If this is true then two things are happening. The first is that Russia is going from covertly to overtly supplying the Rebels. That alone is ominous. The second is that this is crazy in a handbag. Who would think that Russia would have that many serviceable T-34 tanks in inventory! But the thought that WW2 level armor protection is a sought after commodity in a modern conflict should be stunning.
Never ignore the value of armor protection and shock value.
UPDATED: One of the readers pointed out that Putin proposed the following via USOSCE website.
President Putin proposed a cease-fire and a withdrawal of weapons exceeding 100 mm in caliber from a defined area.The largest gun mounted on the T-34 was, if I remember correctly, a 85mm gun. These tanks would fall in line with his proposal. The people that posted this video and the Russians who commented on it believe that these tanks are headed to Ukraine. I agree with them. As crazy as it might sound, these vehicles are in line with Putin's plan. Funny. The "crazy" Russian seems to have a game plan while the US and EU are lost in the woods.
Fear
ReplyDeleteNeither side can really afford losses of quality kit.
Ukraine has been able to steam roller the rebels with armoured brigades because if Russia splats one, it can't be replaced.
Russia now faces the same threat.
Some of its newest tanks would be wildly effective, but, if the US starts slipping in modern ATGMs and 'advisors', well, how many T90-AMs can it afford to lose and not replace?
A tank is a tank, if you support it with infantry it can still support them with protected machine gun and large cannon fire. I still wouldn't especially want to try to withstand a hit from that cannon in most IFV, or fight that and its supporting dirt teams with anything less than a Dragon. You could kill it with Lots of stuff but if its properly supported and you can't standoff attack it, it still gets to shoot at you with 76mm(i think, can't remember?) and coax
DeleteThe Javelin is worth more than the T-34 is and after the Stinger fear of the 1980s/90s will not be issued to any -ski with a need. It will have to be deployed by SOF 'advisors' under numbered usage conditions. Which means it will not be deployed.
DeleteThe Dragon is retired and likely motor/electronics expired for a weapon which was worthless when new. Milan or Eryx would be your best choices here for cheap SACLOS weapons and neither would be a sure thing against any tank with modern (Kontak/Kaktus level) ERA.
I would be amazed if the Russians still had working ammunition for those guns. Anything period is going to be more dangerous to the users than the enemy (both for explosive risk and for dud fuse reasons).
The ASU-85 is worthless for an offensive Maneuver War by small mobile groups. Russia would be better off sending some technicals with AT-4/5 launchers in the back to using this crap. About the only good thing I can say here is that the T-34 chassis has decent legs and the ability to fight in both snow and Rasputitsa periods. But then again, so does every Russian tank.
Having said this, you know you're in trouble when a BMP-3 would be a better tank killer and _superior protected platform_ than those WWII MBT are and your liege state will not send an IFV to your nascent pro-Russian homeland.
Russia doesn't need to send WWII relics when she still has literal boat loads of fairly modern T-55AD and similar from Cold War naval infantry stocks.
Putin must be taking it in the ear from his oligarchs on the economy to lowball his Ukrainian Rus like this.
Come on Poles, buy Carl Gustavs from Sweden and transfer them to Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteHighly unlikely, up till now the Russians have shipped in hundreds of T-72Bs, T-64s, and even some T-80s. There are certainly still depots filled with these types of vehicles that can be brought back into service and shipped to the separatists. (Though a lot of the T-72Bs have actually be stripped from active units.)
ReplyDeleteThere is no reason for such legacy units such as T-34-85M and Su-100s for to be brought out of what will have been extremely long term storage and reconditioned to the point they can be operated. It is more probable that this train is the result of an old depot being cleared out and contents being sent for scrapping.
If they are truly near the border with Ukraine, it could even be that the depot is being cleared for use as staging point for more modern armour to be shipped in.
Yea, this makes more sense than anything else.
DeleteIt could also be that we're wrong and that the Russians aren't supplying the rebels. There's been a lot of talk about Russia supplying the rebels but seemingly no-one is that sure what has been given to them. There was a Reuters report a few days ago that suggested that guns and rockets had been transferred but the only mention of tanks was a US report saying that the numbers of armoured vehicles supplied was about 20. The report went on to say that because of this rebels were angry at Moscow's inaction.
DeleteIf Russia was supplying them with more modern vehicles on a large scale then I'd have expected a lot more evidence, thus I don't think that they are. As such I think that there's every chance that these T-34s are being prepared for use, old tanks are stil better than no tanks.
i'm not sure of that Scot.
Deletethe US military and other forces around the world are basically conducting psyops against their civilian populations to gain support for their actions. they're well aware of the implications of a war in Europe and how unpopular that would be. the US public is ready right now to raise the drawbridges and let the world burn. news of active Russian participation in Ukraine would pay badly in Russia AND the US. so its almost like a gentleman's agreement has been reached by both sides to downplay the reality of the situation.
I guess that could also be the case, I was more thinking that there was a gentleman's agreement on both sides not to supply equipment since if one side did so then the other would match it.
