via Breaking Defense...
To that end, he and his peeps at Heritage performed an open-source analysis of the abilities of each service to meet that standard. All but — quite surprisingly — the Air Force are ranked as “marginal,” which isn’t really marginal but means that the service “would exactly meet a two-MRC force size.” Here are the scores with his assessments:Read the whole thing here.
Marine Corps as “Marginal.” The Corps’ strongest suit was in readiness, but even here there are problems as stated by the Corps itself. While the fighting competency of the service is superb, it is hampered by old equipment, troubled replacement programs for its key ground vehicles, and a shrinking force. The progress it has made in replacing its rotary-wing aircraft is a notable bright spot in its modernization portfolio.
I want to emphasize..."hampered by old equipment, troubled replacement programs for its key ground vehicles"....
The AAV replacement issues are becoming mainstream. Upgrading (a bit) existing vehicles and buying new ones in the middle to end of the next decade is NOT the answer.
Think about this, in a political sphere dominated by risk-aversion, their PROPOSED ground combat force will be at best, PARTIALLY protected from IED's (ACV, maybe but not likely, JLTV) and the force will be almost completely incapable of its own dedicated mission, forced entry from the sea.
ReplyDeleteEven with the 'factory reset' the AAV7 will remain:
1) Underpowered and slow as shit in the water.
2) Massively under-protected from all threats...IED's to basic kinetic energy weapons, doesn't matter.
3) Horribly outgunned. (As is, the USMC's vehicles will not be able to protect and support infantry, or operate offensively against current and planned threat forces.)
At this point, there is really only one practical option (aside from hopeful options like fielding the EFV), should some common sense start hitting the procurement desks and that would be to follow one of the older ACV plans and field an entire ACV force and deal with developing a tracked vehicle later.
Yes it would absolutely suck: you would have to deal with fewer Marines on an assault, you would likely have to split up squads, and you would still be slow as shit in the water with little to no firepower, not even mentioning having to rely on wheels for all mobility. But at this point, its all they have in the way of actually upgrading protection while having a chance at further upgrades later. They simply can't dick around with industry anymore, the wheeled ACV is here to stay.
It is truly terrible, but that's simply the layout of it all. Furthermore, the lethality and mobility problems of the ACV can actually be remedied by upgrades or more common sense program requirements. On the other hand, the AAV7 cannot have its problems solved by simple changes or upgrades, it would take a gargantuan upgrade and redesign process and survivability would still be in question.
I'm afraid the only thing that will put feilding a new vehicle in high gear will be another major conflict in a region other than the middle east against a pier force or one using a pier forces weapon systems. When surviving shell splinters from artillery and more advanced anti-armor weapons, not to mention armor itself comes into play, that would be the wake up call and it will cost Marine lives. Lets hope it doesn't come to that but look at our history after most major conflicts.
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