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| Image via Bantay Spratly showing the remains of the 44 Police Officers ambushed by terrorist forces. |
If your focus is solely on China and its dealings with its neighbors then US bases in the Philippines makes perfect sense.
If you're paying attention to the issues inside that country (economic, social and political) and then add that governments fight against the MILF (no, not mothers you'd like to fuck...I'm talking about a group of hardcore terrorists) then it makes you wonder if anyone has addressed force protection issues for our people there.
Why is this a concern?
Because it was reported on Monday that 44 Elite Police Officers walked into an ambush that had MILF participation...even though the government signed a treaty allowing that terrorist group to establish a state within the Philippines that would be governed by Islamic law.
The Philippines that the old skool Marines knew is gone.
When our bases there are up and running all we'll be doing is walking out of one insurgency into another.
Read about the ambush here and here.
But this Insurgency isnt something new. You have been facing this for almost a century now.
ReplyDeleteuh no. this is an Islamic based insurgency. this is new.
DeleteSol, are you making a distinction between the Moro nationals the US has fought in the past and the MILF as it exists today?
Deletei'm trying to. historically i've never read that the insurgents we fought in the past labeled as Muslim extremist. MILF falls into that category. it could easily be just a difference in definitions but historians of earlier eras did not hesitate to label movements that had either Nazi, Communist, racial or religious backing. if the Moro nationals were in reality Islamic fundamentalist then i think (don't know for sure) that it would have been highlighted for all to see.
DeleteSol, just because they were not called that does not mean that they were not Islamic extremists, it's only after 9/11 did the western media come up with all the fancy terms.
DeleteThe MNLF/MILF has been around since the 70s, even before the US's 1st withdrawal from the Philippines.
You didn't hear much of them then did you?
Even MNLF was overshadowed in the early days, by ASG.....the Islamic 'OGs'.....before they became more criminal than jihadist. Now they've pledged allegiance to IS, in the hopes of regaining some of their street cred.
DeleteWas the insurgency we fought from 1898 to WW2 Islamic? Don't know but that is often held up as a model of a successful counter-insurgency along with the British Malayasian Crisis. If Islamic insurgents are still a threat, maybe we need to reasses our previous proclamation if victory because we may not have aided the right government to ensure stability.
ReplyDeletei don't really know. i never heard it described as such though. as far as being a successful counter insurgency i beg to differ.
Deletequite honestly i don't think there is any such thing. what you have are nation building projects that eventually buy out the insurgents but never a really successful counter insurgency. i mean lets be honest. we won Iraq and Afghanistan but lost the nation building that military officials lied and called counter insurgency operations.
Surf, it may have been successful then but since the 70s, this new lot seems to be more of a pest. They have been trying to get rid of the MILF for decades with no luck.
DeleteLet me get this straight, the government gave them a piece of land to them, and they still made acts of terrorism after that?
ReplyDeleteAny news about the hostages? Is this group related to other know groups?
The Philippine National Police (PNP) sent an entire battalion (over 300 men) to hunt for the target. The target was being sheltered by the MILF. An entire battalion. Someone talked. It wasn't just a simple "ambush". They were massacred because someone told the MILF they were coming, their composition and the amount of ammo they carried.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I've been telling people about Mindanao. If you think you couldn't buy the loyalty of an Afghan, then the muslims in Mindanao is worst.
Something I penned 4 years ago.
ReplyDelete"What I will bring to your attention is the presence of an inter theatre big lifter down where ChiComm sponsored ISI and VEVAK trained Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani & HizbAllah cells are at play. I know a great many think that some shit was going to go down in Argentina, however that really makes no sense. Argentina got done over a decade and a bit ago."
MILF is now a ChiComm run op.
By the way, looks like we are slowing things down with China in Pacific military exchanges. From WSJ:
Deletehttp://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-puts-china-military-exchange-on-hold-1422474327
Pentagon Pauses New Exchanges With China
The delay, which doesn’t affect existing military-to-military exchanges, reflects concerns among some U.S. politicians and military officials that an expansion of defense ties with Beijing over the past 18 months hasn’t stopped China from trying to enforce its territorial claims...
Rep. Randy Forbes (R., Va), said the Pentagon has been pushing military exchanges without clearly stating what they hope to achieve with the exchanges.
Mr. Forbes added that military exchanges with China risk sharing too much information, potentially including critical elements of U.S. military strategy. “It gives them a better understanding how we might react in a situation and so it may embolden them more,” he said
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ReplyDeleteI had a comment about operations performed in the Moro Gulf but after looking them up....there is no mention of them. So, the comment was deleted.
ReplyDeleteSuffice to say, we have damned near had a base in Zamboanga for over 14 years now...P3's, SEALs, Marines, "other entities".....
The US presence with the casing of JSOTF-P colors, will be less than what it has been since we ramped up OEF-P after 9/11. The basing agreements [still being negotiated] will have the US footprint on Phil bases.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the ambush, the PNP-SAF explicitly left the military out of the loop so as not to tip off MILF by leaks. As I understand it, BIFF has been sheltering the HVIs...and had pushed the PNP into MILF forces when the raid went south. Not saying that there wasn't coordinated action...but MILF is denying such and stands to lose what it hopes to gain with the Bangsamoro Basic Law agreement. I'm not sure torpedoing their endstate of a Muslim autonomous region would have been part of their strategy,
The Islamic insurgency in the Mindanao region is certainly not a new phenomenon.