DeleteActive Russian involvement in Ukraine would strengthen the resolve of the Russian opposition but would also have the same effect on Putin's, the Russians aren't particularly anti-war either so the effects might not be that severe for them, certainly less than the effect on America.
Scot -- the attention and focus should NOT be whether or not Ukraine forces should have the right to match the foreign-supplied rockets and artillery sent to the Kremlin-back separatists side... and if so, to what extent there should be some hypothetical transparent formula to determine how each side is precisely being supplied, so as a fair and equitable 'counter-force' can be deployed, etc. Please.
DeleteThere needs to be maximal diplomatic pressure on Kremlin to stop all rogue and official (if there is indeed official) support and supply to the extremist separatist forces, unilaterally, and to implore an immediate cease-fire to the current militant-separation-war solution! The militant-separatist-solution must be replaced with a negotiated political solution for the future of a restructured, co-existing, sovereign Ukraine. Period.
I'll say it again... It's not in Russia's interest to (formally) invade or give arms to the rebels in Ukraine. Because they destabilized Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a US pawn in a proxy war with Russia. Instead of Ukraine vs. Russia, the US has to deal with a messy civil war in Ukraine instead. For Russia to invade Ukraine formally would be to give the US exactly what it wants. Which is why they won't do it.
Deleteyour theory falls on its face for one very important reason.
Deletethe US, EU and Russia are all having to deal with a messy Russian civil war. additionally while i've not tried to take sides in this mess, we cannot forget that Russia in essence seized Ukrainian territory.
its not my intent to place blame. instead i want to see this mess put back in its bottle. trying to figure out who's at fault or attempting to assign blame to one party or the other at this stage in the game is irrelevant. we all need to look ahead, look at worse case scenarios and both sides need to work to avoid them.
one last thing. if Russia were to invade Ukraine then who would stop them? the US is stretched worldwide. the EU is passive and inward looking. the Poles would be upset and itching for a fight but thats really about it. everyone else would just not give a fuck.
Till now we only heard Ukrainian allegations but never any proof Russia is sending in armor let alone hundrets of tanks . Do you realize there are few or no western reporters on the front line and only news you are getting is being spoon feed to news outlets and masses.
DeleteNo one is sending in T34s ,these are preparations for mayday parade.
There is concrete visual evidence that a lot of T-72B tanks have been shipped from Russia to the Ukrainian rebels. In this blog the author has spent a long time correlating social media photos of vehicles on transporters in Russia with those seen in action by the separatists in Donbas. He estimates that a minimum of 120 such vehicles have been supplied, this is without counting the T-64s that have likely been sent or more recently the groups of T-80s spotted crossing the border.
DeleteThe results are conclusive and irrefutable, Russian tanks, often from active service units have been supplied as aid.
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fsled-vzayt.livejournal.com%2F663.html&edit-text=&act=url
The Russian Opsec here is actually really bad, they just rely on the smokescreen from their tame media sources and legion of pro-putin tankies to obscure the truth.
Sol, I'm not placing blame either, I'm just pointing out the strategic situation. The US wants a full war between Russia and Ukraine, so that Putin is too preoccupied to interfere with movement on Syria and Iran. Remember that this is a global chess game.
DeleteBecause the US wants it so badly (as evidenced by the chicken-little statements we hear every 4-6 weeks), Putin would be a fool to invade. He's already got the most strategically important part of Ukraine (Crimean Ports). All he has to do now is stoke the fires of civil war with some (but not too much) military aid to the rebels. It's in HIS best interest to keep the US frustrated and distracted in Ukraine for as long as possible, so that we're not going after Russian interests elsewhere.
So yes, you'll see equipment dribbling in to keep the rebels just strong enough to stalemate Kiev. But Putin isn't Hitler. He's much colder and smarter than that. Ruin his own country to free some ethnic Russians in Ukraine? Fat chance.
Doubt it. I think it is likely a depot be cleared out OR perhaps something for a movie. the Russians have been making lots of WWII movies lately.
ReplyDeleteWhy send T35s when there are T55s and T62s rusting out there. Some reactive armor with updated sights/radios and those older tanks would be far better than some old T35. Where would they even get 85mm ammo?
Excellent analysis, Paralus... but your very last comment was very interesting too. Apparently the 'on again, off again' cease-fire was/is based on condition that 100mm and higher mm guns will be removed from the front lines? Perhaps an armored, mobile 85mm munition system could be a highly strategic asset to have on hand (as leverage), be it in E Ukraine eventually, or elsewhere in future??
DeleteThey are T34/85 tanks and also Su85 tank destroyers. Time will tell what they are going to do with them but I'm with Solomon on this one their going to Ukraine. In the first round of fighting in the City Kostiantinovka. Supporters of federalization repaired a IS-3 tank standing on a pedestal as a monument to World War II. Surprisingly, ammunition for machine guns and artillery shells they have not changed since the Second World War and are commercially available. I think from memory the Ukrainians recaptured it but it shows that these old WW2 tanks can be still used even in modern warfare. My bet is they will be used defensively more than Offence. See vid below.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Z4IOQWNKY
Possibly associated with Victory Day parade (WW2) preparations
ReplyDeletePossibly associated with Victory Day parade (WW2) preparations
ReplyDelete"Possibly associated with Victory Day parade (WW2) preparations"
ReplyDeleteMore likely then a scrapping operation. if they were being scrapped, I'd imagine that the tanks would be torched and ripped apart on sight. cut them up into chunks and dump them into bulk hopper cars.
