door without even trying hard. just give me a good AR with decent ammo and add in modern buildings you have swiss cheese police. do i have a better method? no. is the stack tactically stupid? in my opinion yes. there has to be a better way or a determined criminal or terrorist is going to have a field day.
DeleteMajor expenses-
Delete1.) Training of the killiers would be an expense. If they are redicalizing and recruiting people from within the US territory, they need to train them. And they need to get a bunch of trainers inside USA first.
2.) If the killers are to be imported from Syria, Iraq, Chechnya, Pakistan etc. That saves training costs and training profile but adds on to bribery, fake documentation costs and other illegal ways to get them inside the US.
3.) Maintenance of these people in a "safe house" as terrorists dont like these suicide squads roaming about mingling with people so that they dont develop a conscience.
4.) The type and quantitiy of explosives used will also effect expenditure
5.) Many teams require communication. They can do that old school style through newspapers, books etc. or go in modern with better communication gear. Seeing that they will have to go in quickly after jacking their transports and fuel trucks....i bet they will carry a fair bit of modern comm. gear to coordinate better with their ultimate HQ real time commanding them from another location.
6.) The Mumbai terrorists were promised that their families would be well taken care off and a lump sum given to them. How much of this is true remains to be seen but adds to cost.
If you include an Af-Pak sandbox Narco Terrorist group hooking up with a Mexican Drug Cartel to smuggle in military grade weapons, change Cincinnati to Phoenix and the highway to I5 in Cali you might be closer to the magnitude of attack you are describing.
Deleteronaldmcvan
DeleteVery valid drug angle to fund terror ops along with oil money. And once the current Afghan govt. collapses and is replaced by the Taliban.....an entire nations tax payer money (however limited that may be) will be added to this.
The terrorists are already in Mexico and the Mosques they have built have started radicalizing the population. So the cost of being smuggled into the US just got cut. If you use AR-15s they are relatively cheap and the ammo is in great supply right now and no one would give a 2nd look at anyone "stocking up" on ammo. I won't go in to how easy I found out semi trucks are to steal. I'm surprised more are not stolen everyday. Everything thats there is do able and not very hard to get done.
DeleteIm still worried about a three or more teams staying mobile pulling off raids and moving off to a new location while police and other emergency services are trying to keep up. Alter yours a bit and keeping the guys mobile. Have them drop off backpack bombs set to go off 20min after their attack and as the scene fills with medical, fire, and police the bomb goes off. Even if they finally get taken down or cornered you ideas can kick back in, but by then how gun shy would first responders be if lets say all 3 started at the same time and all 3 of those scenes had delayed bombs set. After that first series of bombs goes off who would send services in without clearing the scenes for bombs. So you draw more officers for perimeter security, the ones blown up already, the ones trying to keep up with the calls of new attacks coming in and as soon as it hits the news all the nuts that call in false calls of sighting the groups. A whole major US city would be shut down in less than an hour with all services effectively tied up for a day or more.
Have the teams then move to a sniper scenario in the next major city to the one initially hit and the region will shut down.
This sounds familiar. Sol, have you ever seen the Chuck Norris film Invasion U.S.A.?
ReplyDeletenever have. same premise i assume except they're using conventional forces?
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DeleteIt also reminds me of the attacks from the Tom Clancy book Executive orders. About as devastating too.
DeleteNot conventional forces but same premise. A large terrorist force infiltrates the U.S.A. and causes massive chaos including a mall attack. Of course Chuck takes care of business.
ReplyDeleteTeam 4: SUV with hole cut in the roof and an 81mm mortar in the back. Slide a roof panel off, lob a few rounds towards a stadium, power plant, etc and take off. Do they have to actually damage anything? No. The fear will cause resources to be tied up setting exclusion zones.
ReplyDeleteAnother reason I really don't like going to arenas, it's not a couple of fat guys in white shirts that are really any deterrent to anything, they give a false sense of security.....2 or 3 guys with some high powered shotguns,rifles.....just the stampede will kill 100s. Same thing for malls.
DeleteAttacking the first responders as their first target ? a truck packed with explosives can destroy the whole police building / fire dept if these guys are those suicidal types. Just like how ISIS uses multiple suicide car bombs to take an iraqi base , they cunningly used iraqi humvees pretending to be iraqi reinforcement, and was let inside the base before detonating inside it.. imagine the chaos / confusion inflicted by these suicide bombs , they got rolled by the 2nd ISIS infantry coming in the wires..
ReplyDeleteno police force in the world would survive attack from determined and smart terrorist.. the initial butcher bill would be high.. as for the ambush of first responders , the terrorist could just repeat the playbook of IRA , when they successfully IED-ambushed 3 vehicle British Paratroopers convoy in WARRENPOINT , and then when the QRF arrived they exploded an even bigger IED (fertilized bomb really) to further kill more soldiers..
how long before a smart lone guy would emulate this person in america ? a guy who wear mask and bulletproof vest , attacked a soft target filled with civilians like malls, changed his visual profile aka clothing after he is done , and get out from the scene along with panicked civilians before 1st responder come barging in ?
ReplyDeleteAnders Behring Breivik is the perpetrator of the 2011 Norway attacks. On 22 July 2011, he bombed government buildings in Oslo, killing eight people. He then killed 69 more people, mostly teenagers, in a mass shooting at a Workers' Youth League (AUF) camp on the island of Utøya. In August 2012 he was convicted of mass murder, causing a fatal explosion, and terrorism.