Good post. The failed PNP operation has NOTHING to do with any incorrect assertion being made or assumed, that USG is hypothetically wanting to step up US operations against MILF! I think Solomon was off-base on that initial premise.
DeleteAnd on a side note, I met a former Philippine Marine Commander who was intimately involved with the RP-MILF truce negotiations. He had some very interesting stories to tell, some involving the US of days past.
But there are most likely indeed some rogue elements which are not holding to the cease-fire today and arguably 'terrorist' sub-components which could absolutely play havoc longer-term on strategic level attacks, both in-country and even internationally. Very tragic and complicated situation all around, no doubt. Respects.
I question the planner of this op.. from the information it seem highly probable this unit never expected such heavy resistance. These guys are trained primarily as small unit operations , not infantry maneuver element.. thus most likely they hit a hornet nest and got pinned down by heavy weapons including mortars (as a vietnam era SEAL veteran said, 5.56 are no match for HMG)..
ReplyDeleteThis is not the first time the filipino wasted their special units on badly planned operations.. they lost many soldiers because of deficiency in planning and logistic..
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/dozens-of-philippine-commandos-didnt-have-to-die-c4d1cb735be9
During the operation, around 400 officers from the Special Action Force—an elite unit within the Philippine National Police—neared the town of Mamasapano on the southern island of Mindanao when snipers hiding in coconut trees started shooting.
The gunmen pinned down the police for 12 hours. The commandos ran low on ammunition and called the army for reinforcements, which didn’t arrive. The rebels shelled the trapped officers with rockets and mortar fire.
By the end of the fighting, at least 44 police officers were dead. Photographs depicted several dead officers clustered in tall grasses—one with a wound to his head. A survivor said the rebels closed in and killed the wounded soldiers.
WTF??
ReplyDeleteThe Taliban not a Terrorist group but an "armed insurgency"? What game is being played now?
I saw this as well.....but given the stated [and pursued] goals of the QST, they fit the very definition of an insurgency; Do they not?
Deletein that case the stated and pursued goals of every terrorist organization can then be made to look like an Insurgent. After all.....they all want to form a Govt. They all want to enforce a particular type of law and order.
DeleteFair point, but where is the line between terrorism and insurgency? Aside from our inclination to support 'insurgencies' and oppose 'terrorism'?
DeleteSingh whats your take on this one , propaganda BS or a touch of reality
Delete"Pakistan has officially disclosed that the Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif handed over to the Americans during his fortnight-long visit to the United States in November “vital evidence of Indian involvement in subversive activities in Pakistan by using Afghan soil.”
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/01/27/indians-to-take-a-walk-in-hindu-kush/
Go to Small War Journal....or was it the Long War Journal. Search "Pakistan Mortar" and then you will see what "qualifies as evidence" in Pakistan. Search for other articles on those sites refering to Pakistan claiming Indian influence in Balochistan and Afghanistan and each and every other trouble Pakistan has.
DeleteThe police didn't obey the rules and follow procedure, and they paid the price. (U.S. police take notice.)
ReplyDeletenews report:
MANILA — President Benigno S. Aquino III of the Philippines tried to distance himself Wednesday from a botched counterterrorism raid that left 44 elite police officers dead on Sunday and jeopardized a landmark peace deal with rebels in the country’s south. During a nationally televised speech, Mr. Aquino said he did not specifically authorize about 400 police officers from an elite commando unit to conduct the raid early Sunday in a remote part of the island of Mindanao to capture a top terrorism suspect.
Bacon, that is called "cover your ass" bullshit. Do you think Obama signs every arrest warrant in the US? No. These things happen at the lower levels, so he can obviously wash his hands off the whole thing and say "Not my fault".
DeleteWrong. This is called the president saying the police screwed up, as they did.
DeleteAnd if they had caught the terrorist suspects, you won't even be commenting, much less saying it was wrong. Which just reinforces the "success forgives everything" theme.
DeleteAnd if the moon were made of green cheese, we could eat it. So what? Blogs exist to comment on what happened, not to construct ridiculous scenarios. If you take the time to read the reports you will see that the operation could not have succeeded.
DeleteThere are no plans for US bases in Philippines. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) facilitates the enhanced rotational presence of U.S. forces. There is a constitutional provision which prohibits the establishment of “foreign military bases… or facilities” in the country.
ReplyDeleteThis incident reminds me of the planning phase of operation Nifty Package, where the Commodore Sandoz disregard the advice of his experienced officer SEAL Mike Walsh and implement a 3 SEAL platoon assault on Punta Paitilla Airport. the bad plan by inexperienced officers lead to a debacle of SEAL Team 4 assaulter who encountered fierce resistance from PDF.
ReplyDeletemeanwhile , the other group successfully execute their mission in classic combat diver 101, blowing noriega's boat using only 4 divers , no casualties.
Just because these guys are trained commandoes , doesnt mean you can forgo proper planning..