Its still possible that they're being sent to Ukraine. I bet the rebels would have an easier time using and maintaining the older simpler stuff, especially if they have little to no intent on driving too far. Mobile pillbox, park and shoot. Another good use would be as decoys and ATGM magnets. Give the Ukrainians something to waste their ammo on.
Have you ever seen tank scraping ,it its done at specialized plants equiped to handle that kind of work.
Deletenever have. your point?
Delete"Possibly associated with Victory Day parade (WW2) preparations"
ReplyDeleteMore likely then a scrapping operation. if they were being scrapped, I'd imagine that the tanks would be torched and ripped apart on sight. cut them up into chunks and dump them into bulk hopper cars.
Its still possible that they're being sent to Ukraine. I bet the rebels would have an easier time using and maintaining the older simpler stuff, especially if they have little to no intent on driving too far. Mobile pillbox, park and shoot. Another good use would be as decoys and ATGM magnets. Give the Ukrainians something to waste their ammo on.
These tanks also add a layer of plausible deniability. "We got this from a war museum. We found that one in the woods. That old thing? We dug it out of a junk yard. We don't have hundreds of these things, we have two really photogenic tanks that seem to be everywhere." When America needs to arm a proxy, we lose a crate of M-16s from Vietnam The Russians lose a regiment of T-34s.
ReplyDeleteThis is a interesting theory if it is indeed true.
ReplyDeleteThat would be a ridiculous, "lord of war"-esque loophole, but expect it to be exploited.
But still, there is no reason for T34s. The T55 has a 100mm gun (exceeding 100mm, right?), and there are tens of thousands still in service. They would probably be suitable enough for the conflict too.
This entire cluster is turning into a low-tech slugfest. The kind of nastiness nuclear tech rendered largely obsolete among major powers.
The Russians are famous for never throwing away ANY kit. I'm sure they found a warehouse full of these things and figured they'd try and get some use out of them. Wouldn't want to be in one when an RPG-7 hits though.
ReplyDeleteMan you are dreaming ,get real no one is deploying T34s as there is plenty ,we are talking 10-20k T55 around and yet you do not see any on the front.
ReplyDeleteRussian involvment is way over blown by Kiev every time things go bad for them ,yet there is always great lack of proof and amazing readiness in the west to take that PR for a fact ,as long as that serves the purpose.
I have no doubts Russia supplys rebels, provides intel and key personel but that doesn't go into thusands of people and hundrets of tanks. There is no need for that Ukrainian army is very poorly leed and poorly supplied with questionable training and morale.
its my theory and the theory of several people (Russians i might add) that commented on the video. even if i'm wrong and i don't deny that i could be, why are you so angrily denying the possibility. what nation are you from?
DeleteMy view comes from actually knowing the old WW2 armor very intimately and even tough T34 is simple as it gets its harder to get going than t55 gen tanks and less lethal than BMP1 ,ammo is not that hard ot get but fire control is more or less point and shoot for point blank use ,clutch needs frequent enough replacment considering its 70y old parts are harder to get than for any soviet era tank and lack of modern coms makes it only marginaly effective in combat , it has more armor than BMP but as ATGM , RPG and artillery is the main threat it brings nothing to the table just uses lots of resources.Plus you have generations of men trained (Ukraine and russia had/have conscript armies) on T55 ,T62 ,T64 and T72 but no one on T34 again diminishing effectivness
DeleteI am form a NATO and EU member country.As a scholar of defence studies by trade. I try to use common sense instead of buying into all the hype. You do realise that much of the infor comming form the mainstream media has to be taken with a degree of caution as they do not have any people on the ground(except VICE) so where do you think does the info come from ? ,russian media is no better but at least you have 24/7 video material comming in from news teams on the front line off course they are presenting their narative but still you have at least some glimpse.
I think they will be used in Ukraine look at the last 25 years hell even since the end of WW2 you will always find someone using WW2 tanks hell during the Russian Invasion of Afghanistan the ragheads use an old Ft17 tank from WW1 I shit you not. The last use of a T34/85 was in this Ukranian conflict where Rebels took one of a plith and used it here is a history of the T34/85 below post WW2 and a vid of a T34/85 used in a rebellion in Budapest. Enjoy and I hope you learn something. A weapon is better than no weapon.
Deletehttp://rbth.com/defence/2014/07/07/the_t34_tank_80_years_old_and_still_spoiling_for_a_fight_37987.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohz9NzpkrQ8
The T-34 is useless in the era of RPG-7 and urban combat.
ReplyDeleteNot unless the T34/85 is supported by infantry and the T34/85 sees the guy with the RPG7 first its all on how you use a tank.
DeleteThey can be used as decoys. Radar cant make a difference between T-34 and T-72.
ReplyDeletedecoys for what ,Ukrainian military has zero AF sorties over ATO in past 3 months.
Delete