Is it totally implausible?
ReplyDelete9/11 was totally predicted, about 10 years before it happened. A guy wrote a document about crashing a passenger airline into a government building. That guy was the late Tom Clancy and the book was Debt of Honour. For 10 years, the notion of a passenger plane becoming a cheap cruise missile was deemed as a work of fiction.
So what am I saying? You're "scenario", I don't care whether you thought of it whilst you were drunk, smashed, stoned or up-to-me-eyeballs-with-magic-mushrooms, if no one is going to pay attention or listen out then it's worth nothing. Any scenario, no matter how stupid it may sound, can/will happen. The magic word for this to happen (or not) is "luck". Luck on the perpetrators that no one saw them coming and/or luck on the protectors to see/hear or smell them coming.
The m0r0n who did the 2014 Sydney (Australia) attack had luck. He was "lucky" our justice system protects the guilty by NOT locking him up. (Just to note, he's neither an "extremist" nor was he a "devout Muslim". He was just a plain nutcase. His "religious belief", if one would like to call it that, is so out-of-this-friggin'-world, AQ and ISIS would say, "Uh dude, you're too extreme".) He had "luck" to purchase a shotgun from the criminal organization the police didn't know. Someone approved a gun license even though he had criminal records. He was taken off the "watch list" because security agencies deemed him as "all talk". The Australian security agency, which has taken a big chunk out of our yearly Federal budget since 2001, failed and two innocent people paid for their lives.
Oklahoma bombing was done by a "lone wolf". How many investigations were conducted and they saw it coming? Someone managed to purchase a sizeable amount of fertilizer and diesel and no one ask "Duh, why so much? Are you building a bomb or something?".
No offense to Americans but for years people have the notion of "it can't happen here in CONUS".
One of the reason is the lack of human intelligence and the over-reliance of technology to replace the lack of human intelligence. I, personally, do not believe in the BS that technology is to "fill the gap" in the lack of HUMINT.
Anyone here, other than the locals, who flew El Al? How many times have El Al been hijacked? How many? Some say once and some will say three.
The warning flags were there dancing-naked-in-front of security agencies and they didn't know what to do. No common sense. Everything has to be "proceedures".
You're raising some interesting points mark and I think the scenario that Sol has put together, although it may sound extreme to some readers, cannot be totally discounted. Why something like this hasn't happened is because US Intel has really got their act together after 9/11.
DeleteBut for Intel or sécurité forces the difficult thing is that they have to foil every attempt in order to look efficient, the terrorists only need to get through a loophole once ... And that's ususally what happens. Attacks succeed because someone f*ed up somewhere or because there has been a security or Intel lapse somewhere. That's why it is so important to learn from each new attack and adapt to an evolving threat.
I don't think money is really a big issue. AQMI was said at one point to have over a $100 million dollars and ISIS rakes in a cool million or 2 a day with oil wells,etc.....these organizations almost all run some kind of scam, hostages taking is very popular and lucrative, drug and cigarettes smuggling operation, diamonds, oil,etc.....
ReplyDeleteExplosive can be stolen, home made,etc.....reportedly Paris terrorists had even an RPG! Not that hard to see a scenario where the bad guys connect with Mexican drug cartels for intel, help for insertion inside the USA, weapons,etc.....
Could the scenario work if you steal some fuel trucks? Just the other day when I was pumping gas, the big fuel truck pulled in at the local Circle K. It's just one driver and I'm sure with some surveillance, could you steal one or 2 of them the same day of the attack? Probably isn't that hard to do and execute.....drive it into a police station, lob a grenade, it might not be as good as C4 but it should work, if nothing else, will scare the crap out of the cops......
Last but not least, who says it's just a bunch of guys with beards:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/child-suicide-bomber-kills-least-16-nigerias-boko-haram-heartland-n283711
Can you imagine a few kids going to school, field trip, mall with a back pack that was giving to them by Uncle Ahmed?
Offtopic: in Ru-internet rumors go that Shiah militia in Iraq got American AVs
ReplyDeletehttps://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/15510/9814836.5a/0_1205fb_54fa62f8_L.jpg
it looks like to be Hesbollah flag on Abrams MBT
offtopic:
ReplyDeleteinfo pic about CV9035 in Baltic
http://riigikaitse.postimees.ee/3034533/jalavae-lahingumasin-cv9035nl-mkiii
Ex-Dutch CV9035NL, 44. Estonia is also interested with surplus PzH2000 also from Dutch.
DeleteOfftopic:
DeletePan, it looks like full scale battle in Donbass were begun. Locals from Donbass and Gorlovka informed about heavy firing and large military columns moving today (active fire was started several days ago, but now is the culmination).
Yep, Polish gov evacuate everyone he can from that region today. There was a group of Polish descents there and we propose to take them to Poland. They say that the situation was very tense in last days, the "new" separatists appear, well feed, many new weapons... there are not too many "local" separatist left, most of them are dead or "walk away" and those new replace them.
DeleteMore to come, as Solomon likes to say.
DeleteWhat if they have different teams 1,2 and 3 on different states, and acting at the same time?
ReplyDeleteExample : Group A teams at state X, Group B at state Y, Group C at state Z.
About the costs, 500k? 1 million?
And they don't to spend anything with communication, just turn on the TV and as soon as the first attack is on the news, the next team strikes.
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